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Author Topic: Potential shortage of bitcoins?  (Read 409 times)
davis196
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October 16, 2020, 12:11:32 PM
 #21

There's no sch thing as shortage or deficit when it comes to Bitcoin.If the price goes up,more HODLers will be convinced to sell their BTC,therefore market shortage cannot be created.
A hypothetical market shortage or deficit can be created only if there are no active sellers on the market,which means that the BUY orders on all crypto trading platforms cannot be fulfilled at any market price.


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October 16, 2020, 12:14:18 PM
 #22

Not sure of how a "shortage" of bitcoin is possible. Maybe I'm completely misunderstanding his definition of "shortage", but I'm pretty sure there will always be people selling bitcoin. The question is, at what price?

Maybe a shortage of bitcoins being sold at a certain x% from the current price, that would be possible, especially for OTC traders, they see that there are investors with deep pockets ready to buy in bulk, they know that those can't go directly to exchange as larger amounts would trigger a sharp jump in price so they are putting some pressure by raising their price too much compared to traditional ways.

Indeed it's a bit of a far-fetched scenario but it can happen temporarily for a short period as sooner or later the price will move in an area where more people are inclined to sell for, there are still a lot of holders that are aiming for $ gains. Not everyone can wait 5 or 10 years, I would prefer to buy a 4series convertible when I'm in my 30-40 rather than affording a Lambo when I'm 70.

Grayscale buys almost all the mined bitcoins and even more. How many of these 900 a day hit the free market?

900BTC a day, 90 days, 12500$, that makes around 1 billion while the entire record!! investment in Grayscale in Q3 and all their products was 1.2 billion, "with 57% of investment coming from multi-product investors in 3Q20"  andnot considering premium for fresh coins. No, they don't buy nowhere near all the newly mined bitcoins.

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October 16, 2020, 12:36:41 PM
 #23

There's no sch thing as shortage or deficit when it comes to Bitcoin.If the price goes up,more HODLers will be convinced to sell their BTC,therefore market shortage cannot be created.
(...)
Agree, just like what stompix said above.
What I really believe is, if there are buying Bitcoins, there also people selling it. For me, shortage and price got connection here. There will be always a Bitcoin that for sale, all we should need is a fund for able to buy it. That's why a lot of people telling that we should start to accumulate Bitcoins now beause it may be expensive soon.





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October 16, 2020, 12:48:44 PM
 #24

Many people where predicting that bitcoin price will fall during the lockdown that convince some investors quitting from bitcoin businessto litecoin business, thinking the new project will be more profitable than bitcoin.
Bitcoin is a potential in profit making but if you fail to follow their instruction in the market you will find it difficult to make something good out of it. I think bitcoin is not a potential of shortage if you play your role well in your investment.
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October 16, 2020, 01:29:24 PM
 #25

There is no shortage of Bitcoin because even though there are many Bitcoin holders or large investors who buy Bitcoin there is no downside, because there are still exchanges to buy Bitcoin and Bitcoin will still be there when someone buys it. So if Bitcoin is hard to get, it doesn't mean Bitcoin will have a potential shortage or won't exist anymore, Bitcoin will always exist, but there is a possibility that the price will be even higher if Bitcoin becomes difficult to obtain.


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October 16, 2020, 02:16:56 PM
 #26

There is no shortage of Bitcoin because even though there are many Bitcoin holders or large investors who buy Bitcoin there is no downside, because there are still exchanges to buy Bitcoin and Bitcoin will still be there when someone buys it. So if Bitcoin is hard to get, it doesn't mean Bitcoin will have a potential shortage or won't exist anymore, Bitcoin will always exist, but there is a possibility that the price will be even higher if Bitcoin becomes difficult to obtain.
them experts are so smart that they brainstorm of all the possibilities and they always end up discovering issues but for us common people we are just chilling , if we look on the picture , there is no way we are in short .you already explained why and As much as we people can buy on exchange , there's also people that are selling their btc to the exchange  . What happens is like a give and take scenario . There is no way that people will prolong thier coins in a form of holding , that will be impossible because humans are greedy for profits .

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October 16, 2020, 03:09:44 PM
Last edit: October 16, 2020, 09:19:36 PM by tranthidung
 #27

I think it is what people and news talked before the recent halving.  Cheesy

The undeniable fact is BTC jumped into its deflational phase since the latest halving. The left BTC to be mined is ~ 2.48216 million and bitcoin will become more scarcely over time (more bitcoin will be lost), price will increase because of all net effects (less supply and assumed same demand). Not yet mention about policy and adoption changes.

If taking into consideration potential lost BTC ~ 3.9499732, the left BTC accounts for 14.56% of Estimated BTC in supply (with deduction of lost BTC). The amount of lost BTC will increase over time, I believe. People lost their private keys daily.

The % of potential lost BTC is taken from https://hodlwave.com/#. It is ~ 21.65% in March 2020 for above 2+ years old UTXOs.

It is a raw calculation because I can not retrieve data from hodlwave.com. When I click on Export to plotly.com and copy & paste data from the table, I got only data up to 2011. It will be better if can get full data (even from third party website) and get an forecast on Annual lost BTC.

|
Total Supply
|
Total Circulating Supply
|
Total-Left to Mine
|
Estimated lost BTC
|
Estimated Total Supply
|
% of Total left / Estimated Circulating Supply
|
|
21
|
18.51784
|
2.48216
|
3.9499732
|
17.050027
|
14.56%
|
* Figures are in million, except for percent variable.


Impacts from institutional investments
From my calculations, all those companies in the list account for 3.3% of total circulating supply, 4.22% of Estimated Real Circulating Supply (lost BTC are deducted), and 29.8% of 24h trading volume. If they dump all of their BTC in one day, price will be dumped to the hell but fortunately they did not and they might never do that.

Details can be read there

Some charts for Grayscale investments

https://grayscale.co/insights/grayscale-q3-2020-digital-asset-investment-report/?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=2020_q3_investment_report





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October 16, 2020, 03:23:55 PM
 #28

Well for me, it could be possible because as investors keep on hoarding Bitcoins the circulating supply of coins are shrinking as weak handed people keep on selling them while institutions are buying them like there is no tomorrow. Maybe shortage also means too hard to accumulate due to the skyrocketing price because supply is getting scarce. People who are selling Bitcoins are just fractions compared to investors buying in huge amount like thousands of it from exchanges. And there are also other reasons to consider. I know these institutions have plans and we'll never know. Maybe manipulation in the near future?

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October 16, 2020, 04:35:24 PM
 #29

Not sure of how a "shortage" of bitcoin is possible. Maybe I'm completely misunderstanding his definition of "shortage", but I'm pretty sure there will always be people selling bitcoin. The question is, at what price? Also assuming that there might be lot of people that are planning on selling at break-even prices(probably 17k-19k), a "shortage" might be a bit too farfetched at least in the mid-term.
I agree. I don't think a Bitcoin shortage is what's going on right now or what will be a problem soon. Those corporations buy, but if the price gets a lot higher, they're likely to sell. And many are fine with trading at a current price, so no problem. I do think that a shortage is possible in the future, though. Namely, if too many people want to use Bitcoin as money to pay for rather small purchases regularly, the scalability issues might make it impossible. But this is not likely to happen, and if the scalability thing is solved, people can focus on Satoshis (or theoretically they could even break down Satoshis is a single one costs a significant sum), and all this is very unlikely IMO.

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October 16, 2020, 04:37:07 PM
 #30

With more and more companies and institutions buying Bitcoin, in the short term I am sure Bitcoin will not experience a shortage.
Because there will be many people who want to sell Bitcoin, indeed most people use Bitcoin only for trading. Only a few keep Bitcoin
for long-term investments. What will happen is the possibility that the Bitcoin price will rise, but in the long run if a growing number of
companies and institutions buy Bitcoin, the potential for a shortage to occur. Because companies that have bought Bitcoin will not
immediately sell them again, will definitely be held for a long time, therefore a shortage will occur.

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October 16, 2020, 06:03:57 PM
 #31

I think there is no shortage of bitcoin in the market. Lot of people wants to hold bitcoin to get good earnings in future. Maybe lot of people have sell their bitcoin  last seven months ,due to face carona-19 & shortage of money that period. But my opinion is that there is no shortage of bitcoin yet.
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October 16, 2020, 06:12:29 PM
 #32

It sounds like a bullish news if it will certainly to happen (the shortage of bitcoins), once the supply will be overtaken by the demand then the bitcoin price will surely to move upward. In short, the bitcoin will become more valuable as the demand will continue to rise and it will only to stop once there is a big dump of bitcoins.

But I am sure that those whales are in the move of waking up the bull as it is more than 2 years already but we are not yet in the bull season and the bear season is already that long.
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October 16, 2020, 06:47:25 PM
 #33

How is that going to happen? I mean, there are fractions on coins with the lowest one being 1 satoshi. Now if "shortage" does occur, then the price is bound to go very high and in the case 1 satoshi might have a value of hundreds of dollars. In that case, wouldn't we all agree to make a  unit which is smaller than a satoshi (not an expert over here. So I am not sure if this is even possible)? Or people will start using altcoins. Or there might even be some alternative tokens or something that will be pegged to the price of bitcoin. Like they can exchange those tokens for bitcoins.
I am a bit confused though, buy shortage did you mean shortage in supply?

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October 18, 2020, 06:29:35 PM
Last edit: October 19, 2020, 03:24:10 PM by oprahwindfury
 #34

There are currently 18,519,500 bitcoins in existence.The maximum and total amount of bitcoins that can ever exist is 21 million.There are 2,480,500.0 bitcoins left to be mined.After that surely we call it a shortage but not that kind of shortage.it means the mining will be stopped but here are 21 M bitcoins still in crypto society.The people are investing and holding bitcoin right now surely they will sell some of them and even the big institutions  and this is a simple business strategy  to grow.So here is exactly nothing to worry about though it has time but but the delay will be profitable for the bitcoin.

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October 18, 2020, 06:41:30 PM
 #35



If holders are going to be hodling it for a very long time and some along the way lost it access maybe there will be a shortage. But its a good thing for traders as its price will also be incrementing due to demands. Institutions accumulating BTC is making Bitcoin look good that if it gets out in the media, it can really change the way people look at BTC positively unlike when its just on the news all because of illlegal drugs.

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October 18, 2020, 06:48:04 PM
 #36

Not sure of how a "shortage" of bitcoin is possible. Maybe I'm completely misunderstanding his definition of "shortage", but I'm pretty sure there will always be people selling bitcoin. The question is, at what price? Also assuming that there might be lot of people that are planning on selling at break-even prices(probably 17k-19k), a "shortage" might be a bit too farfetched at least in the mid-term.
I think that what they mean is that now coins that were up for sale are slowly being bought by whales that for the most part will keep them for the long term, but I do not see a problem with that, if a product becomes scarce then the price of that asset goes up, in a way this is similar to what happens on the art market, if a rich person buys many works of art by a famous painter as a consequence of this there are less paintings for the rest of the collectors and the price of the rest of the works of that particular artist go up.

This is completely natural and I do not see anything wrong with that, but I can understand why some people may be worried about this, it is also similar to the worries that there is not enough gold to shoulder all the economic activity of the world when in fact we have enough gold, gold will just have to reevaluate itself massively for that to happen.
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October 18, 2020, 08:55:06 PM
 #37



If holders are going to be hodling it for a very long time and some along the way lost it access maybe there will be a shortage. But its a good thing for traders as its price will also be incrementing due to demands. Institutions accumulating BTC is making Bitcoin look good that if it gets out in the media, it can really change the way people look at BTC positively unlike when its just on the news all because of illlegal drugs.
You're kinda right about the part where companies buying bitcoin can produce a positive image for the cryptocurrency industry. However, I don't see bitcoin's shortage coming in anytime soon. First of all, the 21 million total supply wouldn't dry out that easily, I mean, even if everyone buy themselves a bitcoin, there's going to be someone who'll sell the coins for fiat. Another is the fact that the coin is at a really high price right now, buying even a few would cost you a ton. So is shortage gonna come? Yeah eventually, will the institutions cause it? NO.

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October 19, 2020, 07:42:49 AM
 #38

I think the shortage created by the huge demand that is incoming from institutional investors will create a huge spike in the process in the coming months. That's the genius behind the idea of Bitcoin's limited supply.

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October 19, 2020, 02:38:20 PM
 #39

A lack of bitcoin is impossible because bitcoin is broken down to 100,000,000 satoshi. There are always people buying and selling Bitcoin, bitcoin's value is determined by demand. If people want to own Bitcoins at a good enough price, those who have withdrawn bitcoins from the exchanges will automatically load them back in to sell them.
That is the law of the market, besides Bitcoin in spot transactions, we also have other Bitcoin derivatives.

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October 19, 2020, 02:49:11 PM
 #40

There is no shortage of Bitcoin because even though there are many Bitcoin holders or large investors who buy Bitcoin there is no downside, because there are still exchanges to buy Bitcoin and Bitcoin will still be there when someone buys it. So if Bitcoin is hard to get, it doesn't mean Bitcoin will have a potential shortage or won't exist anymore, Bitcoin will always exist, but there is a possibility that the price will be even higher if Bitcoin becomes difficult to obtain.

I didn't get it when it comes to shortage of bitcoin, i was thinking that if this whales who have gotten a huge amount of bitcoin will surely just put that purchased bitcoin of them to a hodl system? Maybe its a no right, those whales are investors, wanting to generate a lot of profit than in their investment so those purchased crypto will only circulate in block market and just come and go to every investors. The prices may vary each time depend upon the movement of demand and supply of crypto in the market.

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