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Author Topic: Bitcoin Block Halving  (Read 389 times)
o_e_l_e_o
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October 27, 2020, 02:29:37 PM
Merited by ABCbits (1), tranthidung (1), mikeywith (1)
 #21

Again, the chart is taken from third party and its validity is unknown.
It's not that the validity of chart is doubtful; it's that you are using the wrong chart. Median confirmation time is not the same as median block time. The mempool being very full will push median confirmation time up while having zero effect on median block time. Conversely, the mempool being empty will drive the median confirmation time down while also having zero effect on the median block time.

A change in median block time due to faster or slower blocks will affect the median confirmation time, but a change in median confirmation time due to a larger or smaller mempool will have no affect on median block time.
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October 27, 2020, 06:52:49 PM
Merited by tranthidung (1)
 #22

Median confirmation time is not the same as median block time. The mempool being very full will push median confirmation time up while having zero effect on median block time.

I think tranthidung or anyone else for that matter should do a comparison between block time and confirmation time, theoretically, more transactions waiting for confirmation leads to higher transaction fees as users try to outbid one another,  higher fees make mining more profitable which leads to more hashrate and eventually faster block-finding rate, for example, the last block had 2.34BTC BTC in fees alone, that is 37% more profit than a block with no transactions.

Yesterday alone we had 111BTC in fees that's 1.4M USD out of the total 10.4M USD that were mined, which means one way or the other, 10% of the hashrate was there because of the fees, which also "could" mean that blocks were being found 10% faster than if we had a small number of transactions.

Now, this is only "theoretically" valid, but how does that apply in real life needs to be studied further.

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October 27, 2020, 07:10:35 PM
Last edit: October 28, 2020, 06:53:01 AM by LoyceV
Merited by tranthidung (1), mikeywith (1)
 #23

Yesterday alone we had 111BTC in fees that's 1.4M USD out of the total 10.4M USD that were mined, which means one way or the other, 10% of the hashrate was there because of the fees, which also "could" mean that blocks were being found 10% faster than if we had a small number of transactions.
Those 10% faster blocks can be "used" only once, so if this week miners buy 10% more hardware, it's already included in the hashrate 2 weeks from now. Of course, in reality the hashrate is changing gradually, but a higher Bitcoin price makes more difference than the (current) transaction fees.

Long-term, the hashrate needs exponential growth to sustain 10% faster blocks.

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October 27, 2020, 10:37:33 PM
 #24

That 10% faster blocks can be "used" only once, so if this week miners buy 10% more hardware, it's already included in the hashrate 2 weeks from now. Of course, in reality the hashrate is changing gradually, but a higher Bitcoin price makes more difference than the (current) transaction fees.


Just to be clear, I was talking about the short-term, as, within the current individual difficulty epoch, the number of transactions should have the same impact on the hashrate as the price does, anything that transfers to more profit = more hashrate = faster blocks.

Also, I am not talking about miners buying new mining gears and adding them to the network, because that can't really affect how things are in the short-term, but I am talking about the automated process of turning mining gears off and on as well as the profit switching which many if not the majority of miners use when fees on bitcoin are super high compared to the other SHA256 coins, a large amount of that hashrate will switch to mining bitcoin in a few minutes, that could potentially help with speeding the process of finding blocks for a certain period of time.

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Long-term, the hashrate needs exponential growth to sustain 10% faster blocks.

True for long-term, the hashrate growth needs to beat the difficulty adjustment which isn't feasble.


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October 28, 2020, 09:46:27 AM
 #25

I am talking about the automated process of turning mining gears off and on
That reminds me of this episode: Bitcoin is Volatile - Gilfoyle |Silicon valley| Season 5 Episode 3.

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