Exaggerated Fee on blockchain ($134)

[Findingnemo]

ref: https://bitcoinfees.net/

Is this a new website or an updated version of the bitcoinfeesearn (cmiiw) site?
It looks like the calculation is still not that good since you can send 4 sats/vbyte just fine if you take a look at the mempool. If you follow the suggestion of that site you'd overpay close to 10 times.
https://mempool.space/

Its a separate website not the shitty bitcoinfeesearn but this website also doesn't look good?! Its a decent website and I follow most of the time with the recommended fee in this site but I think its time to go with something better.

https://mempool.space/ this site shows the transactions stats in real time?

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[o_e_l_e_o]

https://mempool.space/ this site shows the transactions stats in real time?

Yeah, it is real time. Its low/medium/high priority suggestions are some of the most accurate that I have found, so if you are looking for a site to just tell you a fee to use, then it's probably your best bet. They seem to correspond to somewhere around 1.2 MB from the tip, 0.8 MB from the tip, and 0.3 MB from the tip, respectively.

Having said all that, I still think there is no real substitution for learning how to read the mempool yourself and decide where you want your transaction to go. Fee estimators generally only estimate based on a current snapshot of the mempool and do not take in to account the recent mempool trend. If I want to be in the next block or two and the mempool is rapidly filling, then I might want to aim 0.1 MB or even less from the tip. If, on the other hand, there are very few transactions being broadcast at the moment, then I might be happy to go 1 MB or more from the tip. At the moment, that difference is between 80 sats/vbyte and 15 sats/vbyte, but could be even more pronounced, which could translate to a saving of several dollars or more.

[bitmover]

https://mempool.space/ this site shows the transactions stats in real time?

Yeah, it is real time. Its low/medium/high priority suggestions are some of the most accurate that I have found, so if you are looking for a site to just tell you a fee to use, then it's probably your best bet. They seem to correspond to somewhere around 1.2 MB from the tip, 0.8 MB from the tip, and 0.3 MB from the tip, respectively.

Having said all that, I still think there is no real substitution for learning how to read the mempool yourself and decide where you want your transaction to go. Fee estimators generally only estimate based on a current snapshot of the mempool and do not take in to account the recent mempool trend. If I want to be in the next block or two and the mempool is rapidly filling, then I might want to aim 0.1 MB or even less from the tip. If, on the other hand, there are very few transactions being broadcast at the moment, then I might be happy to go 1 MB or more from the tip. At the moment, that difference is between 80 sats/vbyte and 15 sats/vbyte, but could be even more pronounced, which could translate to a saving of several dollars or more.

This website is very good.

I agree that the most important thing is to learn how to read the mempool. This is why observing the mempool in a chart like that, with the transactions grouped by fee rate, is the best way to determine what is the most cost-effective fee to pay.

I did something very similar to what mempool.observer did here.

You can select a fee per byte and plot your transaction in the mempool. Then you will see how many blocks (or bytes) you are away from confirmation. The mempool is very quiet now, and a 1-2 sat/byte fee would be enough for  a quick conffirmation

https://mempool.space/ this site shows the transactions stats in real time?

Yes, in real time. But it is important to notice that there is no such thing as "the mempool" (as the website says). What does this means? That some other nodes might have a differnet mempool, with other transactions that the node from mempool.observer don't have.
But overall it is enough precision.



Edit:
If you look at the graphic, you can see that there are still a lot of people paying more than 50 sat/byte in a transaction (even 176 sat/byte). They could get a next block confirmation with 3 sat/byte, but their software somehow told them to use a higher fee.

There is a big problem with education regarding fees imo. People don't know what fee to use.

[o_e_l_e_o]

If you look at the graphic, you can see that there are still a lot of people paying more than 50 sat/byte in a transaction (even 176 sat/byte). They could get a next block confirmation with 3 sat/byte, but their software somehow told them to use a higher fee.

This is why I always encourage people to look at the mempool themselves and not just accept the fee given to them by a website or, even worse, their wallet. Whenever the mempool fills up, these automatic fee algorithms tend to constantly try to "one up" each other and end up pushing their suggested fee higher and higher. This positive feedback loop ends up with everyone paying higher fees than they need to. Later, when the mempool empties, these algorithms are still stuck in this loop, and continue to rapidly escalate their suggested fee completely unnecessarily.

If we look at the mempool when the last block was mined, then 4 sats/vbyte would put you 0.1 MB from the tip. 5 minutes later and with only 0.5 MB of new transactions, it is now 250 sats/vbyte to get 0.1 MB from the tip. This is completely stupid. Every single one of those transactions could have paid 4 sats/vbyte and confirm just as quickly. If everyone took 30 seconds to look at the mempool, it would save them and everybody else a lot in fees.

[bitmover]

If we look at the mempool when the last block was mined, then 4 sats/vbyte would put you 0.1 MB from the tip. 5 minutes later and with only 0.5 MB of new transactions, it is now 250 sats/vbyte to get 0.1 MB from the tip. This is completely stupid. Every single one of those transactions could have paid 4 sats/vbyte and confirm just as quickly.

I believe those closed source and newbie-friendly wallets, such as blockchain.info, might receive some benefit from miners to suggest those fees.

They usually add a bunch of warnings and alerts saying that fee customization is an advanced feature and unless he is an "advanced user" he should use the suggest fee (which might be like 10-20 times higher than the safe confirmation fee)

Customize your transaction fee (for advanced users only)
Custom transaction fees should only be set by users with an advanced understanding of transactions and bitcoin fees. Setting too low of a fee may cause your transaction to remain unconfirmed for days or weeks. Please customize your transaction fee at your own risk.

To specify a custom transaction fee, click Customize Fee in the bitcoin send screen and enter your chosen fee in sat/b.

https://support.blockchain.com/hc/en-us/articles/209283686-Sending-Bitcoin#:~:text=Customize%20your%20transaction%20fee%20(for%20advanced%20users%20only)&text=Please%20customize%20your%20transaction%20fee,chosen%20fee%20in%20sat%2Fb.

If everyone took 30 seconds to look at the mempool, it would save them and everybody else a lot in fees.

The problem is that it is not that easy for newbies to look at the mempool. There aren't a lot of websites that show the mempool. I know about 5 or 10 (at the most).
It would be cool to see a wallet that somehow showed the mempool before sending

[favebook]

It would be cool to see a wallet that somehow showed the mempool before sending.

This would be a great feature. Although, an easier one would be like Exodus did:


I'd like them to explain how they choose their description for fees. Or maybe they should show a graph or something. That would be much more useful for newbies.

They could even add explanation of description for custom fees in their FAQ.

I'll send them feedback, they might consider it.

[bitmover]

This would be a great feature. Although, an easier one would be like Exodus did:

The problem is that estimation is not correct. This has been discussed over and over. Those algorithm always overestimate fees...

The mempool was cleared last night, anyone could get a confirmation with 1 sat byte and every estimator was suggestions 200 fees, even electrum.

[favebook]

The problem is that estimation is not correct. This has been discussed over and over. Those algorithm always overestimate fees...

The mempool was cleared last night, anyone could get a confirmation with 1 sat byte and every estimator was suggestions 200 fees, even electrum.

I am well aware that their estimation is overestimated and way too high. I saw the mempool last night, it was a dream come true for consolidating transactions.

Exodus currently puts "recommended fee" at 79 sats/byte even though current mempool average is ~40 sats/byte but that is because in last 20mins we had 6 blocks (they were found in 10 mins tho). Last few hour average was actually around 80sats/byte which I guess is why they take that number even though that fee is currently too high (overestimated) as you can get into next block with much much lower fee.

That is why I said, I'd like them to explain how they get those descriptions and how they choose their "recommended fee".

Sadly, I haven't checked recommended fee for exodus last night so I cannot say how good of recommended fee they had at that time.

EDIT: 2 minutes after this post, estimated fee dropped to 76 sats/byte which I assume was due to algorithm taking last few blocks into account. If that algorithm changes it's recommended fee (average of transaction fee during X amount of time) every 10 mins that would be okay. If X is 24h then it's not really useful, however if X is 4h than it is much better but still not perfect.

[joniboini]

That is why I said, I'd like them to explain how they get those descriptions and how they choose their "recommended fee".

You can probably check the code to see how they calculate it or ask them to explain on their social media such as Reddit. Not sure if they're going to respond though. From what I can tell is that they either grab it from another source or calculate it from the last few blocks with priority on the last block.

[nc50lc]

-snip- From what I can tell is that they either grab it from another source or calculate it from the last few blocks with priority on the last block.

Is it about blockchain.com?
Yes? Their fee rate is based on their own api, you can check it in action here: https://api.blockchain.info/mempool/fees
Those are the same result that the "send" window will show you for 'regular' and 'priority' fee rates.

And the priority fee (even regular) is indeed an overestimation.

[Rahar02]

-snip- From what I can tell is that they either grab it from another source or calculate it from the last few blocks with priority on the last block.

Is it about blockchain.com?
Yes? Their fee rate is based on their own api, you can check it in action here: https://api.blockchain.info/mempool/fees
Those are the same result that the "send" window will show you for 'regular' and 'priority' fee rates.

And the priority fee (even regular) is indeed an overestimation.

The estimated fee for electrum right now is 62 sats/byte although less than 6K unconfirmed transactions on the mempool.
Look at the mempool, 95% of them set the fee at 1-6 sats/byte and 2% pay 109-114 sats/byte, most likely wallet's automated fee.
The way of the wallet's suggesting a suitable fee based on fee market conditions, if all the transactions pay the same amount, the wallet should be able to adjust to cheaper fees, but if there are some people who pay higher fees, then the wallet's API will calculate overestimate fees based on 'min-max-regular-priority'.

[Fatunad]

-snip- From what I can tell is that they either grab it from another source or calculate it from the last few blocks with priority on the last block.

Is it about blockchain.com?
Yes? Their fee rate is based on their own api, you can check it in action here: https://api.blockchain.info/mempool/fees
Those are the same result that the "send" window will show you for 'regular' and 'priority' fee rates.

And the priority fee (even regular) is indeed an overestimation.

The estimated fee for electrum right now is 62 sats/byte although less than 6K unconfirmed transactions on the mempool.
Look at the mempool, 95% of them set the fee at 1-6 sats/byte and 2% pay 109-114 sats/byte, most likely wallet's automated fee.
The way of the wallet's suggesting a suitable fee based on fee market conditions, if all the transactions pay the same amount, the wallet should be able to adjust to cheaper fees, but if there are some people who pay higher fees, then the wallet's API will calculate overestimate fees based on 'min-max-regular-priority'.

Im no in confidence on putting up 1-6 sats/byte per transaction due to im really that afraid for some transactions get stuck. At the moment i had
used electrum and used up 30 sats/byte which is lower on the 62 bytes of yours but getting some confirmation isnt really that too long.
Its just there are people who do pay more even though the mempool isnt already clogged anymore.I agree into the word about adjustments
basing of on mi max regular priority API.

[joniboini]

^
There is no need to be that afraid. Just make sure to check out the mempool before you make a transaction and use the RBF option so you can increase the fee later on.

[Pffrt]

^
There is no need to be that afraid. Just make sure to check out the mempool before you make a transaction and use the RBF option so you can increase the fee later on.

OP is using blockchain.com wallet and it doesn’t have the option of enabling RBF and there's no way you can increase fee for such tx as I had faced (my friend actually) such an issue and looked for a solution bud didn’t get any at that moment.

[bitmover]

OP is using blockchain.com wallet and it doesn’t have the option of enabling RBF and there's no way you can increase fee for such tx as I had faced (my friend actually) such an issue and looked for a solution bud didn’t get any at that moment.

There is a solution to this problem: just move to another wallet.

and that solution will solve another, much more serious problem that you did not mention: the security of blockchain.com.

Blockchain.com is one of the worst wallets out there. It is easy to use and good for newbies, but everyone who used it should just move on to a safer wallet.

Suggestions:
Electrum.org
ledger nano
Trezor

[Danslip]

^
There is no need to be that afraid. Just make sure to check out the mempool before you make a transaction and use the RBF option so you can increase the fee later on.

OP is using blockchain.com wallet and it doesn’t have the option of enabling RBF and there's no way you can increase fee for such tx as I had faced (my friend actually) such an issue and looked for a solution bud didn’t get any at that moment.

Just curious, isn't it possible to take seed from Blockchain wallet and import to Electrum for accelerating the transaction? I have withdrawn my coins from the Blockchain wallet in the mentioned way and no problem has happened in the process. I have extracted the seed from the settings and copy-pasted the seed after downloading the BIP32 offline browser page.

[o_e_l_e_o]

Just curious, isn't it possible to take seed from Blockchain wallet and import to Electrum for accelerating the transaction?

Yes, it is possible to take your 12 word seed from Blockchain and import it in to any other BIP39 supporting wallet you like. The issue is that to be able to bump a transaction's fee after it has been broadcast, you need to flag the transaction as opting in to RBF prior to it being broadcast. Once it has been broadcast it is too late. Since the transaction has already been broadcast from Blockchain wallet without opting in to RBF, even importing your seed in to Electrum won't help as you still wouldn't be able to bump the fee.

Also worth noting that even if you import your seed from Blockchain in to a better wallet, the coins on that wallet remain inherently insecure the seed you are using was generated by a third party and transmitted over the internet. If you want to use a good wallet, then it is better to set up a new seed phrase in that wallet and send all coins from Blockchain to the new wallet.