Question on soccer predictions

[Smartvirus]

History based predictions

Is it always good to predict favourably on big teams in there prospective nations league, after they most have just participated in an international club organized league like the UEFA Champions League, UEFA Europa League and the rest of them.

Keeping in mind that, during these leagues, the best or reserved players are mostly used and probably would be exhausted because, the league games are not often far behind and often, the next meetings are often the mid tier clubs which are often well relaxed and prepared at the same time. Or perhaps, the top teams are in a mental state for the games as we could consider them charged up.

What do you guys think from history and experience?

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[Yogee]

It depends.

While exhaustion from previous games and motivation are big factors to consider how the team performs in the next games, we have to remember that they are still top athletes and pros. You'll have to check how many matches they've played so far since many of these guys can play 3-4 consecutive games before they get a day off provided they weren't injured.

[jademaxsuy]

They are trained for it so it is expected that they can play to a point where we could not do what they could do.

Playing soccer is just the same thing as a doctor. The soccer player could not do medicinal operations because they are not trained to it. Likewise to a doctor they can't play like a pro soccer player because their trainings are all about medicinal procedures.

If you get the point why you should not get bothered with their experience and previous matches and to next matches because they are trained for it. Maybe it past or previous games are factor to determine the possible outcome of the games like players getting injured. This is why sports is not only a battle against who are skillfull.and who are good but it also consider determination and endurance. A champion could never be a champion without experiencing hardships and challenges in their plays.

[ralle14]

If we're talking about group A in terms of the big teams in the Nations League for me it's always best to take the big teams since group A is top heavy compared to the other groups. Fatigue would be less of a factor since they have a lot of players that can step up if one of their starters isn't playing. Most of them have been playing for years they're probably used to having these tight schedules once in a while.

[avikz]

History based predictions

Is it always good to predict favourably on big teams in there prospective nations league, after they most have just participated in an international club organized league like the UEFA Champions League, UEFA Europa League and the rest of them.

Keeping in mind that, during these leagues, the best or reserved players are mostly used and probably would be exhausted because, the league games are not often far behind and often, the next meetings are often the mid tier clubs which are often well relaxed and prepared at the same time. Or perhaps, the top teams are in a mental state for the games as we could consider them charged up.

What do you guys think from history and experience?

Don't factor in the number of games played consecutively by the big names! They are BIG for many reasons as they houses the top names of this sport! Rather I think it's super important to keep track of the injuries of a team and nowadays covid infraction is another parameter to consider. You never know when a player will catch covid and will be disbanded for 14 days!

Historical analysis is important but it is evolving as new challenges show up! For me injuries and covid cases are more important than consecutive gameplayes!

[Wexnident]

It's only a part, of many other factors that a lot of bettors can analyze from. It isn't only in Soccer, every other sport out there depends not only on history/past records, but also on other factors which are probably numerous. Though it doesn't deny the fact that some bettors still use past matches as a form of a basis for their analysis, but it's never the final deciding factor. Simple refutals to history-based predictions are that if such predictions were always true, then there would always only be a single champion right?

The most notable changes that could possibly affect games imo are emotional aspects, which is still a broad aspect imo, but long story short is that when a player feels at his best or not. Said factor couldn't really be used as a basis 100% of the time though due to such factors being unable to be measured most of the time, that is until the game is midway.

[bitbollo]

A famous team that will play for a huge competition like Champions League has enough players of good quality.
Sometimes they can use b-team before a match in national league and I think it can be an advantage.
Also another good option it could be betting on a team from small national league. Despite there is a general low standard level, these teams have not a big list of players so they can be tired after competing in two long tournaments.
I think the actual condition has a strong impact in making a betting decision.

[iv4n]

Top player is top because his performances are on top, stamina, endurance... some top players can run all day! We can't expect the same from a tired player (due his health issues, or his simply bad overall form) and a player in top form! You can apply this on any sport, not just soccer! To know more about players form you need to watch games and follow sport news, and for sure it can help you in making a decision about the bet if you know more about the players form on the both sides!

[Ucy]

I think I would consider that. This is one of the reasons it's important to go through most/all of their games(including trainings) to see how well they are doing individually and as team, and whether they are improving or not after their games. This should give you an idea of how positively/negatively they have been affected by their recent matches
Sufficient information on their past/recent performances couls actually increase your chances of predicting their next matches right. It's going to be quite hard to source for such info though. You could have services that provide info for bettors. I wonder if such services already exist

[swogerino]

I think the most well known phase will all know “Past performance does not guarantee future results” is a clear indication as why basing bets will not work most of the time.As always there are some exceptions to the rule and history bets may work when the clash between two certain teams has shown that 90% of the games have been won by the stronger team,in this case I would base my bet on history.

[BIT-BENDER]

Going through gym tutorial or just plan exercising at home, you understand that a skipped day can affect, players -Top,average or bottom- wants in on the action, they want to player and keep playing in and out until maybe injuries stops them, I do not bet on a team that their top players had paused flow of match times, -coaches don't just rush to play a player coming back from a long term injuries- top players are sharpen by game time, and if a team has top players on the list with enough match time then its a sharp bet for me.

[proTECH77]

Many teams is not base on their players you can predict them because game can change at anytime that will make you start to they see the players as baby player.
Experience is the best way to determine how the game will end and who will become a winner at last. All my team player I really understand them very well that matter how another team strong they cannot beat my team 2-1 in this coming match.

[leea-1334]

Some games are worth betting on history,,, like when a team never wins at another team for a long time, like Everton vs Liverpool. IF you bet on them for the last 15 years (or even more) you win every time (if take handicap).

But mostly in my experience, history is worth nothing game to game. You can bet a bit on form but also these days in Covid especially, form counts for nothing.

Real playing best players against Shakhtar missing 10 first team regulars still lost, for example.

[kryptqnick]

Before placing a bet, I look at a few factors. I look at the odds, I look at the match history between two teams, and I look how the team performed in their recent games against other teams. If someone who's usually a big player is now out of the game, or if the coach has changed or something, this should also be taken into account. And I also compare the match history with the history of home and away wins (depending on where the game is taking place).
But the weariness of the players is a tricky thing, I haven't considered it before.

[Eternad]

What do you guys think from history and experience?

It's always better to check the experience of the team as well their history of performances in betting, there is a money involved so definitely we will check it. I only bet on teams I know or if there is a huge hype between the teams that is said to be a good fight I studied their past games if I'm about to bet, but most of the time I only bet in teams I watched and support them if someone refers me to that game, that's the only time I will study the team and tries to bet.

[mindrust]

Having information about the current state of the team beats knowing the history of the team imo.

Barcelona without their key players wouldn't play like Barcelona.

Bayern on the other hand, probably would but maybe not 100% but 90%.

Just because a team won 10 games before doesn't mean that they'll win the 11th.

[deadthings]

Statistics by no means always say everything, it is indicative, and based on that, the quotations have also been determined. You have to look at injuries, lineups, importance of the team and what kind of tournament / round it is. Exhibition matches have a different scoring level than in Champions league matches.

[CryptocurencyKing]

I believe these players or athletes are used to it and playing for a long time with little time outs shouldn't be a problem. It's what they've been trained to do all through their life and besides, it's a hubby built as a career so, they enjoy every bit of it and so, being energetic as the games go is not a problem. Every game kind of prepares you for the next.
Big teams always have this way of prevailing if they are in the winning mind frame so, fatigue is out of question.

[famososMuertos]

Hi! /OP
Your question has argument, because teams, although they may have great players in the long term of a tournament, depend on their physical conditions, even if they do not suffer any injuries.

But the above only leads me to a specific argument the "players", in that sense, we need to add the teams and I think that "season" applies best than "history" when you have to make a bet in a "league" game on any given Sunday, between average teams, even between so-called big or favorite clubs.

It may be that the history of a large team weighs on a small team when making a decision for any match, regardless of whether it is local league or Euro, Champion, Super Cup, etc, the recent season or the recent performance of the team, if you know it well, it can lead you to make a better decision to get it right with a better chance of winning.

And that is the point, maybe someone, due to the history of results in the past of a certain team, can give weight to that, that is, great triumphs, great players, despite their decision at the wrong time against a team that may be in a best specific moment, both at the team level and in individual player performance.

And actually the above in sports betting is what brings you great profits, because for easy results, low odds, consequently the payouts are equally low.

The funny thing about sports betting is that the vast majority place their bets based on the past histories of the teams and not on their current performance or their "season".

In conclusion, the use of historical data depends on when it is used as a reference and even on what kind of sporting event, because depending on that it is sometimes more feasible to use recent data.

Although you don't ask, and according to my assessment, the easiest league to bet on 1x2 is undoubtedly The League. 

G.B.

[boyptc]

It depends.

While exhaustion from previous games and motivation are big factors to consider how the team performs in the next games, we have to remember that they are still top athletes and pros. You'll have to check how many matches they've played so far since many of these guys can play 3-4 consecutive games before they get a day off provided they weren't injured.

I agree.

These athletes are professionals and went through several mental stress debriefing and exhaustion. They wouldn't be chosen as the best for the best teams if they can't take those factors personally. Although there's still some impact but they can take it easily.

[Lanatsa]

History based predictions

Is it always good to predict favourably on big teams in there prospective nations league, after they most have just participated in an international club organized league like the UEFA Champions League, UEFA Europa League and the rest of them.

Keeping in mind that, during these leagues, the best or reserved players are mostly used and probably would be exhausted because, the league games are not often far behind and often, the next meetings are often the mid tier clubs which are often well relaxed and prepared at the same time. Or perhaps, the top teams are in a mental state for the games as we could consider them charged up.

What do you guys think from history and experience?

It wouldn't matter if they don't have sufficient time to relax yet we aren't talking in 1 day gap or relax time so it would really be just enough for them on at least having that chill time.

Its not necessary for them to have some months or several weeks or so forth. Being on recent game doesn't mean always an exhaustion but rather this can be considered as a
way of maintaining things and remain charged up but we cant really avoid the fact when it comes to fatigue or some sort.

Not really a precise thing for you to look at just because other teams had long rest time doesn't mean that they are on advantage.

[iTradeChips]

I have always relied on the most common betting tactic, picking the strongest and the fastest based on statistics. I know this is kind of lame strategy but based on my own experience with small bets, this mostly work for me, though there are also moments where the winnable bet does not always win and sometimes you predict based on gut instinct. So predicting winners is really tricky in my opinion. You just have to make sure you have extra cash to use for gambling and not use the whole stash for your everyday needs.

[imstillthebest]

i didnt knew that reserves players were the best because i think they are just extra if ever someone got injured and cant play , that dont happen all the time and reserved players are rarely being used so why say that they are being exhausted the most ?  teams that take long term brakes are going to perform better but they wont just take a brake and relax but they are still going to train so that they wont forget thier skills and moves . the future are also important more than the history because no matter how they prepare and conditioned if theier oppponent are also going to be tough , chance of winning are still critical .

[Reosta_]

In my opinion, the winning streak of a big team can be very deceptive when betting. Because most people tend to think that their performance is awesome lately and they will win again. But it doesn't always work that way. If it would, then all the people would bet on big teams in such situations and win without having problem. Fatigue and being focused are the most important factors. For example; there is a big team whose players are very exhausted after playing 3 matches in a row with a very little break and a mid tier team that play their matches just on the weekends. In a situation like that, the mid tier team have a big advantage if they benefit from it.