The 2020 U.S. election has put the country on course for its highest turnout in a century—with campaigns and candidates dominating headlines.
The bitcoin price has soared in the run-up to the election, adding a massive 30% through October and riding a raft of positive news to hit highs not seen since early 2018.
Now, with Democratic challenger Joe Biden finding a solid lead in national polls over incumbent Donald Trump, bitcoin traders and investors are braced as candidates head into the last day of campaigning, with global markets already on edge.
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https://www.forbes.com/sites/billybambrough/2020/11/02/bitcoin-is-braced-for-a-us-election-earthquake-this-week/I am very curious about how the US election may impact Bitcoin's price activity. It seems markets are waiting for it.
1. If you get an authoritarian socialist/fascist like Kamala and Biden channeling Bernie and AOC, people are going to want bitcoin to protect themselves from the claws of the "free stuff" is better than "freedom" crowd. If Biden wins, smart people are going to be protecting their assets between now and January 2021 if they haven't already.
2. That said, don't believe the polls. Many are exercises in voter suppression or push polling - they want to dispirit Trump supporters or push people to vote a certain way.
Most of the pollsters are worse than weather people doing the next day forecast. “30% chance of rain, 75-85 for the high” doesn’t add any useful information. Some polls had Reagan trailing Carter by 8 points in mid-October 1980. In the Mondale/Reagan race, at one point Mondale had a 53-44 point lead over Reagan and Reagan ended up winning 49 of 50 states. In July 1988, Dukakis was up over Bush 55-38. Ditto Trump vs Hillary as you know.
3. Given how when Trump was called as the winner in 2016, markets (e.g. the Dow) dropped 750-1000 points initially, and then began a huge bull-market rebound early the next morning until March 2020 with covid and have pretty much recovered now, the prospects for the market with a Trump win would be good.
If Biden were to win and then put Warren and her ilk in power the impact on US growth and business would be significant. Would the market go down? Who knows. Would it go up less than under a pro-freedom president? Probably, but no one knows for sure.
Bitcoin can protect you from any form of authoritarian statist who might take power. It can protect you because you can flee with it, protect you from the ravages of inflation, or just have something that the mob can't seize. Plus all the other uses.
Remember when the government controls (or can control) everything, everything becomes political. Everything becomes a political fight to the death: one side wanting power and control, the other wanting liberty and live and let live. When one side can take everything because someone else "needs it" no one's life or property is safe.
