Bitcoin Volatility Expected to Rise After the US Presidential Election

[mickaelmosse.cryptoadvise]

While the United States prepares for the results of the 2020 Presidential Election, a number of data points and traders expect some significant cryptocurrency price fluctuations this week. Statistics from skew.com show bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility has increased to 59% while 3-6 month stats jumped over 62%.

The digital currency economy is hovering at around $388 billion, which is a giant jump from where it was during the last U.S. election in 2016. For instance, during the 2016 presidential race, the price of bitcoin (BTC) was around $709. Since then the crypto-asset BTC has seen a 1,802% return on investment (ROI). Another example is ethereum (ETH), which was trading for $10.83 per unit in 2016, now swaps for $382 in 2020.

For this election, a number of traders and a few points of implied volatility measurements suggest that crypto market participants expect a shake-up this week.

Data from skew.com’s “Bitcoin ATM Implied Volatility” chart indicates that the crypto asset’s options market expects big price fluctuations. Market players trading traditional finance assets envision a similar market shakeup following the U.S. election. At press time skew.com’s chart shows one month implied volatility has spiked and is now hovering around 59% today. Three-month stats have jumped to 62% and 65% for BTC’s implied volatility for the six month period.

Do you expect cryptocurrencies to be volatile following the U.S. election?
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Source : Mickael Mosse Blog

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[NeuroticFish]

Do you expect cryptocurrencies to be volatile following the U.S. election?

Bitcoin had quite a growth lately and a correction is possible.
Also on long term, US money printing may slow down a little. But the world is not only US of A and the overall the effect should not be that big and the current overall (upward) trend should be maintained.

However, wasn't Bitcoin price always volatile? 

[Oshosondy]

With the way the world is supporting bitcoin, the price may still decrease but may not be so significant, and if significant, it does not mean it is as a result of bitcoin election. The whole (4) previous halving of bitcoin that was responsible to part of the price volatility was during the year of US election which can make people thinking US election is responsible for it. It has been the reduced supply and people all over the world that are contributing to bitcoin marketcap by buying and selling it that are respensible for bitcoin price volatility, not US election.

[barto123]

Volatility no doubt.

If you believe in market cycles & S2F (Stock-To-Flow), Bitcoin could be about to make some serious moves in the upwards direction over the next 12-18 months.

Not to mention all the other bullish reasons to buy.

It's easier to name the reasons you shouldn't own Bitcoin - I honestly can't think of any.

The best advice anyone will give you:

Buy Bitcoin & HODL - seriously all you have to do.

[hatshepsut93]

So, the idea is that US elections will cause volatility on stock markets, which in turn influence Bitcoin? But we're already at a point when correlation between Bitcoin and stocks has stopped, because Bitcoin gained its own momentum, which is much stronger than whatever is happening with stocks. If volatility will increase, it will be a coincidence. The only scenario where elections/stocks indeed influence Bitcoin is if something really major happens, but this is unlikely.

[stompix]

Why would the bitcoin price care about the elections?

Exactly in the articles there is the mention of the previous trends, it has grown during Obama's presidency, it has done so under Trump it will most likely do the same under Biden, but why even trying to find a relation between the price and the president when none of them was even slightly interested by them? No projections on the price following the Chinese election? None? Nothing?  

I wonder why this obsession always to find events that would influence the price decisively, and at the same time think that they will be again and again not only a driving factor but do it with the same power over and over.

Also on long term, US money printing may slow down a little.

Slow down from the last stimulus check or slow down in general over a four year period?
Whoever wins this damn election has no way out of it, they will need to print more, even if it's for a short term, there is currently no way out of it, let's not even talk about the promises, if he plans on keeping those there goes another 3 trillion package in the first year.

So, the idea is that US elections will cause volatility on stock markets, which in turn influence Bitcoin? But we're already at a point when correlation between Bitcoin and stocks has stopped, because Bitcoin gained its own momentum, which is much stronger than whatever is happening with stocks.

Maybe stronger in percentage but stocks are rallying also quite a bit:
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-news-today-dow-nasdaq-surge-post-election-rally-2020-11-1029767145

[NeuroticFish]

Slow down from the last stimulus check or slow down in general over a four year period?
Whoever wins this damn election has no way out of it, they will need to print more, even if it's for a short term, there is currently no way out of it, let's not even talk about the promises, if he plans on keeping those there goes another 3 trillion package in the first year.

They will indeed have to print a lot more, but I expect to happen at somewhat slower rate than in the last ... let's say 6 months.
Before the elections all politicians (and especially the populist ones) are overly generous with the country's money ("like there's no tomorrow"). After elections (and after the "investors" are also payed, of course), they do a bit of thinking before throwing the money.
This doesn't mean that they will stop funding everything. Just they may be a bit more cautious.
(I hope that I answered the question.)

[Yaunfitda]

Comparing the price prior the 2016 election which is around ~$700, and then today at $11,500, yes it is very volatile, but bitcoin volatility is one trait of bitcoin so it doesn't count.  .

But not just bitcoin but stock markets has a good rally after the US election, so exciting times ahead. And with this news, https://cointelegraph.com/news/pro-bitcoin-candidate-wins-wyoming-senate-seat, what can go wrong? 

Former Republican congresswoman and current Bitcoin holder Cynthia Lummis has won a seat in the U.S. Senate against Democratic challenger Merav Ben-David.

[dothebeats]

Most of the time bitcoin markets do not care about sociopolitical events that are going on around the world. We've seen how the market moved when Brexit was happening, and nothing was really happening during that time for bitcoin even if its importance on the world economy is somewhat there. How more about Biden and Trump's toe-to-toe battle on the seat of POTUS, with neither of them saying something about bitcoin or crypto in general? Bitcoin's volatility is always there, sans elections, sans every other political events.

[DarkDays]

We all agree that in theory the BTC market shouldn't be moved by all of the speculative news, specially now with the US presidential election results coming in.

But the truth of the matter is that BTC is moving, and is moving fast. Whether this is due to this or some other change is uncertain at the moment but one thing is certain, BTC has officially broken the 14.8k. I wouldn't be surprised if it was to touch on 15k today.

[Bitstar_coin]

We all agree that in theory the BTC market shouldn't be moved by all of the speculative news, specially now with the US presidential election results coming in.

But the truth of the matter is that BTC is moving, and is moving fast. Whether this is due to this or some other change is uncertain at the moment but one thing is certain, BTC has officially broken the 14.8k. I wouldn't be surprised if it was to touch on 15k today.

Honestly i fail to see the correlation between the btc price movement and the election process, if anything, it should have been the opposite because according to many people the alts dip is as a result of the election process, but why is btc surging so high even when the election is yet to be concluded! are people buying btc awaiting the celebration of the winner ahead or what is the explanation of this price pump!

[Alert31]

US Presidential election has no direct effect in bitcoin because the demand of bitcoin scattered all over the world and that election has no way to reduce or add bitcoin supply. Bitcoin is already volatile since then. Maybe the election will affect the most in bitcoin if ever all the supporters of the candidates for US elections are the investors of bitcoin.

[traderethereum]

I wonder if the price can break $15k
But I am sure that if the situations still are like this, it is not impossible to see $15k will break it this day or the next day.
Bitcoin price still up and down, and the price moves fast at the market. Many people were shocked to see the price start a new rally in this time, and makes them buy before the price increase higher.
I am afraid that if people don't analyze and only follow the price, they can get in the trap at a high price, and in the end, they will wait for more to see the price will increase again.
I guess people now sell their bitcoin at a high price while they can see they still have a chance to sell.

[teosanru]

About volatility I don't know how exactly could Bitcoin behave. I mean none of the both candidates showed any sign of promoting cryptocurrencies or something But if you consider Bitcoin sort of a liberal move then I think Bidden would be better for cryptocurrencies but volatility shouldn't be effected merely due to an elected leader in longer term. It could make some up and down moves for next couple of weeks but once things stabilize I think we would be having a good time for cryptocurrencies. I heard authorities have now made it easier for cryptocurrency startups to raise money. So all on all cryptocurrencies are looking towards a healthy future.

[BrewMaster]

bitcoins price rise and the eventual correction will coincide with the time after the US presidential election but it will have nothing to do with it. the rally started a while ago and has been getting stronger every day. as the price goes higher, there will be more people running to buy bitcoin and a lot more traders who will dump altcoins to buy bitcoin. that increases the volatility of the entire cryptocurrency market which again has nothing to do with US elections.

[daarul50]

bitcoins price rise and the eventual correction will coincide with the time after the US presidential election but it will have nothing to do with it. the rally started a while ago and has been getting stronger every day. as the price goes higher, there will be more people running to buy bitcoin and a lot more traders who will dump altcoins to buy bitcoin. that increases the volatility of the entire cryptocurrency market which again has nothing to do with US elections.

There is nothing to do with the us election and bla bla bla but yes even you guys who denying it has no real proof isnt it?
I mean it could be the biden to win us election has drag some excitement to the investor that the crypto strict rules in us could be changed as the new policy may be applied under biden government.
Considering USA is one of the big players in crypto industry , why not to think it has something to do with the us election? I mean there is no harm to have that opinion right?

[Debonaire217]

Through this post, I immediately checked CMC and saw BTC and ETH getting bullish. With many speculations that when trump wins the election, crypto will show a positive trend but what I can see is that, no matter who wins, we have a good day ahead in crypto. I also like the news that there's a crypto project that also supports Biden, which could make him appreciate the support from the crypto community and also recognize it as one of the best technology we have so far. Still, a win-win situation whoever wins for these two parties.

[ChiBitCTy]

The Presidential election have a lot less to do with financial markets than most people realize.  Historically US presidential elections don't have much effect on stock market, and if they do it tends to be for a very minimal time period.  Bitcoin and cryptocurrency has next to zero correlation with the election, however.

[Mulann2]

Am surprise to see the price of btc this high, is there a special reason attached to the election that is making the price to pump this high! i wish other alts will follow, btc has been pumping for few days now ans alts still stagnant, infact dumped really hard, btc pumped to 12k, then 13k and now 14k and alts still showing no sign of movement 

[Legon]

Volatility?