Extreme greed on the market

[ChrisPop]

IMO this index should be used as a gauge for the market behavior, a secondary or tertiary indicator.

I don't say that someone can't build a strategy around it, but to be honest there are better solutions out there that give you much more insight regarding the market movement.

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[exstasie]

Thanks, do you think the volume indicator is reliable?

Volume is one of the few indicators I focus on. I'm primarily interested in looking for volume extremes. For example, when you see extremely high volume coinciding with a wick through major S/R, you should be mindful of a possible incoming reversal.

I really like looking at dollar volume, rather than standard (BTC denominated) volume. It's easier to recognize volume extremes.

I also absolutely love the volume profile tool (requires a Pro account on Tradingview). Gaps in the volume profile are often magnets for price, the same way price gaps in stock and commodity markets are.

[BTCappu]

Fear and Greed? Yes we do know that any of these two can have effect on the market. The fear can lead to market fall and then on the part of investors ,if you’re being greedy and not paying attention, you’re going to end up being rekt. But the truth is that you don’t know the feelings of other people.

I know when prices are going up like this there will always be people who are afraid that the market might crash anytime, when you see that the market keeps increasing, you become scared that it has gone up so much and might fall. But the truth is that sometimes these feelings are wrong.

[SquallLeonhart]

Greed is obviously a position where everyone wants to buy because it is going up, in crypto world we call these things FUD and FOMO and right now we are at FOMO period where bitcoin price has been skyrocketing like crazy.

This doesn't mean price will fall in crypto world because we are the ones who are making the market, in stock market world for example it could mean a crash because a company's worth and value is known in their books and how much it should be paid is known, but in reality people could still buy their stocks like crazy even though they do not deserve to worth that much which ends up with crashing the stock price back to what it should be or even lower. Crypto is not like that, its value is whatever we give it and that is why I believe it is highly important people do not fall for these indexes.

[exstasie]

Greed is obviously a position where everyone wants to buy because it is going up, in crypto world we call these things FUD and FOMO and right now we are at FOMO period where bitcoin price has been skyrocketing like crazy.

This doesn't mean price will fall in crypto world because we are the ones who are making the market, in stock market world for example it could mean a crash because a company's worth and value is known in their books and how much it should be paid is known, but in reality people could still buy their stocks like crazy even though they do not deserve to worth that much which ends up with crashing the stock price back to what it should be or even lower. Crypto is not like that, its value is whatever we give it and that is why I believe it is highly important people do not fall for these indexes.

You're talking about intrinsic value vs. speculation, which is sort of sidestepping the question about sentiment. Sure, BTC's value is speculative, I agree with you there, but that doesn't mean extremely greedy sentiment can't precede a crash.

This is the basic idea behind sentiment analysis: when the market is extremely greedy and everyone has already given into FOMO, there is no one left to buy. Everyone has already bought. So there is nowhere to go but down.

Now, the problem with that approach is that greed and hype and demand aren't range bound. In a bubble, there are constantly more buyers stampeding into a FOMO-driven market, so sentiment can remain extremely greedy for weeks and months at a time. But keeping that in mind, it can be one factor influencing price, and it surely can precede a correction, especially during normal (non bubble) conditions. This is why I like to look for confluence in my analysis. When TA on multiple higher time frames and sentiment both suggest an incoming correction, it's usually a powerful signal.

[Golftech]

Fear and Greed? Yes we do know that any of these two can have effect on the market. The fear can lead to market fall and then on the part of investors ,if you’re being greedy and not paying attention, you’re going to end up being rekt. But the truth is that you don’t know the feelings of other people.

I know when prices are going up like this there will always be people who are afraid that the market might crash anytime, when you see that the market keeps increasing, you become scared that it has gone up so much and might fall. But the truth is that sometimes these feelings are wrong.

If you keep observing the market behaviors then the chance to use this two emotions as an advantage may take place, fear, instead of going with the flow when market is falling try to review and research for the reason, you'll be able to pick the bottom and wait for the recovery period, while with greed, it's not bad if you use it properly, allow yourself to place your target avoiding you to use it too much.

[Coin-1]

Do you ever use this index in your trading analysis?

I first learned about the "Fear & Greed" index in 2018. If I remember correctly, this indicator examines Stock Price Dynamics (MA), Strength, Breadth and another 4 more factors. The "intrinsic" value is determined by calculating their equal weighted average.

In my opinion, this index can be used well in analyzing regulated equity markets, but it is practically useless for predicting the movements of the global decentralized cryptocurrency market, because it is almost impossible to gauge whether coins are fairly priced or not.

I often watch the Bitcoin mining difficulty chart because I attach more significance to this technical indicator. If the BTC price drops sharply in the near future, the difficulty could fall below 16.78T. This is the level of difficulty that was before mining reward was halved in May 2020.

Some people say the bullish rally was driven primarily by recent news from PayPal. By January 1, 2021, whales are likely to keep the prices of BTC, ETH, LTC and BCH high enough to sell more expensive coins to PayPal customers.

In conclusion, I do not rely on the "Fear & Greed" index in my trading analysis.

[Mpamaegbu]

Hey guys,
By recent Fear&Greed Index bitcoin is in extreme greed area, usually it's a sign of decline in price or even crash. I've been observing this index for quite some time and find it pretty accurate, of course it doesn't give you the exact day or time but it indicates the sentiment on the market. Do you ever use this index in your trading analysis?

By extension, what you're implying is that the Bitcoin market is in the overbought region now, right? Well, I used to believe that there was something like oversold and overbought areas when I started out trading a few years ago. That was in the past but experience has taught me there isn't anything like that. There can be corrections in the market from time to time, and this is fueled by fear of investors wanting to cash in on an opportunity to take profit and reenter later. It's an experienced way of trading. I often do this.
I don't follow any index because none is accurate. They're mostly lagging indicators.

[Salauddin1994]

Indicators often fail because i don't follow any indicators either can't always give the right signal this is why you need to use your business experience and follow trading strategies and trading charts even if there is extreme greed in the market it is foolish to harm oneself after greed. Many bad projects are being greedily scammed due to rising currency prices in the crypto market this is why you need to make yourself experienced in business and try to make money by following all the new and old trading rules.

[maydna]

Indicators often fail because i don't follow any indicators either can't always give the right signal this is why you need to use your business experience and follow trading strategies and trading charts even if there is extreme greed in the market it is foolish to harm oneself after greed. Many bad projects are being greedily scammed due to rising currency prices in the crypto market this is why you need to make yourself experienced in business and try to make money by following all the new and old trading rules.

Having experience in trading and business will be useful because you can analyze the market better than before. That can also increase your trading and business skills, allowing you to select the right coins. But if you can't control your greed to take the profit, you will lose the chance to make a profit.

The exchange indicator is enough for you to analyze the market situations, but if you don't know how to use it, that will be difficult to determine to enter and exit the market. But no matter what indicator you use, as long as you can learn details about the indicator, you will have the opportunity to profit.

[Majharul Saiif]

I usually can't predic the price in such vulnerable market. It is very tough though. If yoi consider your holdings you will se some changes. Yes Btc is high now and getting increased. But see the altcoins. It is getting dumping now. So price analysis is now hard to predict. So it is no matter which indicator you used.

[beerlover]

Funny thing I saw on reddit was a post about how back when in march bitcoin crashed to 3.8 for a while and everyone assumed it would go to 1k and everyone was afraid and there were people who actually said bitcoin would end because of pandemic and nobody would ever hold any bitcoins from now on because pandemic showed how bitcoin was useless in a world crisis.

From that day to this day we have actually gone up over 4x times. Not kidding, go calculate yourself, we were almost 4k and we are at 16k right now, so whatever you have put in that day would be 4 times bigger today. What do they say now? They say it will be 100k or 200k and more in 2021, why? Because they realized they were very late during march and missed out on a great chance, so they hope it would happen again today. This is very wrong way of thinking.

[abel1337]

Funny thing I saw on reddit was a post about how back when in march bitcoin crashed to 3.8 for a while and everyone assumed it would go to 1k and everyone was afraid and there were people who actually said bitcoin would end because of pandemic and nobody would ever hold any bitcoins from now on because pandemic showed how bitcoin was useless in a world crisis.

From that day to this day we have actually gone up over 4x times. Not kidding, go calculate yourself, we were almost 4k and we are at 16k right now, so whatever you have put in that day would be 4 times bigger today. What do they say now? They say it will be 100k or 200k and more in 2021, why? Because they realized they were very late during march and missed out on a great chance, so they hope it would happen again today. This is very wrong way of thinking.

It's just how they take advantage of spreading FUDs like these just to make a chain of reaction to the people and the people who start the FUD will take advantage of it. This is what happened before and the people are repeating themselves with this kind of situation. We can see that hodlers from the day that bitcoin hits 4k will gain much profit today. We can see who is the real believers of bitcoin and those who are just making a profit on it. Those who risk that time got their pay off today and into the future.

[rijaljun]

I usually can't predic the price in such vulnerable market. It is very tough though. If yoi consider your holdings you will se some changes. Yes Btc is high now and getting increased. But see the altcoins. It is getting dumping now. So price analysis is now hard to predict. So it is no matter which indicator you used.

I don't think the whole altcoin market is down now also you really can't predict the price of the market since it's volatile those indicators and charts are just your guide to what could be the outcome and there's a lot of outcome that can happen and you should make a strategy on how are you going to handle the outcome.

[24Kt]

I usually can't predic the price in such vulnerable market. It is very tough though. If yoi consider your holdings you will se some changes. Yes Btc is high now and getting increased. But see the altcoins. It is getting dumping now. So price analysis is now hard to predict. So it is no matter which indicator you used.

I don't think the whole altcoin market is down now also you really can't predict the price of the market since it's volatile those indicators and charts are just your guide to what could be the outcome and there's a lot of outcome that can happen and you should make a strategy on how are you going to handle the outcome.

You will go crazy if you try to predict these alt markets. What you can do is just focus on coins that have vested interest with. If you are a holder of specific coins, just monitor closely their developments or updates, because you will get a hint on what's to come. But if you will really look at other alts for no reason, I think you are just wasting your time.

[michellee]

Well, It is better to study the coin chart indicator itself.  Because indeed the fear and greedy index seems to signal the market situation.  Learning the technical analyst of a coin is not easy, there will be inaccuracies even if someone is a pro.  because guessing where the market will go up or down is not an easy thing either. But if you understand about TA at least you can make decision

If he doesn't want to learn for that indicator, he can stick with the indicator that he already uses because if he can master the indicator that he used, I think he can skip learning the other indicators. But I agree that if we can master more indicators, that will help us analyze the market, and we can increase our skill better. We don't have to afraid of the mistake that we might make after we analyze because we are still learning. I am sure that if we can learn more and more, we can have a better analysis than before. We need more experience to have better analysis and more time to have better skills.

[globalpain]

I usually can't predic the price in such vulnerable market. It is very tough though. If yoi consider your holdings you will se some changes. Yes Btc is high now and getting increased. But see the altcoins. It is getting dumping now. So price analysis is now hard to predict. So it is no matter which indicator you used.

I don't think the whole altcoin market is down now also you really can't predict the price of the market since it's volatile those indicators and charts are just your guide to what could be the outcome and there's a lot of outcome that can happen and you should make a strategy on how are you going to handle the outcome.

only selected altcoins can determine the bullish momentum in the current situation,
such as Defi altcoins and of course Ethereum, we know that this is a difficult season for altcoins,
but we don't give up, just keep holding your altcoins.

[death69]

I usually can't predic the price in such vulnerable market. It is very tough though. If yoi consider your holdings you will se some changes. Yes Btc is high now and getting increased. But see the altcoins. It is getting dumping now. So price analysis is now hard to predict. So it is no matter which indicator you used.

I don't think the whole altcoin market is down now also you really can't predict the price of the market since it's volatile those indicators and charts are just your guide to what could be the outcome and there's a lot of outcome that can happen and you should make a strategy on how are you going to handle the outcome.

only selected altcoins can determine the bullish momentum in the current situation,
such as Defi altcoins and of course Ethereum, we know that this is a difficult season for altcoins,
but we don't give up, just keep holding your altcoins.

Choosing an altcoin for an affordable profit is not a hard task. But people keep wasting their money on scam projects or useless coins. My advice is to put your money in top 100 coins. They all have the potential to increase, even 10 or 20 times in the future or more specific, in 2021.

Holding your crypto without knowledge or elaboration can cause you to lose your money. In 2017, my portfolio had tons of shit coins and only 1 or 2 increased and bring me profit. But they can not handled my loss due to other shitcoins.

Personally, Ethereum is my perfect number one choice. No coin can have a better profile than Ethereum. There is nothing bordering me while holding ethereum. I have no fear with this coin. I dont want to feel exhausted waiting for shitcoin to make a movement

[New.in.trading]

To me the only question is, when will the banks step in and short the hell out of BTC USD again? Anyone here remebers what happened 2017 on dec 27/28? Banks came up with an BTC Futures and shortet the hell out of it. Price dropped to 3.5k and until then, every little upmove was only banks selling their shorts to dump money. That is my opinion. So... the higher BTC price rises, the more I think banks will step in again and do the same thing again. Why?
-> Who has the biggest interest, ppl should lose money they investet into BTC because BTC is a real thread to them?
-----> Banks

-> Who's got enough money to short against all the BTC hodlers?
-----> Banks

-> who can short all year long, without having fear of a margin call?
-----> Banks

what do they need in the BTC Market?
-> a big Hype, so ppl buy at every price. What are we getting right about now?!

What do you guys think?

[TheUltraElite]

only selected altcoins can determine the bullish momentum in the current situation, such as Defi altcoins and of course Ethereum, we know that this is a difficult season for altcoins, but we don't give up, just keep holding your altcoins.

If you have been watching the market for a long time, you would not make that statement. Bitcoin is what sets the movement in the first place. Rest all altcoins simply follow the trend. Currently the effect is due to the Paypal deal for crypto payments and this fueled a big bullish trend. Altcoins are following it like anything.

But if you are wise enough you would sell off your altcoins at profit during this pump rather than keep holding on to them. Rest assured, they are not going to be next to bitcoin ever in future, they remain "alts".