Dow Jones could crash by up to 4000 points if Biden locks USA!!!

[jaysabi]

It will be foolish to shut down the economy now, when the pandemic is retreating. Most of the pharma companies have also announced that the vaccines will be available in the market from next month onwards. And also, from what we have seen lockdowns have only a limited impact in reducing the number of deaths from COVID 19. Countries which refused to impose any sort of lockdowns were the first to recover (examples are Pakistan and African nations).

The pandemic is not retreating. Are you even paying attention?  The US is very nearly out of hospital space due to the surge of infections.  Every day for the last 9 days we've set a new record for most infections.  Deaths are skyrocketing.  Absolutely nothing is getting better.  If a vaccine gets approved tomorrow it will take 8-12 months to distribute nationally.  Pakistan and Africa are so poor and have such poor tracking and reporting abilities that data coming out of them on Covid infections are useless for comparing to developed economies.  If you want an apt comparison, look at equally developed countries where some have imposed lockdowns and some didn't and you will see that the rate of infection was always lower in those that imposed lockdowns, and the stricter the lockdown the better the data.  Even look at the US where the southern states largely had lax lockdowns vs northern states that had stricter, and the data speaks for itself.

[pixie85]

There's a chance that Biden will announce a national lockdown in the US since he believes it to be the only solution to keep the pandemic under control but I don't think that the perfect solution due to the damage once was done by the total lockdown and not even this time that Pfizer vaccine was proved to be more than 90% effective

A lockdown is the worst thing he can do and far from being a solution for anything but maybe stopping migrations lol

If he does it he's going to bankrupt businesses and it won't change anything for covid. The lockdown will have to be lifeted at some point and then whoever did not get covid in the first and second wave will finally get it. This is not something we can stop. We can delay it, that's all.

[exstasie]

It will be foolish to shut down the economy now, when the pandemic is retreating.

Retreating? The numbers are worse than ever before. This is the second wave we were worried about in the summer:



So it's understandable why people are fearmongering about a second lockdown.

However, I think it's extremely unlikely Biden does anything unconstitutional at such a divisive time. I'm confident his administration will defer to individual state governors on the matter of lockdowns. Regardless, I really doubt we'll see the same scale of lockdowns that we saw in March and April.

[BuNga_cute]

In my opinion, Biden wants USA to go into lockdown because America's condition is quite apprehensive. The number of spread of
the corona virus continues to increase and the number of people who have died also continues to grow, so I agree if Biden takes
steps to lockdown USA. Indeed, the impact that will be quite large on the American economy, not only could the Dow Jones crash,
but all stock markets would fall. It is even possible that many companies will go bankrupt, but when compared to human life which is
more important. I believe Biden prioritizes human lives over the American economy.

[stompix]

~

Basically they are letting lots of people catch it every where in the world. They then point to the USA and Trump laugh and say well we are better then the USA less sick less dead.

Pretty much looks like this will take out 10million people by the first of May.

I've said it before that sometimes comparing the US with countries from the EU will not produce an accurate image but well, even I can't stop myself from doing this ...You compare the US with Germany for example, but then why not comparing Germany with Spain, or the Netherlands with Poland and Sweden with Romania as those have that much in common as New York and Yellowstone.

And let's look at the numbers, two days ago,
The US, +159k cases +1,257 deaths
Top 5 countries in Europe as they almost match the population (UK,DE,FR,SP,IT)  +125K cases, 1715 deaths
So, not that big difference there.

And if something that other smaller countries do better, look at what's happening in the Czech Republic, till exactly one month ago there were 1500 deaths from the start of the year, now 6200. Unless we have full numbers there is no way to say who's doing better.

Well here in France we call that a lockdown, on top of what you said all shops are closed except food ones, cinema and theaters are closed, religious services are banned, you need to have a good reason backed by a written paper (or an app) to get out otherwise you pay a fine...
With these measures the numbers have stopped getting worse and are slowly improving, that's going towards being under control.

Yeah, but you don't have public transport shut down, you don't have all factories that do not produce essential goods shut down, this is what they aim for in theory here. Everything other than essential services shut down for 6 weeks.

And if you think you have brought this under control, wasn't this also the case in spring? What guarantee you have it will not start again after you open up again. And how long can you keep even those shutdown?  15 billion in tourism for Paris in a year, where is that money going to come from if you extend this for 6 months? More debt? Who's going to pay that debt, the ones with no work?

[EdenHazard]

It will be foolish to shut down the economy now, when the pandemic is retreating.

Retreating? The numbers are worse than ever before. This is the second wave we were worried about in the summer:



So it's understandable why people are fearmongering about a second lockdown.

However, I think it's extremely unlikely Biden does anything unconstitutional at such a divisive time. I'm confident his administration will defer to individual state governors on the matter of lockdowns. Regardless, I really doubt we'll see the same scale of lockdowns that we saw in March and April.

Well if we talk about the statistics..
US deaths case is at 246k , nearly 20% of the total world deaths case due to covid19 which it's seems creepy, no wonder biden first step to announce the national lockdown is reasonable. But Is this number abnormal? I mean how much is the US deaths in a year before the covid19 ? Is it the same? Or is it much more?

However this is what I've got from the news ..

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/covid-biden-transition-national-lockdown-b1723030.html

So which one the true?

[Farul]

A lockdown is the worst thing he can do and far from being a solution for anything but maybe stopping migrations lol

If he does it he's going to bankrupt businesses and it won't change anything for covid. The lockdown will have to be lifeted at some point and then whoever did not get covid in the first and second wave will finally get it. This is not something we can stop. We can delay it, that's all.

If the Lockdowns are done right it can hamper the spread of covid until the vaccine can be distributed to all of the population.

Just look at china and their draconian lockdown, the height of the pandemic there only lasted about a month(February). yeah small businesses are pretty fucked by this lockdown, but this lockdown accelerates the "end" of the pandemic, which means small businesses can doing business again pretty fast, and the population fear about recession faded. look at the Chinese economic growth, only Q1 2020 were negative, Q2 and Q3 growths are positives. during that 1 month lockdown, the government can give some help for small businesses to stay afloat. the population also obey the government rules about wearing masks. if you want to see the non-draconian lockdown that succeeds, just look at taiwan or vietnam, taiwan economy only contracted a bit when lockdown was implied (Q1 & Q2), Q3 growth is positive. or vietnam economy, who didn't contract on 2020(Q1, Q2, Q3 Has Positive growth), also these 2 countries already issued some travel limitations from january. If Lockdown are done right, they can save both the economy and the population from covid.

However if you try to lockdown USA, good luck with that,  since there will be a lot of pople who don't obey the lockdown/not wearing masks while going outside. especially after this election, many trump supporter will take biden action to lockdown with a grain of salt.

[justdimin]

Isn't this an awesome news for bitcoin? Not like Trump was awesome when it comes to stocks or anything like that, numbers could be taken from any period you want but when you look at the real deal Trump had huge numbers that looked amazing but also had horrible numbers that looked worst all in just one term presidency, look at Dow Jones numbers, in the last 4 years it has crashed to lowest point of 40 years, but it also broke new all time high and all during Trump period.

I guess same could happen with Biden, stocks could crash like crazy and also break a new all time high, all during his first term, wouldn't be really shocking to see that. No matter what happens, I believe the next 4 years will be amazing for crypto, we are definitely going to see a new all time high in bitcoin.

[oHnK]

Isn't this an awesome news for bitcoin? Not like Trump was awesome when it comes to stocks or anything like that, numbers could be taken from any period you want but when you look at the real deal Trump had huge numbers that looked amazing but also had horrible numbers that looked worst all in just one term presidency, look at Dow Jones numbers, in the last 4 years it has crashed to lowest point of 40 years, but it also broke new all time high and all during Trump period.

I guess same could happen with Biden, stocks could crash like crazy and also break a new all time high, all during his first term, wouldn't be really shocking to see that. No matter what happens, I believe the next 4 years will be amazing for crypto, we are definitely going to see a new all time high in bitcoin.

This is indeed news that will have a good impact on bitcoin, because investors will soon save their assets to other more promising assets and here we already know each other, during the pandemic the asset that is not affected is bitcoin.  Bitcoin is sure to reap promising results in the next 4 years because of the evidence seen in recent months.  But as good as this news is for bitcoin, on the other hand, this is bad news for many companies because the company's value will decline and many investors will not trust to invest in the company anymore.

[sheenshane]

We can't assume if this plan will be implemented in 2021 by Biden since Trump is still trying to contest the result and recount will be conducted in few states, then that won't guarantee this 4-6 weeks lockdown.  Probably, if this will really happen next year the Dow Jones will definitely pull down by a thousand points for import and export will be on hold during those times.

However, we can't assume right away that it is a wrong move because I'm pretty sure that behind this plan they will gain something on it, and whatever the result they already have backup plans as an immediate response if the outcome won't be favorable to them.

Anyway, let's just hope it won't worsen the situation besides we can't go against it if once implemented.

[tyz]

Well, if you look at it soberly, Biden can only impose a lockdown not before January. Until then, Trump is still president and he has announced that he will not do a lockdown. In two months the situation may have changed in such a way that a lockdown is no longer necessary. However, if it does come, you can expect another crash like in spring for sure.

[ReiMomo]

It is still early for us to conclude that the 4-6 weeks lockdown will happen since we still have around two months before Biden will be sitting as the president of the US and a lot of things might happen within the time frame.

I believe that Biden is just thinking of this lockdown as an immediate response for the pandemic yet hasn't thoroughly understood the situation but once he was able to have full information on the economic standing of his country then there could be some changes in his decision as well.

On the other hand, if Biden will really implement the lockdown it may really crash down the Dow by a huge point. However, locking down the whole country may somehow strengthen the value of USD in the global exchange due to its demand in the market.

[AndySt]

We can't assume if this plan will be implemented in 2021 by Biden since Trump is still trying to contest the result and recount will be conducted in few states, then that won't guarantee this 4-6 weeks lockdown.  Probably, if this will really happen next year the Dow Jones will definitely pull down by a thousand points for import and export will be on hold during those times.
However, we can't assume right away that it is a wrong move because I'm pretty sure that behind this plan they will gain something on it, and whatever the result they already have backup plans as an immediate response if the outcome won't be favorable to them.
Anyway, let's just hope it won't worsen the situation besides we can't go against it if once implemented.

In any case, there is still time before the inauguration of the newly elected or previous President, and we hope that the necessary clarity will be made before that time, because if there is uncertainty about the election results, it will eventually put pressure on the index itself. There is nothing good in the lockdown itself, but given the experience of the first wave of the pandemic, it seems that the final word in this matter remains with the authorities of individual States, and here a classic confrontation between the President of the country from one party and the head of state from another party can play out.

[suzanne5223]

There's a chance that Biden will announce a national lockdown in the US since he believes it to be the only solution to keep the pandemic under control but I don't think that the perfect solution due to the damage once was done by the total lockdown and not even this time that Pfizer vaccine was proved to be more than 90% effective

A lockdown is the worst thing he can do and far from being a solution for anything but maybe stopping migrations lol

If he does it he's going to bankrupt businesses and it won't change anything for covid. The lockdown will have to be lifeted at some point and then whoever did not get covid in the first and second wave will finally get it. This is not something we can stop. We can delay it, that's all.

I also consider the total lockdown not to be the solution to control or put an end to the covid 19 spread in the US but your decision and mine don't count cause the President and his management decision will be the final say. However, I think the lockdown is out of the picture now that the Moderna vaccine was said to be 94.5% effective while the Pfizer vaccine is also more than 90% effective.

[aesma]

Dow jones is doing fine so far, as are my investments into another stock market. In fact with the two vaccines announcements my portfolio went up 20%, that's wild.

Personally I'll take the vaccine ASAP, I want to be able to travel again, it's the only thing worth doing.

[slapper]

He will not be President until January of 2021. Trump continues to stay on his chair and govern the country.

Lockdown is necessary for the USA since they have recorded many people infected everyday. However, we will soon have the vaccine and it is guaranteed that the vaccine is effective. Therefore, we can avoid the lockdown by soon implementing the vaccine.

Personally, Trump should consider to impose the lockdown during mid summer because it was the high time of the disease. But he ignored it and now the USA has turned into a big chaos. Cant blame him much. Each President has their own ways to solve problems

[HaXX0R1337]

Dow jones is doing fine so far, as are my investments into another stock market. In fact with the two vaccines announcements my portfolio went up 20%, that's wild.

Personally I'll take the vaccine ASAP, I want to be able to travel again, it's the only thing worth doing.

For that you need to wait for alteast six months to a year to get the vaccine unless you are a medical personal or someone important you wont get the vaccine from what i read from the newspapers and on top of that i am not aware of any vaccines that are hundred percent tried and tested and the risk of taking a trail version is just as harmful if the side effects are not studied carefully.
About lockdown, first let Trump and Biden decide who will be in the office .

[aesma]

Dow jones is doing fine so far, as are my investments into another stock market. In fact with the two vaccines announcements my portfolio went up 20%, that's wild.

Personally I'll take the vaccine ASAP, I want to be able to travel again, it's the only thing worth doing.

For that you need to wait for alteast six months to a year to get the vaccine unless you are a medical personal or someone important you wont get the vaccine from what i read from the newspapers and on top of that i am not aware of any vaccines that are hundred percent tried and tested and the risk of taking a trail version is just as harmful if the side effects are not studied carefully.
About lockdown, first let Trump and Biden decide who will be in the office .

I'm not a medical professional but I'm someone at risk with the virus so I should get some priority. Here in my country it should be given starting in January apparently. Maybe even before, unlike for previous vaccines everything is accelerated.

They've done phase 3 trials, so they already know the vaccine is safe, that's phase 1 and 2. Phase 3 it's thousands of people who tried it so I'm confident in it.

[DevilSlayer]

He will not be President until January of 2021. Trump continues to stay on his chair and govern the country.

Lockdown is necessary for the USA since they have recorded many people infected everyday. However, we will soon have the vaccine and it is guaranteed that the vaccine is effective. Therefore, we can avoid the lockdown by soon implementing the vaccine.

Personally, Trump should consider to impose the lockdown during mid summer because it was the high time of the disease. But he ignored it and now the USA has turned into a big chaos. Cant blame him much. Each President has their own ways to solve problems

USA are implementing health protocols but they are not too strict and it is the reason why wearing face masks in their country is not mandatory. There are also many ignorant people there who are not believing in Covid 19 and there are also some who believe but they do not want to wear face mask because their reason is they have freedom to do what they want and they cannot breathe properly wearing mask. Trump is not yet conceding even though Biden already won in terms of votes in different states. Trump is good when it comes to testing because millions of people in USA are already tested but he is not good when it comes to strict health protocol and it is the reason why the active cases there are still high. Biden said that he will form a great team with great scientist where it is a task force in order to beat the COVID 19. I hope that this task force will become successful where there is no lockdown that is required. I do not think that the DJIA can crashed more than a 1000 points because we are already finished in crucial week where investors are now starting to re invest their money.

[nomenclatur]

this will actually stop the spread of this corona virus if isolation measures can make things much better then all that should be supported this will make the USA economy will weaken for a short time Biden must have prepared all this for his country and its people to be free from the corona virus if problems this can be resolved in the near future then the US economic growth will return to normal.