Is Merit distribution declining?

[notblox1]

I was talking with other forum members and after looking at Merit Dashboard made by DdmrDdmr, I came to conclusion that Merit distribution is slowly declining.
Last week from November 9 to November 15 is very low if we look at statistics, that dropped a lot compared to all previous week and I think it hit ATL.


Merit Dashboard

I don't know if one of the the reasons is that are some inactive merit sources like mentioned in Merit Sources without activity in the past 20 days, or something else that I am not aware off.

[1714071097]

1714071097

[1714071097]

1714071097

[1714071097]

1714071097

[1714071097]

1714071097

[1714071097]

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[suchmoon]

Last week from November 9 to November 15 is very low if we look at statistics, that dropped a lot compared to all previous week and I think it hit ATL.

There is something wrong with Dd's data. I see 4731 merits sent during that week.

[notblox1]

There is something wrong with Dd's data. I see 4731 merits sent during that week.

Is there some other website I can check for correct merit stats?

[tranthidung]

Here you go:

Data is for 146 weeks (with latest Friday merit data dump):

• First week is not completed one
• Las week - 2020w46 is dropped because it has 3 days, last day is incompleted day.

Findings:

• Median of weekly merit is 4669.5 ~ 4670 with the interquatile range is 4260 to 5392.
• Sum of merit in 2020w45 is 4506.
• 2020w45 is -3.5% less than median of weekly merit (not much signifcant fall and it happens several times in merit history)
• The fall in 2020w45 is still less than median value of diff neg at -8.8% (see at bottom). It is normal
• Charts and bottom tables show there are significant spikes and no significant weak-downs
• Lastly, sourced merit will be replenished each 30 days since the day each merit was distributed by merit sources. It means merit sources sometime drain out of sourced merit. I don't want to point out when it usually happens but there are weeks or days merit is more intensively distributed than in the other days.

Summary stats:

Code:

    variable |         N      mean        sd       p50       p25       p75       min       max
-------------+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
       merit |     146.0    5404.3    3024.1    4669.5    4260.0    5392.0    3186.0   27920.0
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Details:

Code:

     +-----------------------------------+
     |    week   median   merit     diff |
     |-----------------------------------|
  1. |  2018w4   4669.5   27920   497.92 |
  2. |  2018w5   4669.5   20930   348.23 |
  3. |  2018w6   4669.5   14042   200.72 |
  4. |  2018w7   4669.5   11901   154.87 |
  5. |  2018w8   4669.5    8879    90.15 |
     |-----------------------------------|
  6. |  2018w9   4669.5    9005    92.85 |
  7. | 2018w10   4669.5    7178    53.72 |
  8. | 2018w11   4669.5    7340    57.19 |
  9. | 2018w12   4669.5    7138    52.86 |
 10. | 2018w13   4669.5    6392    36.89 |
     |-----------------------------------|
 11. | 2018w14   4669.5    6542     40.1 |
 12. | 2018w15   4669.5    5946    27.34 |
 13. | 2018w16   4669.5    4449    -4.72 |
 14. | 2018w17   4669.5    4820     3.22 |
 15. | 2018w18   4669.5    5043        8 |
     |-----------------------------------|
 16. | 2018w19   4669.5    4685      .33 |
 17. | 2018w20   4669.5    4431    -5.11 |
 18. | 2018w21   4669.5    3903   -16.42 |
 19. | 2018w22   4669.5    4248    -9.03 |
 20. | 2018w23   4669.5    4473    -4.21 |
     |-----------------------------------|
 21. | 2018w24   4669.5    3953   -15.34 |
 22. | 2018w25   4669.5    4574    -2.05 |
 23. | 2018w26   4669.5    4684      .31 |
 24. | 2018w27   4669.5    4367    -6.48 |
 25. | 2018w28   4669.5    4109      -12 |
     |-----------------------------------|
 26. | 2018w29   4669.5    4277    -8.41 |
 27. | 2018w30   4669.5    3809   -18.43 |
 28. | 2018w31   4669.5    3489   -25.28 |
 29. | 2018w32   4669.5    4199   -10.08 |
 30. | 2018w33   4669.5    3767   -19.33 |
     |-----------------------------------|
 31. | 2018w34   4669.5    3763   -19.41 |
 32. | 2018w35   4669.5    3186   -31.77 |
 33. | 2018w36   4669.5    3536   -24.27 |
 34. | 2018w37   4669.5    3586    -23.2 |
 35. | 2018w38   4669.5    9587   105.31 |
     |-----------------------------------|
 36. | 2018w39   4669.5    4508    -3.46 |
 37. | 2018w40   4669.5    4325    -7.38 |
 38. | 2018w41   4669.5    3981   -14.74 |
 39. | 2018w42   4669.5    4424    -5.26 |
 40. | 2018w43   4669.5    4386    -6.07 |
     |-----------------------------------|
 41. | 2018w44   4669.5    3321   -28.88 |
 42. | 2018w45   4669.5    4175   -10.59 |
 43. | 2018w46   4669.5    4047   -13.33 |
 44. | 2018w47   4669.5    4606    -1.36 |
 45. | 2018w48   4669.5    3791   -18.81 |
     |-----------------------------------|
 46. | 2018w49   4669.5    3596   -22.99 |
 47. | 2018w50   4669.5    3689      -21 |
 48. | 2018w51   4669.5    3615   -22.58 |
 49. | 2018w52   4669.5    3687   -21.04 |
 50. |  2019w1   4669.5    4584    -1.83 |
     |-----------------------------------|
 51. |  2019w2   4669.5    6102    30.68 |
 52. |  2019w3   4669.5    5776     23.7 |
 53. |  2019w4   4669.5    4582    -1.87 |
 54. |  2019w5   4669.5    4408     -5.6 |
 55. |  2019w6   4669.5    4505    -3.52 |
     |-----------------------------------|
 56. |  2019w7   4669.5    4259    -8.79 |
 57. |  2019w8   4669.5    4314    -7.61 |
 58. |  2019w9   4669.5    4726     1.21 |
 59. | 2019w10   4669.5    4979     6.63 |
 60. | 2019w11   4669.5    4295    -8.02 |
     |-----------------------------------|
 61. | 2019w12   4669.5    4690      .44 |
 62. | 2019w13   4669.5    5728    22.67 |
 63. | 2019w14   4669.5    4695      .55 |
 64. | 2019w15   4669.5    5253     12.5 |
 65. | 2019w16   4669.5    4880     4.51 |
     |-----------------------------------|
 66. | 2019w17   4669.5    4260    -8.77 |
 67. | 2019w18   4669.5    4817     3.16 |
 68. | 2019w19   4669.5    5002     7.12 |
 69. | 2019w20   4669.5    5596    19.84 |
 70. | 2019w21   4669.5    4693       .5 |
     |-----------------------------------|
 71. | 2019w22   4669.5    4342    -7.01 |
 72. | 2019w23   4669.5    4597    -1.55 |
 73. | 2019w24   4669.5    5373    15.07 |
 74. | 2019w25   4669.5    4629     -.87 |
 75. | 2019w26   4669.5    4672      .05 |
     |-----------------------------------|
 76. | 2019w27   4669.5    3882   -16.86 |
 77. | 2019w28   4669.5    4462    -4.44 |
 78. | 2019w29   4669.5    4005   -14.23 |
 79. | 2019w30   4669.5    4377    -6.26 |
 80. | 2019w31   4669.5    3603   -22.84 |
     |-----------------------------------|
 81. | 2019w32   4669.5    3346   -28.34 |
 82. | 2019w33   4669.5    3965   -15.09 |
 83. | 2019w34   4669.5    3811   -18.39 |
 84. | 2019w35   4669.5    3579   -23.35 |
 85. | 2019w36   4669.5    3683   -21.13 |
     |-----------------------------------|
 86. | 2019w37   4669.5    4005   -14.23 |
 87. | 2019w38   4669.5    4382    -6.16 |
 88. | 2019w39   4669.5    4348    -6.89 |
 89. | 2019w40   4669.5    4209    -9.86 |
 90. | 2019w41   4669.5    4701      .67 |
     |-----------------------------------|
 91. | 2019w42   4669.5    5160     10.5 |
 92. | 2019w43   4669.5    5375    15.11 |
 93. | 2019w44   4669.5    4816     3.14 |
 94. | 2019w45   4669.5    4753     1.79 |
 95. | 2019w46   4669.5   11070   137.07 |
     |-----------------------------------|
 96. | 2019w47   4669.5   20397   336.81 |
 97. | 2019w48   4669.5    6271     34.3 |
 98. | 2019w49   4669.5    4650     -.42 |
 99. | 2019w50   4669.5    4832     3.48 |
100. | 2019w51   4669.5    6066    29.91 |
     |-----------------------------------|
101. | 2019w52   4669.5    7058    51.15 |
102. |  2020w1   4669.5    5745    23.03 |
103. |  2020w2   4669.5    5395    15.54 |
104. |  2020w3   4669.5    7247     55.2 |
105. |  2020w4   4669.5    6646    42.33 |
     |-----------------------------------|
106. |  2020w5   4669.5    6756    44.68 |
107. |  2020w6   4669.5    5573    19.35 |
108. |  2020w7   4669.5    6923    48.26 |
109. |  2020w8   4669.5    6314    35.22 |
110. |  2020w9   4669.5    5237    12.15 |
     |-----------------------------------|
111. | 2020w10   4669.5    4622    -1.02 |
112. | 2020w11   4669.5    5109     9.41 |
113. | 2020w12   4669.5    5603    19.99 |
114. | 2020w13   4669.5    5392    15.47 |
115. | 2020w14   4669.5    6061     29.8 |
     |-----------------------------------|
116. | 2020w15   4669.5    5094     9.09 |
117. | 2020w16   4669.5    5052     8.19 |
118. | 2020w17   4669.5    4539    -2.79 |
119. | 2020w18   4669.5    5699    22.05 |
120. | 2020w19   4669.5    5648    20.96 |
     |-----------------------------------|
121. | 2020w20   4669.5    5802    24.25 |
122. | 2020w21   4669.5    5334    14.23 |
123. | 2020w22   4669.5    4662     -.16 |
124. | 2020w23   4669.5    4676      .14 |
125. | 2020w24   4669.5    4190   -10.27 |
     |-----------------------------------|
126. | 2020w25   4669.5    4366     -6.5 |
127. | 2020w26   4669.5    4474    -4.19 |
128. | 2020w27   4669.5    4630     -.85 |
129. | 2020w28   4669.5    4673      .07 |
130. | 2020w29   4669.5    4485    -3.95 |
     |-----------------------------------|
131. | 2020w30   4669.5    4518    -3.24 |
132. | 2020w31   4669.5    4963     6.29 |
133. | 2020w32   4669.5    4074   -12.75 |
134. | 2020w33   4669.5    3986   -14.64 |
135. | 2020w34   4669.5    5330    14.14 |
     |-----------------------------------|
136. | 2020w35   4669.5    5974    27.94 |
137. | 2020w36   4669.5    4667     -.05 |
138. | 2020w37   4669.5    4290    -8.13 |
139. | 2020w38   4669.5    4983     6.71 |
140. | 2020w39   4669.5    4227    -9.48 |
     |-----------------------------------|
141. | 2020w40   4669.5    4762     1.98 |
142. | 2020w41   4669.5    4752     1.77 |
143. | 2020w42   4669.5    4826     3.35 |
144. | 2020w43   4669.5    5216     11.7 |
145. | 2020w44   4669.5    5142    10.12 |
     |-----------------------------------|
146. | 2020w45   4669.5    4506     -3.5 |
     +-----------------------------------+

A few data for difference (pos: >=0 compares to median; neg <0 compares to median). Data shows when weeks have higher total merit than median, it usually increases +15.5 % (IQR = 4.5 - 36.9%). When weeks have lower total merit than median, it usually decreases -8.8% (IQR = -16.9% to - 4.2%)
Diff positive (>=0)

Code:

    variable |         N      mean        sd       p50       p25       p75       min       max
-------------+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     diffpos |      73.0      42.4      83.3      15.5       4.5      36.9       0.1     497.9
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Diff negative

Code:

    variable |         N      mean        sd       p50       p25       p75       min       max
-------------+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     diffneg |      73.0     -10.9       8.2      -8.8     -16.9      -4.2     -31.8      -0.1
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[The Sceptical Chymist]

I hope not.  On the other hand, I haven't seen many complaints about it in Meta lately.

Makes me wonder how many members are really concerned with earning merits and/or ranking up these days--plus if I'm not mistaken forum traffic has decreased significantly as of late, and I've certainly noticed a dearth of interesting threads in the past few months.  Don't know what's going on, but I'd sure like to.  Are people losing interest in the forum?  Bitcoin?  Dunno.

As for me, I've been seriously slacking this month and have been a piss-poor excuse for a merit source.  I'm going to try to make an effort to distribute more merits, but lately I just haven't had the time.  That also makes me curious as to how active the other merit sources are, since we don't get any data on that that I know of.

[suchmoon]

Is there some other website I can check for correct merit stats?

https://bpip.org/smerit.aspx?&from=*&start=2020-11-09T00:00:00&end=2020-11-15T23:59:59#cphBody_lsummerit

Ok, it's 4742, which makes me question my own data now

Actually I know there is an issue with 50 merits sent by theymos to GazetaBitcoin; possibly some other discrepancies; but the total is definitely a lot more than 2787 merits and there is no huge decrease in that week.

[hosseinimr93]

Actually I know there is an issue with 50 merits sent by theymos to GazetaBitcoin; possibly some other discrepancies; but the total is definitely a lot more than 2787 merits and there is no huge decrease in that week.

Since DdmrDdmr updates the merit dashboard every Friday after theymos publishes the merit data, I think that we should wait until the next update on November 20 to see the correct data for the week ending on November 15.
The last update was made on November 13. So, the number shown for week November 9-15 is actually number of merits distributed between November 9 and November 13.

Also, the decline at the end of charts shown above is because the November has not ended yet.

[suchmoon]

Since DdmrDdmr updates the merit dashboard every Friday after theymos publishes the merit data, I think that we should wait until the next update on November 20 to see the correct data for the week ending on November 15.
The last update was made on November 13. So, the number shown for week November 9-15 is actually number of merits distributed between November 9 and November 13.

There you go, mystery solved.

That's not to say we couldn't send more merits... we're barely sending half of what we should: ~21k merit source allocation, ~21k total sent per month, meaning that not every user sends out their earned merits, or not every merit source sends out their full allocation, or a combination thereof.

[tranthidung]

Also, the decline at the end of charts shown above is because the November has not ended yet.

The last Friday merit data dump is ended at 13nov2020 02:49:22 GMT time. Just less than first 3 hours of 13nov2020. Totally, there are 87 merit distributed in that short censored period of 13nov2020.

Data is for 146 weeks (with latest Friday merit data dump):

• Las week - 2020w46 is dropped because it has 3 days, last day is incompleted day.

[Welsh]

Definitely can't speak on behalf of everyone here, but since Covid struck I've been up to my eye balls in work related stuff. I'm assuming many others have also experienced this, since the workforce of each company has likely reduced their live employees, and placed them on support such as furlough, resulting in the few that are lucky enough to be deemed essential are carrying the entire workload of the entire company. This would likely have an effect on the merit distribution, and overall the activity levels. Something else, I think that has likely dipped temporarily, although the boom in Bitcoin price may have disguised that a little bit.

Anyway, my merit distribution along with activity has certainly been impacted by recent events, however it does seem to be slowly getting better. It might be interesting for the statistics guys to evaluate this, as restrictions, and economies get back online which I believe most countries are making progress towards.

[tranthidung]

Anyway, my merit distribution along with activity has certainly been impacted by recent events, however it does seem to be slowly getting better. It might be interesting for the statistics guys to evaluate this, as restrictions, and economies get back online which I believe most countries are making progress towards.

It is difficult to get any causal data interpretation when using different data sets from different sources and data collection methodologies are unknown. These charts are visually presenting a combination of data and with some unknown bias factors.

The 2020 plot (I used a multiplier at 10 for daily merit to get better visualization on the plot). The pandemic, lockdown, economic status probably did not affect (or unsignificantly affect) daily merit distributions (of course, there are bias factors are not taken into considerations here).

The unemployment rate in Europe is given by Lucius.

Source

[khaled0111]

We need more fresh merit sources.
some of the old merit sources allocation must be revised.

Up or down

this is not going to work as most of those who frequent this board are either already merit sources or merit source wanna be.

[Jet Cash]

We need more fresh merit sources.
some of the old merit sources allocation must be revised.
End of the debate /.

Up or down

[DdmrDdmr]

As stated, the last week’s data is partial, and still lacks the whole weekend’s data to make up for the complete week (the most recent week’s data is completed on the following Friday, in accordance to the Merit.txt file content).

Overall merit distribution numbers have gone down somewhat since the beginning of year, but while the first few months of 2020 seemed to still have been under the spell of last year’s Merits Source allocation distribution, the last 9 months are pretty flat overall (senders and receivers too).

For whatever cumulative of reasons, Merit Source redistribution had a noticeable effect for 3 or a few months, but then slid back into the comfort zone in terms of numbers (20-22k/month). Perhaps some automated rebalance (+/-) every 3 months could spur things up a bit.

Designating additional Merit sources still requires a high degree of centralized trust, and a global overview of where a Merit Source could be helpful. A concept such as a delegate merit source may help. @Jet Cash used the term "dMerits" back in 2018, and the idea would build on top of that: Allow for Merit Sources to designate 1 Delegate Merit Source, and transfer a percentage of their own allowance (sMerits; not having to merit them first so they could sMerit others).
The idea behind being that you’d have more eyes on the board, derive new sources through delegation (delegating therefore the required conceptual trust on level down the chain). Of course it may not be ideal, since the Merit Source and delegate may roam the same boards and perhaps have similar meriting likes.

The ideal approach may be to have more completely independent Merit Sources rather than only playing with increasing sMerit quotas (again, looking to extend diversity in criteria as well as sMerit distribution totals), but since selecting is a long and trust related process, perhaps designation by designation could help.

[Lucius]

We need more fresh merit sources.
some of the old merit sources allocation must be revised.

Of course, the inactive ones need to be replaced with new ones - and as far as I know, there is an interest of many members to become merit sources. Also, when choosing new MS admin should take into account where these members are active, because some current merit sources have put half of the forum on ignore, and often have their favorites - and a lot of good posts are left without merit.

Anyone can do whatever they want with their merit, but I thought that some basic principle is that merit rewards a good post, not the one who wrote that post.

[notblox1]

Designating additional Merit sources still requires a high degree of centralized trust, and a global overview of where a Merit Source could be helpful. A concept such as a delegate merit source may help. @Jet Cash used the term "dMerits" back in 2018, and the idea would build on top of that: Allow for Merit Sources to designate 1 Delegate Merit Source, and transfer a percentage of their own allowance (sMerits; not having to merit them first so they could sMerit others).

Thank you for detailed answer and explanation.
dMerits sounds like an interesting idea but I don't think this will be added any time soon if nothing has been done about it for more than two years.
New merit sources is centralized solution but it would improve current situation.

[LTU_btc]

We need more fresh merit sources.
some of the old merit sources allocation must be revised.

Good point. Correct me if I'm wrong, but it's long time since theymos updated list of merit sources last time. I think he haven't done it in 2020 yet.
Since then some of sources become significantly less active ir inactive at all. Some simply send less their source merits.
I'm not merit source and I don't pretend to become one of them, but I must admit that I also not giving enough merits and I think I'm not only such member. Sometimes I'm just too lazy or simply forget about it.

[LoyceV]

Is there some other website I can check for correct merit stats?

When in doubt, get the raw data. Updated up to last Friday's weekly Merit data dump.

For a quick weekly impression, see LoyceV's Merit data analysis (full data since Jan. 24, 2018; not just 120 days) and search for "Total:"

Definitely can't speak on behalf of everyone here, but since Covid struck I've been up to my eye balls in work related stuff. I'm assuming many others have also experienced this

I've been short on time ever since this year started. 2020 really has it's ways.

Good point. Correct me if I'm wrong, but it's long time since theymos updated list of merit sources last time. I think he haven't done it in 2020 yet.

Correct. If some sources stop sending sMerit, and other sources don't get their source increased, it's inevitable for the total Merit distribution to go down. My source is piling up again too, I've sent less than my source amount in the past 30 days. But there's still more sMerit being sent than right before theymos' last source update.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Surely if some merit sources are inactive for a significant period of time theymos should remove them when he does his next update & appoint new, more active sources. Likewise if current merit sources aren’t getting through their source allowance then they should have it lowered & he should distribute that source allowance to people who get through their source merit allowance, i.e. people like me