Starting to think exchanges are running fractional BTC

[jubalix]

Given BTC in provably moving off exchanges, and everyone who could sell has sold since 2011, I am coming to the view exchanges are running on fractional reserve and selling faked BTC.

[1714059167]

1714059167

[1714059167]

1714059167

[1714059167]

1714059167

[davinchi]

Technically speaking there is one way to actually know if that is true or not, which is just withdraw. If people can withdraw without any problems, that means they do have the bitcoins they claim to have, and if after a certain point people start to have a trouble, it is possible they may not have it.

However considering they are actually quite good at making profit, especially the ones that have huge volume, that means they should probably have more bitcoin than they need, because eventually everyone gives their money to them by way of trading fee and withdrawal fee (which charges 10x more than needed) so that means places like binance should have more bitcoins than the ones deposited all thanks to their profits. This depends on how they manage their business but they should be doing it this way rather than cheating.

[exstasie]

Given BTC in provably moving off exchanges, and everyone who could sell has sold since 2011, I am coming to the view exchanges are running on fractional reserve and selling faked BTC.

Based on that logic, fractional reserve was always inevitable, and just a matter of time. Is that what you're saying?

The "everyone who could sell has sold" argument doesn't hold up. Buyers become sellers over time, and sellers sometimes buy back.

There isn't some linear trajectory where exchanges will eventually just have zero coins on deposit. Price is a determining factor for available supply. As price rises, coins come to market as earlier adopters move to take profit. And as we saw in March, there are sometimes liquidity crises where very large amounts of coins are deposited on exchanges.

[mu_enrico]

This is an old story/suspicion. Ever heard of a "proof of keys" event?

Do your bitcoins really exist?

The answer might seem like an obvious “yes,” but the brewing “Proof of Keys” movement, launching today, argues the answer is not so clear.

If enough people pull their money off exchanges, advocates argue, it’ll expose, and perhaps topple, the ones that are operating like fractional-reserve banks (i.e. keeping only a sliver of depositors’ cash on hand and available for withdrawal).

Source.

[exstasie]

Ever heard of a "proof of keys" event?

Very few people have ever participated. I don't think it's ever made a difference. Most people with funds deposited on exchanges are more concerned about short term volatility than the prospect of fractional reserve.

Come to think of it, we do know Okex and Huobi have run fractional reserves, at least for periods of time: https://cointelegraph.com/news/two-chinese-exchanges-help-themselves-to-user-funds

When they were caught, they had put $150 million worth of customer funds into risky investment schemes. That's significant considering it was happening before the 2017 bubble, so crypto valuations were much lower.

[philipma1957]

Given BTC in provably moving off exchanges, and everyone who could sell has sold since 2011, I am coming to the view exchanges are running on fractional reserve and selling faked BTC.

Well duh it took you this long to think that. 

This has been happening since mt gox.

[jubalix]

Given BTC in provably moving off exchanges, and everyone who could sell has sold since 2011, I am coming to the view exchanges are running on fractional reserve and selling faked BTC.

Well duh it took you this long to think that.  

This has been happening since mt gox.

well yeah ok fair call.

It just I wanted to give it a chance.

10 years into the game and 90% + of everyone that is/was going to sell has sold or been short squeezed into liquidation at some point.

Only true longs remain. This leaves something like a dex/uni swap the most real marker except that wrapped BTC and co is probably fake as well.

[witcher_sense]

Given BTC in provably moving off exchanges, and everyone who could sell has sold since 2011, I am coming to the view exchanges are running on fractional reserve and selling faked BTC.

Even if you are right (I guess you are) and some of the exchanges presented on the cryptocurrency market are running on a fractional reserve, it is not a problem since there are no central banks to bail them out should a bank run occur. Unlike banks, cryptocurrency exchanges are interested in playing by the rules if they want to stay in business.

[Fundamentals Of]

It may be possible but only in certain circumstances like Paypal's kind of Bitcoin services. But if you have an exchange address where your Bitcoin is deposited then you can easily check your balance in the public blockchain using that address to make sure that your exchange wallet's balance is indeed filled with real Bitcoin. If your exchange wallet's balance indicates a certain amount of Bitcoin which does not reflect on the blockchain then you are indeed holding fake Bitcoins. Bitcoin is transparent.

But you also need to withdraw your Bitcoins from exchanges if you intend to just keep it. Don't treat exchange wallets as safe storage facilities of your Bitcoin.

[el kaka22]

I really doubt that it has been going on since mt.gox, I really doubt it has been going on at all. Sure there are exchanges that does steal from you, but let's not act like this is all the exchanges in the world. Some exchanges which are bad certainly does this and causes people to finally withdraw too much and they collapse and say they have been "hacked" or whatever and they get away with it since it is crypto, very few people have been jailed because of scam in crypto world.

However this is not all exchanges, places like binance, poloniex, bittrex, bitfinex, kraken, coinbase and all those major ones I believe has the money they claim they have, whatever people have in their accounts are available at their wallets I believe which is why I think this is not really correct to assume.

[stompix]

I really doubt that it has been going on since mt.gox, I really doubt it has been going on at all.
<>
Some exchanges which are bad certainly does this and causes people to finally withdraw too much and they collapse

Contradiction much?
Nobody said that all of them are doing so but also there is no way to prove that there is even one that is completely 100% clean.
And although a lot of people are going to hate me for saying this probably the only candidate for it might be Coinbase who are doing so much to be "legal" they are taking a dump on their customers whenever they can.

places like bitfinex

Lol, the creators of the crypto printing machine are on your whitelist?

Even if you are right (I guess you are) and some of the exchanges presented on the cryptocurrency market are running on a fractional reserve, it is not a problem since there are no central banks to bail them out should a bank run occur. Unlike banks, cryptocurrency exchanges are interested in playing by the rules if they want to stay in business.

I think you wanted to say something else here, yes, it is a problem, from MtGox to Quadriga's clients it's one huge problem for anyone storing and dealing with exchanges. And the whole thing of not keeping money on an exchange will not 100% protect you, imagine sending money to Quadriga exactly the day it went belly up 

[Febo]

Given BTC in provably moving off exchanges, and everyone who could sell has sold since 2011, I am coming to the view exchanges are running on fractional reserve and selling faked BTC.

Yes they are. Same with Paypal or other companies that do the same way as Paypal like ABRA. Then we come to lightning, liquid or wrapped bitcoins. Yes I know those last kind lock Bitcoins so cant be used, but still someone might find a way to abuse it.  

[KTChampions]

Given BTC in provably moving off exchanges, and everyone who could sell has sold since 2011, I am coming to the view exchanges are running on fractional reserve and selling faked BTC.

I am sure that in any market condition some exchanges use/have used fractional reservation. In any market, there are dishonest companies that try to gain an advantage by illegal methods. Given the fact that control over market participants is very weak in crypto, it is not surprising that someone violates the rules.

[lukikato]

I really doubt that it has been going on since mt.gox, I really doubt it has been going on at all. Sure there are exchanges that does steal from you, but let's not act like this is all the exchanges in the world. Some exchanges which are bad certainly does this and causes people to finally withdraw too much and they collapse and say they have been "hacked" or whatever and they get away with it since it is crypto, very few people have been jailed because of scam in crypto world.

However this is not all exchanges, places like binance, poloniex, bittrex, bitfinex, kraken, coinbase and all those major ones I believe has the money they claim they have, whatever people have in their accounts are available at their wallets I believe which is why I think this is not really correct to assume.

I agree. problems only on mt gox. we also won't know the bittrex, binance, poloniex etc market will do that. so we should keep each other's money. where we have to keep it because we don't know when evil will come

[Xxmodded]

Now happen with PayPal where make fake price about bitcoin and altcoin where many people buy cryptocurrency there, but not all investors understand with how PayPal take more than 2% when purchasing bitcoin with PayPal. I think why have looking hard way to buy and investing with bitcoin during you have easy way with buy bitcoin and altcoin on exchange market. So if give chance for many platform bitcoin and altcoin sell based on fake price and you not understand when you buy bitcoin or altcoin are not the same with exchange market global price like Binance or Huobi, later always check when to buy or sell bitcoin on some exchange market have the same price or not.

[witcher_sense]

I think you wanted to say something else here, yes, it is a problem, from MtGox to Quadriga's clients it's one huge problem for anyone storing and dealing with exchanges. And the whole thing of not keeping money on an exchange will not 100% protect you, imagine sending money to Quadriga exactly the day it went belly up 

It sounds like bad luck or an exception to the rule. Both MtGox and Quadriga have proven to be insolvent and have been driven out of business by other honest competitive exchanges. The reason I said it wasn't a problem is that unlike in the banking system, exchanges that fail once are commonly no longer a thing. It is a healthy business, a free market for exchanges, in which it is users who decide which exchange to deposit their funds. On such market insolvency and fractional reserve, or put it differently, fraud cannot continue for years because customers have the ability to do inflation checks.

[stompix]

On such market insolvency and fractional reserve, or put it differently, fraud cannot continue for years because customers have the ability to do inflation checks.

This is the thing, they can't continue for long or indefinitely but they still can exist and they will take down a lot of users with them with no chance of repaying, and it's not just the two of them as exstasie mentioned, even OKex is known to have run such a scheme but market conditions favored them, running one in the bull season with BTC and not fiat will be the end of them this time.

Fo the environment this might be better but for the people who are not aware is obvious not, and this is the part I was referring to, in all of the EU we have mandatory insured fund no matter what the bank does a part of the deposits is guaranteed not even in the Cyprus bank crisis did anyone touch deposits below 100 000 euros. With exchanges, there is no such thing, you're cleaning the scene without caring about people caught in the middle.

[KTChampions]

Now happen with PayPal where make fake price about bitcoin and altcoin where many people buy cryptocurrency there, but not all investors understand with how PayPal take more than 2% when purchasing bitcoin with PayPal. I think why have looking hard way to buy and investing with bitcoin during you have easy way with buy bitcoin and altcoin on exchange market. So if give chance for many platform bitcoin and altcoin sell based on fake price and you not understand when you buy bitcoin or altcoin are not the same with exchange market global price like Binance or Huobi, later always check when to buy or sell bitcoin on some exchange market have the same price or not.

Paypal is a risky platform even for ordinary trading operations and even more so for crypto. I have not studied the conditions that they offer, but I am sure that there are many nuances that are written in "small print" that allow them to block your funds, make unauthorized write-offs, etc.

[FanEagle]

I can't say anything about the fractional BTC deal, but I could say that they fake their volume by a big margin so do not assume that they have the money they claim they do. Many places show their fullest of all wallets and claim that is cold wallet and all, but they keep saying there is cold wallets or hot wallets that they hide for security reasons as well, most of the time that one you saw is the full extent of it with maybe some hot wallet as well.

So, they may look like they are a company that has play in this as much as we do and they want success of crypto like we do, but in reality they have absolutely no connection to us at all, they only care about their wealth and not what is good for the community at all. Unlike us, which wants success for crypto as much as what we want.