Bitcoins in 2030

[Myths B]

Bearing thread What's with this odd generation?

On the thread Satoshi said :

Right.  Otherwise we couldn't have a finite limit of 21 million coins, because there would always need to be some minimum reward for generating.  In a few decades when the reward gets too small, the transaction fee will become the main compensation for nodes.  I'm sure that in 20 years there will either be very large transaction volume or no volume.

They're discuss about fee/rewards for miners.. but I could assume Satoshi has little doubt for it(I can see through Satoshi edit the post), yea it's quite hard to predict for next 20 years.
So I'm trying to get table for halving period to period with expected :
Date | Block Reward |
....    | ....                 |
2028 | 1.5625           |
....    | ....                 |

Based expected table above... that is for next 20 years((around).

1.5625 BTC as rewards for those who run the nodes.

Theymos had questions about could that's be profitability for those running the nude? and Satoshi no reply the post anymore.

Based on developments(10 years), does bitcoins went good so far? I mean does bitcoins had good new tech, BIP (Bitcoin Improvement Proposals), cost of electricity or else services period to period?
Does anyone want to sharing about predict for 10 years in new tech... or cost electricity ?
Keys for Bitcoins keep standing is miners, so it's will be talking about they must on side profitable.
If you're have calculator or formula for prices Bitcoins supposed ?
I'm glad to hear/reads your wild predictions. cause it's like one point to predict Bitcoins will be.

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[jackg]

I was here when the block reward was 25. Proportionally a drop to 6.25 from 25 is the same as a drop from 6.25 to 1.5625.

If we're still going after the next two halving, the block reward will be able to stay at that price and the value of the coin will just increase with it - like it has done.

Alternatively, a country with cheap electricity supplies can assist with the mining if they wish as it would still be profitible for them (for example i think some nordic countries are paying 0.05 cents per wkh and Canada is similar). A lot of countries moving to renewable energy also means there may be points when electricity is more redundant than necessary (with things like wind) which can also be channelled into mining.

Hobbyistic miners will also remain a thing and keep growing too...

[mikeywith]

1.5625 BTC as rewards for those who run the nudesnodes.

Running a bitcoin "node" doesn't earn you anything, the mining rewards go to "mining nodes" and given the current nature of mining, at least 90% of the rewards go to people who don't even know how to run a node.

Now back to your question, exactly a year back I posted this thread called "For how long can we actually mine", I tried to evaluate the future of mining and what should bitcoin be worth in order to

1- Mining to be as profitable as it is today.
2- The incentives for mining remains the same.
3- Mining decentralization does not fade away.
4- 51% attack cost / difficulty does not decrease.

And this came out:



This ignores the "unknown" block fees (So the "required" price is less than what shows in that table) because we don't know how will bitcoin be 10 or 20 years from now, are you going to increase block size to meet mass adoption on-chain or are we just going to keep the blockchain exclusive for huge final-settlements that are worth hundreds of thousands of dollars in order to fuel the mining incentives with a small block size?

I tend to agree that the second theory will be more likely, I also seem to prefer that approach (for reasons that are off-topic), but all in all, Bitcoin price is essential to its existence or at least to its securty and reliability.

[Tytanowy Janusz]

Well currently average price for bitcoin transfer is like 3$ and like 3-4k transaction can be put in one block. It means that 9-12k $ in fees goes to miners. With further segwit adoption, implementing new segwit-like updates (f.e Taproot and Schnorr), lightning network we can double or triple this. I think that in next 10 years it might cover lower rewards. Price should also increase since even now bitcoin can be considered as deflationary coin (production - lost coins annually - wrong transfer, lost wallets, sudden death of wallet owners without passing key to family).

[Myths B]

Thanks  @jackg @Tytanowy Janusz

Good explanation by @mikeywithm, given me new things inside Bitcoins, so thanks.

[el kaka22]

2030 is a very very long way out, I doubt that we would really have anything remotely similar by that times, not just in price but even in blockchain.

I think by 2030 we could actually see bitcoin move to a smaller transaction method like lightning network or something else, and we could potentially even see proof of stake in bitcoin as well compared to proof of work depending on how it works out for ethereum, if many people love it, someone will definitely develop the same for bitcoin and people will pressure big companies and so forth to move to that and if there is enough pressure they will do that too.

Long story short by 2030 we are going to be living in a totally different crypto world, which will not be same to what we have right now and price will react accordingly as well.

[elisabetheva]

Thinking of a time that is in a fairly long range is clearly difficult to analyze well, because many possibilities will occur during that very long period of time.

is it impossible that there will be a fundamental change from bitcoin or return to the beginning when it just appeared. everyone cannot predict correctly, but what is clear is that bitcoin would be more powerful if it still existed, because all would use it with ease that might be simpler to do.

we just think about bitcoin for next year, will it bring up a new, more significant ATH? This is precisely what is being awaited at the moment, let us think about another time in 2030 when it is approaching.

[acquafredda]

1.5625 BTC as rewards for those who run the nudesnodes.

Running a bitcoin "node" doesn't earn you anything, the mining rewards go to "mining nodes" and given the current nature of mining, at least 90% of the rewards go to people who don't even know how to run a node.

Now back to your question, exactly a year back I posted this thread called "For how long can we actually mine", I tried to evaluate the future of mining and what should bitcoin be worth in order to

1- Mining to be as profitable as it is today.
2- The incentives for mining remains the same.
3- Mining decentralization does not fade away.
4- 51% attack cost / difficulty does not decrease.

And this came out:



This ignores the "unknown" block fees (So the "required" price is less than what shows in that table) because we don't know how will bitcoin be 10 or 20 years from now, are you going to increase block size to meet mass adoption on-chain or are we just going to keep the blockchain exclusive for huge final-settlements that are worth hundreds of thousands of dollars in order to fuel the mining incentives with a small block size?

I tend to agree that the second theory will be more likely, I also seem to prefer that approach (for reasons that are off-topic), but all in all, Bitcoin price is essential to its existence or at least to its securty and reliability.

Very fascinating scenario. There is also another unknown variable to be considered: how much a dollar will be worth every step on the way and will be the dollar still keeping its dominance as the most common currency in the world? If bitcoin lives up to its own expectations a parabolic rise like the one you imagined it is not impossible at all.

[kentrolla]

Atleast 25k least number? As days pass we have to safe our earnings and plan for the future to me Bitcoin is like a jewel invest now and double it in couple of years.

Many come with different predictions like 100k in next decade or it goes on but we can't expect the same massive pump which happened in the past 10years as countries involve in crypto day by day they might keep a control over this in few years especially the powerful countries so that their economy should be impacted, guys this will happen for sure.

[YOSHIE]

What do you expect in the next 10 years.

Bitcoin continues to grow and progress as time goes by, now I have taught my child about Bitcoin, maybe 10 years to be exact 2030 if, long life, I have retired and enjoy the rest of my life, let my child continue and introduce Bitcoin to others.


Back to topic.
My prediction is Bitcoin for the next 10 years to be precise in 2030.
• In terms of predictive price: $ 500,000/Btc.
• prediction progress: every house in the whole country is already doing transactions with Bitcoin.
• Predicted goods: all products can be purchased with bitcoin, including drinking water to the most luxurious items.

That's all my predictions for the next 10 years, I hope you will enjoy it when 2030 arrives.

[dishku]

What do you expect in the next 10 years.

Bitcoin continues to grow and progress as time goes by, now I have taught my child about Bitcoin, maybe 10 years to be exact 2030 if, long life, I have retired and enjoy the rest of my life, let my child continue and introduce Bitcoin to others.


Back to topic.
My prediction is Bitcoin for the next 10 years to be precise in 2030.
• In terms of predictive price: $ 500,000/Btc.
• prediction progress: every house in the whole country is already doing transactions with Bitcoin.
• Predicted goods: all products can be purchased with bitcoin, including drinking water to the most luxurious items.

That's all my predictions for the next 10 years, I hope you will enjoy it when 2030 arrives.

Agreed with you in current decade BTC will gain mass adoption it start moving towards its goal to become the world most valuable asset. Smart money already entered so this could explode it to the next level. 2030 will be really huge for BTC in term of rea life use case and adoption I also believe this will become true.

[Lucius]

We are certainly not in the position of someone who may have answered these questions 10 years ago, because then Bitcoin was known to a very small number of people - so if we took some references from the past we could speculate about what will happen in 10 years. What is an indisputable fact is the max supply of 21 million BTC, and also that in 10 years about 99% of all BTC will be mined. The amount of new BTC will be almost negligible compared to today, and it is unknown whether the demand will be high even then or will decrease/increase over the years.

What Satoshi himself wrote is that in 20 years (taking 2009 as a reference) there will be a very large number of transactions, or there will be no transactions at all. Therefore, I expect that Bitcoin will be integrated into our society to the extent that it will become recognizable as a currency, but also as a store of value.

[mikeywith]

Very fascinating scenario. There is also another unknown variable to be considered: how much a dollar will be worth every step on the way and will be the dollar still keeping its dominance as the most common currency in the world? If bitcoin lives up to its own expectations a parabolic rise like the one you imagined it is not impossible at all.

That is indeed a factor, but I don't think it holds so much weight, we use the U.S dollar because it's the easiest medium of exchange that we understand, but in reality, bitcoin needs to go up in value against what the majority of the world uses a "currency", miners will have to pay for electricity and make some profit, so whichever medium of exchange they use to pay those bills must drop against the exchange value of Bitcoin.

[philipma1957]

2030 is a very very long way out, I doubt that we would really have anything remotely similar by that times, not just in price but even in blockchain.

I think by 2030 we could actually see bitcoin move to a smaller transaction method like lightning network or something else, and we could potentially even see proof of stake in bitcoin as well compared to proof of work depending on how it works out for ethereum, if many people love it, someone will definitely develop the same for bitcoin and people will pressure big companies and so forth to move to that and if there is enough pressure they will do that too.

Long story short by 2030 we are going to be living in a totally different crypto world, which will not be same to what we have right now and price will react accordingly as well.

Go back to 2012 coins were under 12 even lower at times.
We had very few coins to trade.

I think no one would have thought coins would move from low levels like 10 bucks to over 1000 in 2013.
I think no one would have thought coins would have POS algos.

So much changed since then.

2028 will have lots of change.

other coins will come and go,but some will still be here in 2028.

LTC and DOGE are better suited as cash then BTC.

I see btc more like a US Treasury bond then a dollar bill.

I see LTC and DOGE as cash way more than BTC

but in 2012 I could have purchased 100 coins for 1000 bucks.

So my crystal ball 🔮 was not that good at the time.

I have seen coins as low as six dollars from 2012 to 19x in 2020.
 Now it is 3000x bigger at 18-19k

I do not see coins growing 3000x from 19k to 57,000,000

in the time 2020 to 2028.

[Upgrade00]

I do not see coins growing 3000x from 19k to 57,000,000

in the time 2020 to 2028.

By coins, I assume you mean bitcoin. The price would likely be higher than it is now 8 years from today, I however do not also see it going over $50 million, that would result in an insanely high market cap which I do not believe is sustainable.

The first ten years of Bitcoin was about primary growth, it went from being relatively unknown to topping search metrics and catching the attention of everyone. This kind of growth would not be repeated, and over the next ten years we could see a different kind of growth; Bitcoin evolution.as it gains more adoption and price stability (The value would not always multiply year on year).
Whether or not it would always have its speculative value is yet to be seen.

[philipma1957]

I do not see coins growing 3000x from 19k to 57,000,000

in the time 2020 to 2028.

By coins, I assume you mean bitcoin. The price would likely be higher than it is now 8 years from today, I however do not also see it going over $50 million, that would result in an insanely high market cap which I do not believe is sustainable.

The first ten years of Bitcoin was about primary growth, it went from being relatively unknown to topping search metrics and catching the attention of everyone. This kind of growth would not be repeated, and over the next ten years we could see a different kind of growth; Bitcoin evolution.as it gains more adoption and price stability (The value would not always multiply year on year).
Whether or not it would always have its speculative value is yet to be seen.

I mine if I am to continue mining ⛏  coins  need to go over 40k in 2024 and over 80k in 2028.

Or the diff has to tank.  Diff did have a long downward trend 📉  oct 2018 to may 2019.

Maybe it happens that way.

[FanEagle]

It will definitely be greater than right now, this is a long term project that has an idea that will never die. The financial markets are not even between rich and the poor and crypto makes sure that's gone, hopefully forever. It means by 2030 there will be a lot more money and a lot more people involved with crypto that will be interested in this. This is why I highly believe that there is a big chance we could potentially become a lot greater in price in 10 years.

It won't be as great as the past 10 years, we moved from few dollars to 20 thousand dollars, that type of return will never happen, that would require bitcoin to be tens of millions of dollars per coin and I do not see that anytime soon, but it could easily be 10x higher than right now.

[wxa7115]

Very fascinating scenario. There is also another unknown variable to be considered: how much a dollar will be worth every step on the way and will be the dollar still keeping its dominance as the most common currency in the world? If bitcoin lives up to its own expectations a parabolic rise like the one you imagined it is not impossible at all.

That is indeed a factor, but I don't think it holds so much weight, we use the U.S dollar because it's the easiest medium of exchange that we understand, but in reality, bitcoin needs to go up in value against what the majority of the world uses a "currency", miners will have to pay for electricity and make some profit, so whichever medium of exchange they use to pay those bills must drop against the exchange value of Bitcoin.

Another possibility is that in fact the price of bitcoin is unable to keep up with the costs of mining, so what is next? The mining sector will have to restructure itself and adapt, this happens in all sectors of the economy and I do not see why some people think this as a failure of bitcoin, it will mean simply that too much money was allocated to an industry that was not sustainable for the long term and the more inefficient miners will have to disappear or mine something else while the most efficient miners will have to become even more efficient to remain in business.

So it is not the end of the world if by 2030 or any other year not all miners remain in business since that is a risk they took willingly.

[Twinkledoe]

It will definitely be greater than right now, this is a long term project that has an idea that will never die. The financial markets are not even between rich and the poor and crypto makes sure that's gone, hopefully forever. It means by 2030 there will be a lot more money and a lot more people involved with crypto that will be interested in this. This is why I highly believe that there is a big chance we could potentially become a lot greater in price in 10 years.

It won't be as great as the past 10 years, we moved from few dollars to 20 thousand dollars, that type of return will never happen, that would require bitcoin to be tens of millions of dollars per coin and I do not see that anytime soon, but it could easily be 10x higher than right now.

Positive vibes here. I am also wondering where will I be after 10 years? For sure, I will still be dealing with crypto but interesting what will be the status of this forum by that time? If crypto prevails, this forum will still be alive and will be a valuable source of many information anything related about crypto. The next 5 years is already exciting for crypto enthusiasts.

[Inspiron14]

2030? Very interesting to discuss, but why think about 2030?
is it certain that 2021 Bitcoin will really reach the new all time high?

[sheenshane]

2030? Very interesting to discuss, but why think about 2030?
is it certain that 2021 Bitcoin will really reach the new all time high?

It might be yes it might be no, who knows.

Prediction for Bitcoin price 10 years from now maybe there's a lot of changes since we don't have any superstitious power to know what lies ahead  .

Seriously, paying attention to Satoshi's statement.

I'm sure that in 20 years there will either be very large transaction volume or no volume.

This means even the person who created it doesn't give a guarantee on the future of Bitcoin either it will succeed, or it will fail.  If we will look back on the history of gold, for some reason government tend to ban golds ownership after legalizing it first for they lose control of the properties and assets of their citizens and just legalized it again when they were able to regulate it and subject the gold to their jurisdiction.  Bitcoin's greatest opponent is its ideology of decentralization that is against the government's principle.

Chances are if the government will continue to legalize Bitcoin and gain absolute adoption then I'm not confident that Bitcoin will reach a million of dollars price for the government itself will create a project that will assist and make bitcoin conducive to everyone.  However, if the other way happens then, there's no price we need to predict like what Satoshi mentioned: "no volume at all".

[acquafredda]

Very fascinating scenario. There is also another unknown variable to be considered: how much a dollar will be worth every step on the way and will be the dollar still keeping its dominance as the most common currency in the world? If bitcoin lives up to its own expectations a parabolic rise like the one you imagined it is not impossible at all.

That is indeed a factor, but I don't think it holds so much weight, we use the U.S dollar because it's the easiest medium of exchange that we understand, but in reality, bitcoin needs to go up in value against what the majority of the world uses a "currency", miners will have to pay for electricity and make some profit, so whichever medium of exchange they use to pay those bills must drop against the exchange value of Bitcoin.

As we speak every currency (including commodities like gold, platinum, silver ...) lost their fiat currency value against bitcoin by many orders of magnitude. If this trends stays this way and bitcoin goes parabolic one day we would really have to rethink the whole concept of store-of-value.

[thecodebear]

2030 is a very very long way out, I doubt that we would really have anything remotely similar by that times, not just in price but even in blockchain.

I think by 2030 we could actually see bitcoin move to a smaller transaction method like lightning network or something else, and we could potentially even see proof of stake in bitcoin as well compared to proof of work depending on how it works out for ethereum, if many people love it, someone will definitely develop the same for bitcoin and people will pressure big companies and so forth to move to that and if there is enough pressure they will do that too.

Long story short by 2030 we are going to be living in a totally different crypto world, which will not be same to what we have right now and price will react accordingly as well.

Have you followed the kinds of upgrades Bitcoin makes?

PoS on Bitcoin will NEVER happen. That is a huge change that would fundamentally change the Bitcoin blockchain. It is taking Ethereum multiple years to move to it and those who maintain Bitcoin have zero interest in making such huge changes to Bitcoin's blockchain. It won't happen just if people like Ethereum's PoS system. Bitcoin will forever be PoW. It will be THE Proof of Work blockchain for the world.

At best, by 2030, Bitcoin will have some modest efficiency upgrades to add a little bit more transactions to each block and maybe the LN will take off. Though honestly I think 3rd party services will just take the place of LN, like PayPal. The average person doesn't care how their Bitcoin works and they honestly don't care about decentralization (hell even crypto investors themselves for the most part don't care THAT much about decentralization - the super centralized XRP is still #3 in marketcap!), they just want Bitcoin with ease of use. And Paypal or the Cash App or whatever other payment app will be easier to use then the LN.

Bitcoin does really need a hard fork at some point in order to increase its blocksize. LN mass usage isn't even possible with current block sizes (it would take years or even decades to just onboard a significant part of the population), so Bitcoin as a massively used payment system outside of just using 3rd party companies like PayPal who throw numbers around databases and occasionally square up on the blockchain is only possible with much larger blocks. The best solution would be a modest block increase baked into each halving event. But Bitcoin devs have shown zero interest in hard forks so I don't expect Bitcoin to ever get any hard forks in the future and it will have to rely on very modest upgrades from as Bitcoin is now and as Bitcoin has been since Satoshi.

Without greater transaction volume in the blocks, the population will be forced to go the 3rd party company route (PayPal, etc) for transactions. This will make crypto/decentralization fans very angry, but the masses will be perfectly fine and happy with it. If you want to spend Bitcoin you'll just send some of yours to your money app or your bank account and they'll control it for you and let you spend it when you want. You'll be able to own Bitcoin in a decentralized manner (as always), but you'll pretty much have to spend it in a centralized way through some company's money app or with your bank card. Essentially, you'll be indirectly paying the seller cash - you'll be allowing your bank or 3rd party service to sell your bitcoin on an exchange in order to make that purchase in cash for you.

That's fine and all. The only problem is that when mining rewards get REAL small, like in a few decades, and the Bitcoin price isn't the many millions of dollars it needs to be to maintain current profit levels for miners, and they are still stuck at current sized blocks, it's going to lead people to drop out of mining bitcoin. This will have a three-fold effect: centralizing bitcoin mining because hobby miners will get dropped who don't have the efficiency of scale that mining companies do, making bitcoin less secure, and rising bitcoin transaction fees because miners start simply refusing to take low fees so that it only makes sense to move your bitcoin on the blockchain if you are moving perhaps thousands of dollars worth of bitcoin. The obvious answer is increasing the blocksize to make bitcoin mining future proof, but at least with people who maintain bitcoin so far it doesn't look like that will happen, perhaps in a few decades when this is becoming a very dire situation for Bitcoin we will have more forward thinking people who would be willing to hard fork bitcoin but then you also run into the problem that Bitcoin is then at that point huge, many times larger than now, which could make a smooth hard fork much harder to do than if it were done now or soon in the still relatively early days of Bitcoin.

In 10 years mining rewards for Bitcoin will still be fine. The price should well outstrip what miners need to continue making the profits they are used to, but in the more advanced future there will be problems as the rewards continue to halve but there is only so much money in the world that can go into Bitcoin to raise the price to support miners.

[acquafredda]

To add some bits to thecodebear's post, I would say that bitcoin does not really need to change. It only needs a few upgrades and that is enough for a protocol which is make a killing since 2009. All the bitcoin network fundamentals are looking strong, hence no need to change.
Let us hope for a quick Taproot activation so that we can see some nice privacy improvements.

[Oilacris]

2030 of course the Bitcoin price will have reached more than $ 100k,
some have even predicted that 2021 bitcoin price will be at $ 300k, I can't imagine for 2030,
whether Bitcoin will continue to life or will die.

When we do talk about future then we cant really tell off precise numbers and we cant even tell if bitcoin would be still alive and kicking into those years.

Its quite unrealistic on talking about 100k in a short or in decades time because if we do base up on how it moves into its price a decade time then it wont
really be that easy one.

Though the level of adoption is totally different compared to those older years then we might be seeing a different thing or movement but it
wont really be going into that kind of level.