When moon? ($500k / $1 million / $2 million)

[jaberwock]

Do not really worry about what it is doing right now, do not worry about what it will be neither, just focus on what you can do to get yourself richer in this market.

I understand that some people want the whole market to get better and looking for ways how it could be done, but an individual can only care for himself before he could care about the whole market and the great thing about bitcoin is that if you care about yourself, you are caring about the market as well.

Think of it this way, if you want to make money with bitcoin, what can you do? You can actually buy bitcoin and hold right? When everybody does that, what happens? Bitcoin price goes up and market gets better and everyone earns money. So we could all just be selfish and still make everyone money.

[Sled]

$500k, $1million, $2million, that is too much mate.
In 20, years, 40 years, I'm really old that time and I'm not sure if I'm still alive.

How is that possible? When it comes to real talk,  that is just like a dream where chances are not clear and I was not expecting such a rally even we say that there is a huge Bitcoin demand in the market. Love to think about it but the question is, have someone make an investment during that time? Or, people are getting back to fiat?

[thecodebear]

As it stands, I'm beginning to think this sideways near the top is a distribution phase before the market slow bleeds into a crash.

Given that you have experience with TA, you can certainly estimate much better what can happen in the market. However, I am a bit more optimistic, and I think that given all the circumstances, there will not be any drastic corrections.

Honestly, I'm not trying to predict. Years of trading has taught me that markets are quite unpredictable. I think more so in terms of possibilities. Anyone who rules out the possibility of a painful correction to the $13,000s or even the $11,000s is naive. It's something we need to be prepared for.

I like the way David (from the Godmode analysis thread) approaches this. Corrections are always inevitable, but there are two types of corrections: time corrections and price corrections. Time corrections are sideways without deep declines. Price corrections are deep and crash-like. It's impossible to know before the fact which one is coming.

The solution to the pandemic is now only a matter of time (months), the new US administration cannot be worse than the last (or maybe it can?), so some things may be normalized in terms of trade with China. Also, institutional money is constantly flowing into the BTC market, and halving has not yet shown its true effects.

Consequently, the conditions for a perfect storm (bull run) are becoming more likely in the next year or maybe a year later.

Don't get me wrong. I'm very bullish on BTC in the next year. I'm probably more bullish than almost anyone around here, given how few can even conceive of $500K or $1M valuations. I'm just talking about short term and mid term (weeks and months) corrections to the ongoing bull trend.

I've been expecting a correction back to $11k range ever since it went to high $15,000s. But then it only briefly dipped to $14.3k and surged to $19k. Consequently I entirely missed the $15k-$19k run because I had gone fully back into cash in my trading account in the $15000's, waiting for the correction back to $11k!

At $19k I figured it'd dip at least back to $13000s and the whole process of correction and recovery would take a couple months. But at this point I think I was wrong. Looks like this is a time correction, as price has been ranging mostly in $18k's and $19k's with a couple brief dips to $16k's and $17k's. A fall below $16k doesn't look likely anymore. It's been almost a month now since it first hit $18k and price is still holding. It may still dip down to $11k-$13k, but before I was 100% sure it would, now I think it is much more likely to never see those prices again and will instead surge over $20k soon and go a good bit higher so the next more substantial correction would probably only go down to $16k+ area and bounce up off that pretty quickly.

The more time price doesn't correct lower, the more time institutions have to buy up billions of dollars of bitcoin, making it harder and harder to get a deep correction - sucking up all the supply so that the price gets less and less likely to have any chance of correcting lower. I think too much supply has been sucked up by institutional investors these past ~26 days since BTC hit $18k so that a correction back to the last major support ($11k) is no longer even needed and support is actually $16k now. The market just looks like it leaped over previous support levels and won't even bother going back down to check in on them one last time.

On top of the normal hundreds of millions of dollars Grayscale buys up every week, MicroStrategy is likely going to be buying up ~$640 million BTC in the next couple weeks, since they completed their stock sale a few days ago. Just too much supply is being taken out of sellers hands and being put in long term holds by institutional players for us to see a solid correction from current price levels.

[Lucius]

thecodebear, interesting thinking - the law of supply and demand is more than visible here, and so much money going in only one direction with fewer and fewer new BTCs on the market does not allow old whales to manipulate the market. Here it just shows what it means to have a limited amount of something that is in high demand, the price goes up or stays relatively stable regardless of all the whales and their bots.

We can say that Grayscale and Microstrategy are old news, but it is especially interesting to me that another big player with an investment of $100 million has joined the game. Massachusetts Mutual Life Insurance Co is definitely interesting because in total they are worth as much as an incredible $235 billion, and if this $100 million is just testing, and that's exactly what JPMorgan suggests - then the $600 billion mentioned in the article could very easily mean that the $1 trillion market cap looks more and more realistic in near future.

If pension funds and insurance companies in the U.S., euro area, U.K. and Japan allocate 1% of assets to Bitcoin, that would result in additional Bitcoin demand of $600 billion, the strategists said. The cryptocurrency’s current market capitalization is about $356 billion, according to CoinMarketCap.

[YOSHIE]

As Bitcoin possibly gears up to try to hit $100k in the next year, and far higher prices seem an almost certainty in the future, I want to know when you think Bitcoin will hit $500k, $1 million and $2 million?

Honest if you personally ask me about it and I will answer "Don't Know".

However, for that everyone hopes that Bitcoin will have a change from previous years, I mean in 2017, I can only hope that all of this can be achieved 1 million and so on.
We have seen the price of Bitcoin in 2017 and now a lot of people change their lives from an economic point of view, if they save some Bitcoin back then, predictions continue to emerge in various circles, for now no one can be sure about Bitcoin 2025.2030 and so on, I hope Bitcoin will have a good value in 2021.

[newwest]

Although anything is very much possible with Bitcoin but i doubt what will happen if Bitcoin hit around $1million in ten years to come or more, remembering that, from where we are to ten years to come is just time difference, the price as at the moment is $18.5k and for anyone to speculate Bitcoin price in ten years to hit $1m or $300k seem impossible except there are more adoption like what we saw recently with institutional investors.

This all high prices like 500k/1 million $ just looks good and might even get some in dreams where bitcoin reaches those levels etc, but personally do not think it might reach those levels in coming years. Even crossing 50k itself will be a big thing for 2021 or in coming time and 100k itself will be like best thing to happen. Also, not to forget if it happens to falls then how long it may take to recover needs to be also looked.

[KTChampions]

~
I think we will see $500k hit for the first time in the second half of this decade.
$1 million will first be hit in the early 2030's.
$2 million will first be hit before 2040.
~

I do not mind discussing any forecast, but what is the point of discussing what we will be in 2040? Technologies are developing at such a speed that we cannot even be sure that the appearance of a person of the future will be similar to the appearance of a modern person. It is all the more difficult and pointless to discuss the price of bitcoin at such a time.

[thecodebear]

thecodebear, interesting thinking - the law of supply and demand is more than visible here, and so much money going in only one direction with fewer and fewer new BTCs on the market does not allow old whales to manipulate the market. Here it just shows what it means to have a limited amount of something that is in high demand, the price goes up or stays relatively stable regardless of all the whales and their bots.

We can say that Grayscale and Microstrategy are old news, but it is especially interesting to me that another big player with an investment of $100 million has joined the game. Massachusetts Mutual Life Insurance Co is definitely interesting because in total they are worth as much as an incredible $235 billion, and if this $100 million is just testing, and that's exactly what JPMorgan suggests - then the $600 billion mentioned in the article could very easily mean that the $1 trillion market cap looks more and more realistic in near future.

If pension funds and insurance companies in the U.S., euro area, U.K. and Japan allocate 1% of assets to Bitcoin, that would result in additional Bitcoin demand of $600 billion, the strategists said. The cryptocurrency’s current market capitalization is about $356 billion, according to CoinMarketCap.

Yea for sure I bet the $100 million Mass Mutual put in is just testing the waters. What they allocated to BTC so far is just 0.04237% of their fund. No company is gonna go straight into BTC with their full desired amount right away. Just like MicroStrategy started with a $250 million buy and is about to make its 4th purchase, which will bring them to a total of just over $1.1 Billion in bought bitcoin.

I'm confident we will be hearing about Mass Mutual loading up at least several hundred million more in BTC next year. Even a billion dollars would still be less than half a percent of their overall fund so that'd still be a very conservative amount of money to put into Bitcoin. And yes I'm sure ever since news of the Mass Mutual buy came out, other insurance companies and pension funds in that apparently $60 trillion market are looking into dipping their toes into Bitcoin. I bet we'll hear of at least a few billion dollars, and maybe even tens of billions, from funds in those two sectors come into Bitcoin next year alone, and far more in the years to come - as you say, only 1% would be $600 billion, so it wouldn't surprise me if by the end of this decade over $1 trillion of bitcoin is bought by those two sectors alone. Makes you realize just how much money there is floating out in the world so that even if just 1-2% of several large sectors like this were brought into Bitcoin it would easily send bitcoin price up to around the $1 million mark.

[acener]

It is still too far to predict those price and we couldn'tbe so sure if Bitcoin could really hit that high.
we are still having a hard time reaching or breaking $20K so I wouldn't be so excited about those kind of prediction.
But I agree that Bitcoin could go high but I don't know how high it would fly in the future maybe your prediction could also come true.

[ScamViruS]

It is still too far to predict those price and we couldn'tbe so sure if Bitcoin could really hit that high.
we are still having a hard time reaching or breaking $20K so I wouldn't be so excited about those kind of prediction.
But I agree that Bitcoin could go high but I don't know how high it would fly in the future maybe your prediction could also come true.

Yes you are right. We can still only predict what the price of Bitcoin will be in the future, but in reality we do not know when it will be. Since the target is very large, it will take time to reach that stage.

Bitcoin has not yet crossed the last ath although currently Bitcoin is close to the last ath we can expect something good here. If Bitcoin goes to a new ath then the crypto community might see something huge.

[hahay]

Don't know when that will be achieved but at least with bitcoin it can continue to be useful for a long time, I think that's enough because it will also continue to make the price go up. If more adoption will make a more stable price, maybe $500 can be reached in the next bull run, but if the volatility is very high then to reach that first target I think it's still difficult because market behavior is not always positive.

[exstasie]

The more time price doesn't correct lower, the more time institutions have to buy up billions of dollars of bitcoin, making it harder and harder to get a deep correction - sucking up all the supply so that the price gets less and less likely to have any chance of correcting lower. I think too much supply has been sucked up by institutional investors these past ~26 days since BTC hit $18k so that a correction back to the last major support ($11k) is no longer even needed and support is actually $16k now. The market just looks like it leaped over previous support levels and won't even bother going back down to check in on them one last time.

Possible. Remember though, this is just one narrative. We don't know exactly what's happening behind the scenes. Plenty of institutions may be accumulating, but that doesn't mean they are determined to prop prices up.

Sometimes price hangs for weeks until it feels like it can't possibly fall. And then it does. That's what maximum pain is all about: making everyone believe one direction is inevitable, before the market goes in the other. This traps lots of speculators and sets mid term trends into motion.

It's impossible to know whether this is an accumulation or distribution phase until the trading range is broken. Until then, we're all just guessing.

On top of the normal hundreds of millions of dollars Grayscale buys up every week, MicroStrategy is likely going to be buying up ~$640 million BTC in the next couple weeks, since they completed their stock sale a few days ago. Just too much supply is being taken out of sellers hands and being put in long term holds by institutional players for us to see a solid correction from current price levels.

What if, in the coming weeks, Grayscale's inflows dry up? Microstrategy is already out of cash and buying BTC on leverage, so demand from them is obviously not going to last long.

[error08]

It seems unrealistic for bitcoin to hit those levels without a specific reason to drive the price. It is more likely to max out at 50k-100k for the next decade and that is still a great thing because it has come such a long way in it's first 10 years of existence. If there was a substantial amount of extra stimulus in an effort to recover from the damage caused by Covid, there is a chance that some of that money could flood into bitcoin.

it seems unrealistic at this time, imagine people said bitcoin will reach $20k back in 2010 when it just launched, did anyone say that was unrealistic? Probably yes.
Nonetheless, no one can say for sure that bitcoin will ever or never reach that point, there is a reason and potential to achieve that price such as more adoption, supply and demand. If fiat currency continues to be eroded by inflation so that its value is depreciated, it is not surprising that the price of commodities such as gold has continued to increase for thousands of years, in contrast to bitcoin, which the price increases rapidly due to various reasons.

[thecodebear]

The more time price doesn't correct lower, the more time institutions have to buy up billions of dollars of bitcoin, making it harder and harder to get a deep correction - sucking up all the supply so that the price gets less and less likely to have any chance of correcting lower. I think too much supply has been sucked up by institutional investors these past ~26 days since BTC hit $18k so that a correction back to the last major support ($11k) is no longer even needed and support is actually $16k now. The market just looks like it leaped over previous support levels and won't even bother going back down to check in on them one last time.

Possible. Remember though, this is just one narrative. We don't know exactly what's happening behind the scenes. Plenty of institutions may be accumulating, but that doesn't mean they are determined to prop prices up.

Sometimes price hangs for weeks until it feels like it can't possibly fall. And then it does. That's what maximum pain is all about: making everyone believe one direction is inevitable, before the market goes in the other. This traps lots of speculators and sets mid term trends into motion.

It's impossible to know whether this is an accumulation or distribution phase until the trading range is broken. Until then, we're all just guessing.

On top of the normal hundreds of millions of dollars Grayscale buys up every week, MicroStrategy is likely going to be buying up ~$640 million BTC in the next couple weeks, since they completed their stock sale a few days ago. Just too much supply is being taken out of sellers hands and being put in long term holds by institutional players for us to see a solid correction from current price levels.

What if, in the coming weeks, Grayscale's inflows dry up? Microstrategy is already out of cash and buying BTC on leverage, so demand from them is obviously not going to last long.

To the first part, absolutely. Could certainly still drop, just feels to me like it won't at this point, after previously I had been absolutely expecting it to.

To the second part, likelihood of Grayscale inflows drying up seems very small. If anything inflows have been continually increasing all year and will likely keep increasing as Wall St investor types are finally starting to feel comfortable with buying Bitcoin and we are just at the beginning of this trend. Also I'm not sure what this is about Microstrategy buying on leverage, were some of their previous buys on leverage? They just did a stock sale so the upcoming buy is all new money they have now and won't be on leverage. I mean obviously I expect this will be the last BTC buy they do. But a $635 million buy will certainly help keep the market high - Coinbase does their buys for them, and at $19k that'd be ~33,000 BTC. For comparison, right now the 24 hour volume of BTC on Coinbase is only about 8700 BTC. The broader point is that in the near term Grayscale will continue soaking up supply and Microstrategy is about to take a bunch of supply off the market, and in general you have institutional investors buying up enough that I doubt there is enough supply floating in the market to allow a 30+% drop from these prices.

[exstasie]

Also I'm not sure what this is about Microstrategy buying on leverage, were some of their previous buys on leverage? They just did a stock sale so the upcoming buy is all new money they have now and won't be on leverage.

What they actually did was issue debt notes, which cost interest to service, and which will be convertible to cash or Class A shares.

They borrowed cash to go long on leverage. This is exactly what margin traders do.

I mean obviously I expect this will be the last BTC buy they do. But a $635 million buy will certainly help keep the market high - Coinbase does their buys for them, and at $19k that'd be ~33,000 BTC.

Sure, all I'm saying is we don't know how much supply there is to absorb in this range. It may eventually outweigh the demand. It's possible that once Microstrategy and institutional buyers with similar appetite have finished buying, that excess supply still exists in this sub-$20K range. In fact, that is exactly what whales selling in this range are betting on.

Who is right? Microstrategy or the early Bitcoin adopters currently dumping on them? Stay tuned to find out.

[BigBoy89]

IMO we will not see such numbers in the next ten year at least.

Maybe after another couple of halving, perhaps only in our dreams. Its too far away from now to have realistic speculation.

[thecodebear]

Also I'm not sure what this is about Microstrategy buying on leverage, were some of their previous buys on leverage? They just did a stock sale so the upcoming buy is all new money they have now and won't be on leverage.

What they actually did was issue debt notes, which cost interest to service, and which will be convertible to cash or Class A shares.

They borrowed cash to go long on leverage. This is exactly what margin traders do.

Oh interesting I didn't realize that.

I'm not worried for the company's risk though haha, they're already up like $300 million on their previous purchases. But good to know!

[exstasie]

What they actually did was issue debt notes, which cost interest to service, and which will be convertible to cash or Class A shares.

They borrowed cash to go long on leverage. This is exactly what margin traders do.

Oh interesting I didn't realize that.

I'm not worried for the company's risk though haha, they're already up like $300 million on their previous purchases. But good to know!

Yeah like I said elsewhere, I think Microstrategy will do just fine, simply based on their average buy price and where I think the BTCUSD market is headed in 2021.

But it's their sense of exuberance and urgency to buy BTC as quickly as possible (even if they don't have any cash to buy with) that is beginning to feel very greedy. Meanwhile, the Fear & Greed index has been in "extreme greed" for a month straight. Longs are edging up on Bitfinex again and swap funding rates are positive. And most people are of the attitude that breaking above $20K is more or less inevitable.

Microstrategy's greed just makes me reflect on how greedy the whole market feels right now. I wonder if that greed is going to be answered with a severe shakeout that punishes top buyers.

[ningrum]

the first target should not be $ 500k, this is the target for the next 10 years,
currently bitcoin is trying to survive above $ 20k, and if it works then there is no more resistance for Bitcoin,
and of course it is very easy to pump much higher.

[CODE200]

IMO we will not see such numbers in the next ten year at least.

Maybe after another couple of halving, perhaps only in our dreams. Its too far away from now to have realistic speculation.

Well, it might be already a tradition in this industry wherein many people are making conclusions which are far from the reality in the first place. The market price of cryptos, not only Bitcoin, has a tendency to increase because price is determined by the law of supply and demand but it is not exactly the same with stock market wherein there's global acceptance which could be a factor that could limit the price of digital currencies being an investment. To how we would look in this market, prices are not consistent as well as with the increase and times of decrease. If the price is continuously and consistently increasing, 6-digit market price is ofcourse possible or even more than that, but to that's not how this market goes, based on my observation eversince I engaged my self into this. These assumptions are just biases of people who depend their fate into investments just because they have earned from it. Little do they know that luck is always two-sided.