How to Identify a bitcoin rally

[pooya87]

So far the "rally" has continued as long as there is no bubble to burst. It stops when we enter a big bubble which bursts fast and the market enters the bear trend for at least a year.
Considering the fact that we are not in a bubble now and far from it, we can safely conclude that the rally will continue for the foreseeable future. This trend can last until the end of this year at the very least.

The whole hype of the "institutional investors" thing is just another reason people use to justify the rise for themselves just like when they come up with slightly irrelevant reasons to justify the small to big corrections or the bear market itself.

I don't think that pouring billions into the bitcoin market can be dismissed as hype, don't you think?
We have never seen something like that before in the bitcoin market: mt.gox and willy are thousand light years away now.
I am an uber-bitcoin maxi but I'd never be as sure as you are to safely conclude that this rally will keep going.  Nothing is certain here.

I'm not claiming to be certain, this is just an speculation based on the facts and observation of the market over the past decade. The signs are pointing towards a continued bull market for at least a year but of course anything can happen in bitcoin but we can't speculate based on what may or may not happen.

As for the hype, you are forgetting that this past rally bitcoin has gone up from $3k to almost $50k over the course of 2 years. How long was the institutional investor hype? 3-6 months? That is why institutional investors still remain only a small part of the reason why price has been going up.

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[sana54210]

I'm not claiming to be certain, this is just an speculation based on the facts and observation of the market over the past decade. The signs are pointing towards a continued bull market for at least a year but of course anything can happen in bitcoin but we can't speculate based on what may or may not happen.

As for the hype, you are forgetting that this past rally bitcoin has gone up from $3k to almost $50k over the course of 2 years. How long was the institutional investor hype? 3-6 months? That is why institutional investors still remain only a small part of the reason why price has been going up.

I would say you are both right and wrong. First of all before any of this companies bought bitcoin price moved only from 3k to 10k levels, that was what we did all by ourselves and maybe a small help from them without too many billions or anything.

However ever since the price hit 10k last summer, grayscale and microstrategy started to buy bitcoins, and that is what allowed us to reach to 40k+ prices this easily, not because they increased the price all by themselves but they have brought a huge help to the fight and price of course went up a lot thanks to that ammunition as well as what we were always doing. You are right that companies are not the only reason why bitcoin went up, but you are also wrong that they are nothing neither, they did played a big role even if not the only role.

[STT]

Basic rally for BTC occurs above the 12hr average recently and occasionally it pulls back to the 2 day average.    The more severe sell might return to the weekly average but in all instances the rally is merely cycling through various rates of gain and has not failed at any point.   Its worth observing and noting as we reach each point, always there is some doubt but its been bullish a fairly long time and stayed within this idea when in a period of rising price.



This is BTC price action testing the 12hr today,  but price action above this measure of momentum means we are extremely positive and its +5% +11% so far so yep.

[GelatikKembar]

Found this interesting piece that goes back into history and tries to identify why a rally will sustain or not -
Some valid points - some not so agreeable -  essentially gist is that institutional investors/backing is driving the rally - so as long as there are new ones, ( like the recent BNY Mellon ) , the rally will continue

https://pythoslabs.medium.com/why-bitcoin-is-here-to-stay-b4e9a032a0f9?sk=a06522d2191a6a821b78971e427494d0

indicators can identify bitcoin rallies, such as RSI, MA and MACD, yup that's what is called the golden cross, we know that the golden cross on the big MA on a large time frame has experienced a golden cross when the bitcoin price is below $ 10k, to be precise during the pre halving yes even though there is a shadow at the price of $ 3800 because many are panicking selling, bitcoin is still staying in its bullish zone, and now the price of bitcoin has reached 5x!

[Silberman]

Trend spotting? But the problem here is how we draw the trend line or graphs. If someone is not adept to this kind of technical indicators, then it's hard to identify when the price will rise or when the price will fall. So we need to learn some basic technical analysis. But be cautious, although it can help us identify when the market is about to make a break out run, don't used it as the only factor in our decision to entry or exit at that point.

I understand why people want to identify trends before they happen but I keep thinking that it is a waste of time and the reason is that there are a lot more movements that show all the characteristics that they could become a trend and then nothing happens with them, how can you distinguish between those movements that seemingly had all the characteristics necessary to become a bull run and that later you find out that they have failed? To me this is something impossible to do which is why if you want to take advantage of a bull run then you need to remain invested in the market no matter what.

[RealMalatesta]

I understand why people want to identify trends before they happen but I keep thinking that it is a waste of time and the reason is that there are a lot more movements that show all the characteristics that they could become a trend and then nothing happens with them, how can you distinguish between those movements that seemingly had all the characteristics necessary to become a bull run and that later you find out that they have failed? To me this is something impossible to do which is why if you want to take advantage of a bull run then you need to remain invested in the market no matter what.

Another useless fact is that if you end up buying right now, you will make money later anyway and there is no real need to catch trends unless you are a very medium term trader. The fact is that if you buy at 50k and then price drops a lot, you can wait, and maybe wait a day maybe wait a year maybe wait a lot longer but it will eventually be 50k+ and you will make a good profit eventually, or if the price goes up it goes up and you do not wait at all.

So, if you try to wait until you catch a trend, you will end up waiting for a long time and maybe even fail to get any type of trend and not make any decent money right away, which means you will have to wait again, whereas if you just buy right now and keep on waiting you will eventually make money sooner or later. That is why I do not think "finding the right price to buy bitcoin" is a smart move.

[Findingnemo]

Read the article which mostly covered the past events related to crypto market and the conclusion says bitcoin is going to stay due to influencers and institutional investors? I will say no to that because crypto is community driven which is existing since no one ever believed about bitcoin is the new future.

Bitcoin will stay as long as people are supporting it so keep our hope and accumulate more.

[Silberman]

I understand why people want to identify trends before they happen but I keep thinking that it is a waste of time and the reason is that there are a lot more movements that show all the characteristics that they could become a trend and then nothing happens with them, how can you distinguish between those movements that seemingly had all the characteristics necessary to become a bull run and that later you find out that they have failed? To me this is something impossible to do which is why if you want to take advantage of a bull run then you need to remain invested in the market no matter what.

Another useless fact is that if you end up buying right now, you will make money later anyway and there is no real need to catch trends unless you are a very medium term trader. The fact is that if you buy at 50k and then price drops a lot, you can wait, and maybe wait a day maybe wait a year maybe wait a lot longer but it will eventually be 50k+ and you will make a good profit eventually, or if the price goes up it goes up and you do not wait at all.

So, if you try to wait until you catch a trend, you will end up waiting for a long time and maybe even fail to get any type of trend and not make any decent money right away, which means you will have to wait again, whereas if you just buy right now and keep on waiting you will eventually make money sooner or later. That is why I do not think "finding the right price to buy bitcoin" is a smart move.

Exactly, even those that bought at 20k during the end of 2017 could have more than 150% in profits if they held their coins during those 3 years, that is still way more than whatever you can get on the stock markets and that is when buying at the worst possible time, anyone that bought during 2018, 2019 and 2020 would have significant profits just by holding their coins, so trying to identify when a trend begins seems like a huge waste of time, and yet people want to do it despite the fact there is no asset that has better performance than bitcoin.

[adaseb]

I think an easy way to identify a bitcoin rally is when you got your friends texting you how to buy bitcoin or when you turn on the news and they keep talking about bitcoin over and over again. Also another good indicator is when celebrities who have no investing experience what-so-ever decide to buy crypto and then they pump their coin all over twitter.

Bitcoin entered a parabolic stage when Elon bought BTC and we broke the $42K area a few weeks back. All the indicators are over bought and eventually there will be a blow-off top coming sooner than later. Then we either go to decent support like $30K and maybe we might go higher from then on.

However if bitcoin goes up $10K everyday for the next few days then don't be surprised if it ends up topping at $99K and a bear market starts for the next 3 years. If you are in profit then take some profits off the table from time to time. We already hit $1T market cap, won't be as easy to hit another $1T in such little time. Won't happen overnight. There are too many people expecting $250K bitcoin in like a month or two, I just don't think that is possible.