Will 2021 become the year of the Lightning Network?

[thecodebear]

I actually think the best chance for the LN to take off is if centralized services start using it.

Running your own node and worrying about if you have enough liquidity on your node or in your channels to route txs or make a payment, and then having to load it up with more bitcoin through an onchain tx seems kinda of....not great user experience. I'm sure clever design of LN apps can make some of these headaches go away, but how many average consumers are going to want to run their own LN node, or even have any idea or interest in learning how to do that? Very few.

This means that if LN took off most people would just be using some centralized node run by some service anyway. And this is how I see LN taking off. I could totally see Paypal and crypto exchanges using LN once they feel it is fully safe and feature-complete enough to use. It makes more sense for Paypal to use LN to route transactions than to do it any other way. Sure then you don't "own" your bitcoin, but if you are using a centralized service like that then that's already the case. I could absolutely see a future where payment companies are the big LN nodes, along with a bunch of enthusiasts who run their own nodes, with LN txs being passed around instantly and nearly free between payment companies and users and other entities. It would be much more efficient than the legacy fiat system used now, allowing them to process transactions faster and cheaper than they currently do.

People will complain about this, but there is just no way I see LN take off if it's expected to just be a network of people running their own nodes. That will never happen, only enthusiasts will do that. LN will only grow once the big boys embrace it and switch over to it from legacy fiat digital money due to its great efficiency in improving their business. LN won't take off without this.

[yazher]

Unless there is an enormous education campaign, 2021 will NOT be the year of the LN.

Most people are not aware of LN, not aware of how LN functions and how can they use it, benefits and so on.

It's the same year as before and LN it's not fully developed yet, there are lots of errors and trials that need to be done for some months. Lightning Network is one of the fundamentals of Bitcoin to make Satoshi dreams come true because when people will able to pay that fast and with low transaction fees, then the whole industry in the world will flock to put bitcoin as their means of payment.  right now, we are far from that to happen because of the current situation of LN but there will be lots of opportunities and we are not rushing it this year.

[so98nn]

Yes this is topic of interest for me and always had discussion regrading this with my crypto friend circle locally. However I believe that there are always two groupd who will be debating on this. For example, Investors Vs Normal user. In this case investor doesnt care about the fees because they are here for long term holding, trading or gambling for that instance and will be looking forward to keep the money for very long and increase the profits. They transact very less.

On the other hand for the normal user who just wanna grab the snacks from the local store and pay the bitcoins will be very much concerned about their transaction fees and wait time. So you have to worry based on which side you choose for now. 

[franky1]

Running your own node and worrying about if you have enough liquidity on your node or in your channels to route txs or make a payment, and then having to load it up with more bitcoin through an onchain tx seems kinda of....not great user experience.
..
 but how many average consumers are going to want to run their own LN node, or even have any idea or interest in learning how to do that? Very few.

This means that if LN took off most people would just be using some centralized node run by some service anyway. And this is how I see LN taking off.
...
 Sure then you don't "own" your bitcoin, but if you are using a centralized service like that then that's already the case.

good to see rational minds do exist amungst the LN fangirls overpromising and not understanding

merit earned

[Jamesdila1]

Last time I checked lightning was pushing people towards custodial wallets as a fix for the bad UX. If that's changed then maybe I'll reevaluate my position.

[ttcsalam]

2021 will be the best era in the world digital age.Because the amount of transactions in the covid period is through this Bitcoin.Most of it has been through this captive world.

[gabbie2010]

I would love to that it will going to happen due to cheap and private transfer of bitcoins. However, exchanges are not using LN to transfer or exchange bitcoin. So, still we need to do it the traditional way of exchanging bitcoin. If only there will be these kind in exchanges then that would be better for fast, easy and reliable bitcoin exchange.

Binance has incorporated and enabled SegWit address into their exchange for deposit and withdrawal of bitcoin with a reduced fee link: https://cointelegraph.com/news/binance-enables-segwit-support-for-bitcoin-deposits-as-adoption-grows I believed this is a step geared towards adoption of LN by the exchange while other reputable exchanges will follow-suit, the scalability issue of bitcoin will surely be addressed in due course once implemented bitcoin will serve as a reliable and trusted payment gateway and definitely more institutional adoption.

[SquirrelJulietGarden]

Total nodes increase but total channels decrease. The Lightning network capacity falls a little in BTC but increases a lot in USD and two lines tend to cross each other. With 3 parameters for Lightning Network, I see the growth is not on a hype trend but my hope is with the rise of bitcoin and rise of transaction fee in USD, Lightning network will be more considered by people and exchanges.

Exchanges begin to support Bech32 address that is a good move before the next one for Lightning Network. Binance support Bech32 since 24 Dec 2020

https://bitcoinvisuals.com/ln-nodes
https://bitcoinvisuals.com/ln-channels
https://bitcoinvisuals.com/ln-capacity

[kryptqnick]

First of all, given how high the price currently is, the fees are not that bad. Last time (in 2017) the fees were well above $15, and that was a truly serious problem. Today I spent $7 for a $150 transaction, which is not great, but given how high the price is, it's not terrible either.
If more people start using the LN, I think I'd join eventually because I have nothing in principle against it. But I think that it's not user-friendly, and making it otherwise doesn't seem to be the team's priority.
I hope we'd see alternative projects with the same aim this year, though.

[Smartprofit]

As Bitcoin's fees skyrocket, more people will find themselves obliged to look for an economic alternative for sending cross-border payments. The price in Fiat (USD) relative to fees denominated in BTC, makes Bitcoin impractical as digital cash for micropayments. Buying food or other daily necessities directly with Bitcoin will no longer be economically viable for the average person.

Fortunately, the Lightning Network is under heavy development to become the default scalability layer for Bitcoin micropayments. While it's still experimental, the development team behind it has worked hard to make it as practical as possible for everyday people. Some security issues here and there need to be addressed though, for the Lightning Network to experience a huge boost in mainstream adoption. With Bitcoin's fees increasing towards unprecedented levels, it seems to me that 2021 will become the year of the Lightning Network. That is if Bitcoin's price in Fiat continues to rise all the way to the moon. Yet, it may still be early to tell given that the LN is still in its early days.

Thoughts?

In my opinion, the Lightning Network is a technology that did not live up to expectations.  Why do I think so?  You don't need Bitcoin to buy a cup of coffee or a pack of cigarettes.  This purchase can be made in other ways as well. 

Bitcoin is interesting as a deflationary decentralized asset.  It is very important that with bitcoins you can transfer large amounts of capital over long distances.  The world needs a new global reserve currency. 

Bitcoin could become this global reserve currency.

[Abiky]

I agree with the sentiments here, even those who have experienced in crypto sphere see Lightning Network as a good "alternative" because of bitcoin skyrocketing fees right now, however, even for them it's too "complicated" to use. It might take some time though to fully adopt LN for now.

But it's good that we have it right now, sort of "nice to have" technology, but I don't think it cornered the market yet, people still prefer the old and traditional way.

That's certainly true, mate. What kills Lightning Network's adoption in the mainstream world is its complexity. Opening/closing a channel, searching for LN nodes, etc, is all complicated process for the non-tech savvy person. It's why most people have remained on the main Bitcoin blockchain despite its high fees and slow transaction confirmation times. Those who're uncomfortable with Bitcoin's fees will prefer to use an alternative cryptocurrency like XRP or Stellar instead of the Lightning Network. Aside from the fact that the Lightning Network is complicated, not many merchants and businesses accept it as payment method. Most cryptocurrency exchanges don't have LNBTC listed, greatly limiting people's ability to trade their LNBTC to any other cryptocurrency of their choice. At least, the technology is there for anyone to use to their heart's content. Development for the LN is still ongoing, which gives us hope that someday it'll become mature for the mainstream world.

Nonetheless, 2021 holds many exciting things for crypto and Blockchain tech in general. People are becoming more aware of crypto as the pandemic takes the world by storm. As Bitcoin becomes "clogged" with transactions, developers will be forced to work faster and harder in order to ensure the blockchain remains scalable for the whole wide world to enjoy. The LN could experience substantial improvements in the coming months as interest spikes like never before. As long as there are people supporting the LN, nothing else matters. Just my thoughts

[dnprock]

Bitcoin has little need for transactions, the everyday coffee purchases. It's currently a speculative asset in the short-term. In the long-term, it's a Store of Value. Bitcoin, itself, cannot escape the SoV use-case. It's like trying to lift yourself from gravity. It doesn't work. The lack of need for the Lightning Network originates from Bitcoin's main chain and its economics. It's a fundamental problem. For several spikes of activities per year, it's difficult to justify using the Lightning Network. I wrote an article about this.

https://bitflate.org/post/2019/11/24/bitcoin-will-not-be-a-medium-of-exchange.html

The key to solve the Medium of Exchange use-case is inflation. Until then, Bitcoin remains a speculative asset and a Store of Value.

[tbct_mt2]

Bitmex has a page for Lightning network: https://txstats.com/dashboard/db/lightning-network?orgId=1&from=now-5y&to=now

So far, since the amazing run of bitcoin in 2020, the total channels fall but the total values on opened channels increase a little. Lightning network growth is in accumulation after the sudden rise since fourth quarter 2018 to first quarter of 2019. It is in almost sideway area on the chart.

In my opinion, if there is no other solution to scale up bitcoin blocksize bigger, or to reduce transaction fees, Lightning Network adoption will have more growth as it seems to be the only solution for bitcoiners and merchants.

[BigBoy89]

I think I never used the Lightning Network for something meaningful beside some small experiments. I don't see where to use it.

IMO nothing will change for LN in 2021. It's a good idea but still has a low adoption.

[Congyang]

This lightning network has actually been rumored to have existed since 2018 but it seems that it has not been realized until now. This will help small coin owners handle costs, so if this lightning network is successful it will certainly provide convenience and certainly low fees. I hope this lightning network will be successful

[pooya87]

I actually think the best chance for the LN to take off is if centralized services start using it.
~

All your arguments are like saying "bitcoin will take off if centralized services start running full nodes and everyone else uses SPV clients or custodial wallets". There will always be many people who want the easy way and will sacrifice their own security and give up the control they had to use bitcoin, whether it is on second layer or otherwise. But at the same time there will also be a lot of people who would run full nodes (like the 100k existing nodes) and LN nodes all the same for both their own usage and to help others who don't run a full node to connect to them and use bitcoin that way.
Of course some of these full nodes (and LN nodes) are always going to be run by centralized services but they will always remain the small percentage.

[Abiky]

I think I never used the Lightning Network for something meaningful beside some small experiments. I don't see where to use it.

IMO nothing will change for LN in 2021. It's a good idea but still has a low adoption.

Sadly, the Lightning Network's level of mainstream adoption is extremely low. Most merchants and businesses still use the main Bitcoin blockchain despite being extremely slow and expensive to use. With the vast number of altcoins on the market right now, I don't see a reason why anyone will do the switch to the LN in the first place. Everything could stay the same during the course of 2021. I believe that things could change in the future, according to the Lightning Network's level of development and innovation. Once user experience is improved, and most issues are "patched up", then demand for Bitcoin's off-chain scalability solution (LN) will increase at a fast pace. Development progress for the Lightning Network is slow, but this will ensure security/stability/reliability in the long run.

Nonetheless, no one knows what the future holds for the Lightning Network. No matter what happens with the off-chain scaling solution, Bitcoin will carry on as usual. It's just an experiment with the hopes of bringing Bitcoin to the masses. If it fails, then people can simply choose an altcoin like Bitcoin Cash or Litecoin for cheaper fees and faster transaction processing times. Decentralization and censorship-resistance is all that matters in order to ensure Bitcoin remains as sound money for the world. Scaling Bitcoin is something optional than necessary in my own opinion. Just my thoughts

[thecodebear]

I actually think the best chance for the LN to take off is if centralized services start using it.
~

All your arguments are like saying "bitcoin will take off if centralized services start running full nodes and everyone else uses SPV clients or custodial wallets". There will always be many people who want the easy way and will sacrifice their own security and give up the control they had to use bitcoin, whether it is on second layer or otherwise. But at the same time there will also be a lot of people who would run full nodes (like the 100k existing nodes) and LN nodes all the same for both their own usage and to help others who don't run a full node to connect to them and use bitcoin that way.
Of course some of these full nodes (and LN nodes) are always going to be run by centralized services but they will always remain the small percentage.

Re-read what I said.

Also your "evidence" that I'm wrong is there are 100k full bitcoin nodes running?? That's evidence against your argument, not mine. There are a hell of a lot more than 100k bitcoin users, but only 100k full nodes apparently. People who run full nodes in Bitcoin will always remain a small percentage. Many million of people hold their bitcoin on exchanges or other custodial services. Few people, comparatively, are running their own node.

People who run their own LN node will always remain a small percentage. Enthusiasts will run their own LN node. But most people aren't going to want to deal with the technical aspects of running a LN node. If one day a billion people use LN, it'll probably be a few million people running their own nodes, and then a network of companies like banks, Fintech companies, etc running nodes in which they each hold bitcoin for tens of millions of people. Enthusiasts running their own equipment is ALWAYS a small percentage of people , no matter what you are talking about. How many people who own cars fix their own cars? How many people who own desktops build their own machines, or people who own computers in general  install Linux are do shit with that as compared to the number of people who use Mac or Windows? How many people who own a house do their own repairs and upgrades? Exactly. Just like everything else, the number of people who do the technical thing (running their own LN node) will be a small percentage of the total number of people using LN - if it ever takes off.

When Venmo, Paypal, banks, Square, Amazon and other major online retailers, etc have LN nodes out of a desire to improve and cut costs on their use of Bitcoin, and they switch all their many millions of Bitcoin users over to LN automatically behind the scenes, that is when you will see LN take off. Until then it's just going to be the small percentage of enthusiasts who are using LN.

Nothing wrong with holding your savings securely in cold storage but then having your spending bitcoin available for easy use without technical hassle by having it in your bank or Fintech company that uses LN to make your purchases.

Although, of course as we have seen merchants don't want bitcoin because they need to get the exact price they sell an item for. So when you spend Bitcoin is goes through an exchange provider that takes the bitcoin and sends the merchant dollars or whatever local currency. Most likely we'll end up with this same thing but just on LN, though it is harder on LN because LN only works when coins are being sent all around to due channels needing to be funded and whatnot. So LN may end up just being used for sending bitcoin directly like to and from exchanges and with venmo-like apps, and less so for actual purchasing items. Either way, what I originally said stands, enthusiasts running their own LN nodes will never make LN go mainstream, by the very fact that only enthusiasts will be doing this.

[cryptoboss2020]

Crypto dont need this.
Bitcoin is digital Gold not the payment Method.

In future we will use for payment stable coins.
So there is no need for the btc lightning Network.
Its been said the btc is digital gold just.

[verita1]

I also don't think it's LN's year.
I have not heard of any official announcements.
I have honestly had a hard time understanding how it works. Download the BlueWallet app I had to put it aside because I didn't give it enough time to know how it works.
I'll have time to take a look at it.

Doing a search I found a tweet from Cobra the owner of bitcoin.org. and he says the following:

2021 will be a key year for Lighting Network. It's been 6 years of development now. It needs to start justifying the hype or it will fade.

Whether you're a fan or not, it needs to get going, and exchanges and companies like @CashApp need to back up their kind words with action.

https://twitter.com/CobraBitcoin/status/1350973565475106819?s=19

We bitcoin users know the difficulties we have regarding scalability, fees, security and others. Now that micropayments could become a hit in bitcoin, we still need convenient apps.
Meanwhile bitcoin is seen as a store of value.