Good target. I'm loosely thinking $300-400K myself (will hopefully be able to add some more precision to that during the blow-off phase), based on a few extrapolations of past bubbles.
Very unpredictable though. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results and all that.
I'm also concerned that a future cycle (possibly this one) will blow all the past cycles, even 2011, out of the water.
That's the S-curve scenario, the idea being that we are entering the vertical stage of the adoption curve.
This is one reason why I definitely won't be selling everything even if we get to the $300,000s. For all I know, this thing could run into 7 figures and then bottom out at $500K. You never know.
I could see it going to such high numbers, like half a million or a million. But if it does I think it'll be part of a multi-year bull run. I don't see $300k, $500k, etc happening in roughly a year. Institutions aren't going to buy it up that high that quickly, and there would definitely be a retail blow-off top before it gets that high. But I could totally see above $500k before 2025 in a series of bull runs that basically form into one long multi-year bull run, where institutions keep gradually piling in and there are retail bubbles here and there as it goes along.
I don't like to speculate about time. Time is incredibly unpredictable in markets, even during the stablest (most predictable) of periods. This is anything but, with virtually every asset rallying at the moment.
I think the ramping up of monetary debasement and stimulus policies is making things very unpredictable. Combining that with current market technicals, I don't think the possible degree of institutional FOMO is predictable either. Institutions chase performance.
We tend to think about these things within the limits of our experience and conditioning, within the existing financial paradigm. But if the paradigm is truly changing, if Bitcoin is on its way to becoming some sort of global reserve asset and unit of account, it's going to blow all our minds. It's not going to be limited to what we saw during past cycles.
