2021, time for a new general & diff speculation thread...

[alh]

Well past the 75% mark for this epoch.

Latest Block:   693045  (9 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   104.4062%  (1558 / 1492.25 expected, 65.75 ahead)
Previous Difficulty:   14363025673659.96                           
Current Difficulty:   13672594272814.14                           
Next Difficulty:   between 14242785268130 and 14275183023396
Next Difficulty Change:   between +4.1703% and +4.4073%
Previous Retarget:   July 17, 2021 at 6:32 PM  (-4.8070%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Saturday at 4:21 AM  (in 3d 1h 6m 42s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Saturday at 5:05 AM  (in 3d 1h 50m 37s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 9h 49m 11s and 13d 10h 33m 6s

With BTC price at roughly $40K, this will likely be a solid increase in difficulty. Looks to me like some portion of the missing hash from China has found a new home.

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[stompix]

My biggest fear was two more solid drops 💦 say 5-7 and 6-8 it would mean more than the China shut down was happening.

And?  
Let them shut down, I don't understand why would you be so concerned about business rivals.
Besides, even if it dropped again by 5% I would have blamed it rather on some miners that managed to survive till now in China, and I have a feeling there are still some mining there, there are a lot of shady deals going on if they have some protection from higher-ups they might have managed to get some extension at least till the rainy season is over.
Two flat months and BTC and 40k and over, that would be a dream.

I actually think the above case of a 15.0 diff or under til August 29 and a price in the 38-42k slot is a viable guess for august 28th
would be a very nice  33 days if that happens.

33 days...not two months but would still be damn happy with it.

With BTC price at roughly $40K, this will likely be a solid increase in difficulty. Looks to me like some portion of the missing hash from China has found a new home.

Or simply batches finally delivered by Bitmain? Saw some good resellers with new gear available for next-day shipment.

In other news, there's going to be a heatwave hitting Eastern and central Europe, probably I'm going to walk around with a fan on my head if it's going to be as worse as they say.

[kano]

So here we are at block  1282. and up 2.98%. still in my 2-4% guess for this jump.

Andddd we moved to 38k for coins. I wonder if this puts some pressure on the diff and we do close to 5% this jump.

Best case is 38-42k price slot for next 3 weeks

with a +4%  for August 1

followed by a 3-5% for august 15
...

Well that best case seems to be happening.
It's been averaging over 4% for a couple of days now so it may stay there to the end of this change? (a bit over 2 days)
And BTC's suddenly around $40k

I certainly didn't expect a major recovery of the miners shut down, this soon in any of my posts - so it's probably mostly new gear since it began before the small price jump of the few last days (and it's not very big)

I'm still saying it will be before the end of the year that a lot of the large drop will be back online if they're not dumping the hardware.

[stompix]

I just got an announcement in the mail from DMG:

DMG announces today that it has been engaged to host 2,000 miners. All miners will arrive at DMG’s 85 megawatt (MW) Christina Lake, BC Data Centre this week. DMG will install all 2,000 miners by the week ending August 6, 2021, managed by DMG’s Blockseer Mine Management software once deployed.

It's just 200Exa, 0.2% growth but that's one facility, and I wonder how much more they are having incoming, till 85MW there still some way to go.

Two days to go, pace is at 104%, price is playing ping pong at 40k, probably the roles have completely reversed, and rather than seeing huge swings in difficulty with an anemic price is time for the latter to play around while the hashrate swings in low single digits fashion.

[fr4nkthetank]

Hopefully they dont suffer from the wildfires.  They are situated near Grand Forks bottom of the map

[philipma1957]

Well some recovery happened.

https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator


Latest Block:   693222  (5 minutes ago)


Current Pace:   104.2322%  (1735 / 1664.55 expected, 70.45 ahead)



Previous Difficulty:   14363025673659.96                           
Current Difficulty:   13672594272814.14                           
Next Difficulty:   between 14239667803063 and 14251378897997
Next Difficulty Change:   between +4.1475% and +4.2332%
Previous Retarget:   July 17, 2021 at 7:32 PM  (-4.8070%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Saturday at 5:53 AM  (in 1d 20h 55m 54s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Saturday at 6:09 AM  (in 1d 21h 11m 48s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 10h 21m 25s and 13d 10h 37m 19s

...

And when we were at a diff of 25.03 back in May I would  have never thought we would be at 14.2 in late July.

As to a continued down trend in diff I wool have thought other countries were afraid to buy the gear and fire it up.  So it is why I hoped to see a 2-4% jump.

Means to me some countries are not afraid to start new farms.

I am not amateur garage mining any more. Maybe in 2 years we will grow to 1 MW in power So I like the uptrend in diff and price.

[kano]

Diff (hash rate) still rising a little, history calc is 5.7% with ~4hrs to go

[philipma1957]

2000 made 16 to go.

diff did 5.5 to 5.8 price is back up.

Maybe this will be a second leg to the bull run 🏃‍♀️.

would be nice.

[kano]

2021-07-31 04:26:44 UTC workinfo_add(): DIFF CHANGE: hi=693504 delta=6.03% new=14496442856349.1 prev=13672594272814.1

So even a little higher again than expected.

Though probably something to do with the luck during that hour ... 12 blocks ... 200%
... but 7 of the 12 in the last half hour of the diff change.
... and 11 in the previous hour.

Edit: and now 173 blocks into the diff change, it's now at 8.5% ... guess that could be random ... guess we'll find out some time later ...

[philipma1957]

And back on the horse.

we are up 6%

https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator...

Latest Block:   694017  (2 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   106.1802%  (514 / 484.08 expected, 29.92 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   13672594272814.14                           
Current Difficulty:   14496442856349.12                           
Next Difficulty:   between 14893536416259 and 15420537890085
Next Difficulty Change:   between +2.7392% and +6.3746%
Previous Retarget:   last Saturday at 12:26 AM  (+6.0255%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   August 13, 2021 at 4:53 AM  (in 9d 19h 45m 46s)
Next Retarget (latest):   August 13, 2021 at 3:44 PM  (in 10d 6h 37m 6s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 4h 26m 35s and 13d 15h 17m 56s

...

so back to back 6% jumps may happen

While I would have wanted back to back 2-4% jumps

This shows some large players have some faith in mining.

Even if we go to a diff of 15.4. it is way lower than the high of 25.03

So just think steady 6% for Aug 13 - Oct 25 we would be at 20.6

and tack on steady 6% oct to jan 1 we would be at a new high say 27.4

Have to watch the next 3 jumps closely.

Along with price.

[kano]

Reminder though that 6% + 6% doesn't equal 12%
It's actually 12.36% ... i.e. that would be exponential, not linear.
So e.g. after 5 diff changes of 6% that's 33.8%, not 30%

Meanwhile my (not exceedingly accurate) history calc is saying +7.57%

[alh]

At exactly the midpoint of the current epoch:

Latest Block:   694511  (a minute ago)
Current Pace:   106.5415%  (1008 / 946.11 expected, 61.89 ahead)
Previous Difficulty:   13672594272814.14                           
Current Difficulty:   14496442856349.12                           
Next Difficulty:   between 15206712511899 and 15459192737790
Next Difficulty Change:   between +4.8996% and +6.6413%
Previous Retarget:   July 30, 2021 at 11:26 PM  (+6.0255%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   August 13, 2021 at 2:48 AM  (in 6d 13h 41m 5s)
Next Retarget (latest):   August 13, 2021 at 7:58 AM  (in 6d 18h 50m 32s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 3h 22m 11s and 13d 8h 31m 38s

Another increase in difficulty is almost certain, probably in the range of 5.xx%.

BTC price currently is: $42943 (pretty good recovery).

[NotFuzzyWarm]

BTC price currently is: $42943 (pretty good recovery).

Ja.
I have a small sale set to trigger at $42,950 to pull out some profit from the buy I did @ $29.5k 

[philipma1957]

At exactly the midpoint of the current epoch:

Latest Block:   694511  (a minute ago)
Current Pace:   106.5415%  (1008 / 946.11 expected, 61.89 ahead)
Previous Difficulty:   13672594272814.14                           
Current Difficulty:   14496442856349.12                           
Next Difficulty:   between 15206712511899 and 15459192737790
Next Difficulty Change:   between +4.8996% and +6.6413%
Previous Retarget:   July 30, 2021 at 11:26 PM  (+6.0255%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   August 13, 2021 at 2:48 AM  (in 6d 13h 41m 5s)
Next Retarget (latest):   August 13, 2021 at 7:58 AM  (in 6d 18h 50m 32s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 3h 22m 11s and 13d 8h 31m 38s

Another increase in difficulty is almost certain, probably in the range of 5.xx%.

BTC price currently is: $42943 (pretty good recovery).

Numbers are nice.
price has risen along with the diff.

so 6% and 5% jumps are  11.3%  price was as low as 29k so 42k more than makes up for the jump jump that is unfolding.


when price was 63k in april diff was 23.3

price is 42k and diff may become 15.4 in 7 days


so 23.3/15.4 = that is a factor of 1.51  ie today you would earn 1.51 x what you earned in april

so 1.51 x 42 = 63.4k

So we are close to exactly equal to the same daily earnings we were in april when price was 63k

Not a bad mining year so far.

[DaveF]

And after a 3.3% and 2.5% drop LTC just had a 9% difficulty increase.
BTC is looking like a 6% gain about 60% way through the 2016 blocks.
So it looks like miners are slowly coming back on.

Wonder how much gear is now in transport around the world.

-Dave

[Philipma1957cellphone]

I sold some at 43500.

Yeah hash is coming back and multiple coins have hash rallied

Mining and selling the btc today is just about the same profit as mining and selling the btc was in april .

Mine on fellow miners.

[NotFuzzyWarm]

And after a 3.3% and 2.5% drop LTC just had a 9% difficulty increase.
BTC is looking like a 6% gain about 60% way through the 2016 blocks.
So it looks like miners are slowly coming back on.

Wonder how much gear is now in transport around the world.
-Dave

The real question is, "How much gear is stuck at the ports waiting for containers so they can be put on a ship?"... Talking to our electronic components suppliers, their problem is not production - it is being able to ship components from China/India/Taiwan, etc. to other parts of the planet. ref https://qz.com/2027205/a-shipping-container-shortage-is-snarling-global-trade/

My guess is there are literally tons of miners awaiting transport from China to other parts of the globe.

[stompix]

Probably the container situation is also an explanation for the amount of news regarding miners relocating first to Kazahstan, you can just use freight trains and the miners will be arriving in Kazahstan before the other ones manage to even arrive at the ports if you ship them from Xinjiang. Russia and Kazahstan might have taken an early advantage here while those relocating across the ocean have to deal with far more problems, slow shipping being just one of them.

Difficulty around 8%, with 107.8 pace right now, not something I'm overjoyed about, but at least the price increase, 18% in 7 days period is enough to compensate for this. The bad thing is that I can see the difficulty going up at 5-6% for a few periods one after each other but I'm more bearish about the price keeping the rhythm.

[alh]

Into the home stretch for this epoch:

Latest Block:   695305  (18 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   108.4757%  (1802 / 1661.20 expected, 140.8 ahead)
Previous Difficulty:   13672594272814.14                           
Current Difficulty:   14496442856349.12                           
Next Difficulty:   between 15718382833518 and 15733496908822
Next Difficulty Change:   between +8.4292% and +8.5335%
Previous Retarget:   July 30, 2021 at 11:26 PM  (+6.0255%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Tomorrow at 9:11 PM  (in 1d 8h 52m 47s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Tomorrow at 9:29 PM  (in 1d 9h 10m 32s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 12d 21h 44m 48s and 12d 22h 2m 33s

Current BTC price: $46,329.

This increase is going to sting a bit.

[NotFuzzyWarm]

Perhaps. We have been spoiled by the last few epochs  
I have to say that I'm pleased as punch with price - between the tax harvesting I did when BTC hit 30k (selling most of the amount I had bought at 43k to take the Capital Gains loss then next day buying back at 29.5k) I'm certainly 'above water' once again. Just kinda/sorta wish I had been a bit braver and bought more at the dip