2021, time for a new general & diff speculation thread...

[NotFuzzyWarm]

Ah fun, Genesis mining, they're the ones who withheld 28 or more 25 BTC blocks on slush in Dec 2015 due to testing bad software on a live pool, and all the slush miners paid for those blocks in losses, and slush hid that information, the longest running pool was for the first 5 years not even checking pool statistics that would have easily identified the problem Tongue
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1976.msg14904742#msg14904742
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=77000.msg13482822#msg13482822

With the mention of Coinbase owning Genesis I was just gonna bring that ^^ up.
I hope that with Coinbase in the long run calling the shots because of their vested interest, Genesis has learned something about the value of having a suitable DB system monitoring and backing up everything that the mining operation is doing. Ya know -- like Kano's KDB does with his pool where data on every share that has ran through the pool since day-1 is stored and available to him for in-depth analysis when desired...  

 A repeat of that massive screwup would now directly affect their bottom line since given their current hash rate (Google reports over 3.8 exahash per second) I'd think it is a safe bet that they would be 'solo' mining on a massive enough scale for it to be reliable income. Making sure that their proxies and mining software is working as expected *should* be pretty high on their priority list. Like #1... #2 should be ensuring fastest possible propagation of found blocks to the network.

Back when that happened they were a much smaller (so to speak) operation and mined through slush so they got paid no matter what garbage their proxies were sending out. *If* they are now a solo operation then there is no pool with a much larger aggregate hash rate to cover problems like that.

[1713924188]

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[1713924188]

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[mikeywith]

Two bits of information that maybe of interest, my apologies if this is old stuff:

1. blockchain.com estimates network hashing rate at 186 EH. Someone is adding a fair amount of hashing power

That's probably inaccurate especially if you are looking at the raw instant data, it's all over the place because it takes the block finding pace to calculate the hashrate, so if say 3 blocks were found in 15 mins instead of 30 mins their software would assume that the hashrate increased by a huge margin, and the same will happen if say 30 mins passed without anyone finding a block.


With that said, there is indeed newly added gears, but you don't have to go that far to figure out who is adding it and whether the world has the ability to make gears, we have at least 25% of whatever the average hashrate for the last epoch still missing, it was there once and it went offline, so it's only a matter of time before those gears start showing up.

And as for those who keep buying and S19 for S19 pro when we are just a few months away from what's likely going to be the end of this bull cycle - I don't know how they survive but I bet they will do a lot better than the newcomers who have yet to hear about bitcoin mining.

I can almost tell you exactly how things are going to play out, in the next few weeks/months BTC and all crypto will make huge moves to the upside, the price increase on BTC will offset any difficulty concerns regardless of how large they may be, the profitability of those S19s will go to the roof, people will pay 15-20k to get them but the party will be over well before they know it and bitcoin prices will come crashing rendering those S19s unprofitable for the majority of people, the smart ones will be collecting them for dust when the "not so smart" ones can't mine with them.

If you think the above scenario is me overestimating how things are going to be just look at prior market cycles, the human psychology never changes, people bought S9s for 2-3k probably even 4k a few days/weeks before the bear market, that same S9s were sold for $100 and less just a few months later, it will be fun to watch how things unfold, the next a few months will be very interesting for every miner.

[philipma1957]

Two bits of information that maybe of interest, my apologies if this is old stuff:

1. blockchain.com estimates network hashing rate at 186 EH. Someone is adding a fair amount of hashing power

That's probably inaccurate especially if you are looking at the raw instant data, it's all over the place because it takes the block finding pace to calculate the hashrate, so if say 3 blocks were found in 15 mins instead of 30 mins their software would assume that the hashrate increased by a huge margin, and the same will happen if say 30 mins passed without anyone finding a block.


With that said, there is indeed newly added gears, but you don't have to go that far to figure out who is adding it and whether the world has the ability to make gears, we have at least 25% of whatever the average hashrate for the last epoch still missing, it was there once and it went offline, so it's only a matter of time before those gears start showing up.

And as for those who keep buying and S19 for S19 pro when we are just a few months away from what's likely going to be the end of this bull cycle - I don't know how they survive but I bet they will do a lot better than the newcomers who have yet to hear about bitcoin mining.

I can almost tell you exactly how things are going to play out, in the next few weeks/months BTC and all crypto will make huge moves to the upside, the price increase on BTC will offset any difficulty concerns regardless of how large they may be, the profitability of those S19s will go to the roof, people will pay 15-20k to get them but the party will be over well before they know it and bitcoin prices will come crashing rendering those S19s unprofitable for the majority of people, the smart ones will be collecting them for dust when the "not so smart" ones can't mine with them.

If you think the above scenario is me overestimating how things are going to be just look at prior market cycles, the human psychology never changes, people bought S9s for 2-3k probably even 4k a few days/weeks before the bear market, that same S9s were sold for $100 and less just a few months later, it will be fun to watch how things unfold, the next a few months will be very interesting for every miner.

Or we slide sideways for months on end. With no blow off top this dec.

[mikeywith]

Or we slide sideways for months on end. With no blow off top this dec.

Indeed, I am also leaning towards the "lengthening cycles" theory, in fact it's no longer a theory if you compare the other cycles ATH from the halving, so this dec peak thing is probably isn't going to happen and we will not hit the top until 2022, probably by the end of Q1, timing doesn't really matter, the concept is, once BTC go pass 80-100k the hype will be crazy, mining gear prices will be a lot higher than they are now, new people will hear about bitcoin mining and think they can turn 20k into a million in under 6 months, they will assume the price will just keep going up until they are all millionaires.

Remember that in most markets the blow-off top towards the ends happens in a very very short time, remember 2017? we needed 100 weeks to get to 3k and then only 12 weeks to hit 20k, so the move from say 70-80k to wherever the top might be will be a lot shorter than most people think, that's when most of the newbie miners will be trapped, at least this is how I vision it, anyway, we shall find out in a few months.

[philipma1957]

solid uptick

https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   708347  (2 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   105.0205%  (732 / 697.01 expected, 34.99 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   20082460130830.84                            
Current Difficulty:   21659344833264.85                            
Next Difficulty:   between 22295104368184 and 22750879669260

Next Difficulty Change:   between +2.9353% and +5.0396%

Previous Retarget:   last Sunday at 3:58 PM  (+7.8520%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   November 13, 2021 at 10:54 PM  (in 8d 11h 46m 11s)
Next Retarget (latest):   November 14, 2021 at 5:25 AM  (in 8d 18h 17m 7s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 7h 56m 15s and 13d 14h 27m 11s

So if we are going to see +5% on nov 14 and on nov 27 and on dec 11 and on dec 25

we will be past 25t

say

22.50t nov 14
23.75t nov 27

25.50t dec 11 new high
27.00t dec 25 bigger better high

very interesting if that happens. it certainly means new gear ⚙️ being sent out.

[mikeywith]

So if we are going to see +5% on nov 14 and on nov 27 and on dec 11 and on dec 25

I doubt we can maintain a 5% increase on every epoch, it takes more hashrate to add 5% on the next epoch than it takes to add the same % in this epoch and so on, however, I won't be surprised until all the gears that were once here show up, so all the way to difficulty of 25T anything can happen, from there onward we will hardly get 2-3% assuming we remain in a bull run.

[philipma1957]

So if we are going to see +5% on nov 14 and on nov 27 and on dec 11 and on dec 25

I doubt we can maintain a 5% increase on every epoch, it takes more hashrate to add 5% on the next epoch than it takes to add the same % in this epoch and so on, however, I won't be surprised until all the gears that were once here show up, so all the way to difficulty of 25T anything can happen, from there onward we will hardly get 2-3% assuming we remain in a bull run.

Well 65K + means you get about 38.3 cents a th at viabtc so 14 x 38.3 = 5.36 usd a day form a good s9


power is 32 kwatts


so $3.20 with 10 cent power or 2.16 profit
so $4.80 with 15 cent power or   56 cent profit.

I would argue that is too good and that the diff is way behind in the race so to speak.

I would say  diff could be 32.4t and miners would still be okay

a diff of 43.2t would cause miner's pain.  All the marginal power guys would be crushed.

[kano]

Yeah I thought I read that somewhere before

Reminder though that 6% + 6% doesn't equal 12%
It's actually 12.36% ... i.e. that would be exponential, not linear.
So e.g. after 5 diff changes of 6% that's 33.8%, not 30%
...

Anyway, it's been hanging about 5.x% for a while now on this diff change.
The price hit close to ATH again in the last few hours also.
Another 5.5 days to go, I wonder how much higher the diff will get.

[philipma1957]

Yeah I thought I read that somewhere before

Reminder though that 6% + 6% doesn't equal 12%
It's actually 12.36% ... i.e. that would be exponential, not linear.
So e.g. after 5 diff changes of 6% that's 33.8%, not 30%
...

Anyway, it's been hanging about 5.x% for a while now on this diff change.
The price hit close to ATH again in the last few hours also.
Another 5.5 days to go, I wonder how much higher the diff will get.

Maybe 7% since we are at 66k as I type.

[alh]

At the moment, the increase has moderated a bit:

Latest Block:   708881  (30 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   103.5800%  (1266 / 1222.24 expected, 43.76 ahead)
Previous Difficulty:   20082460130830.84                            
Current Difficulty:   21659344833264.85                            
Next Difficulty:   between 22326116420686 and 22437068264625
Next Difficulty Change:   between +3.0784% and +3.5907%
Previous Retarget:   October 31, 2021 at 2:58 PM  (+7.8520%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Sunday at 2:21 AM  (in 5d 0h 40m 46s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Sunday at 3:57 AM  (in 5d 2h 17m 13s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 12h 23m 13s and 13d 13h 59m 39s

BTC price: $67,915. I saw a prices earlier of $67K (briefly). If you are little (or even tiny) guy like myself, it's all about the potential BTC price increase, and not if I am making 5 cents per day, or $2.50 per day (now). Regardless of your size, it kinda boils down to your appetite for risk, assuming you can tolerate little or no short term income.

[stompix]

Well, the price has hit 68.5k, so a 10% increase over the last week can take care of the increased difficulty in $ terms,  difficulty can't keep up with these spikes, for every 1% up you need 15k miners on the grid per day, that is not going to happen that easily, especially since Bitmain has again raised the prices on miners, they should start pricing those in BTC directly with so many changes.

At this point I'm completely over my bearish sentiment, I'm in positive territory now and it's such a nice feeling not having the same pressure from the fear of an equipment breakdown I can still smile even if we hit 200exa before Christmas.

Well 65K + means you get about 38.3 cents a th at viabtc so 14 x 38.3 = 5.36 usd a day form a good s9
power is 32 kwatts
so $3.20 with 10 cent power or 2.16 profit
so $4.80 with 15 cent power or   56 cent profit.

Or you could dump it on eBay for at least 300$ and you get the profit for 600 days if you're at 15cents/kwh and if you're bullish on the price buy BTC with those.
Actually, even if you're mining at those rates you have to be bullish or else you won't mine since a 10% increase in difficulty with no price increase would make you mine at a loss.

And since this is speculation:
https://twitter.com/WuBlockchain/status/1456984045057830922

According to the poster disclosed by the Thai supplier, Bitmain will launch the new generation of Antminer S19 XP, with TSMC 5nm 150TH 3225W and 21.5J/TH. It will be shipped from July to September 2022. Compared with the S19Pro 29.5J/TH, it has been greatly improved.

33% drop in power consumption per TH?

[kano]

Yeah I'll throw some 'reasonable' speculation at that BM marketing:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5228802.msg58377160#msg58377160

[eectechnology]

Sorry to spoil the party:

https://www.coindesk.com/business/2021/11/09/uae-based-phoenix-technology-consultants-places-order-for-650m-worth-of-crypto-mining-rigs/

"Deliveries of the “new generation” machines will start in 2022. Phoenix will also place orders for over $2 billion worth of crypto mining application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs) in the third quarter of 2022."

Interesting times!

[stompix]

$650 million would mean 65K miners at current prices, let's say they got an extra offer for quantity and it would mean 80k miners, around 8 Exa over the course of the next year. Compared to the already waiting orders some other miners claim of around 50Exa is nothing to be considered as a game-changer, some have drawn plans on buying gear even through 2023.

Bring it on!!!!! 

[eectechnology]

$650 million would mean 65K miners at current prices, let's say they got an extra offer for quantity and it would mean 80k miners, around 8 Exa over the course of the next year. Compared to the already waiting orders some other miners claim of around 50Exa is nothing to be considered as a game-changer, some have drawn plans on buying gear even through 2023.

Bring it on!!!!!  

Like your attitude. I dislike mining companies as they have huge advantages over small miners, you might say that's the way capitalism works and you would be right. It's a classic case of the rich getting richer....I am a bit perplexed at the $2 billion for asics, that equates to around 100,000 300mm wafers worth!

[philipma1957]

https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator...



Latest Block:   709103  (15 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   103.9694%  (1488 / 1431.19 expected, 56.81 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   20082460130830.84                            
Current Difficulty:   21659344833264.85                            
Next Difficulty:   between 22459795675442 and 22521090891534
Next Difficulty Change:   between +3.6956% and +3.9786%
Previous Retarget:   October 31, 2021 at 3:58 PM  (+7.8520%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Sunday at 2:08 AM  (in 3d 12h 38m 24s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Sunday at 3:01 AM  (in 3d 13h 31m 12s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 11h 10m 18s and 13d 12h 3m 6s

well. if we do 1.039 say 1.04 and go to

22.55 on Nov 14 and pull a few in a row like that
23.42 on Nov 27/28
24.36 on Dec 10/11
25.33 on Dec 24/25 new high seems to be earliest day to break the old high of 25.1

It is a lot to ask 4 straight 4% jumps well one is almost done.

and we are over 68k maybe the infrastructure and fund is in place and it is easy peasy.

[mikeywith]

It is a lot to ask 4 straight 4% jumps well one is almost done.

The means we need at least 6.40+6.65+6.92+7.19 EH increase for 4 straight jumps, it's hard to maintain which is why I still think we might not get a new ATH before next year, but again since we still have old gears that can come online at any second, let's just expect the words and say that we finish this year with a new ATH difficulty and a total hashrate of 180E.

we know that every 1EH is roughly 10,000 S19 pro which means by then we will need 72,000 S19 pro or the equivalent every 2 weeks(a bit less) to sustain a 4% increase, I think the maximum we can have will be 20-30k gears every two weeks, it so we likely won't be seeing anything above 2% increase once we pass the ATH, so 30T diff by June-July?

[philipma1957]

It is a lot to ask 4 straight 4% jumps well one is almost done.

The means we need at least 6.40+6.65+6.92+7.19 EH increase for 4 straight jumps, it's hard to maintain which is why I still think we might not get a new ATH before next year, but again since we still have old gears that can come online at any second, let's just expect the words and say that we finish this year with a new ATH difficulty and a total hashrate of 180E.

we know that every 1EH is roughly 10,000 S19 pro which means by then we will need 72,000 S19 pro or the equivalent every 2 weeks(a bit less) to sustain a 4% increase, I think the maximum we can have will be 20-30k gears every two weeks, it so we likely won't be seeing anything above 2% increase once we pass the ATH, so 30T diff by June-July?

I saw super s19 due 3rd quarter 140th 21 watts

much better than 105th and 29watts

I am not sure what they will add in the next 10 months but I suspect I will need to order a lot of something .



and 4.6%

https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator

...

Latest Block:   709571  (a minute ago)

Current Pace:   104.5904%  (1956 / 1870.15 expected, 85.85 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   20082460130830.84                            
Current Difficulty:   21659344833264.85                            
Next Difficulty:   between 22654212564245 and 22655135120774
Next Difficulty Change:   between +4.5932% and +4.5975%
Previous Retarget:   October 31, 2021 at 3:58 PM  (+7.8520%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Tomorrow at 12:13 AM  (in 0d 9h 33m 39s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Tomorrow at 12:14 AM  (in 0d 9h 34m 27s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 9h 15m 11s and 13d 9h 15m 58s

[mikeywith]

I am not sure what they will add in the next 10 months but I suspect I will need to order a lot of something .

So what's your plan, just buy the new S19s when they hit the market?

My plan is a bit different, I think buying mining gears in the middle of the bull cycle is really a bad idea when measured against holding bitcoin, in all the previous cycles we saw that most gains come in the last 2-3 months of the cycle and then the next 2-3 months will wipe out all those gains, it has always been the case and I don't see why would it change now.

So the theory is, by holding bitcoin when we go parabolic you can easily and slowly sell your coins, but with mining, it isn't the case, you will enjoy 2-3 months of good rewards and then that's it, 3 months later your rewards and the value of the mining gear will most likely be reduced by half in the best-case scenario, which is why I rather stay as liquid as possible especially since we are already 3 years into this cycle and what's left in it is most likely a LOT shorter than what has passed.

I am interested in other folk's plans in regards to expanding or otherwise existing.

[kano]

Hmm so looking like it will be around another 4.5% a little later today

Interesting that the price seems to have had no real effect on it in the past 5.x days.

The trend since July31 ... 6.03% 7.31% 13.24% 4.54% 3.16% 4.71% 0.95% 7.85%
would almost make someone think that it's a bunch of random samples ... that it is