2021, time for a new general & diff speculation thread...

[stompix]

they provide 85 to 102 kwatts 24/7/365

Phil, what kind of magical solar panels do you have that produce electricity 24 hours from 24?  

It is still a huge amount of power being used and yes, more power than many small countries use. Then again, just 2-3 large aluminum smelters also 'use more power than many small countries'. It is a drop in the bucket vs other data-based enterprises.

I always said rather than going defensive like a zealot it's better to understand why it does so, and it's because poeple see it as an economical activity that brings profit and that profit is supported by the utility poeple see it in it. If demand for aluminum would drop those smelters will consume a lot less, if we switch everything to aluminum you will see another 100 pop up, if a new religion takes over goodbye porn and goodbye Christmas lights but maybe we will use more power to build the mandatory sacrificial altar that every house needs to have one.

It is what it is and that's the end of it, comparisons are just waiting around the corner to bite you in the ass

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[philipma1957]

they provide 85 to 102 kwatts 24/7/365

Phil, what kind of magical solar panels do you have that produce electricity 24 hours from 24?  

It is still a huge amount of power being used and yes, more power than many small countries use. Then again, just 2-3 large aluminum smelters also 'use more power than many small countries'. It is a drop in the bucket vs other data-based enterprises.

I always said rather than going defensive like a zealot it's better to understand why it does so, and it's because poeple see it as an economical activity that brings profit and that profit is supported by the utility poeple see it in it. If demand for aluminum would drop those smelters will consume a lot less, if we switch everything to aluminum you will see another 100 pop up, if a new religion takes over goodbye porn and goodbye Christmas lights but maybe we will use more power to build the mandatory sacrificial altar that every house needs to have one.

It is what it is and that's the end of it, comparisons are just waiting around the corner to bite you in the ass

510/6 = 84 daily hourly average

510/ 5 = 102 daily hourly average

510 is peak

factor of five is for a sunny year.
factor of six is for a wet year.

So with net metering the meter runs backwards from about 10am to 4 or 5 pm. and forwards as sun is setting. of course i know you are joking 🙃 but some may not.




oh diff is tanking -4% at the moment.

still very early.

[kano]

Diff is -0.14% at the moment - it's random is as random does.

Edit: and 1.45% now (702 blocks)

[philipma1957]

https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator


Latest Block:   712420  (8 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   102.2319%  (773 / 756.12 expected, 16.88 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   22674148233453.11                           
Current Difficulty:   22335659268936.39                           
Next Difficulty:   between 22658917426742 and 22861844686427
Next Difficulty Change:   between +1.4473% and +2.3558%
Previous Retarget:   last Sunday at 5:20 AM  (-1.4928%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   December 11, 2021 at 10:00 PM  (in 8d 10h 38m 37s)
Next Retarget (latest):   December 12, 2021 at 12:48 AM  (in 8d 13h 25m 56s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 16h 39m 51s and 13d 19h 27m 11s


...

trending up +2.23%

and price is down to 55k

[stompix]

Block time for the last 24 hours is around 8.5 minutes with 167 blocks mined means 16% of the pace for the last day.
Not sustainable (I think and hope!) for more than a few days but still, this pace would translate into 185Exahash for the day, so above the May ATH.

I was curious what Riot stocks were being hammered in the market and browsing around I finally saw their results,  so they have around 3Exahash, at the end of August they had 2.2, clearly, they are going to miss their target of 4 by the end of the year. Also for 2022, they've said 9Exa, I think the plans those companies had drawn back in summer are a bit unrealistic.
Mara stocks are the same, and there the things are murkier.

From what I see it's better to either mine or buy bitcoin directly than expect any huge gains from mining company shares, I have a feeling the hype in the bitcoin mining investments is beginning to dwindle.

So with net metering the meter runs backwards from about 10am to 4 or 5 pm. and forwards as sun is setting. of course i know you are joking 🙃 but some may not.

I know, I've seen even here poeple who think that if the sun rises at 5:30 and goes down at 20:30 it means they have over 15 hours of continuous sun production at maximum capacity.  And a lot who end up with a Pikachu face when I tell them much of Europe has about 3-4 hours of peak sun and they end up thinking I live on some island north of Norway

[philipma1957]

Block time for the last 24 hours is around 8.5 minutes with 167 blocks mined means 16% of the pace for the last day.
Not sustainable (I think and hope!) for more than a few days but still, this pace would translate into 185Exahash for the day, so above the May ATH.

I was curious what Riot stocks were being hammered in the market and browsing around I finally saw their results,  so they have around 3Exahash, at the end of August they had 2.2, clearly, they are going to miss their target of 4 by the end of the year. Also for 2022, they've said 9Exa, I think the plans those companies had drawn back in summer are a bit unrealistic.
Mara stocks are the same, and there the things are murkier.

From what I see it's better to either mine or buy bitcoin directly than expect any huge gains from mining company shares, I have a feeling the hype in the bitcoin mining investments is beginning to dwindle.

So with net metering the meter runs backwards from about 10am to 4 or 5 pm. and forwards as sun is setting. of course i know you are joking 🙃 but some may not.

I know, I've seen even here poeple who think that if the sun rises at 5:30 and goes down at 20:30 it means they have over 15 hours of continuous sun production at maximum capacity.  And a lot who end up with a Pikachu face when I tell them much of Europe has about 3-4 hours of peak sun and they end up thinking I live on some island north of Norway

yeah your peak number say 100k for nice home and barn array gets divided by 4 if it is on the equator and 7 if it is in a northern or southern Arctic/ Antarctic circle

so 100k peak could be 25k at best 24/7/365 or 14.7k at worst 24/7/365  also factor in wet rainy year etc.

Here in NJ at best 100/5 = 20 at worst 100/6 = 16.7

so any given year is between 16.7-20 kwatts for a 24/7/365

Once we get the big array done next spring we will be in an "always" make money setup.

Barring
theft
fires
gear breaking
government outlawing mining.

So for our company coins in the 45-65k range work well

obviously a move to 100k = better

[mikeywith]

A lot has changed since I last posted here (been having terrible headaches because of covid   ).

Latest Block:   712623  (5 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   103.2056%  (976 / 945.69 expected, 30.31 ahead)
Previous Difficulty:   22674148233453.11                            
Current Difficulty:   22335659268936.39                            
Next Difficulty:   between 22872766976807 and 23073976515950
Next Difficulty Change:   between +2.4047% and +3.3056%
Previous Retarget:   November 28, 2021 at 12:20 PM  (-1.4928%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   December 12, 2021 at 1:54 AM  (in 6d 23h 56m 58s)
Next Retarget (latest):   December 12, 2021 at 4:41 AM  (in 7d 2h 43m 36s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 13h 33m 49s and 13d 16h 20m 27s

so 3+% with coins below 50k (currently $49170), it seems like these numbers won't work for some folks especially in EU zone, hope you guys are holding alright in this mess.

[stompix]

A lot has changed since I last posted here (been having terrible headaches because of covid   ).

Damn, feeling so bad to hear that you've got the disease too, that damn thing will eventually get every single of us 
Hope you're going to feel better pretty soon, if it is only headaches then you're likely safe, and this will be the worse of it. Stay safe, both you and your family!

so 3+% with coins below 50k (currently $49170), it seems like these numbers won't work for some folks especially in EU zone, hope you guys are holding alright in this mess.

The EU was a big no for mining even before this mess, and even before the electricity shortage, if you're on the metered plan and not in some specific counties or regions with special tariffs bankruptcy was written all over the place.
Prices have gone over 200E/MW and things are going to get far worse, solar will be soon negligible, winter is really coming with a heavy snowstorm in the north and it's already -5C as I type here(yeah it's nighttime), plus is just December, the worse actually comes at the end of January mid-February.

At least the price isn't going down anymore, I saw a drop below 25c/Th, that wasn't really a thing included in the Xmas planning.

[wndsnb]

I guess a bunch of home miners might turn off their S9s and 55W/TH or worse miners, but that's not really a shocker... do you think many thought they'd be able to mine 3rd gen old gear forever at 5X the industry average for power cost? Well, maybe that might get closer to 3X now that China is out of the picture. I'm still able to test out my S17s at a profit at home with my 21c/kwh power...

[kano]

I think you'll find that the PPS pool fees are actually above 2%

Most people don't understand what the real PPS fees are.

So using f=2%, with a δ=1% chance of the pool going broke, they need a wallet of R=719.56 BTC or US$35.6mil
that they are willing to lose most of in the case where they don't go broke and have a higher than 1% chance run of bad luck.

(Current B is of course 6.25 BTC)



gives

R = 719.56 BTC

Aside: blocks been very full for the last 14 hours ...

[wndsnb]

I think you'll find that the PPS pool fees are actually above 2%

I never use PPS pools, I use that 2% since it is the fee that large PPLNS pools use. I don't know why someone would pay more for a PPS pool when there are PPLNS pools with enough hashrate to act pretty close to a PPS on a weekly or monthly scale.


It doesn't look to me like there will be any significant connection between price and difficulty for the foreseeable future. Price would have to get down below the 20K range before major hash started getting turned off. At current difficulty, it costs a 5c power operation only $8432 to mine 1 BTC.

There just isn't enough gear supply to meet demand for difficulty to rise to keep up with a price jump. I bet price could jump to 200K tomorrow and it would still take a year for the difficulty to double again. Of course, a new S19 pro would then cost 50K each... lol.

I wonder if the ASIC manufacturers are having secret back-room meetings about limiting supply to keep gear prices up...

[philipma1957]

I think you'll find that the PPS pool fees are actually above 2%

I never use PPS pools, I use that 2% since it is the fee that large PPLNS pools use. I don't know why someone would pay more for a PPS pool when there are PPLNS pools with enough hashrate to act pretty close to a PPS on a weekly or monthly scale.


It doesn't look to me like there will be any significant connection between price and difficulty for the foreseeable future. Price would have to get down below the 20K range before major hash started getting turned off. At current difficulty, it costs a 5c power operation only $8432 to mine 1 BTC.

There just isn't enough gear supply to meet demand for difficulty to rise to keep up with a price jump. I bet price could jump to 200K tomorrow and it would still take a year for the difficulty to double again. Of course, a new S19 pro would then cost 50K each... lol.

I wonder if the ASIC manufacturers are having secret back-room meetings about limiting supply to keep gear prices up...

My home is 13 cents in the winter till may 1st.

an s9 doing 12th makes $3.34 usd it burns about 25 kwatts or $3.25 or net 9 cents.  But it does give over 3000 btus of heat x 24 = 72000 btus a day
which for Dec,Jan,Feb,March,April is over 10,800,000 btus  of cost free heat

[mikeywith]

I never use PPS pools, I use that 2% since it is the fee that large PPLNS pools use. I don't know why someone would pay more for a PPS pool when there are PPLNS pools with enough hashrate to act pretty close to a PPS on a weekly or monthly scale.

It will be off-topic to discuss this in depth, but I personally only use PPS pools, and speaking of pools, foundry USA found the second most blocks in the past 7 days, very close to becoming the world's largest mining pool.

It doesn't look to me like there will be any significant connection between price and difficulty for the foreseeable future. Price would have to get down below the 20K range before major hash started getting turned off. At current difficulty, it costs a 5c power operation only $8432 to mine 1 BTC.

You are right, the price effect isn't instant anyways, some people will just mine at a loss for some time, some like phill will use it to heat their house, heck, a 50% reduction in rewards when the last halving hit didn't cause any instant drop in hashrate, not even in gear prices, gear prices didn't move an inch from where they were last week when bitcoin was at 60k, it takes some time to reflect but it will eventually happen.

Damn, feeling so bad to hear that you've got the disease too, that damn thing will eventually get every single of us 
Hope you're going to feel better pretty soon, if it is only headaches then you're likely safe, and this will be the worse of it. Stay safe, both you and your family!

Thanks bro I appreciate it, ya it's mainly only headaches recently, and the only cure is sleep when it hits me.

[robertpaulsen]

I wanted to wait for at least a month before sharing some results from my chart, but I had to share this now... the correlation between the new A11 pro and BTC hashrate is almost perfect (yellow and black). The values of asics are revenue in usd per kwh.

https://i.imgur.com/30prWUR.jpeg

[kano]

You can always make a function to match random results ... that matches until it stops matching.

[philipma1957]

Well back to the numbers even with price faltering to 50-52k from 60's a while back we are adding gear.
The numbers below indicate a  large mine is being fired up and or upgraded.

https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   713051  (4 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   106.1022%  (1404 / 1323.25 expected, 80.75 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   22674148233453.11                            
Current Difficulty:   22335659268936.39                            
Next Difficulty:   between 23580814777466 and 23715016666248
Next Difficulty Change:   between +5.5747% and +6.1756%
Previous Retarget:   November 28, 2021 at 5:20 AM  (-1.4928%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Saturday at 10:01 AM  (in 4d 0h 8m 1s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Saturday at 11:48 AM  (in 4d 1h 54m 52s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 4h 40m 33s and 13d 6h 27m 24s

...

A 6% jump is over 10eh or

10 s19 = 1ph
1000 s19 = 1eh
10000 s19 = 10eh

so 10000 s19's were added even though prices are meh.

If you study the 2018 trend of prices dropping and gear rising this jump needs to be followed up with a ton more gear added. We are yet to see if this is a single large jump or we have a trend. I.e. bitmain and others finally got a lot of chips to build.

look at dec 2017 to Oct 2018 the fear is this is going to happen 1.5 to 7.3  diff move was the catch up to the large price moves.

[wndsnb]

I'd guess Bitmain would rather dump gear on the market if they can, even if it pushes gear prices down. With a miner nearly 2X the efficiency of S17s and their competitors coming from them next year, it would make sense for them to push diff high enough to cause gear in the 40W/th range to not be profitable for most miners, so everyone has to go upgrade. Only makes sense if they are confident in their supply chain though. Otherwise, they just make a huge margin on less quantity.

[kano]

My guess would be another batch of miners that were in China, coming online somewhere else.
Easiest explanation IMO.

[philipma1957]

I'd guess Bitmain would rather dump gear on the market if they can, even if it pushes gear prices down. With a miner nearly 2X the efficiency of S17s and their competitors coming from them next year, it would make sense for them to push diff high enough to cause gear in the 40W/th range to not be profitable for most miners, so everyone has to go upgrade. Only makes sense if they are confident in their supply chain though. Otherwise, they just make a huge margin on less quantity.

That is what happened dec 2017 to oct 2018.  Now it will be easy to see if it happens here as the next 5 jumps would all be 10,000 s19 pros or 10eh.

If not it means that they still have limits on chips.

[stompix]

I'm still able to test out my S17s at a profit at home with my 21c/kwh power...

S17, and with 21 us cents not euro, and that before taxes from VAT to cogeneration and the rest 
I would dump any gear older than the S17 right now as you probably won't mine what you're getting now for it on ebay in a decade with what is next for European consumer prices.

Since you had your fair share of trouble with data centers, this is the usual stuff around here:

General Terms and Conditions Price Changes
From the 1st December 2021 there will be an uplift of 161%* to your Manchester Ball Green Data Centre Power rental and overage charges as per our T&Cs. (*for services billed inclusive of both rack space and power, this uplift will only affect 60% of your rental fee as per our T&Cs.)

I'm guessing pretty soon for EU is either brand new gear or nothing even if we talk about datacenters and not home mining.

Speaking of new gear, the 19xp is already sold out  , poeple have really paid for a miner that they will receive in October. I really need to go to my excel sheets and see why would you buy this and wait 10 months instead of going now for the j, something tells me that with a 5% rise in difficulty it will take more than 24 months to catch up.

As for the difficulty...

Latest Block:   713233  (8 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   108.2451%  (1586 / 1465.19 expected, 120.81 ahead)
Next Difficulty Change:   between +7.9047% and +8.3128%

lifting a middle finger and walking away