Michael Saylor goes nuts: he predicts a $15 million Bitcoin price.

[Poker Player]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IaFVNBG9-Lk

I wish he is right but I also wonder if he is delusional.

In the above video, minutes 14:28 to 25:25 he speaks of gold being totally replaced by bitcoin as a store of value in the same way that wooden ships were replaced by steel ships. He also gives other examples of this style. Just because something has worked for 5,000 years doesn't mean it won't be replaced by new technology.

He also talks about 50 to 75% of the money going nowadays into bonds, index funds, etc., going into bitcoin in the future because, according to him, it is purchased as a store of value. He estimates that the total of the world's money currently invested in those assets but as a store of value is between $100 trillion and $250 trillion.

That calculation leaves a $15 million price per Bitcoin in today's purchasing power terms.

Bitcoin would become a cyber index of the entire world global economy on the blockchain.

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[aerocell]

This is full wishful thinking on his side. A quick Google search shows that his company, Microstrategy, owns 70,470 bitcoins. If you multiply this by 15 million, you get the value of 1 trillion dollars. So this is precisely the value that would make his bitcoins worth 1 trillion, which he then proceeds to rationalize (i.e. try to find a rational explanation to come to that). Notice that all of these economic reasonings he come up with could have given 14, 16, 20, whatever trillion as a result, but his prediction happens to be precisely the value that makes him a trillionaire. Big coincidence no?

[UnDerDoG81]

Lol whales could become richer then Bezos and Gates then...

[exstasie]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IaFVNBG9-Lk

I wish he is right but I also wonder if he is delusional.

In the above video, minutes 14:28 to 25:25 he speaks of gold being totally replaced by bitcoin as a store of value in the same way that wooden ships were replaced by steel ships. He also gives other examples of this style. Just because something has worked for 5,000 years doesn't mean it won't be replaced by new technology.

He also talks about 50 to 75% of the money going nowadays into bonds, index funds, etc., going into bitcoin in the future because, according to him, it is purchased as a store of value. He estimates that the total of the world's money currently invested in those assets but as a store of value is between $100 trillion and $250 trillion.

That calculation leaves a $15 million price per Bitcoin in today's purchasing power terms.

Bitcoin would become a cyber index of the entire world global economy on the blockchain.

He's delusional about the majority of the stock and bond markets flowing into Bitcoin. Those aren't stores of value; they are revenue-bearing investments. Bitcoin obviously doesn't replace the need for equity fundraising, dividends, or debt/interest.

The gold argument is stronger, but I'm skeptical it'll be a total replacement. I see them standing alongside one another as store of value assets for a long time to come.

I don't think he's necessarily delusional about $15 million per coin, but I think it's more a function of liquidity and scarcity. In the short term, blow-off tops can reach insane levels for no rational reason. In the long term, contrary to popular belief, for assets to rise in value, the value doesn't need to (at least in whole) come from somewhere else. It's all about supply and demand, which can manifest as higher prices and lower liquidity. As the inflation rate shows, assets can rise in value a lot faster than inflation, which is what purchasing power actually reflects.

Between monetary debasement (which may be reflected more so in asset prices than inflation), low liquidity, and stealing some market share from assets in the store of value and currency categories, I really think multi-million dollar valuations are possible.

[Wisbrown]

This should be true because Bitcoin market cap worth more than half of all existing silver market cap

[hatshepsut93]

But will he eat his dick on national television if Bitcoin won't reach this price?

In the above video, minutes 14:28 to 25:25 he speaks of gold being totally replaced by bitcoin as a store of value in the same way that wooden ships were replaced by steel ships. He also gives other examples of this style. Just because something has worked for 5,000 years doesn't mean it won't be replaced by new technology.

Metal ships are better than wooden ships in pretty much every aspect. The same isn't true for Bitcoin vs gold, there's many differences between them. Bitcoin is relying on electronics, any scenario that disrupts them, like EMP, solar flare, nuclear war and other disasters, would stop Bitcoin. Bitcoin is prone to hacking - if you're not careful, it can be stolen by malware that you get by clicking on sketchy links. Gold is nearly impossible to destroy - Bitcoin is quite easy to lose if you are not using some quality steel plates or have backups in multiple places, which most people don't.

[bryant.coleman]

I don't know whether such crazy predictions are feasible, but then today's market looks overpriced in every sector. Look at the TSLA stock. A corporation, with an annual net loss of $1 billion is having a market cap of close to $1 trillion. When a loss making venture such as TSLA can have such a huge market cap, then why can't Bitcoin have a market cap of several trillions? But a market cap of $300 trillion? It sounds impractical for me.

[exstasie]

Look at the TSLA stock. A corporation, with an annual net loss of $1 billion is having a market cap of close to $1 trillion. When a loss making venture such as TSLA can have such a huge market cap, then why can't Bitcoin have a market cap of several trillions?

Tesla has actually been posting record profits. They were burning cash in 2019 but now they're up 5 quarters in a row, likely 6 when Q4 numbers come out.

I think people see them as the next Amazon trade. Amazon posted losses for years and years as a young public company before basically taking over the world. From the early days to now AMZN has gained something like 180,000%.

Tesla obviously doesn't have quite the same growth potential but this is a market of greater fools, and TSLA is a crowded trade.

[BrewMaster]

I wish he is right but I also wonder if he is delusional.

that is not about being delusional or not, it is not even about predicting the bitcoin price. it is all about being seen and heard to gain some publicity even for a short time.

just think about it, some a$$hole whom we haven't ever heard of is now being quoted globally just because he made a random comment about bitcoin price in the future and that was positive.

the worst part is that all of these types of people fill the internet whenever price is rising up like this. remember McAfee? you would have never even heard from them when price was dropping hard. of course in this case he is just advertising himself and his business

[LUCKMCFLY]

It is a fairly large figure, I would like it to come true, although it is not impossible, I think it is quite difficult for it to happen, more in these times, a real figure based on what is happening in the market may reach about $ 100k, with the absolute investment of private companies as they are doing now. It may happen in a few years, right now I do not see that arrival at $ 15M possible.

[Poker Player]

But will he eat his dick on national television if Bitcoin won't reach this price?

As you and BrewMaster have mentioned John McAffe I have to remind here that he wasn't so crazy after all. I don't trust him, I think he has the word scam written all over his face but his prediction, although it was done a bit early, too firmly and probably to gain publicity as @BrewMaster says, nowadays doesn't seem so far-fetched.

I think in both cases there is a mixture of what they believe and the character they represent. They believe that bitcoin has a great future, that it will go up in price a lot but also, consciously or unconsciously (probably a mixture of both), they exaggerate their predictions to the maximum. I would say that sometimes they even end up believing their own character.

[eaLiTy]

This is full wishful thinking on his side. A quick Google search shows that his company, Microstrategy, owns 70,470 bitcoins. If you multiply this by 15 million, you get the value of 1 trillion dollars. So this is precisely the value that would make his bitcoins worth 1 trillion, which he then proceeds to rationalize (i.e. try to find a rational explanation to come to that).

This is exactly the reason for these speculation, you will find many investors having their predictions with insane amounts and those are nothing but wishful thinking and throwing out a value so that other investors will start investing even if the price crosses a certain valuation thinking that the market goes higher and these big investors will book their profit when the market shows any signs of weakness while the small investors who dreams about further rally gets stuck.

[mk4]

I totally hate price predictions as much as the next guy but I'm pretty sure he's only saying that for better headlines. One thing's for sure though, I almost always cringe on his Twitter posts. There was a time that he tweeted about bitcoin and dragons and some crap. *shudders*

With that said, gold being replaced by bitcoin sometime in the future was always a good possibility for me. Not that gold will be totally 100% replaced, but with bitcoin at the very least taking significant(or majority) market share.

[Quidat]

Any one could really make their own views and opinions basing up into those facts or knowledge that they had inserted on.
Yes, technology does evolve and theres no guarantee that old things will not really be replaced by new ones but to compare
and talking about crypto on replacing fiat totally is really an impossible thing. We do even say that $1M/ bitcoin is already on the dream
side then how much more on $15m each?

Being positive towards bitcoin is common but having these kind of presumptions is already on the non realistic side.
No matter how positive we do look at it but we wont really be going into that certain extent.

[arwin100]

I totally hate price predictions as much as the next guy but I'm pretty sure he's only saying that for better headlines. One thing's for sure though, I almost always cringe on his Twitter posts. There was a time that he tweeted about bitcoin and dragons and some crap. *shudders*

With that said, gold being replaced by bitcoin sometime in the future was always a good possibility for me. Not that gold will be totally 100% replaced, but with bitcoin at the very least taking significant(or majority) market share.

It's a publicity so that he can get an attention and be known more on cryptocurrency scene, but I don't actually believe on this kind of fallacy since I believe if someone drop a huge numbers future price prediction is doing that for their personal gain although some of the price prediction became reality this days but we need to consider a lot of factor on this.

But for now I'm not convince about Bitcoin replacing gold since it was used as global reserve so it's hard for it to get rid little by little.

[boltz]

Call me crazy but if Bitcoin will succeed as a next global currency and if it still be used after more than 50+ years, then you might achieve something around that amount of 15$mil/btc. There are a lot of "if" in this situation in order to make btc value such a big amount of $ and probably won't happen as such a big scale but who knows. For now Btc might go over 100k$ in this bull run that might be all year long and if that happens we can think that 1mil$/btc can be achieve in future.

[hatshepsut93]

As you and BrewMaster have mentioned John McAffe I have to remind here that he wasn't so crazy after all. I don't trust him, I think he has the word scam written all over his face but his prediction, although it was done a bit early, too firmly and probably to gain publicity as @BrewMaster says, nowadays doesn't seem so far-fetched.

I think in both cases there is a mixture of what they believe and the character they represent. They believe that bitcoin has a great future, that it will go up in price a lot but also, consciously or unconsciously (probably a mixture of both), they exaggerate their predictions to the maximum. I would say that sometimes they even end up believing their own character.

I'm not saying that he is insane, though like mk4 mentioned, his tweets are rather cringy, but I was questioning whether he is going to put his money were his mouth is.

He could be just trying to pump Bitcoin and waiting a much lower price than he predicts to dump most of his coins. If he says that Bitcoin will reach $15 million, it should mean that he, as a believer, must hodl his coins until $15 million and only selling if it's absolutely necessary.

Let's see if he follows his own prediction or not.

[plr]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IaFVNBG9-Lk

I wish he is right but I also wonder if he is delusional.

In the above video, minutes 14:28 to 25:25 he speaks of gold being totally replaced by bitcoin as a store of value in the same way that wooden ships were replaced by steel ships. He also gives other examples of this style. Just because something has worked for 5,000 years doesn't mean it won't be replaced by new technology.

He also talks about 50 to 75% of the money going nowadays into bonds, index funds, etc., going into bitcoin in the future because, according to him, it is purchased as a store of value. He estimates that the total of the world's money currently invested in those assets but as a store of value is between $100 trillion and $250 trillion.

That calculation leaves a $15 million price per Bitcoin in today's purchasing power terms.

Bitcoin would become a cyber index of the entire world global economy on the blockchain.

We two are wishing he is right and hopefully he is not delusional but we must be more realistic and we can only calculate it based on what is happening now, and not on prediction and speculation, this is a high level speculation, Bitcoin is doing great right now but for how long there will be FUDS and correction along the way I prefer taking things based on what's coming not on what I assume will be.

[zanezane]

This is full wishful thinking on his side. A quick Google search shows that his company, Microstrategy, owns 70,470 bitcoins. If you multiply this by 15 million, you get the value of 1 trillion dollars. So this is precisely the value that would make his bitcoins worth 1 trillion, which he then proceeds to rationalize (i.e. try to find a rational explanation to come to that). Notice that all of these economic reasonings he come up with could have given 14, 16, 20, whatever trillion as a result, but his prediction happens to be precisely the value that makes him a trillionaire. Big coincidence no?

Well, anyone will try to do their best to attract more people into their company, this is just one of the many ways. To me, this is a declaration of an attempt to create monopoly on bitcoin which is pretty bad for the buyers because they will get scalped by the prices.

[coinbiz]

These wild predictions are cues of an impending market crash.  Not saying that price won't happen, but that's a stupid prediction to be making at this point.