Requesting DT to take a look at Siigari (defrauding investors)

[StackGambler]

Can you show the math behind this +EV? Or are you going to make this about "faith"?

It's not that difficult to make this a honest service, but you'll need to come up with some actual math. For instance (without actually doing the math myself): "there's a 89% chance to get 10% profit, but there's also a 9% chance to lose everything". Do this for different profits, and you're as honest as Investor-based games gets.

EV+ happens when a casino has a promo/giveaway, not when there's a normal house edge.

Certainly, and I show it in my thread. The faith is actually hoping that we get past the initial hump. RNG is still RNG and if we don't get started in a positive way then that is what it is.

Here is a chart showing my expected forecast with potential losses. This is based on the probability that we lose every 9 or so months (approximately every 1.5 million games.) In 4-6 months depending on my actual selected rate of return we have more than doubled up, even at smaller, more reasonable returns (especially so at around 13.8%, which gives a nominal rate of return for excessively low risk.)

The math behind it is posted in my thread. It can also be expressed as ((11/12)^135) = 55,000 to 1 occurrence of seeing a 12 streak that is say, 135 long. So even with a stop loss, if we are making an average of 5-6 bits per win, that lines up with the math above, 5.5 * 55,000 = 302,500 - the initial amount we started with as a stop loss (55,000) = 247,500 net in that time, which is give or take what we are looking at walking away with after 9 months (I think it's closer to 238k in the sheet I linked).

Your math is really, really bad, in so many ways.

For starters, it's not (11/12)^135. It's (1-(0.99/12))^135, since you need to factor in the 1% house edge.

More importantly, getting the base odds isn't how you calculate it at all. A 1 in 55,000 chance doesn't mean it'll bust in 55,000 games. Not even close. In fact, any basic simulator will tell you that it takes about 950,000 games on average to get a streak of 135 games under 12x. It's trivial to calculate, really. 950,000 games is less than a year. Given your uber-slow gambling speed (5% to 25% a month) yet your high chance of busting (expected bust is in less than one year), this looks like a horrible bet for 'investors'. Not to mention the 5% fee you charge them, which fucks them over even further.

Extremely far from EV+.

You met with a 'financial advisor' and a 'statistician'... for this? LOL

[Siigari]

For starters, it's not (11/12)^135. It's (1-(0.99/12))^135, since you need to factor in the 1% house edge.

If that's the formula you want to use then you made the odds even better.

I am done with this thread. There's nothing left for me to produce. I have shown my math, you have shown yours. I guess we just agree to disagree.

That being said you cannot state that I am a scammer or a fraudster. Nothing I am doing is defrauding anyone from their money, because I show all of the indicators that this is still a gamble. If my method works, then great! If it doesn't, then we are all out money together.

Please stop your witch-hunt. Also stop having your buddies DM people in my Discord. That's rude. I don't come into your house and whisper to all of your friends lies about you. I would appreciate it if you not do it in mine.

[StackGambler]

For starters, it's not (11/12)^135. It's (1-(0.99/12))^135, since you need to factor in the 1% house edge.

If that's the formula you want to use then you made the odds even better.

...It's almost as if you didn't read the post.

Sigh. Delusion can be as entertaining as it is frustrating to watch.

[StackGambler]

For starters, it's not (11/12)^135. It's (1-(0.99/12))^135, since you need to factor in the 1% house edge.

If that's the formula you want to use then you made the odds even better.

I am done with this thread. There's nothing left for me to produce. I have shown my math, you have shown yours. I guess we just agree to disagree.

That being said you cannot state that I am a scammer or a fraudster. Nothing I am doing is defrauding anyone from their money, because I show all of the indicators that this is still a gamble. If my method works, then great! If it doesn't, then we are all out money together.

Please stop your witch-hunt. Also stop having your buddies DM people in my Discord. That's rude. I don't come into your house and whisper to all of your friends lies about you. I would appreciate it if you not do it in mine.

Wrong. There is no such thing as 'your math' or 'my math'. There is math. Period. Yours is just incorrect. It's made up.

You're defrauding people by claiming a -EV method is +EV.

I'll do what's in my power to warn people. If I know you're scamming people, have the power to save a few people, and choose not to, then that makes me just as bad as you.

[Siigari]

More importantly, getting the base odds isn't how you calculate it at all. A 1 in 55,000 chance doesn't mean it'll bust in 55,000 games. Not even close. In fact, any basic simulator will tell you that it takes about 950,000 games on average to get a streak of 135 games under 12x. It's trivial to calculate, really. 950,000 games is less than a year. Given your uber-slow gambling speed (5% to 25% a month) yet your high chance of busting (expected bust is in less than one year), this looks like a horrible bet for 'investors'. Not to mention the 5% fee you charge them, which fucks them over even further.

I just wanted you to do the math for yourself. If it takes me approx. 950,000 games to reach a 135 streak on average as you say, and I can return 15 (the middle between 25 and 5) then let's shoot for that, and I'll show you that in less than 6 months I can more than double my initial investment.

Pretty neat, huh? If you calculate it your way as you did above, with (1-(0.99/12))^135, it's actually closer to 1 in 1.5 million games (0.0000089), as I previously suggested.

[StackGambler]

What are you talking about? First it was 5.5, now it's 15 all of a sudden? First it was 55,000, now you agree with my 950,000?

Take a long look in the mirror. You're a gambling addict using unsound math to justify your delusion, and you're defrauding other people in the process.

Here, I'll help you out. Making sims is easy. I'm sure you can plug in your own script numbers and reach the same conclusions I'm coming to.

Code:

import java.util.*;


class Simulation {
	
	 public static double Median(ArrayList<Integer> values) {
	        Collections.sort(values);

	        if (values.size() % 2 == 1)
	            return values.get((values.size() + 1) / 2 - 1);
	        else {
	            double lower = values.get(values.size() / 2 - 1);
	            double upper = values.get(values.size() / 2);

	            return (lower + upper) / 2.0;
	        }
	    }
	 
     public static void main(String[] args) {
    	 
    	 int chainsToTest = 10000;
    	 ArrayList<Integer> noTwelvesPerChain = new ArrayList<Integer>();
    	 
    	 
    	 int streakWanted = 135;
    	 int gameCount = 0;
    	 int noTwelveCount = 0;
    	 
    	 for (int i = 0; i < chainsToTest; i++) {
    		 
        	 while (noTwelveCount < streakWanted) {
        		 
            	 double bust = Math.random();
            	 bust = 0.99/(1-bust);
            	 bust = Math.max(bust, 1.0);
            	 bust = Math.floor(bust*100)/100;
            	 
            	 if (bust <= 12) {
            		 noTwelveCount = noTwelveCount + 1;
            	 } else {
            		 noTwelveCount = 0;
            	 }
            	 
            	 gameCount = gameCount + 1;
        		  
        	 }
        	 
        	 noTwelvesPerChain.add(gameCount);
        	 gameCount = 0;
        	 noTwelveCount = 0;
    		 
    	 }
    	 
    	 System.out.println(Median(noTwelvesPerChain));
    	 
    	 
     }
     
     
 }

This will, in under 5 minutes, tell you how many games it takes to bust you (135 games under 12x) over 10,000 game chains. Hey, if it takes you 8 months to bust, and you are expected to double up every 6 months, then yes, your script would be +EV - but I highly doubt you're not fucking up the numbers again, as you've done every step of the way thus far...

[Siigari]

This will, in under 5 minutes, tell you how many games it takes to bust you (135 games under 12x) over 10,000 game chains. Hey, if it takes you 8 months to bust, and you are expected to double up every 6 months, then yes, your script would be +EV - but I highly doubt you're not fucking up the numbers again, as you've done every step of the way thus far...

That's using your math, dude.

[StackGambler]

This will, in under 5 minutes, tell you how many games it takes to bust you (135 games under 12x) over 10,000 game chains. Hey, if it takes you 8 months to bust, and you are expected to double up every 6 months, then yes, your script would be +EV - but I highly doubt you're not fucking up the numbers again, as you've done every step of the way thus far...

That's using your math, dude.

The '6 months' was your claim...

Seriously, stop replying in 5 seconds. Download the code. Run it, understand it. Think for a little bit. I want you to see your delusion. I know it's unlikely, but deep down I'm hoping you're not a scammer and that you're some misguided soul.

[Siigari]

Seriously, stop replying in 5 seconds. Download the code. Run it, understand it. Think for a little bit. I want you to see your delusion. I know it's unlikely, but deep down I'm hoping you're not a scammer and that you're some misguided soul.

I have run the code, you are angry that I declined your bet. I have run simulations and looked at the facts of bustabit and done my own homework over a three week period now. I would not have put 0.025+ of my own BTC in this if I didn't have the numbers straight first.

You have to, and now you want to prove me incorrect despite even your own math showing you that I can make a profit, reset bets and then lose a little before continuing.

Really man, I'm not the one with a problem here. Everything I have said in this thread aligns perfectly with everything I have said in my thread, and I am not going to deviate away from it because the math shows true. That's why there's nothing left for me to explain here, except that *I HOPE* it does not bust in the short term, and we reach the profits I have advertised. I even state that in my Discord before people invest! There is a chance for my method to be knocked out before making it, and I alert people to the fact that this is has risk involved!

Will you PLEASE stop harassing me now?

[StackGambler]

Your math is already wrong, as I proved several times above. I even tried to help you with the code. Horse to water, sadly.

You can block me on here if you wish, or click the little X tab in the corner of your browser. I'll continue to warn people about scammers on bustabit as I've been doing for a long time.

I'd highly recommend you stop defrauding people from my community. Immediately.

[StackGambler]

As if by divine intervention, a few minutes ago, Yisserati's "+EV script" busted after bustabit broke the record for the longest streak of games without a 12x, as was expected.

It's probably the most poetic moment I've been blessed enough to witness.



The math always evens out in the end.

[atomica]

Holy shit, this was a fantastic proof of your math, stackgambler.  Glad we didn't have to wait months for the proof.  Sad about frenchbull and allgasnobrakes tho.

[actmyname]

Holy shit, this was a fantastic proof of your math, stackgambler.  Glad we didn't have to wait months for the proof.  Sad about frenchbull and allgasnobrakes tho.

Empirical proof was not necessary to see that the mathematical certainty of a house edge results in a long-term loss.

Anyone that tells you that you can run a script or some strategy to transform a -ev bet into a +ev bet is lying. Probabilities do not change simply because you bet here or there in different ways: with every single bet, there is a statistical loss, period.

[Siigari]

While sad it did bust in the short term, this is no excuse for the high level of personal information harvesting and doxxing that Stack has involved himself with for the past hour or so, and shared on his discord.

This is absolutely abhorrent, especially considering I cashed him out. Despicable actions from someone when I stated high and low that there was risks involved with this.

[StackGambler]

Your name (David Pietz) is in your Bitcointalk thread (which you posted as KYC for some reason). I've shared nothing beyond that or what was already made public. Sadly I've had to ban a bunch of people from my bustabit server who have taken the doxxing too far. They are all extremely mad that someone tried stealing money from us. I get their sentiment, but personal info is personal info. Zero tolerance for that kind of stuff.

You should probably refund the people you defrauded though. I heard one of them is looking to take action. Also, just a reminder, bustabit is illegal in most US states.

[actmyname]

While sad it did bust in the short term

Let it be known that you would have had to keep your winning streak from before the sudden loss for 16 times as long in order to recoup the losses.

You're looking at over 116000 games, and that's not even considering the part where you're statistically losing every single bet.
With the 1% house edge, this is the result you're looking at: E(X)¹¹⁶⁰⁰⁰ = 4×10^-507

[Siigari]

Your name (David Pietz) is in your Bitcointalk thread (which you posted as KYC for some reason). I've shared nothing beyond that or what was already made public. Sadly I've had to ban a bunch of people from my bustabit server who have taken the doxxing too far. They are all extremely mad that someone tried stealing money from us. I get their sentiment, but personal info is personal info. Zero tolerance for that kind of stuff.

You should probably refund the people you defrauded though. I heard one of them is looking to take action. Also, just a reminder, bustabit is illegal in most US states.

Before you posted this, I made an announcement that anyone that was not involved in high level toxicity, threatened legal action and/or doxxing would be repaid.



I have approached these four individuals stating I would like to repay them, despite them understanding there was the opportunity to lose all of their bits.

Your inability to recognize that has caused me to report your discord server to Discord Trust & Safety, and I have reported you personally.

I am closing my program now, and this was the last straw for me at an attempt to gamble, even though I believe in the long run I could make it out positive. Some others crashed as well, and I don't want that to be me again in the future.

But hey, I'll still be around here to discuss all things bitcoin as always

Thanks everyone for your support.

PS: Discord can read deleted messages.

[StackGambler]

lol, 'threaten legal action'? So, after you defraud people, people who... you know, report you for fraud... those are the ones who get scammed?

None of this is my business, but since you want to spread false allegations about me and my server, I guess I'll take a more personal interest and will try to help out the people who got scammed. I'll help them file the relevant police reports etc. I've been spending the last 30 minutes banning people who were spamming your wife's photos, and I come to see this shit. God damn, the nerve on people.

Good thing you busted. Leave and never come back. Try to pay everyone back without the law having to make you. It's the easiest route.

[actmyname]

this was the last straw for me at an attempt to gamble, even though I believe in the long run I could make it out positive. Some others crashed as well, and I don't want that to be me again in the future.

Take this opportunity to learn some statistics: I think it would help you greatly in your life. If you truly believe that your strategy would have been positive in the long run then it is merely a case of Hanlon's razor.

Here, maybe this module will help: Mean (expected value) of a discrete random variable

My nephew tells me that Sal is a pretty good teacher. If he can explain it to a child, anyone can learn.

[Siigari]

this was the last straw for me at an attempt to gamble, even though I believe in the long run I could make it out positive. Some others crashed as well, and I don't want that to be me again in the future.

Take this opportunity to learn some statistics: I think it would help you greatly in your life. If you truly believe that your strategy would have been positive in the long run then it is merely a case of Hanlon's razor.

Here, maybe this module will help: Mean (expected value) of a discrete random variable

My nephew tells me that Sal is a pretty good teacher. If he can explain it to a child, anyone can learn.

Thanks man, I'll have a read.