At long term — Could 1 sat equals 1 USD?

[Fundamentals Of]

For me it is not at all possible. Stop those wishful thinking and speculate objectively and with grounded bases. There is no foundation, much less solid, for that to happen in the next 10 to 20 years. Not even in the next 30 years I think. Let's try to be realistic .

It is possible for Bitcoin to reach $1,000,000 in the next 40 years. But even with this very high price 1 sat is only 0.01 cents. 

[philipma1957]

This has been talked about for years and it was always the same answer by almost everyone. It is not "impossible" for bitcoin to be there, it is totally doable and I would definitely assume the price would be there eventually one day, maybe 20 years later, maybe 30 but it will be there one day. However at the current levels, we are not looking at anything remotely that way, it is impossible for price to be there anytime soon.

The reason why people ask these questions is the fact that the amount of satoshis they have is very little, maybe few thousand, maybe tens of thousands but that's about it, it is always the people we do not have over 1+ bitcoin, that means they hope that if one day 1 satoshi equals 1 dollars, then they could get rich and that is how they could profit from it, and they know as long as bitcoin is under 200-300k that means even if it goes up to 200k, they are not going to be rich.

This is pretty accurate.

If you tag inflation into the picture

 I think in 10 years or so the dollar will be worth 50 cents.  btc will at worst match inflation so 37k becomes 74k
 I think in 20 years or so the dollar will be worth 25 cents.  btc will at worst match inflation so 74k becomes 148k

the world wealth in dollar terms will be

 300-400    trillion now           btc is .227% .681trillion/300 trillion
 

so if btc can gain to 1% of the world worth  in  a month it becomes  4.4 x bigger or 2.996 trillion or 161,128 a coin even if that happens and it goes 2x in ten years for inflation it is 322256 usd in 2031. and 644512 usd in 2041


I do think it can grow to 1% or the world wealth over the next 2-3 years

But my earlier posts show that it needs to growth to 50% of the world wealth by 2041 and inflation of 4x from now until then to reach 23 cents a sat.

I would guess it will never reach 5% of the worlds wealth but lets look at gold

it is 7.3 to 10 trillion so 10/300 = 3.3% high number 7.3/400 1.825% low number.

if btc      is .227% of the worlds wealth
and gold is 3.3% of the worlds wealth

then the question becomes can btc reach 3.3% of the worlds wealth in 20 years I would say yes it can.

and if the world is worth 1200 trillion in 2041 and btc is 3.3% of the worlds wealth  then btc = 39.6 trillion or 39,600,000,000,000/19500000 = 2,030,769


so the high number I get for 2041 is 2,030,769 a coin  which is  2 cents a sat.

[Febo]

Hi there,

What do you guys think are the chances that at long term (say 10~20 years) 1 sat could be valued 1 US dollar?
Is there any solid foundation supporting that Bitcoin price in the future?

Thanks.

Unless USD drastically lose value no. That would mean a marketcap of $210 trillion.  Whole USD M2 money supply today is less then $20 trillion. All gold in the world is worth about $11 trillion.

[philipma1957]

Hi there,

What do you guys think are the chances that at long term (say 10~20 years) 1 sat could be valued 1 US dollar?
Is there any solid foundation supporting that Bitcoin price in the future?

Thanks.

Unless USD drastically lose value no. That would mean a marketcap of $210 trillion.  Whole USD M2 money supply today is less then $20 trillion. All gold in the world is worth about $11 trillion.

It should never get better than gold but to reach the % gold does. 3.3-4% of the world worth  the 0.227% it is now is possible.

[lichig]

Unless USD drastically lose value no. That would mean a marketcap of $210 trillion.  Whole USD M2 money supply today is less then $20 trillion. All gold in the world is worth about $11 trillion.

Thanks Febo
I'm curious, where does that data comes from?

[notblox1]

Hi there,

What do you guys think are the chances that at long term (say 10~20 years) 1 sat could be valued 1 US dollar?
Is there any solid foundation supporting that Bitcoin price in the future?

Thanks.

One satoshi is currently around $0.0004 but anything is possible with brrr inflation and all time high money printing all over the world.
More realistic but still dreamy scenario would be for one satoshi to be one cent or $0.1 but I don't expect this until the next halving, and real question is what will happen with all fiat currencies including dollar.

[serjent05]

Looking at the history of Bitcoin, it actually started as a worthless piece of a program  since no one bought a 10k BTC commulatively auctioned by smoketoomuch for $50 back on March 2010, but after after 11 years, Bitcoin reaches an ATH of $40k.  $1 per satoshi may look impossible but tracing back the history of Bitcoin, it may be possible one day in the far future.

[Febo]

Unless USD drastically lose value no. That would mean a marketcap of $210 trillion.  Whole USD M2 money supply today is less then $20 trillion. All gold in the world is worth about $11 trillion.

Thanks Febo
I'm curious, where does that data comes from?

Well when you google all gold in existence you might get: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_reserve   Then you multiply that 190k tons with price that is around $60k per kilo  you will get a bit more than $11 trillions.

Then you google M2 money supply and you get: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2
You may notic it went x10 in last 40 years and made nice leg up last year because of pandemic printing.

[diazepam666]

Looking at the history of Bitcoin, it actually started as a worthless piece of a program  since no one bought a 10k BTC commulatively auctioned by smoketoomuch for $50 back on March 2010, but after after 11 years, Bitcoin reaches an ATH of $40k.  $1 per satoshi may look impossible but tracing back the history of Bitcoin, it may be possible one day in the far future.

Obviously, You are right to said and It will possible on far future so once it will happen. Bitcoin is rule the world and it will reached globalized. Once it will accepting globalize, automatically number regulation is possible in Bitcoin so I never think 1sat= 1USD. Majority of peoples are expecting after 10 to 20 years later it will be possible in crypto economy. But I am sure it is impossible in reality.

[acener]

For 1 sat to be $1 the BTC price would need to reach $100M and it is too far right now.
For me I think it would be impossible for us to see it,
Even if it would happen I think it would be too far from this generation it would take too much time before it goes that high if it would ever go that high.

[Janation]

That could happen but it would be a long time.

There are a lot of price pumps that already happen and considering how high those are, I could say that this could happen in the future. Because if we will be talking about 1 sat being equal to $1, that also means that the price of Bitcoin is at $100M. Just imagine the price pump if we will be even talking about $1M per Bitcoin.

[LogitechMouse]

We've seen DOGE pump in an instant. That is a coin with an infinite number of supply and yet they managed to pump it.

I'm doubtful with this phrase back in the years where Bitcoin's price is only at 4 digits but now that I saw what can happen to Bitcoin, I think that this is possible. It is only a matter of when it will happen. We've seen Bitcoin double its price in less than one month and more movements like this might happen in the future. Long term we expect Bitcoin to be increasing and with its finite supply, for sure this scenario will happen.

[stompix]

Before that will happen we would have to add a few more zeros and get another unit like the millisatoshi on the LN although it could have its own name like nakami or something   I think. Even the cheapest and smallest possible transaction with 1 input and output would cost 150$ , if we do it by today's next block fees the smallest tx will cost you 16352 satoshi, which would be $16k.

But 1$ per satoshi? When that comes I have a feeling you would stop counting bills and just weigh them so we would probably have to compare it to something else.

We've seen DOGE pump in an instant. That is a coin with an infinite number of supply and yet they managed to pump it.

Doge currently prints ~14.4 mil coins a day, which's just around $600k, Bitcoin's block rewards for the last 24 hours were around 32 million.
So in terms of $ it will take doge about 180 years to print as many coins as bitcoin is going to till the next halving.

le: fixed huge typo

[buwaytress]

That's like the dream for bitcoin enthusiasts although 1:1 satoshi to USD is impossible in my opinion but I do trust bitcoin that it may reach around that price or at least near or a 1/4 of that price, what I worry about is that we might reach reality that bitcoin will stabilize and the prices will never go up nor down anymore, in short we will be on a flat line market. I think that it is a selling point for bitcoin that it attracts the risky people that has the money to risk.

Like I said, I'm not sure what's impossible anymore. Even what's realistic is up for debate given developments over the past few years. But yeah, 1:1 (cent) still seems a bit on the side of extreme to me, never mind 1 dollar!

I wouldn't worry either, if Bitcoin "stabilizes" -- if it even becomes as "stable" as gold, we're good. There is no flat line market; now THAT would be impossible.

[Murpheus]

First of all....
How many decimal places does 1BTC have??

8 right??
In order words are you saying Bitcoin will rise to $100,000,000

No man not possible....

[Murpheus]

For me it is not at all possible. Stop those wishful thinking and speculate objectively and with grounded bases. There is no foundation, much less solid, for that to happen in the next 10 to 20 years. Not even in the next 30 years I think. Let's try to be realistic .

It is possible for Bitcoin to reach $1,000,000 in the next 40 years. But even with this very high price 1 sat is only 0.01 cents.  

and come to think of it this way again....
there are 21million Bitcoin in total....(eventually after all the mining)
if 1 sat equals $1 which equals $100,000,000 per 1BTC...
That would be a total of $(21,000,000 × 100,000,000)

thats an unrealistic sum of money sitting on just one instrumen!!
except we would find a gold rich asteroid to mine  

[el kaka22]

Before that will happen we would have to add a few more zeros and get another unit like the millisatoshi on the LN although it could have its own name like nakami or something  I think w Even the cheapest and smallest possible transaction with 1 input and output would cost 150$ , if we do it by today's next block fees the smallest tx will cost you 16352 satoshi, which would be $16k.

But 1$ per satoshi? When that comes I have a feeling you would stop counting bills and just weigh them so we would probably have to compare it to something else.

I think if we reach to those levels, which I think will not happen anytime soon, maybe not even in my life time, we could probably have not just lower decimals that would make things easier and basically solve the situation already, but we would probably have only rich people with high end investments going into bitcoin with people who look into few bucks stuff go into lower and lower ranked coins.

By that time ethereum would probably be super high as well, so will xrp and ltc and all the other big coins we know of, and that is why it wouldn't be really that shocking to see people using things like tron for moving money around, maybe even a thing that doesn't exist today that would make it simpler and easier to move money around and exchange it to anything you want afterwards with very cheap costs. I just think that we are not going to have that problem anytime soon, 1 satoshi per dollar is waaaaay away from us.

[LUCKMCFLY]

Of course it can happen, in the crypto world anything is possible, the time will come when it will be like that and it will be worth that, for now we just have to wait, after seeing that the pumps are so impressive, Bitcoin has much more millionaires. Just be patient and don't despair.