What is a math model worth that predicts BTC's next ATH with incredible accuracy

[odolvlobo]

Discovered it last year, its not a model that you constantly move the parameters, but all the math's stays the same but for one sequential variable which changes because of the halving. ...

Generating models and testing them against the data until you find one that fits is called "p-hacking". It doesn't matter how many variables there are and whether they are tuned or not. How many models did you try before you "discovered" this one? If the answer is more than 1, then that is p-hacking and you can't use the same data to validate your model.

The issue is that if you derive the hypothesis for the model from the data, then you cannot use the data to prove the hypothesis. It is called "begging the question", which is a kind of circular reasoning. It doesn't mean that your model is wrong. I means that you have absolutely no evidence that it is correct.

[NotATether]

...but am very interested on what full disclosure of the mathematical model would be worth to a billion dollar institution, or private individual as Bitcoin holders are a diverse bunch now. Or as my model indicates me to believe, in a very short time Bitcoin will have a multiple trillion dollar market cap. What is that worth?

If you are planning to sell it then I hope that you have at least patented it so that they cannot claim the work is theirs.

But anyway, imagine the hypothetical scenario where the organization who buys your model uses it to buy coins right ahead of the predicted spike, and then sell them at the peak. Greediness like what they would do is enough to disrupt the mechanics of any prediction model, because when someone thinks they know what the outcome can be and then takes steps to modify a variable that depends on those outcomes (here the outcome is the price prediction and we are "modifying" the price by longing BTC strategically) they actually end up changing the first outcome.

[BTC-Predictive-Spike-High]

Discovered it last year, its not a model that you constantly move the parameters, but all the math's stays the same but for one sequential variable which changes because of the halving. ...

Generating models and testing them against the data until you find one that fits is called "p-hacking". It doesn't matter how many variables there are and whether they are tuned or not. How many models did you try before you "discovered" this one? If the answer is more than 1, then that is p-hacking and you can't use the same data to validate your model.

The issue is that if you derive the hypothesis for the model from the data, then you cannot use the data to prove the hypothesis. It is called "begging the question", which is a kind of circular reasoning. It doesn't mean that your model is wrong. I means that you have absolutely no evidence that it is correct.

I don't think you fully understand what I have developed, without giving to much info away all I can really say from now on is watch the first turning point what happens at the levels below. IF it does not do what I say within 1% forget me forever. I am not a scammer just wrong, the model is broken and the highs it predicts will also most likely be null and void (an important note, there could be an exchange in USD that I have not analysed that does the interim turning point ie  for the 2017 ATH Coinmarketcap.com $20088.99   99.74% accurate, not all will be +99% accurate, just one needs to be, its not a wiggle out, just how it seemed to work last 2 cycles, though it could surprise me, so I have included coinmarketcap.com also)

"AS PROOF THE MODEL EXISTS

The model also predicts that at a price of just over $71K, a corrective pullback to AT LEAST the $57K range will happen, a -20% pullback at a minimum.

PRICE PREDICTION FOR INITIAL/INTRUM PULLBACK (please allow a +/- 1% deviation):

BINANCE $71,996

BRAVE NEW COIN BLX $71,924

BITSTAMP $71,777

BITFINEX $71,477

edit: Coinmarketcap.com $73,240

The model then predicts a blow off top price high for the CURRENT bull run of: $XXX,XXX, I will not disclose that yet..."

[BTC-Predictive-Spike-High]

Obvious scam is obvious.

someone once said 'all models are wrong, but some are useful'

[20kevin20]

Please help, with feedback suggestions on a value or could you say a price discovery endeavor for a mathematical model that I have developed that predicted the BTC 2013 and 2017 highs hundreds of days in advance with over 99 percent accuracy.

I am a self taught analyst that has discovered a mathematical model that predicts the price at which BITCOIN'S blow off top high for this current bull move will/should also occur.

A bold claim I know, but the model predicted the last 2 blow off top highs in 2013 and 2017 with an over 99% accuracy years, yes, really years in advance.

The model predicted price high for 2013: $1,239.43. Actual 2013 high Mt Gox $1,241.92, Cryptocompare.com, 99.79% accurate

The model predicted price high for 2017: $20,038.41. Actual 2017 high $20,088.99 Coinmarketcap.com, 99.63% accurate

AS PROOF THE MODEL EXISTS

The model also predicts that at a price of just over $71K, a corrective pullback to AT LEAST the $57K range will happen, a -20% pullback at a minimum.

PRICE PREDICTION FOR INITIAL/INTRUM PULLBACK (please allow a +/- 1% deviation):

BINANCE $71,996

BRAVE NEW COIN BLX $71,924

BITSTAMP $71,777

BITFINEX $71,477

edit: Coinmarketcap.com $73,240*

 (edit *an important note, there could be an exchange in USD that I have not analysed that does the interim turning point with a +99% ie  for the 2017 ATH Coinmarketcap.com $20088.99   99.74% accurate, not all will be +99% accurate, just ONE needs to be, its not a wiggle out, just how it seemed to work last 2 cycles, though it could surprise me, so I have included coinmarketcap.com also. I cant wait to see what happens, shouldn't be long, complete ATH blow off top should be between 18th-25th of September 2021, that is not the models prediction just some other research has shown me).

The model then predicts a blow off top price high for the CURRENT bull run of: $XXX,XXX, I will not disclose that yet, but I am very interested in the price discovery of that information. What is that price prediction worth? I have my thoughts on that but am very interested on what full disclosure of the mathematical model would be worth to a billion dollar institution, or private individual as Bitcoin holders are a diverse bunch now. Or as my model indicates me to believe, in a very short time Bitcoin will have a multiple trillion dollar market cap. What is that worth?

Reference [1] investing.com Feburary 23 2014 06:30AM ET, Mt Gox all time high of $1241.10 https://www.investing.com/news/forex-news/bitcoin-spikes-almost-200-on-mt.-gox-withdrawal-rumors-267966

Quoted. Please delete the quoted posts above because you're just clogging up the thread (and the forum). Also, when replying to multiple people, place the replies into a single post for the same reason.

I've seen many supposed "prediction math models" yet this fails as soon as an unpredictable pattern joins the game. As @Foxpup mentioned, it almost always ends up as a big waste of time - and even when it doesn't, it's just a bit of luck. There are way too many variables for this "predictive" math model to work properly. From adoption to the current economical status (and now even the worldwide pandemic situation) and how people (or governments) see Bitcoin now vs in the next few months/years, there are so many influencing factors an accurate prediction based on a fixed algorithm + the variable (which as you say is just the halving) is almost impossible.

[BTC-Predictive-Spike-High]

OK thanks, have done. I hear what you say, as I said before 'all models are wrong but some are useful'. I believe the $xxx,xxx ATH price will fall within +/- 2% of the models predicted high,  if facing a -60 to -80% pullback for 2-3 years and you can capitalise on that, its not luck, its math's.

However, who was it that said "the more I practice the luckier I get"

[BTC-Predictive-Spike-High]

For the right person to peer review the model the cost will be nothing, you must be someone well know and well respected within the Bitcoin community or in finance, who would not disclose the model to any third party but may use the models information for their own personal non commercial use.

[franky1]

each years ATH is based on pure random speculation.
there are no puzzles/equations to solve an ATH.

you cannot predict an ATH

you can however predict a fair YL(year low) based on:
how much it costs to mine that year
how much it cost to mine in previous year
how much % of circulating coins moved in that year.

then you can base how much of that circulation had been 'bought'/mined for and thus know what number the majority would refuse to sell below.

however you cant play the same equation to work out a high.

[BTC-Predictive-Spike-High]

each years ATH is based on pure random speculation.
there are no puzzles/equations to solve an ATH.

you cannot predict an ATH

you can however predict a fair YL(year low) based on:
how much it costs to mine that year
how much it cost to mine in previous year
how much % of circulating coins moved in that year.

then you can base how much of that circulation had been 'bought'/mined for and thus know what number the majority would refuse to sell below.

however you cant play the same equation to work out a high.

I really appreciate your input and understand where all the comments have come from up until now. But it is patently obvious that I have come up against a stone wall of distrust and simple unbelief, amazingly, even to the point of many people simply not even being able to conceivably entertain that such a possibility could even exist, maybe that is an age group dynamic within Bitcointalk? Any theoretical physicists out there :-)? That what I claim to have is factious, made-up and of no consequence. Hence the only cause of action is a peer review, from someone that I trust. It may well be that this person does not visit these forums. Early days. The min -20% pullback at the 71-73k range is gratis, and was not through TA but the model. 100% true. However this is not investment advice. You are all responsible for you own investment decisions.

[odolvlobo]

... But it is patently obvious that I have come up against a stone wall of distrust and simple unbelief.

An anonymous person with no track record makes an outrageous claim that they are unable to support. What do you expect?

[BTC-Predictive-Spike-High]

... But it is patently obvious that I have come up against a stone wall of distrust and simple unbelief.

An anonymous person with no track record makes an outrageous claim that they are unable to support. What do you expect?

Thanks for all your comments and all the feedback.

You can view a heavily redacted version of the model at this link:

https://github.com/BTC-P-S-H-M/BTC-Model-Without-Future-Highs/blob/BTC-P-S-H-M/Bitcoin%20Predictive%20Spike%20High%20Model%20COMPLETE%20without%202021%20high.pdf

I really feel this is the Rosetta Stone for at least this current move and possibly even the next cycle high post 4th halving. It's that significant.

When you understand the peak high of Bitcoin the Bitcoin/Gold ratio also suddenly makes sense well over >1:150 for this current bull move.

[Bitstar_coin]

Firstly, the model exists, and I have given you the results for 2013 and 2017, they are true, however unbelievable, this is not made up. Secondly how many people know about  the PLAN B prediction of 288K, and then will act on it. Surely the peak will be just under 288K with that logic, it is the most well known, its been published for almost 2 years and revised last year. Unless main stream media takes hold of it during the mania phase, as almost all people will forget about it having the attention span of a goldfish, it will not be relevant for the most but only a few. If as I have explained before the model predicts a price and therefore market cap number in the trillions of dollars, and say I can have an influence on say 10 Billion dollars (if I don't publish it but rather sell it to one whale) at the peak that is only enough to move the market a few $10's of dollars. For that person/whale/institution who does not want to hold their full bag during the next bear market, what is the fair value?

How do we confirm if the result of the model is true or false? You only paste some figures you claim correspond to figures from other source but what is the authentication of the figures!
If you are sure of your model you can always give a trial and let the people be the judge by verifying it, not the other way round.
If this is 100% accurate am sure there will definitely be interested individuals or groups.

[Kakmakr]

So your math prediction worked out that Elon Musk will tweet about Bitcoin and that PayPal would start trading bitcoins and that Tesla would buy a few Billion Dollars worth of Bitcoin and that all of that would happen at more or less the same time. 

Yes, math can do a lot of things ... but it is not a method to predict specific events happening in the future. (You need a crystal ball for that)

It will be interesting to see what your model will predict for the next ATH and if you are willing to put your reputation on the line and write this into a tx on the Blockchain. (Because we know you cannot change a entry on the Blockchain) 

[BTC-Predictive-Spike-High]

UPDATE: COINBASE FIGURE and further insights.

Keep an eye on my targets/predictions, Bitcoin finding support currently 60k, but keep an eye on the -20% pullback levels (if it gets that far) on my 5th prediction levels,  as MASSIVE support there and for the Interim pullback later at 71-73K level. This info will go over the heads of 99% of all who read it, don't forget them, they are REALLY REALLY IMPORTANT!!!!

The FIFTH prediction a interim turning point (at just over $71-73K) is almost upon us.

The interim turning points are important as previously these prices and pullback levels held during the last bear market cycle lows. IT'S THAT SIGNIFICANT!

6 PREDICTIONS – 4 HAVE COME TO PASS – 2 TO GO
All so far with a +99% accuracy:

FIRST PREDICTION- Interim turning point for 2013: $269.08
ACTUAL RESULT- Interim turning point for 2013: $268.67
Then a -80% pullback occurred

SECOND PREDICTION- the high for 2013: $1,239
ACTUAL RESULT- for 2013 high; $1,241
Then a -86% pullback occurred

THIRD PREDICTION- Interim turning point for 2017: $4,958
ACTUAL RESULT- Interim turning point for 2017: $4,969
Then a -40% pullback occurred

FOURTH PREDICTION- the high for 2017: $20,038
ACTUAL RESULT- for 2017 high: $20,088
Then a -83% pullback occurred

NEXT AND FIFTH PREDICTION- Interim turning point for 2021. At a price of just over $71-73K, a corrective pullback to AT LEAST the $57-58K range will happen, or AT LEAST -20% pullback (although it may seem like cherry picking, ONLY ONE of these interim highs will be around 99% accurate, this is not a "wiggle out" but the model is more likely to predict the absolute high more accurately with ONE exchange ONLY, more than the others, in other words, A high, NOT the spread! Which one is more right than the others I dont know. But the exchanges results should have a 95-99% accuracy spread.

BITFINEX $71,477 (-20% $57,181)
KRAKEN $71,771
BITSTAMP $71,777
BINANCE $71,996
COINBASE $73,149 (-20% $58,519)

SIXTH – PREDICTION, a price absolute spike high for the CURRENT bull run: $xxx,xxx (yes I know what it is)
Then around another -75 to -85% Pullback?

[kryptqnick]

Op, look, you must understand that if you're posting this in 2021 and simply claiming that there was this model that predicted the ATHs of Bitcoin starting with the one in 2013, there's no reason for anyone to believe you. It sounds like a typical scam because there's no proof that this data wasn't simply added into this model since it's publicly available. And even if the model came to correct results about the past, it doesn't mean it is useful for the future and that's the only thing that matters.
What you can do to prove that the model works is post predictions for BTC price in a few months, half a year and a year from now, for instance, and in case they all become true with a very high degree of accuracy, there would probably appear people who are interested in the model. And what you've posted so far sounds too inaccurate to even be accepted as a proper verifiable prediction.

[hector3115]

If any mathematical model predicted the price of bitcoin in a few days, it would be incredible. Unfortunately, this is not possible.

[BTC-Predictive-Spike-High]

Op, look, you must understand that if you're posting this in 2021 and simply claiming that there was this model that predicted the ATHs of Bitcoin starting with the one in 2013, there's no reason for anyone to believe you. It sounds like a typical scam because there's no proof that this data wasn't simply added into this model since it's publicly available. And even if the model came to correct results about the past, it doesn't mean it is useful for the future and that's the only thing that matters.
What you can do to prove that the model works is post predictions for BTC price in a few months, half a year and a year from now, for instance, and in case they all become true with a very high degree of accuracy, there would probably appear people who are interested in the model. And what you've posted so far sounds too inaccurate to even be accepted as a proper verifiable prediction.

It exists, fifth prediction is upon us.  If I am wrong with this prediction, it is because the model has now failed, NOT that it does not exist. It is really that amazing up until now.

Please do one thing for me, check out the levels with my predictions AFTER it has happened, PLEASE don't say coincidence, and THEN it does the min -20% pullback to at least 57-58K. I have predicted this since Feb when it peaked at 41K. But the data is 2-3 years old and its NOT charting.

[BTC-Predictive-Spike-High]

If any mathematical model predicted the price of bitcoin in a few days, it would be incredible. Unfortunately, this is not possible.

Model predicts price NOT times or dates. I cannot stress how significant the 71-73K level turning point is (and the subsequent -20% MIN pullback, that low, AFTER the interim high, WILL NOT BE TAKEN OUT in the next bear market!!! MARK my words. If I am wrong I will admit it. BUT I am not a deceiver, the model is real.

[DannyHamilton]

MARK my words. If I am wrong I will admit it. BUT I am not a deceiver, the model is real.

The model is already wrong.


You posted your prediction on February 6 when the current price was $41k (and all-time high was $42k)

Your prediction was: A new all-time high of "just over $71k" followed by a "-20% pullback at a minimum".

Your model failed to predict the February 21 new all-time high of "just over $58k" followed by a "-25% pullback to $43k by February 28".

Your model also failed to predict the March 13 new all-time high of "just over $61.7k" followed by a "-18% pullback to $50.4 by March 25".

Will the price eventually exceed $71k sometime in the next 2 years?  Probably.  Will the price have a pull back of at least 20% at some point after it exceeds $71k?  Probably.  But nobody needs a prediction model to figure that out.  Bitcoin price is volatile, and pullbacks of more than 20% happen several times a year every year.  Meanwhile, the overall trend has been for the price to increase significantly over a period of a few years.

As long as I get to ignore all the other all-time highs and pullbacks that happen in the meantime, I could just as easily declare, without any prediction model, that an all-time high of $85k is coming, and that once we pass that there will eventually be a -35% pullback at a minimum.

Shall we see how accurate my prediction is?

[BTC-Predictive-Spike-High]

It predicts ONE/THE interim high (this is BITCOINS interim High, I just discovered it but it is baked in the price of Bitcoin, its really amazing), and the ultimate spike high, that all.  

All  the other pullbacks I don't know or claim to know about, that is not what the model does. If that is meaningless to you, I can understand. If I am scamming, where is the scam? By giving free wrong info? That can easily be proven wrong soon, that's dumb, ohhh but if Im right.

One turning point (BITCOINS ULTIMATE PIVOT POINT) + one ATH, post 3rd halving (just read some of the stuff I wrote, I think you must have speed read it or something, because you don't understand what I am about). One day you will understand, I will come full public. Probably after it breaks, 2025 -2030 my guess, but UNTIL then sure, its for sale.