The Case for a $10,000,000 Bitcoin

[NJ_B]

An article I posted on Medium.

The Case for a $10,000,000 Bitcoin
https://nicholasbridgewater.medium.com/the-case-for-a-10-000-000-bitcoin-92a889a17ba6

Best regards,

NJ_B

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[Daryl_Dixon]

this is a joke?
I read this article and I think it is completely irrational and only the author wanted to design the idea and I respectfully reject this article and your post.

[virtualdn]

this is a joke?
I read this article and I think it is completely irrational and only the author wanted to design the idea and I respectfully reject this article and your post.

Hal Finney said this could happen in theory I really don't find it a joke.

Year 2009: Is $50K for a BTC a joke? Good joke yeah!

[DeathAngel]

Nice article OP. I don’t think $10,000,000 per BTC is impossible at all. It won’t be in this cycle but in the next 10 years, sure. Never sell all your BTC, there is no asset like it. Even 1BTC can make you very wealthy in the next 10 years or so.

[BlackHatCoiner]

this is a joke?
I read this article and I think it is completely irrational and only the author wanted to design the idea and I respectfully reject this article and your post.

I see no jokes on the article and in my opinion, it was a well read. Why do you believe that the $10M are impossible? Going from $5 to $1000 is the same thing with $50k and $10M. Would you ever believe that a bitcoin you had bought for $5 would cost 200 times more after 5 years? Sure, it most likely won't be 5 years, but it may be on 2030, 2035, 2040. One thing is certain, the dollar inflates.

[kryptqnick]

That's a long and well-written article, strongly supported by sources and providing lots of background.
However, I want to address some points. For one, you're saying that Bitcoin's a singularity, the "ark of salvation". There are also other cryptocurrencies, so they might take up some of the wealth moved from other assets. Bitcoin is not the rise, but it's not the only crypto experiencing an upward trend. Ethereum almost trippled in price over the last 3 months, for instance.
I also don't think that Bitcoin will reach even $200k within the current bull run. Honestly, even the current price seems incredibly high to me.
And with Bitcoin fees spiking higher, more people will probably move to other top cryptos, so Bitcoin won't rise as high as $10 million because it won't be the only one rising.

[NJ_B]

this is a joke?
I read this article and I think it is completely irrational and only the author wanted to design the idea and I respectfully reject this article and your post.

You clearly didn't read the article. Try again.

[NJ_B]

That's a long and well-written article, strongly supported by sources and providing lots of background.

Thanks for your comments.

However, I want to address some points. For one, you're saying that Bitcoin's a singularity, the "ark of salvation". There are also other cryptocurrencies, so they might take up some of the wealth moved from other assets.

For now, many cryptocurrencies are part of the same rise in asset values. But that's because of VERY different use cases. So far, only Bitcoin can show itself to be hard money and a true store of value. As such, it is now being adopted by institutions, whereas ETH really isn't. ETH blew up last time in the ICO bubble, and now in the DeFi bubble, but it's not going to pivot to become digital gold 2.0. 

I also don't think that Bitcoin will reach even $200k within the current bull run.

Time will tell.

Honestly, even the current price seems incredibly high to me.
And with Bitcoin fees spiking higher, more people will probably move to other top cryptos, so Bitcoin won't rise as high as $10 million because it won't be the only one rising.

I don't see fees as an issue at all. It costs a LOT more to move gold from one vault to another than it does to move BTC in one transaction. Think of Bitcoin as a settlement layer for the entire planet, much as gold used to be. Millions of transactiosn can be settled in one BTC transaction so fees are not an issue. The Lightning Network largely solves this as well. But your statement that "it won't be the only one rising" ignores the use case of Bitcoin and its monetary qualities. One money tends to win--it's a winner-takes-all scenario, just as the entire monetary system at the moment is based on one fiat currency, the USD, and in the 19th century, it was based on the gold standard and, before, bimetallism and silver/gold.

[BurtW]

We do not want the price of BTC to go to $10,000,000 in this era.  Possibly some day in a later era when the subsidy is much lower, but not now.

Here is why:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=694401.msg56375694#msg56375694

This scales by BTC price so:

BTC at $500,000 in this era means power consumption would trend to (try to consume) 3.8% of worldwide power.

BTC at $5,000,000 in this era means power consumption would trend to (try to consume) 38% of worldwide power.

BTC at $10,000,000 in this era means power consumption would trend to (try to consume) 76% of worldwide power.

Now, of course, Bitcoin would never actually consume that much power since mining equipment would not be able to be produced fast enough and the price of electricity would go up to compensate.  But it would be catastrophic if the price were to actually go up that much in a short period of time.

[Xavofat]

To be clear, your article assumes that Bitcoin's market cap (about 210 trillion after all BTC has been distributed, or lower if you account for lost coins) will become about the same as all money that exists in the whole world including savings (excluding dividends).  That would require the total collapse of all forms of fiat money and of all other cryptocurrencies.  Are you really saying that's a reasonable scenario to expect for a currency currently handling only a few hundred thousand transactions per day and using up vast quantities of electricity in the process?

[acquafredda]

An article I posted on Medium.

The Case for a $10,000,000 Bitcoin
https://nicholasbridgewater.medium.com/the-case-for-a-10-000-000-bitcoin-92a889a17ba6

Best regards,

NJ_B

These are the articles I love to read, well-thought, backed by data and knowledge and able to connect the dots. We would need more thorough discussions on topics like these instead of hving countless useless threads on when moon, why dump, is bitcoin worth buying at 50k and so on.
Great article, thanks for sharing! Pericles' words are some masterpiece 

[serjent05]

Nice article OP. I don’t think $10,000,000 per BTC is impossible at all. It won’t be in this cycle but in the next 10 years, sure. Never sell all your BTC, there is no asset like it. Even 1BTC can make you very wealthy in the next 10 years or so.

At the current price, it does look impossible.  Why not aim for $100k  first before anything more than that.  Even a million-dollar BTC is far from sight let alone 10 million.

this is a joke?
I read this article and I think it is completely irrational and only the author wanted to design the idea and I respectfully reject this article and your post.

I see no jokes on the article and in my opinion, it was a well read. Why do you believe that the $10M are impossible?

The article is well thought.  But somehow I feel like there are exaggerations in the context just to prove his point.  Also, there are lots of possible hiccups that were not stated there.  The article focuses solely on BTC using theories that support the writer's claim, neglecting hindrances and other crypto competitors that can eat a huge percentage of Bitcoins possible market.  With that missing, the story more likely becomes fantasy/fiction than a possible future reality.

Going from $5 to $1000 is the same thing with $50k and $10M. Would you ever believe that a bitcoin you had bought for $5 would cost 200 times more after 5 years? Sure, it most likely won't be 5 years, but it may be on 2030, 2035, 2040. One thing is certain, the dollar inflates.

And check how the increased price percentage of Bitcoin decreases over the course of time. The difficulty of an increase from $5 to $1000 is not the same as $50k to $10m  since it needs more financial sources than a $5 to $1000 increase.  Like you can find it easier to double your $1 than doubling your $1000.  It is like a comparison of feeding a family of 2 against a family of 200.  Adoption sure will increase but competition will sure eat most of the possible market of BTC along the way.  not saying the possibility of another cryptocurrency to overrun BTC's dominance.

[odolvlobo]

The article just repeats what other people have written elsewhere. It does not add anything new. Most of the article is fluff. The meat of the article justifying the $10 million price is based on flawed assumptions, misconceptions, and ignorance of basic economics.

Each halving is followed by a ‘supply shock’ as the supply fails to meet demand and buyers bid up the price of each Bitcoin until it reaches multiples of its pre-halving price.

The halving does not cause a "supply shock". The production is cut in half but the supply continues to increase every 10 minutes.

What follows is a bull run that lasts for about a year or so, followed by a bear market. These four-year-cycles draw in more Bitcoin users and holders with each iteration.

Contrary to popular belief there is no four-year cycle and there is no correlation between halvings and price increases. Those that make these claims are cherry-picking the data. They ignore the bull runs in 2011 and 2019, and the fact that there were two bull runs in 2013.

Hal Finney, one of the earliest contributors to Bitcoin, wrote in 2009 that “current estimates of total worldwide household wealth that I have found range from $100 trillion to
$300 trillion. With 20 million coins, that gives each coin a value of about $10 million.”

Hal Finney was mistaken. There is no reason to compare total worldwide household wealth to the market cap of bitcoin. Doing that would imply that everything we own is replaced by bitcoins.

[cr1776]

An article I posted on Medium.

The Case for a $10,000,000 Bitcoin
https://nicholasbridgewater.medium.com/the-case-for-a-10-000-000-bitcoin-92a889a17ba6

Best regards,

NJ_B

This is anything but a joke.

The price of bitcoin is set at the margin, so it isn't as if every bitcoin needs to be purchased at 600k or 10,000k.  Certainly not every coin is for sale.   If there are 500,000 coins for sale between here and 10,000k you you don't need that much demand to propel it that high.  Say the average price per bitcoin between here and 10,000k is $600,000, that would be "only" $300 Billion in additional investments.  If 1 million coins were for sale, it would double.  If 6 million coins were for sale and the average was still $600,000, it would be $3 trillion in new investment, but nowhere near $10,000,000 * $20,000,000.

Back at $1 people were saying $100 or $1000, let alone $50k was impossible - not everyone of course. 

So is it possible?  Definitely, it just depends on supply at each point and demand at each point.  If everyone with bitcoin refused to sell below $10,000,000, the price would go there since people might want to own 0.00000001 or whatever.

Is it likely?  That's another question. 
Is it likely any time soon?  That too is another question.

[Gyna]

i hope it is true because i bought bitcoin at $520000

[FlightyPouch]

That price is impossible nowadays but as other said, in the future is not impossible. Just look at the price pumps that happened in the last weeks and in the past months. It will still happen in the future that is why it is better for people to hold their bitcoins.

i hope it is true because i bought bitcoin at $520000

Maybe at $52K and not in $520K, we're still not there. Just wait my friend, you'll have your profit in no time.

[Gyna]

ooh of course it was 52k and not 520k. Thanks for your information

[TravelMug]

Let me quote:

The value of absolute scarcity

This paradigm alone will let bitcoin's price go to the moon in the future.

And I think year 2028-2032, when almost all bitcoin have been mined, we will see what the price of bitcoin and there could be argument that we might see $1 million or more. At least we can see and live around that time to fully gauge the impact of bitcoin can bring to the world.

[Lauren Smith]

this is a joke?
I read this article and I think it is completely irrational and only the author wanted to design the idea and I respectfully reject this article and your post.

I see no jokes on the article and in my opinion, it was a well read. Why do you believe that the $10M are impossible? Going from $5 to $1000 is the same thing with $50k and $10M. Would you ever believe that a bitcoin you had bought for $5 would cost 200 times more after 5 years? Sure, it most likely won't be 5 years, but it may be on 2030, 2035, 2040. One thing is certain, the dollar inflates.

Exactly! If bitcoin continues to exist in say 10 years it will shoot up since you can no longer mine new coins but only handle transactions which will be interesting to see how miners use the extra hash power they use to use to mine. I would rather use crypto. Fiat just inflates and you can buy less and less with the same amount and guess what? Your salary doesn't go up along with it. Not the life I want. Crypto is the way to go.

[BurtW]

... in say 10 years it will shoot up since you can no longer mine new coins but only handle transactions which will be interesting to see how miners use the extra hash power they use to use to mine.

They will mine for the fees, which will take the place of the subsidy.