The new ones like BSC and Polka might get some outflows back to ETH though.
Depends from how developers will engaged with those alternative chain, the fact that ETH update might resolve the problem
with transaction fees,
Those developers who jumped out might think back and again use the ERC chain, it will bring those old support plus those
new developers to use the system.
We will see what will happen after the update.
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ETH will resolve it. It's just a matter of when, and I think people in general who have left ETH don't believe it's happening according to schedule (they're behaving like Bitcoin people who left the main network because they thought BTC was too slow).
Like you said though, we'll only really find out after the update.