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Author Topic: Next Bitcoin Halving in 2024 & Price prediction?  (Read 224 times)
sukbir
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April 04, 2021, 01:38:07 PM
 #1

                                                              

I think everybody is familiar about Bitcoin halving. Every four years the reward that miners receive for finding a block will cut in half. The day the amount halves is called a "halving".

Bitcoin Halving Dates History

Take a look at the previous three halvings.

2012 Halving
The 2012 block halving was the first halving and happened on November 28th, 2012. The halving block was mined by SlushPool by someone using a Radeon HD 5800 miner.

New BTC Per Block Before: 50 BTC per block
New BTC Per Block After: 25 BTC per block
Price on Halving Day: $12.35
Price 150 Days Later: $127.00

2016 Halving

The second halving occurred on July 9th, 2016.

New BTC Per Block Before: 25 BTC per block
New BTC Per Block After: 12.5 BTC per block
Price on Halving Day: $650.63
Price 150 Days Later: $758.81

2020 Halving
The third halving occurred on May 11, 2020.

New BTC Per Block Before: 12.5 BTC per block
New BTC Per Block After: 6.25 BTC per block
Price on Halving Day: $8821.42
Price 150 Days Later: $10,943.00

Above data source: https://www.buybitcoinworldwide.com/bitcoin-clock/

In the 2024 halving, the reward will drop from 6.25 BTC per block to 3.125 BTC.


What will the Bitcoin price be at next halving after 2024? Can you guys share your opinion?  

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April 04, 2021, 01:44:20 PM
Merited by btcsmlcmnr (3)
 #2

You can not predict anything because bitcoin has yet topped up after the 2020 halving. After bitcoin tops up for this halving and the market turns from bullish to bearish, you will have data to predict for 2024 halving.

If you want to predict it and don't want to wait, you can use Stock to Flow model from PlanB that is used to model Bitcoin Value with Scarcity

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April 04, 2021, 02:47:10 PM
 #3


What will the Bitcoin price be at next halving after 2024? Can you guys share your opinion?  [/color][/b]


well, when we wait for the moment of 2024, the distance from 2021 today will be a lot of ups and downs in the price of bitcoin. like when the price of bitcoin before halving in 2020, the price of bitcoin had dropped below $ 10,000. to prepare for the next halving, it is possible that we will be given the opportunity to have quite a lot of bitcoin. because to arrive in 2024 is still quite a long time.

As for the estimated price in 2024, in my opinion and this is based on assumptions or guesses, around a price above $ 150,000 will be a pretty fantastic price.

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April 04, 2021, 03:05:25 PM
 #4

it is impossible to predict the price at next halving when we have not yet begun this rally with its bubble. first this cycle has to be concluded so that we can see whether the "cycles" are going to be broken or not and if they are then the next target is going to be wildly different and if they are not then again the next target depends a lot on the ATH price that this cycles ends with.

if we assume the same cycle continues and price reaches $500k then the bubble burst has to be 80% too and it has to drop down to $100k and by the time halving is reached it has to be up to $300k.

so the answer by extrapolating data is $300k

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April 04, 2021, 03:13:48 PM
 #5

If we're going to make predictions based on past price movement, probably one of the best models to follow is PlanB's S2F[1]. Based on the model, bitcoin should be some around $115k. So to add some room for price fluctuations, probably $80k-140k or so.


[1] https://digitalik.net/btc/

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April 04, 2021, 03:21:17 PM
 #6

Trump will be president and save Bitcoin... Wink
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April 04, 2021, 03:30:53 PM
 #7

There is no proof of causal relationship between Bitcoin halving and the price going up. Bitcoin tends to rise overall throughout its history, and linking this tendency to halvings is just one way to look at it. It's especially so because the price doesn't even rise rightaway, it just rises at some point and people say it's all because of the long-term halving effect. It's just a mere correlation, a way of putting separate events together as if they're actually related to one another. So regarding the price of Bitcoin in 2024, it's very hard to make reasonable predictions, considering how significantly Bitcoin price has grown already over the years. And it's also hard to determine whether halving will have anything to do with the price.

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April 04, 2021, 03:39:26 PM
 #8

As a rule of thumb, bitcoin will have a good price gain. However, the crypto market has many fluctuations and no one can predict it, I personally think it will increase in price but that is only my speculation without any proof.


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April 04, 2021, 03:45:30 PM
 #9

If we're going to make predictions based on past price movement, probably one of the best models to follow is PlanB's S2F[1]. Based on the model, bitcoin should be some around $115k. So to add some room for price fluctuations, probably $80k-140k or so.


[1] https://digitalik.net/btc/

Definitely the GO-TO model which has a proven record.

There is a very simple rule of thumb we can use for each halving Supply and Demand.

It might be a psychological thing but directly after each halving there is definitely more buy
demand which settles 12 months after until the next event, essentially Bull to Bear to Bull
markets, its cyclical.

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April 04, 2021, 03:47:25 PM
 #10

There is no proof of causal relationship between Bitcoin halving and the price going up.
IMHO, there always been a relationship when bitcoin halves and the result of it always going to make bitcoin's price increase. Miners reward are becoming lesser and that makes it the cost of mining higher and its difficulty. The quantity of the reward is lesser whilst the price of it should go up.

And that has been seen for the past years and last year's halving should have been taken effect this year but it seems that the expected sudden price increase had happened earlier.




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April 04, 2021, 04:13:55 PM
 #11

Price is currently being manipulated very hard by the Institutional investors and believe me, once they start their huge sell-off, then the confidence level of everyone in crypto will be completely shaken, so it won't be like everything going green today will always be green. Whatever goes up, comes down said Newton, remember that.
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April 04, 2021, 04:32:22 PM
 #12

I say it's too early for that, can't even speculate for the next year's price value. With such long, price will be ups and down but one thing it will be double or triple for the price today.

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April 04, 2021, 04:42:35 PM
 #13

   Are you out of topics to start? We can't talk about the price of bitcoin during the next halving in 2024 when we may to even correctly get the price prior to the halving, if you have been observant this bull run of 2020 ending shocked many even the best optimist, I think the next bitcoin halving is a very long way to go, so much can happen in between the years gap.

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April 04, 2021, 04:48:51 PM
 #14

You guys are already predicting the next pump after the halving?? Isn't it too early? We aren't even out of the current pump, why don't you guys find the peak of the current pump first then let Btc dump and then we'll figure out about next pump
There is no proof of causal relationship between Bitcoin halving and the price going up.
IMHO, there always been a relationship when bitcoin halves and the result of it always going to make bitcoin's price increase. Miners reward are becoming lesser and that makes it the cost of mining higher and its difficulty. The quantity of the reward is lesser whilst the price of it should go up.

And that has been seen for the past years and last year's halving should have been taken effect this year but it seems that the expected sudden price increase had happened earlier.
.
It's not about quantum of reward it's about the flow of supply of btc. There are a lot of articles which have focused on finding btc value using stock to flow model. This price increases sort of match with the thesis of that model.

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April 04, 2021, 04:56:12 PM
 #15

As per history, we might not determine which exact value bitcoin will fall on 2024, since we already know the volatility of the market. It could be positive or a negative impact in every definite situations, because it just depends on the whales who've invested their fortune with btc.
Without them, and the strong bonds from small investors who've take a ride since from the start of bullrun; we can't make what has been established right now.
If there's a positive outcome in 2024, I guess $100k per btc will commence in this year. But if a bearish happens I would love to see below $20k again once another reversal scenario might take place.

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April 04, 2021, 04:57:22 PM
 #16

I say it's too early for that...

  Are you out of topics to start? We can't talk about the price of bitcoin during the next halving in 2024 when we may to even correctly get the price prior to the halving, if you have been observant this bull run of 2020 ending shocked many even the best optimist, I think the next bitcoin halving is a very long way to go, so much can happen in between the years gap.

You guys are already predicting the next pump after the halving?? Isn't it too early?

Yes, lol. I don't know what's the point of trying to predict the next one now, but the OP is free to open whatever threads he wants. As to what he asks, I would say that if we are lucky in the next cycle we will hit $1M. We have to think that the supercycle theory already gives $1M as a top for this cycle, although it seems like too much to me (I'd be happy if we reached that figure, though).



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April 04, 2021, 06:21:58 PM
 #17

I think it is too early to prediction price of Bitcoin on 2024 halving, but we can see the big difference has been happened in btc price after previous halving so I hope it will be a big difference can be made in btc after 2024 bitcoin halving.

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April 04, 2021, 06:26:51 PM
 #18

Price is currently being manipulated very hard by the Institutional investors and believe me, once they start their huge sell-off, then the confidence level of everyone in crypto will be completely shaken, so it won't be like everything going green today will always be green. Whatever goes up, comes down said Newton, remember that.

This! It's my third bull market, and it has always ended the same way so far.
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April 04, 2021, 07:40:09 PM
 #19

It's too early to say at this point what will be the price on the next halving.

But everyone is seeing at least a six digit figure by then, there's a lot of prediction that we may hit it in this rally or at least in this bubble. Nevertheless, you can look at this modelling (S2F):

https://digitalik.net/btc/

So it's in the range of $100,000-$300,000.

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April 04, 2021, 09:21:34 PM
Merited by 7788bitcoin (1)
 #20

Price is currently being manipulated very hard by the Institutional investors and believe me, once they start their huge sell-off, then the confidence level of everyone in crypto will be completely shaken, so it won't be like everything going green today will always be green. Whatever goes up, comes down said Newton, remember that.
When Newton said these quotes he never thought his laws will be violated as anything that is propelled can break these rules especially rockets  Tongue.

The institutional investors are here to reap the profit and they are pumping the markets for a long time and i do agree that it does not stay like that for a long time but there are other business investments as well during the past few months, especially by PayPal as they started allowing customers to purchase the coins they need to hold the coins as reserves even though the customers are not allowed to withdraw.


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