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Author Topic: World risk - global  (Read 490 times)
paxmao
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April 20, 2021, 11:58:42 AM
Merited by DdmrDdmr (2)
 #1

For those unfamiliarised, this is a risk quadrant depicting the world level risks. How important the risk is is based on how likely is to materialise (likelyhood or frequency) and how bad is it (impact or severity).

For example something that is likely to happen and is disastrous will be on the top right corner. Risks that are unusual but terrible would be top left. In the inforgraphics you can see how climate change is quite likely and has severe consequences whereas weapons of mass destruction are less likely and even just equally as bad.

Now, where would you place the risk of a bitcoin hack o network problem in your finances and in the world finances?





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April 20, 2021, 12:15:16 PM
 #2

I think it's already there as "cybersecurity failure".

That's also one of those diamonds that looks like it's both too high and too low and should probably be split into finance and other infrastructure.

I'd have enough not in crypto to be able to trade my way up to what I've got over the course of about a year - diversifying isn't just assets, it can be skills too...


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April 20, 2021, 12:41:09 PM
 #3

The bitcoin risk for me is the price instability and this is surely what some are scared about and miss out in the benefit. For the risk takers, they are the investors that have eventually benefitted from bitcoin. Well about the price instability, a better knowledge about the purpose of bitcoin will teach us that we can't do anything about it. Either we take the risk or stay back while others go in. Is a choice however that we make that determines how we ball in the future.
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April 20, 2021, 01:15:57 PM
Merited by paxmao (1)
 #4

I would put it up there with "Asset Bubble burst" .... even though it is not a asset. Let's not forget that the Bitcoin price is determined by Supply & demand and any bad event or even government intervention..will have a detrimental impact on the price.

A government like the USA can ban Crypto currencies and it will cause a ripple affect on the demand side and the price can go into a downward spiral, like it did just after 2017.... when it went down to $3000+

As we have recently seen with fake tweets, spreading misinformation and causing the price to react negatively.  Roll Eyes

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April 20, 2021, 01:37:32 PM
Merited by paxmao (1)
 #5

It is not serious to me that anyone thinks that the risk of weapons of mass destruction is not likely given the amount of nuclear, chemical and biological weapons that will sooner or later be in the hands of some fanatics who will use them. I would move that risk at least in the middle or even further, but I agree that the risks in the upper right corner are already practically a done deal, and it's just a matter of their intensity when it comes to climate and dangerous weather phenomena that everyone can already feel on their skin.

When it comes to hacking Bitcoin, I don't think any option is likely in the near future, and I mean that someone manages to hack someone's private key and apply it en masse - because the technology behind Bitcoin is quite complex - and 51% an attack is an endeavor that is theoretically possible, but would require an incredible amount of money and coordination to perform. I would place that risk in Likelihood less then 2.5.

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April 20, 2021, 02:34:56 PM
 #6

I feel that cyber crime is indeed a threat but as long as technology exists, hacking behavior accounts for only a few percent of the success of the technology.  Hackers are geniuses when it comes to bad things but there are many more geniuses who support and protect the good.  Hacking is sure to happen but this will not be very massive and will make the whole technology destroy instantly.  An act of this magnitude does require coordination from the many parties involved.  So, I still think this cyber risk will only occupy 3.0 points.  The category is still not that bad, only the impact will be very big later.


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April 20, 2021, 02:39:57 PM
Merited by bitmover (1)
 #7

I would never trust any World Economic Forum reports or anything their founder Klaus Schwab said.
Just remember their 2030 report agenda titled You'll own nothing, and you'll be happy or listen some of the recent Klaus Schwab interviews.
I expect them to push very hard Climate Change agenda and that could be one of the high risk factors, and like Klaus Schwab said himself, possible Cyber Attack would make complete halt to power supply, transportation, hospitals and covid19 would look like a small disturbance compared to this.


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April 20, 2021, 02:53:56 PM
 #8

I expect them to push very hard Climate Change agenda

many of the "top risks" are from the climate change agenda.

Take a look at those:

-Natural Resources Crisis
-Biodiversity loss
-Human Environmental damage
-Extreme Weather
-Climate Action failure (the top one)
-backlash against science (which is the same as backlash against climate change agenda)

Actually, nearly all of the risks mentioned in the infographic are related.

For example, if there are huge extreme weather impact it may be followed by a industry collapse, debt crisis (as government will spend more money to recover economy), which will lead to Youth disillusionment (because they will have no jobs)  and so on....

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April 20, 2021, 05:04:21 PM
Merited by paxmao (1)
 #9

For example, if there are huge extreme weather impact it may be followed by a industry collapse, debt crisis (as government will spend more money to recover economy), which will lead to Youth disillusionment (because they will have no jobs)  and so on....

I would put "youth disillusionment" in the far left bottom corner, youths are always disillusioned when they grow up, it happens with every generation, there is no "risk" is a sure thing and it will be the same for every generation no matter what you try to do, it's unavoidable.

It is not serious to me that anyone thinks that the risk of weapons of mass destruction is not likely given the amount of nuclear, chemical and biological weapons that will sooner or later be in the hands of some fanatics who will use them.


I rank the nuclear war at the same risk, close to zero compared with the others, and my argument would be that in the last 70 years with nukes on our had none got used in a real war, even when things were far more serious like Korea or Vietnam or close to a war like Cuba, as for the rest to a smaller or greater degree they already happened and some not just once.
We had state collapse, we had a natural disaster with hundreds of thousands of deaths, we had a crisis with every resource from copper to oil, migration (and not only recently) basically everything there.

I don't understand why they think the illicit economic activity is less probable than some of those, that one is one that is bound to our economy, it will never get away no matter what you try.



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April 20, 2021, 08:27:29 PM
 #10

Climate problem is so severe yet the world is not doing anything about it. There are a lot of people who believe it is a hoax as well, we are literally dying as species because of it but nobody cares, the world will become more and more inhabitable place in the near future, it used to be something dangerous but right now we are already way beyond that, now we are at a point where it is guaranteed that the world will have a big trouble, but are we going to all die as humanity or not that is where we are right now, if we can start doing something we can actually maybe die in billions but not as a whole, but if we do not do anything then we will all die, there will no longer be any humans on earth in 50 years if this keeps going on.

I know this is not about bitcoin hack or network failure I am sorry but it just bothers me so much to see people not caring about it.

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April 20, 2021, 10:18:51 PM
 #11

For those unfamiliarised, this is a risk quadrant depicting the world level risks. How important the risk is is based on how likely is to materialise (likelyhood or frequency) and how bad is it (impact or severity).

For example something that is likely to happen and is disastrous will be on the top right corner. Risks that are unusual but terrible would be top left. In the inforgraphics you can see how climate change is quite likely and has severe consequences whereas weapons of mass destruction are less likely and even just equally as bad.

Now, where would you place the risk of a bitcoin hack o network problem in your finances and in the world finances?



First, the axis is cut off so the graph is truncated and skewed to the upper right as displayed.  That said, I'd place breaking the Bitcoin encryption very low likelihood axis and moderately low on the impact axis.  It would be low enough on both that it wouldn't show on this graph, down in the lower left corner of an expanded graph.  On a global scale, the impact would be fairly minimal at this point, but the likelihood would be far lower due to the calculations how how much computing power it would take to crack the encryption and how many years it would take.

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April 21, 2021, 09:45:22 AM
 #12

Climate problem is so severe yet the world is not doing anything about it. There are a lot of people who believe it is a hoax as well, we are literally dying as species because of it but nobody cares, the world will become more and more inhabitable place in the near future, it used to be something dangerous but right now we are already way beyond that, now we are at a point where it is guaranteed that the world will have a big trouble, but are we going to all die as humanity or not that is where we are right now, if we can start doing something we can actually maybe die in billions but not as a whole, but if we do not do anything then we will all die, there will no longer be any humans on earth in 50 years if this keeps going on.

I know this is not about bitcoin hack or network failure I am sorry but it just bothers me so much to see people not caring about it.
That's because they are lobbied to not change a thing about the energy sources, also it is really expensive to change from fossil fuel to renewable sources or nuclear, and there is also the unreliability of renewable sources in terms of electricity, we have to also innovate on power reserves like more efficient batteries to store energy, and in terms of nuclear, we don't have a lot of innovations in that field after the Cold War, most are old models and building a new one can take years but if the government has the will to do it and has the money and support, I think that we can see some changes.

I would probably put in the mid tier but not likely to happen because in the likely event that we lose money, financial collapse is going to happen but to happen takes planning and technology to pull it off.

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April 21, 2021, 11:36:42 AM
 #13

A big bitcoin exchange hack I would put on the to left corner. With the bitcoin price being between 50-60,000 USD there is a lot of money being invested. If news would spread that a big exchange got hacked than the prices would probably fall. And when the stolen coins are being dumped into the market than the coins would fall even further. So the impact would be severe while the chances are not that high. We have seen big hacks in the past and the companies upgraded their security.

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April 21, 2021, 07:48:40 PM
 #14

For those unfamiliarised, this is a risk quadrant depicting the world level risks. How important the risk is is based on how likely is to materialise (likelyhood or frequency) and how bad is it (impact or severity).

For example something that is likely to happen and is disastrous will be on the top right corner. Risks that are unusual but terrible would be top left. In the inforgraphics you can see how climate change is quite likely and has severe consequences whereas weapons of mass destruction are less likely and even just equally as bad.

Now, where would you place the risk of a bitcoin hack o network problem in your finances and in the world finances?


Great post, the diagram itself is very informative. It's quite depressing that the terrorist attacks have so high probability of happening throughout 3021. Quite a few others don't surprise at all, such as extreme weather, climate action failure or infection diseases (See Covid-19, and there are probably more to come in the future).

I would also add immigration crisis, if I am not mistaken, it's not in the chart, it was a pretty controversial subject throughout years 2019-2020, and it's an occurring matter as we speak.



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April 21, 2021, 08:23:44 PM
 #15

Well for me, --most of the climate, environment, science are actually the real risk we had to be ready for. As this is very much uncontrollable right away. Comparing it to massive destruction, proper negotiation, and avoiding international conflict could avoid, nature which won’t really give as much mercy if in case it happens. It would also affect all of the sectors we have on an economic basis massively. Resources being wasted, harvest being damaged and non-edible, properties being reduced to almost zero, and so on and so forth. The infographic somehow has a point and almost accurate. I really like how they did it and the evidence of having it studied is great.


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April 21, 2021, 11:09:49 PM
 #16

Well for me, --most of the climate, environment, science are actually the real risk we had to be ready for. As this is very much uncontrollable right away. Comparing it to massive destruction, proper negotiation, and avoiding international conflict could avoid, nature which won’t really give as much mercy if in case it happens. It would also affect all of the sectors we have on an economic basis massively. Resources being wasted, harvest being damaged and non-edible, properties being reduced to almost zero, and so on and so forth. The infographic somehow has a point and almost accurate. I really like how they did it and the evidence of having it studied is great.
It's definitely the most alarming issue, in which no immediate action can be taken against it to instantly stop it. All those years of irresponsibility and environmental negligence, wars, nuclear weapons and so on, not caring about the consequences altogether, has lead the planet to a point of no return.



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April 21, 2021, 11:12:39 PM
 #17

I would put this risk somewhere near "Weapons of mass destruction", but lower, around 3.5 on this scale. The likelihood of a Bitcoin hack or problem with a financing network on a global scale is very low, but the consequences of such events would be severe. Money is everything in our world and too many people and companies lately are involved with Bitcoin, thus, such an event would have a very serious impact on the global economy.

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April 21, 2021, 11:27:17 PM
 #18

Now, where would you place the risk of a bitcoin hack o network problem in your finances and in the world finances?



....

Quote
Federal Reserve Hacked More Than 50 Times In 4 Years

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve detected more than 50 cyber breaches between 2011 and 2015, with several incidents described internally as “espionage,” according to Fed records.

The central bank’s staff suspected hackers or spies in many of the incidents, the records show. The Fed’s computer systems play a critical role in global banking and hold confidential information on discussions about monetary policy that drives financial markets.

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/hackers-breach-federal-reserve-50-times_n_574ee0d5e4b0757eaeb1194c


In Kevin Mitnick's (2003) cybersecurity book "The Art of Deception" it is claimed that more than 80% of businesses with an internet presence are electronically compromised at some point in time. With a high percentage of attacks executed by current or former employees. I would guess the state of affairs in 2021 is far worse. With states and governments having accumulated stockpiles of electronic vulnerabilities/attacks coupled with a greater integration of internet and electronic warfare.

These days it would appear that everything is being hacked.

A better question to ask could be: what isn't hacked -- there is a shorter list of candidates and it is easier to answer.

...

That is an interesting infographic published by the world economic forum btw. Segments of it could be disputed if efforts are made to separate the political elements from the science.

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April 21, 2021, 11:55:42 PM
 #19

I'd put it near the asset bubble burst. Though bitcoin saw a lot of crashes through the years, it's no denying that a lot of people right now are getting involved in the digital currency. And we're no longer talking about billions of $ in growth, but rather hundreds of billions. The impact may not be severe should bitcoin sees itself falling back down to pre-2020 levels, but still is enough to make waves on the financial industry especially the big names who have lots of stake in the cryptocurrency and are the key movers of it currently.

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April 22, 2021, 02:01:53 AM
 #20

The scale makes absolutely no sense. How do weapons of mass destruction have a lower impact compared to the pandemic?

Seems as if they just plotted a bunch of potential events arbitrarily along the axes.

It's interesting that they rank "asset bubble burst" as both a more likely and serious event compared to public infrastructure failure, though. Whilst the equities markets are indeed going to be very prone to collapse at such heights, it's barely even in the same neighbourhood of influence as if electricity suddenly went out worldwide.

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