And the transaction finally got confirmed at 9.15 UTC, 25 April, block 60536. So in total just under 5 days for a 9-input spend, miners fee only 21 sats/byte. Ho hum, I was really waiting to see if it'd take a week but if this is the worst that can happen for a super-low urgency tx, then I'm really not worried at all.
Recommended 28 sats/byte now too. Feel a bit let down my experiment ended so soon, to be honest!
Thanks for the clarity as i was wondering how long it will take for normal transaction charges to get through which i was doing before the hash rate drop and since there was no clarity regarding that i never made any transactions because i am particularly keen about not sending more money as transaction charges and yet do not want to get stuck without knowing when it will get confirmed and i want to send the coins to gambling sites and if it does not confirm in a specific time period some of the sites will term them as double spent or cancelled transaction and it is a headache to sort that out.
There's never any real hard measure for it, everything is an estimation at the current network situation and some prediction thrown in. You don't always get a block every 10 minutes, you don't always get the same number of txs in a block, so fee estimations can very easily be over/under estimations in just a small period of time. Find an estimator you're comfortable with, over estimate fees if it's urgent. And use RBF in case you need to hasten txs (I know only of one service that doesn't like RBF (BitPay) and I'm ready to bet no casino would ever mark RBF as "bad").