My feelings after 11 years with crypto.

[Ben Barubal]

Hello everyone, today i want to tell you about my crypto-depression.
So in 2010 i was working in IT company and my friend from work told me about bitcoin mining.
Next day after this information i register on this forum and start mining coins, everything going perfect but bitcoin price was really low and unstable.
I was investing everything in gpu. Couple times i lost my fund's on scam-exchange but i still had a lot of "mining power".
In 2015 i quited my job and invest my whole savings in bitcoin, in that time i had more than 15 bitcoin's and gpu worth 20k$.
And after 2 or 3 week's everything fucked up, in same time i lost my job and my wife get sicked.
In Nov 2015 i selled everything but still i had -$$$$ to pay, so you probably asking why i made this post?

Now after 6 years i have biggest depression ever, if i only burrow money from somewhere 5 years ago and didnt sell my miners...

I have feelings that i lost my biggest life chance to get really rich and i just want to forget about crypto and work in normal work but it is impossible.
It's hurt much more if you can see that your old crypto-friend's get cars and houses from crypto profit, i wonder if someone have some feeling's as me.

First of all, I am sorry for the sad and bad experience you faced here when you entered the cryptocurrency industry. And you also put out quite a lot of investment when you started here, and everything you put out ended up in nothing. 15 bitcoins is too much amount right now if I calculate the price of bitcoin currently. A little, it's depressing, but still, cheer yourself up, I believe that all bad experiences have a good reward in the end. And from what I see in you, you will overcome this test in your life.

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[JayJuanGee]

What happens when all bitcoin are mined and demand peaks? Will the price still go up? Always wondered about this scenario.

Aren't we getting so much beyond the topic of this thread?

Sure we can outline reasons why normies (and even not normies) are going to end up losing confidence in bitcoin's long term sustainability, and surely there are quite a few responses to this.. and of course, the responses are somewhat speculative, too.

I have frequently found that attempts to focus on base case scenarios tend to be way better then getting caught upon thousands of "what ifs?"  It seems far from prudent to be holding off on investing into bitcoin because we are worried about one "what if?" or another "what if?" that are likely fringe scenarios at best....

So the possibility that a lot of weird ass negative things could end up happening to bitcoin should contributed to how much to invest into bitcoin rather than negating investing into bitcoin.

Maybe we can use Armaggaedon as an example?  If you proclaim that there are 10% odds that armaggaedon could happen in the next 10 years, then you better not be putting more than 10% preparations into that... You are crazy if you put 20%, 50% or even 80% preparations into a scenario that you believe to have 10% odds

Of course, people are not necessarily going to agree on the odds, either.  Maybe I assign 1% odds and you assign 20% odds?  and so our investment should be attempted to tailor to our own views rather than the views of someone else.

All the bitcoins will be mined by around 2140, so your problem of running out of mined bitcoins does not really seem very urgent, and there are also theories regarding how to deal with it, but some of those theories are not even going to be very applicable until getting closer to seeing how the facts (and the whole system evolves in the next 50 years or more)..  We are still a bit less than 14 years into this bitcoin system going live, so a lot of aspects are still developing, even though bitcoin continues to largely be built upon its foundations, but there have been on the top developments, such as lightning network and other aspects in which incentives can be affected, and we cannot try to resolve incentives nearly 120 years down the road with any degree of specificity  even though there are possibilities that fee markets can continue to evolve in which the mostly existing bitcoin system can keep going without any major changes, even if mining rewards are completely dependent on fees rather than mining rewards as they have existed so far and are gradually reducing every 4 years to get us to the point that we will be in 120years from now..

What I find amazing and crazy is all the companies like celsius and 3arrows who made bets as if they were listening to that keiser chap. Or even Saylor.

They were going beyond Keiser and Saylor and some of the stuff they were doing were pure scams.. so you seem to be making pretty bad comparisons if we were to want to actually attempt to get into details about what was going on.

The losses they have made is spectacular.
Imagine if you had listened to Saylor and put a million in at 40 or 60k - right now you would not be impressed or happy.

Saylor is doing o.k.  You better try to tailor to your own approach rather than blanketly listening to someone who has different circumstances than you.

[edited out]

You are not Michael Saylor are you?

Missing

I guess you are one of those programmer types who is really into bitcoin. Thats fair enough.

I am not very technically sophisticated, so I still have some difficulties with some of the technical aspects.. including programing.. though I do like to see some of the technical discussions, but it usually does not take very long before they go over my head.

I lost a lot with bitcoin from early years to hacking, and all sorts.

I lost coins to hacks and other ways too, including some issues with exchanges, and it seems that the longer that we are into bitcoin, then we are likely to have had come across some of these kinds of situations.. especially if we end up wanting to get involved in some of the bitcoin ecosystem beyond merely stashing coins into cold storage.. and even some guys lose coins in cold storage because they might make systems that are too complicated for their own recovery.  Being your own bank is not always an easy road forward.

Another common mistake is getting distracted into shitcoins, and I tend to be pretty vocal in terms of trying to avoid that, so in that regard, I mostly try to stay away from the shitcoin discussions - even though it seems inevitable that many of us will get exposed to that nonsense merely be being in the space. .and there is also a lot of convoluted mixing up of bitcoin and shitcoins because many shitcoins do that on purpose to pump their coins, but also there are likely powers that be (institutions and governments and even those stupid-ass venture capitalists who are pumping and dumping onto retail) who also engage in such purposeful convolution of the bitcoin topic.

I am no longer that into it as I was before - its been ten years. Gox was the main exchange once and I thought the eastern european Bistamp would hack me not the Japanese. It turns out the Japanese was Mr Karpeles who eats bitcoin. Lost my life savings.

Karpeles was probably not an evil person, but he did end up biting off a lot more than he could chew.. so it was a bit of a mess and still continues to linger.. like a bit of a black shadow, but it is also still a decently large part of bitcoin's history to attempt to learn from those kinds of matters... even though some folks learn in more personal ways than others.

I do think btc promotes hoarding, and what would be perfect is something that can not be stolen, or seen by the government.

I don't know how you can get anything much more perfect than bitcoin.  I mean it is what it is, and it is amazing if you really try to understand what it aimed to do and what it is doing, even after nearly 14 years in existence.

There is still nothing that even comes close to bitcoin in terms of an ability to decentrally hold value and to pretty much be able to send it anywhere in the world without anyone being able to do shit about it.  Sure, there are technical aspects that are pretty complicated, and there are even user-interface matters that continue to be complicated, even after nearly 14 years of existence...

I like to try to appreciate matters for what they are rather than what I wished them to be, so if we look at bitcoin and we attempt to understand it and to work with it for what it is, then what are we going to do?  buy some or refrain from buying any?  I think that everyone should at least buy a bit.. and be whimpy 1% of your investment portfolio.. and forget about it, even though DCAing would be better, but you can choose your amount. $100 per week or $10 per week or some other amount.. and then in the beginning maybe holding what you have on exchanges is acceptable, but yeah it can be kind of risky too if something like Celsius, Voyager or one of the others goes belly up.. then you are fucked... or at least quite likely to be fucked... and even some bitcoiners got caught up in the Tera/Luna/Do Kwan bullshit too.. because they thought that bitcoin's built in pumpamentals was not enough.. hahahahhaha.. they wanted to earn yield.. fuck that.. they wanted 4%, 8%.. 12%.. 20%?.. .. Yeah, the lower yield levels seem more possible, but if you invested in Voyager and got 4%, then Voyager claimed that they were being prudent with your money, and they sent 58% of all assets in their possession to 3AC without getting any collateral from 3AC, which amounted to about $640million dllars on a personl loan to 3AC because Voyager wanted to earn 20% while they were paying their clients 4%.. scammy as fuck and some of those guys should be in jail even though they are lawyered up to the brim.

So, yeah we should attempt to realize that it is better to attempt to hold our own keys (at least the majority of our own keys), and realize that any third party may well be gambling with your funds  if you leave your funds with them.

You better be careful if you presume bitcoin to be broken merely because there were rich ass fucktwats gambling with it and gambling with client's money, and in the end, both innocent and guilty folks got purged from their coins, and they were even double accounting for quite a few of coins that they did not even have.  People who hold their own keys suffered BTC price depreciation based on the gambling of others, but what's going to happen from here?  Bitcoin could go up or it could go down, but still seems like a good investment to me.. even if it might go down some more for a period of time.. but it might not as well.  You gotta figure out your allocation, and it seems that having some allocation is better than having none.. but the level of your allocation and the whether of your getting involved remains your choice.

I also feel the biggest reason the Fed allow btc to continue is due to the fact they can see every transaction on the ledger.

It's like a Trojan horse no?  Can they stop you from sending a million to Iran or to North Korea?  I am not advocating the breaking of any laws.. I am just asking a question.  What if you use lightning network?  What if you have a lot of small transactions are they going to be able to keep track of all of your purchases like credit cards?   And, really do you think that the Fed has much of a choice in terms of game theory?  What if they "did not allow" bitcoin to continue to exist?  What do you think would happen?

Yes, the "Fed" might play that "you no longer exist" card, but I doubt that it would go very well for them, and that is why they have to engage in more passive-aggressive divide and conquer behaviors... .. so does that mean you buy some or you stay out of it?  That's your choice.

If every crypto was without public ledger - highly likely they would all have been banned.

You sound mixed up here.

The only reason any other crypto exists, beyond bitcoin is because bitcoin is a difficult nut to crack.  Bitcoin is the only threat to the status quo or the powers that be, and not all the powers that be believe bitcoin is a threat, and some of the powers that be believe that it would be better to have bitcoin... so it is not an open and closed case, for sure.

It's basically auto compliance reported by the ledger. I no longer feel bitcoin or crypto is perfect in that regard.

Fuck crypto.. who gives any shits about that?

Focus on bitcoin..

By the way, regarding your point about bitcoin's design choice to be public, there is a lot of rationale that bitcoin gains a quite a bit of its credibility because everyone (or anyone) has the ability to verify what the fuck is going and to verify every single satoshi that exists.  They can do such verification with about $200 in hardware.   Pretty powerful, don't you think?  

You might want to get some, in case it catches on.. hahahahahahaha

[goldrushed2]

I dont believe these things in the world of finance are by chance buddy. I doubt CBDC thought oh bitcoin what a great idea lets do something similar.
Digital things can reduce cost, and are much easier to manage and control. Bitcoin is great I still have a soft spot from the days of buying at 1USD on Gox.
But have you read CBDC whitepapers? Seen how Chinas CBDC operates?

[lucates]

Hello everyone, today i want to tell you about my crypto-depression.
So in 2010 i was working in IT company and my friend from work told me about bitcoin mining.
Next day after this information i register on this forum and start mining coins, everything going perfect but bitcoin price was really low and unstable.
I was investing everything in gpu. Couple times i lost my fund's on scam-exchange but i still had a lot of "mining power".
In 2015 i quited my job and invest my whole savings in bitcoin, in that time i had more than 15 bitcoin's and gpu worth 20k$.
And after 2 or 3 week's everything fucked up, in same time i lost my job and my wife get sicked.
In Nov 2015 i selled everything but still i had -$$$$ to pay, so you probably asking why i made this post?

Now after 6 years i have biggest depression ever, if i only burrow money from somewhere 5 years ago and didnt sell my miners...

I have feelings that i lost my biggest life chance to get really rich and i just want to forget about crypto and work in normal work but it is impossible.
It's hurt much more if you can see that your old crypto-friend's get cars and houses from crypto profit, i wonder if someone have some feeling's as me.

Many of my friends shared their stories like calculated or affordable losses and gains. But for the first time, I heard a life-changing experience. Maybe because we started only a few years ago, but early adopter like you definitely it's a turning point. And I hope, after all, these experiences and knowledge will make you a millionaire one day. Best wishes

[8rch7]

I am very sure that if you have entered the crypto world for a long time, it is certain that your life is now starting to improve, even though you are not a millionaire but at least you have managed to make your family happy and can enjoy the results you get from bitcoin, but if you feel lost because you don't sell it when the price was high in 2017, I don't think it's the biggest regret, because we don't know what will happen in the future, I personally think the most meaningful thing you can get from bitcoin is a very valuable experience, don't never regret what has happened and try to get up to create opportunities in the future, because now many other coins have appeared.

[Rehan Zakir]

It's a bad luck for you brother. But don't worry there are lot of opportunities available in market to get huge profit. If you invest 1000$ in a altcoin and it's price become 100x then your 1000$ becomes 100,000. I already know lot of coins that gives these types of massive profits. So, there are lot of opportunities you just need to find that.
So, don't upset and start your journey in crypto market from today with a mission to become millionaire

[JayJuanGee]

I dont believe these things in the world of finance are by chance buddy. I doubt CBDC thought oh bitcoin what a great idea lets do something similar.
Digital things can reduce cost, and are much easier to manage and control. Bitcoin is great I still have a soft spot from the days of buying at 1USD on Gox.
But have you read CBDC whitepapers? Seen how Chinas CBDC operates?

I get the impression that you are quite easily distracted into various fringe cases that keep you from figuring out your bitcoin allocation to be something greater than zero and your investment timeline in regards to bitcoin to be something greater than short term trading.

Yes, CBDCs are likely another one of the many reactions to bitcoin, and they are truly quite different from bitcoin... if you were to happen to understand bitcoin...

Sure, you can reminisce on the good ole days of cheaper BTC prices, whether referring to $1 BTC or some other lower price that is unlikely to return, and maybe even having some personal understandings of historical BTC price moves can contribute towards your being more informed about current bitcoin happenings - even though in your case, I question the extent to which you actually appreciate the power of bitcoin including its current investment use case instead of seeming to be ongoingly afraid to establish some kind of meaningful long term stake in it.

Ultimately it is up to you what to do, including others who may be similarly situated to you in terms of their seemingly ongoing hesitant psychology around bitcoin.

Sure maybe if you went from 600-ish BTC in 2014-ish to zero in present, and you are proclaiming that 600 BTC at that time was a decently large portion of your networth or the value of your total investment portfolio, then it may well be quite difficult to get back to anything close to 600 BTC - and maybe similarly with OP proclaiming to to have sold all of his then 15 BTC in late 2015 - which at most might have been near $7,500 for all of them ($500 x 15).

At the same time, many of us who have been in bitcoin for a decently long period of time can appreciate that historically even a relatively modest ongoing investment into bitcoin could have allowed for a decent amount of BTC accumulation - even something as low as $10 per week could have gotten someone like you around a 4.5 BTC accumulation based on $4,440 invested if we go from late February 2014 (When Gox collapsed) to present, and OP could have accumulated about 1.3 BTC based on $3,400 invested if he had started investing $10 week starting in late February 2016 (after he might have realized that he sold too much of his BTC to soon) to present.  Of course, a more aggressive approach (but still relatively modest for some folks) of investing $100 per week would have caused the accumulating of 10x more BTC of 45 BTC for you (costing $44,400) and 13 BTC for OP (costing $34,000) respectively, and even if neither of you were able to get back to your prior levels of BTC accumulation, each of you would still have had been decently advantaged by employing such an ongoing BTC accumulation approach (or some variation of such that might be more appropriate to your personal financial situation).  

One good thing about DCA is that you should be able to reduce the negative aspects (the reservations) of the psychological component by choosing a DCA amount that is something sufficiently low that you would not necessarily miss it... but then at the same time, since both of you do seem to have fucked-up psychological problems, you may well end up having regrets that you had not invested enough.. hahahahahaha... damned if you do, and damned if you don't.. especially if you are ongoingly experiencing fucked-up psychological problems in which you always see the glass as half-full no matter what happens..

It's a bad luck for you brother. But don't worry there are lot of opportunities available in market to get huge profit. If you invest 1000$ in a altcoin and it's price become 100x then your 1000$ becomes 100,000. I already know lot of coins that gives these types of massive profits. So, there are lot of opportunities you just need to find that.
So, don't upset and start your journey in crypto market from today with a mission to become millionaire

Don't fuck around with shitcoins.. it is a BIG ASS waste of time.

Stick with bitcoin, and develop a solid plan around with bitcoin without getting caught up in the bullshit pump and dump distracting gambling scams that may or may not work... fuck that shit.. stick with a more solid long term investment platform and plan, such as investing in bitcoin thinking of both the upside and downside and at the same time not having to worry about when to get in and out.. just get in.. and get started and create a modest or an somewhat aggressive plan, reassess along the way and 4-10 years (or maybe longer) you might start considering cashing some of them out or just continuing to let the investment ride depending on your investment timeline considerations.

[aquafinewater]

I have not too much experience in crypto market but according to to my experience never invest in shit coin I,m also  lost my money in these coin always choose top coin like Bitcoin etc .. because investment in these coin never gone ...... To zero

[goldrushed2]

Im confused - does bitcoin use cryptography or not? Am I allowed to call it crypto?

[goldrushed2]

Yeah stick with high liquidity is safest so bitcoin and eth. Got my eye on one new ICO though.

[goldrushed2]

i sent a lot of btc once to someone and the network wanted extortionate fees - i just put standard fee - it took 30 days to confirm. that was back in around 2017 at xmas. by the time the chap got my transfer the coin was worth 30% less at least. bummer hey.

[JayJuanGee]

Im confused - does bitcoin use cryptography or not? Am I allowed to call it crypto?

Don't be confused.

Don't use vague and amorphous terms.

If you are talking about bitcoin, then use the word bitcoin.

If you are talking about something else, then use the appropriate word and/or the appropriate descriptors.

Crypto is a vague and amorphous term in which frequently readers are not going to know what the fuck you are talking about and perhaps even suspect that you do not know what the fuck you are talking about because you fail/refuse to specify in regards to what topic you are wanting to speak.

By the way, when we talk about bitcoin, are we talking about cryptography? or are we talking about something else?  I don't understand why you would want to continue to use a term (such as crypto to amorphously talk about a topic) that you believe is descriptive, when it is actually misleading in the context that you are using it, and then you want to suggest that there is some kind of profound reason for using that vague-ass dumb term.

Another thing that you may or may not have noticed is that a whole hell of a lot of shitcoins, including but not limited to the shitcoin of shitcoins, aka ethereum, put out dumb talking points in which they try to suggest that they are somehow similar to bitcoin but just of another variation and blah blah blah nonsense that seems to purposefully confuse people in terms of what is being discussed and distracts folks from sufficiently/adequately understanding what is bitcoin.  Are you one of those folks who want to purposefully confuse folks?  and maybe to pump some nonsense like ethereum as if it were some kind of similar product.. blah blah blah.. even governments and financial institutions seem to love the fuck out of ethereum and they usually will speak in vague-ass nonsense terms and even fail refuse (maybe they are afraid) to use the actual word bitcoin... and maybe they fail/refuse to use the term bitcoin because they have hardly any clue about what bitcoin actually is.. are you one of those folks?

Yeah stick with high liquidity is safest so bitcoin and eth. Got my eye on one new ICO though.

Fuck eth.

Of course, you are equating bitcoin and eth based on liquidity, and sure liquidity is part of the package for sure, and maybe even more important for short term analysis.... .. but whatever, do what you like.  That's your choice.

i sent a lot of btc once to someone and the network wanted extortionate fees - i just put standard fee - it took 30 days to confirm. that was back in around 2017 at xmas. by the time the chap got my transfer the coin was worth 30% less at least. bummer hey.

Yes.. there was a spam attack on the bitcoin network that lasted about two months.. maybe even a bit longer that was pretty much all of December 2017 and all of January 2018.. There's more going on in bitcoin rather than merely a period of time in which there were high fees, and there is also fluctuation in bitcoin fees, too.. but a lot disingenuine BIG blocker nutjobs (bitcoin naysayers, deluded twats and other shitcoin pumpers) like to bring up that period of Bitcoin high fees as if it was reflective of bitcoin - even though it is reflective of a period and a kind of battle that was going on in the space at that time... and a battle that largely did not stop completely (especially since the information is still used by the butt hurt twats.. because largely bitcoin won that battle, even though the butt hurt twats like to continue to bring it up as if it were a negative and representative bitcoin attribute).

[goldrushed2]

LTC on Gox! Remember that one 

[goldrushed2]

In traditional markets a longterm depression is forecast. Commodities though will show resilience. I am not emotionally attached to any asset. Just highlighting we can all have big eff ups but opportunity will be there. I hope you all do well.

[ajiz138]

Of course, there is nothing wrong with tailoring your BTC accumulation strategy to your own situation, and it is likely much better to do so.  One of the reasons that I continue harp upon DCA as the best of strategies is because it can help to get newbies started right away, and it is also a very good strategy for people who have been in bitcoin for a long time but just do not want to spend a lot of time trying to figure out what to do in terms of buying on dip or lump sum investing, and it is also amongst the better ways to NOT run out of cash because the DCA strategy should be applied in amounts that fit with the budget of the BTC accumulator and maybe tweaked from time to time when cashflow changes happen or other relevant changes happen in personal circumstances.

Yes it was an adjustment I bought when it dip some time ago and until now still doing it will still I want more to save BTC in any way including the DCA strategy, maybe I have known for a long time about this but I don't feel how this can be done accumulated with my finances but if I have agreed to it, it means that I am ready in the sense that the DCA strategy is carried out and buying Dips is still valid for my investment then this is a little impressive, isn't it? Regarding my finances, of course there are adjustments in the sense that I have to be able to do this and try it.

I looked at your forum registration date and you have been registered on the forum for nearly as long as me.

I've been on this forum for a long time, but I haven't been active for several years for personal reasons, while investing in bitcoin I never forget and I do it every time I have money.
My portfolio is still holding up despite being inactive here.

There are a couple of things that I do that seem to be helpful on this point.  First, I have had a tendency to project my cashflows out a couple of years in advance on an Excel spreadsheet, so I can see how much much money I have available for investing into bitcoin on a monthly basis.  Second, when I first got into bitcoin in late 2013, I had given myself a 6 month budget that was a certain amount of money, and I divided that amount by 26 in order to give myself a weekly allowance.  Each week I tried to strategize buying on dips, but if I had not spent the whole amount of my allowance by the end of the week, then I would just buy at whatever price just to make sure that I spent that allowance amount for the week.

Notes in Excel spreadsheets are important, when I start investing in bitcoin I always record it there, for example I bought bitcoin at a price of $24,655 on Sunday so I never go through this because it is important to know the money invested every month and can accumulate the average value of his purchases to make it easier.
But the record is still lacking in 1 year but I still keep it.

I believe that I have learned NOT to panic as easily as I had previously, and I believe that I have been fairly successful in that direction, but still there can be circumstances in which BTC price performance (including various extremes) can end up testing your psychology and even realizing that if you reassess the situation and change some of your planned strategies, then you will feel a lot better...  For example, this last time around, after BTC price dropped below $35k in early May-ish, it seems that I had to readjust my plans at leas 5-6 times, and usually (in recent times) I do not tend to change my plans very frequently, but BTC prices ended up going down way further beyond extremes points that many of us expected (including yours truly). 

For this I am also the same when I buy high suddenly the price drops I don't feel panic anymore I tend to be more persistent and don't see the market or any news but I always see history that bitcoin can rise again.
Psychologically it is important for adjustment to realize that we can get through when the period of increase comes, here I only see when the price goes down that I return to the market again.

[goldrushed2]

I just shorted bitcoin. Only joking. But maybe who knows.......

[JayJuanGee]

Of course, there is nothing wrong with tailoring your BTC accumulation strategy to your own situation, and it is likely much better to do so.  One of the reasons that I continue harp upon DCA as the best of strategies is because it can help to get newbies started right away, and it is also a very good strategy for people who have been in bitcoin for a long time but just do not want to spend a lot of time trying to figure out what to do in terms of buying on dip or lump sum investing, and it is also amongst the better ways to NOT run out of cash because the DCA strategy should be applied in amounts that fit with the budget of the BTC accumulator and maybe tweaked from time to time when cashflow changes happen or other relevant changes happen in personal circumstances.

Yes it was an adjustment I bought when it dip some time ago and until now still doing it will still I want more to save BTC in any way including the DCA strategy, maybe I have known for a long time about this but I don't feel how this can be done accumulated with my finances but if I have agreed to it, it means that I am ready in the sense that the DCA strategy is carried out and buying Dips is still valid for my investment then this is a little impressive, isn't it? Regarding my finances, of course there are adjustments in the sense that I have to be able to do this and try it.

Of course lump sum is going to do better if the price goes up and does not go back down, and it will also do better if you have some kind of idea that the price is going to go down, but I would wager that an overwhelming majority of us really do not know, and after the fact sometimes we might end up kicking ourselves as if we "should have known" but the fact of the matter is that we really cannot know BTC price direction with any meaningful degree of certainty.

So, even if you were to take portfolios of people who are trying to time the price versus those who DCA, you are likely going to get better performance with the DCA.. and even if you believe that you can beat a regular DCA approach, you have to account for your time too.. and in that regard, sure you might consider that it is fun to practice figuring out the BTC price movement in order to time the dips, if any, but you can still play around with attempting to buy the dips while DCAing at the same time... You would just not be using your whole budget for buying dips, merely a fraction of your budget would be used for buying dips.. and you can determine how much of a fraction you would like that to be - even if you appreciate that maybe it is better to not be wasting too much of your time and just make yourself buy regularly. .and maybe hold back on over stragetizing and/or over thinking the matter..

I looked at your forum registration date and you have been registered on the forum for nearly as long as me.

I've been on this forum for a long time, but I haven't been active for several years for personal reasons, while investing in bitcoin I never forget and I do it every time I have money.
My portfolio is still holding up despite being inactive here.

Well, if we consider that you could have employed a DCA strategy throughout that time, and even invested a relatively small amount of $10 per week for the past 8 years which would have added up to about $4,180 invested, and would have gotten you nearly 4 BTC, and of course, if you had been able to take a bit more of an aggressive stance, then you could have invested 10x that amount at $100 per week and you would have invested $41,800 and would have gotten about 40 BTC during that same time.  So DCA can be very powerful, even with relatively modest amounts invested on an ongoing and regular basis.

There are a couple of things that I do that seem to be helpful on this point.  First, I have had a tendency to project my cashflows out a couple of years in advance on an Excel spreadsheet, so I can see how much much money I have available for investing into bitcoin on a monthly basis.  Second, when I first got into bitcoin in late 2013, I had given myself a 6 month budget that was a certain amount of money, and I divided that amount by 26 in order to give myself a weekly allowance.  Each week I tried to strategize buying on dips, but if I had not spent the whole amount of my allowance by the end of the week, then I would just buy at whatever price just to make sure that I spent that allowance amount for the week.

Notes in Excel spreadsheets are important, when I start investing in bitcoin I always record it there, for example I bought bitcoin at a price of $24,655 on Sunday so I never go through this because it is important to know the money invested every month and can accumulate the average value of his purchases to make it easier.
But the record is still lacking in 1 year but I still keep it.

For sure, Excel can be used in very powerful ways to keep track and also to attempt to project various future scenarios including attempting to plan various strategies that might work decently well and to account for various alternative scenarios and to figure out if the strategy might need to be tweaked at certain time points if it can be determined that one scenario direction might be playing out versus another scenario direction.. and you can surely also get something directionally correct, but then not really be sure about the time frame for it to play out or the magnitude in which it might play out within certain time parameters that you have highlighted for yourself.

I have a thread in which I had gone over various kinds of timeline scenarios, and of course, my frameworks do not comprehend all possibilities, but it fleshes out some of the techniques that I attempt to employ and shows some of my ways of thinking about long term investing in bitcoin.

I believe that I have learned NOT to panic as easily as I had previously, and I believe that I have been fairly successful in that direction, but still there can be circumstances in which BTC price performance (including various extremes) can end up testing your psychology and even realizing that if you reassess the situation and change some of your planned strategies, then you will feel a lot better...  For example, this last time around, after BTC price dropped below $35k in early May-ish, it seems that I had to readjust my plans at leas 5-6 times, and usually (in recent times) I do not tend to change my plans very frequently, but BTC prices ended up going down way further beyond extremes points that many of us expected (including yours truly). 

For this I am also the same when I buy high suddenly the price drops I don't feel panic anymore I tend to be more persistent and don't see the market or any news but I always see history that bitcoin can rise again.
Psychologically it is important for adjustment to realize that we can get through when the period of increase comes, here I only see when the price goes down that I return to the market again.

For sure there are a variety of ways to attempt to play the BTC price moves, even when they go against your expectations, which could merely be having some extra cash available to buy more, of if you have run out of cash then maybe to wait out the correction period as you suggested, and surely some of us who have some cashflow might still be able to benefit from BTC price corrections that go beyond our expectations because maybe ever two weeks or so we are able to get more money and be able to buy more BTC with a portion of our pay that we may have allocated for such buying of BTC purposes.

[ajiz138]

So, even if you were to take portfolios of people who are trying to time the price versus those who DCA, you are likely going to get better performance with the DCA.. and even if you believe that you can beat a regular DCA approach, you have to account for your time too.. and in that regard, sure you might consider that it is fun to practice figuring out the BTC price movement in order to time the dips, if any, but you can still play around with attempting to buy the dips while DCAing at the same time... You would just not be using your whole budget for buying dips, merely a fraction of your budget would be used for buying dips.. and you can determine how much of a fraction you would like that to be - even if you appreciate that maybe it is better to not be wasting too much of your time and just make yourself buy regularly. .and maybe hold back on over stragetizing and/or over thinking the matter..

Actually I want to balanced it like that not all money has to buy dips but with DCA at the same time I want to do that and do it full time so that my expenses are balanced by determining two directions of concurrent investment between dips and DCA.
Maybe I should reset how this can be run at the same time because I want both to run maybe the expenses can be tried to be as regular as possible.

Well, if we consider that you could have employed a DCA strategy throughout that time, and even invested a relatively small amount of $10 per week for the past 8 years which would have added up to about $4,180 invested, and would have gotten you nearly 4 BTC, and of course, if you had been able to take a bit more of an aggressive stance, then you could have invested 10x that amount at $100 per week and you would have invested $41,800 and would have gotten about 40 BTC during that same time.  So DCA can be very powerful, even with relatively modest amounts invested on an ongoing and regular basis.

The calculation is quite reasonable for me because after I tried it with the calculator there is indeed a good thing for this DCA, as you suggest $10 as a small value and added with an aggressive attitude with an additional 5x or 10x additional capital every week then the amount will be big for a certain period, then with this DCA for a few years I will get a few more BTC, wow this is really what I want, but everything of course takes struggle right?
If DCA is in the way by me then I have to be strong.

I have a thread

I will study this thread, and read in more detail, it is very interesting for me to read and explore the outline of bitcoin investment.

For sure, Excel can be used in very powerful ways to keep track and also to attempt to project various future scenarios including attempting to plan various strategies that might work decently well and to account for various alternative scenarios and to figure out if the strategy might need to be tweaked at certain time points if it can be determined that one scenario direction might be playing out versus another scenario direction.. and you can surely also get something directionally correct, but then not really be sure about the time frame for it to play out or the magnitude in which it might play out within certain time parameters that you have highlighted for yourself.

To make it easier for me if I project in an Excel Spreadsheet so anything I track in the future is pretty straightforward, so these notes are important for whatever scenario I run.
If there is no Excel, I may not know the results and expenses and income so far, so I will also definitely get a definite direction in every purchase of his records.
Not only I may many people take notes in Excel.

[Jeger.Kiting]

Hello everyone, today i want to tell you about my crypto-depression.
So in 2010 i was working in IT company and my friend from work told me about bitcoin mining.
Next day after this information i register on this forum and start mining coins, everything going perfect but bitcoin price was really low and unstable.
I was investing everything in gpu. Couple times i lost my fund's on scam-exchange but i still had a lot of "mining power".
In 2015 i quited my job and invest my whole savings in bitcoin, in that time i had more than 15 bitcoin's and gpu worth 20k$.
And after 2 or 3 week's everything fucked up, in same time i lost my job and my wife get sicked.
In Nov 2015 i selled everything but still i had -$$$$ to pay, so you probably asking why i made this post?

Now after 6 years i have biggest depression ever, if i only burrow money from somewhere 5 years ago and didnt sell my miners...

I have feelings that i lost my biggest life chance to get really rich and i just want to forget about crypto and work in normal work but it is impossible.
It's hurt much more if you can see that your old crypto-friend's get cars and houses from crypto profit, i wonder if someone have some feeling's as me.

There are so many people like you out there, because in the past, searching for Bitcoins was very easy and there were many free sites to get Bitcoins. many people think that Bitcoin does not have a good future and will not develop, therefore many people throw away Bitcoin by selling it or buying an item using Bitcoin. So the point is don't be too sorry, just think of this as a very valuable lesson and experience to be taught to the next generation so that they can appreciate an item or anything so that it is not wasted and must be protected, who knows in the future it will become more valuable.

[JayJuanGee]

So, even if you were to take portfolios of people who are trying to time the price versus those who DCA, you are likely going to get better performance with the DCA.. and even if you believe that you can beat a regular DCA approach, you have to account for your time too.. and in that regard, sure you might consider that it is fun to practice figuring out the BTC price movement in order to time the dips, if any, but you can still play around with attempting to buy the dips while DCAing at the same time... You would just not be using your whole budget for buying dips, merely a fraction of your budget would be used for buying dips.. and you can determine how much of a fraction you would like that to be - even if you appreciate that maybe it is better to not be wasting too much of your time and just make yourself buy regularly. .and maybe hold back on over stragetizing and/or over thinking the matter..

Actually I want to balanced it like that not all money has to buy dips but with DCA at the same time I want to do that and do it full time so that my expenses are balanced by determining two directions of concurrent investment between dips and DCA.
Maybe I should reset how this can be run at the same time because I want both to run maybe the expenses can be tried to be as regular as possible.

Historically, I have attempted to use some kind of an example of a budget that would use round numbers.  Of course, if you are not brand new to bitcoin, then the example will NOT apply exactly in the same way, but you can still get the idea from it.  

So let's say that Hypothetical 1 (bitcoin newbie) wants to project his/her BTC buying budget over 6 months, so s/he projects his spare cash and how much cash that s/he has coming in, and s/he finds that s/he has $3k in cash available and has about $500 per month coming in, so the total available for the 6 months is $6k.  If the person is a newbie, s/he may well want to divide the $6k into three parts.  The first part $2k is to buy BTC right way, and the remainder of the $4k would be divided between DCA and buying on dips.  The DCA portion is $2k, so it is divided by 26, and it would amount to about $77 per week, and the strategizing for the remainder portion ($2k in this example) might have to do with trying to figure out how far down on that you want to structure buy orders  what kinds of increments and how much per increment.  If you were to buy $200 per increment, then you could create 10 buy orders - Maybe  $500 apart, between $19,500 ish and $14,500-ish.  Of course, you can choose whatever increments that you want if you want the buy orders to go down to a lower price or if you want to spend your whole stash by $18k because you believe that the BTC price is not going to go lower than that.

Since you established your expected budget, you can also have a system for dealing with any new money that might come in during that six months that was not expected, and you can divide any such new money in terms of buying on dips, lump sum buying or plugging it into your DCA amounts.

Well, if we consider that you could have employed a DCA strategy throughout that time, and even invested a relatively small amount of $10 per week for the past 8 years which would have added up to about $4,180 invested, and would have gotten you nearly 4 BTC, and of course, if you had been able to take a bit more of an aggressive stance, then you could have invested 10x that amount at $100 per week and you would have invested $41,800 and would have gotten about 40 BTC during that same time.  So DCA can be very powerful, even with relatively modest amounts invested on an ongoing and regular basis.

The calculation is quite reasonable for me because after I tried it with the calculator there is indeed a good thing for this DCA, as you suggest $10 as a small value and added with an aggressive attitude with an additional 5x or 10x additional capital every week then the amount will be big for a certain period, then with this DCA for a few years I will get a few more BTC, wow this is really what I want, but everything of course takes struggle right?
If DCA is in the way by me then I have to be strong.

Going through the whole process is not necessarily easy, and it sometimes can feel as if you are not making any progress.. and for sure there are no guarantees that you are going to come out ahead in the long term - even though bitcoin still seems to be amongst the best of asymmetric upside bets that is available to normies to be able to invest whatever amount of value is reasonable and prudent (and still sufficiently aggressive for your own circumstances).  You do not want to end up in a position in which you overly spend your dollars and then you have an emergency and you have to cash out some or all of your BTC at a time that is anything other than your complete choosing, and that is perhaps part of the reason that you should want to set a sufficiently long timeline into the future  such as 4-10 years or more and just keep building through that whole time with a kind of potential confidence that you are making a reasonable investment.. . and sure at the same time you can continue to study bitcoin and monitor bitcoin and attempt to figure out if its investment thesis is getting undermined during that time or not.  We have frequently seen bitcoin have negative price performance, while at the same time bitcoin's investment thesis is continuing to get stronger...even though at the same time there are a lot of negative comments about it and whining and all kinds of bullshit to attempt to trick the BTC accumulators out of their coins and out of their long term strategies to accumulate BTC with prudent and personally tailored approach.

So you should not be investing $100 per week if it may well be much safer for you to do $10 per week or maybe even some amount in the middle.. such as $30 or $65 or $77.. you gotta find an amount that is not going to overly stress you but at the same time give you enough of a regular purchasing amount that you feel that you are making progress and you are not being too whimpy in your approach in that you will feel regretful about it later.

I am not saying it is easy to figure it out, and I am not saying that it is easy to ongoingly tweak without overly thinking the matter, but it is also likely that the longer that you practice, even with smaller amounts, you will better get to know the proper balance amount and you can increase the amounts as you get more and more used to making the various adjustments in your budget, whether it is cash coming in or monitoring your regular expenses.

I have a thread

I will study this thread, and read in more detail, it is very interesting for me to read and explore the outline of bitcoin investment.

Yes.. you can post questions, comments or other input in that thread too.  I sometimes get a bit wordy in my responses, and then sometimes I am working on some other ideas too... or maybe some of the BTC price predictions that are within that thread are older so they might not be exactly correct for now, but such price prediction outlines were made at certain times and I attempt to assign probabilities that are based on what is going on in bitcoin at the time that I made the posts.. so for example, if I am talking about BTC price dynamics I might ONLY focus on one price direction at a time, depending on what is happening.. even though for sure, my personal BTC portfolio (and perhaps other investments) is always attempting to be structured to prepare for either price direction in regards to my main focuses on the BTC/USD pair... and even extreme price movements that might happen in BTC.. which surely we do get those extreme price movements in Bitcoin on a seemingly regular basis (it is almost one of the things in bitcoin most guaranteed.. volatility .. but not always clear about which direction or how far in one price direction or another).

For sure, Excel can be used in very powerful ways to keep track and also to attempt to project various future scenarios including attempting to plan various strategies that might work decently well and to account for various alternative scenarios and to figure out if the strategy might need to be tweaked at certain time points if it can be determined that one scenario direction might be playing out versus another scenario direction.. and you can surely also get something directionally correct, but then not really be sure about the time frame for it to play out or the magnitude in which it might play out within certain time parameters that you have highlighted for yourself.

To make it easier for me if I project in an Excel Spreadsheet so anything I track in the future is pretty straightforward, so these notes are important for whatever scenario I run.
If there is no Excel, I may not know the results and expenses and income so far, so I will also definitely get a definite direction in every purchase of his records.
Not only I may many people take notes in Excel.

You can self teach yourself to design whatever price projections that you like, and Excel can be very powerful for more complex projections and also can be used for more basic projections too.. so yeah, you can keep older copies as well, or even link your various work sheets, too.