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Author Topic: How much can you predict this sh*t?! Or is it pure gamble?  (Read 601 times)
9thsky
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May 08, 2021, 07:06:33 PM
 #1

From 50/50 (it could swing either way and you can have zero knowledge on which way it'll swing), to %1-100 being able to know before hand, how much can you know?

What causes prices to go up? What causes them to go down? Obviously, no one knows for certain when it would happened, but has there been a consistent "pattern" lately? When prices have gone down, have you known to a reasonable degree than they would bounce back up? How?
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May 08, 2021, 07:16:55 PM
 #2

Technical analysis based on lot of indicators may give an idea about the future price movements but there is no one can predict it accurately if they did it then they are just lucky though. Trading is purely speculation so its not completely a gamble but kind of thing so you need luck and skills to be successful here.

Also, make use of the news sources and whale indicators.

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May 08, 2021, 07:24:20 PM
 #3

What causes prices to go up? What causes them to go down?
Basically, market forces of demand and supply; the more the demand against supply the higher the value and the more the supply against demand the lower the value. There are lots of other factors which affects demand and supply, such as news updates (positive or negative), market sentiment etc.

When prices have gone down, have you known to a reasonable degree than they would bounce back up? How?
In the short term it is much more difficult to predict, especially if you have to use technical analysis, but using fundamental analysis, one can have a rough idea of the (expected) value of a coin and know when it's underpriced which would indicate a price rebound in the future.





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May 08, 2021, 07:25:46 PM
 #4

Depends entirely on what coin we are discussing here. It is pretty clear that everything has reason to go down and up! Most of the crypto is driven by public investments and institutional news around us. Let us say on one fine day MtGox publishes they are going to bu 250 more bitcoins, then boom, the market goes crazy high and people start doing FOMO investments so that they dont loose the good entry point. On the other hand it could be reverse news of this from an institutional book maker.

We have seen prices going down from China blackout, to bans in Indian market to Alon Crypto city scams. This is just non ending thing and you do have to keep an eye on everything.

In fact crypto market is very volatile. One tweet can change the realm of coin's universe.  Wink

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May 08, 2021, 08:10:32 PM
 #5

From 50/50 (it could swing either way and you can have zero knowledge on which way it'll swing), to %1-100 being able to know before hand, how much can you know?

What causes prices to go up? What causes them to go down? Obviously, no one knows for certain when it would happened, but has there been a consistent "pattern" lately? When prices have gone down, have you known to a reasonable degree than they would bounce back up? How?
The thing with patterns is that even if they exist sooner or later someone is going to figure out the existence of such pattern and will begin to take advantage of it, and when enough people do this then the profitability of such system goes down to the point it does not work anymore.

This is what makes the markets so difficult, you cannot just create a strategy and think that strategy is going to work forever, this means that becoming a trader is a process and not a goal and studying the markets is something that you will need to keep doing for the rest of your trading days if you want to obtain profits, newbies never get this which is why even if they enjoy some early success they end up eventually losing it all when their strategy does not work anymore.
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May 09, 2021, 04:13:13 AM
 #6

The problem here is you actually trying to predict price movements. If someone could with good accuracy, then gawd damn he/she must be one of the richest people now. Traders just use charts to check out the odds of prices going up/down(by really tight percentages), but not necessarily predict them.

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May 09, 2021, 08:55:12 AM
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 #7

You forgot to mention what "this" is? Is it bitcoin, some particular altcoin you have in mind, altcoins in general or tokens? They each are different.

Generally speaking you can't predict altcoin movements because their movements are always based on pump and dumps and as manipulations go, a P&D is not predictable ever.

But movements of a particular altcoin or token can be predicted at certain times. For example we all know that tokens that are released are going to be dumped after release as soon as the team holding the majority of it gains access to idiots who are willing to pay money for the vaporware. Or an altcoin that is pumped out of nowhere and has run out of steam is going to get dumped soon.
Same with their pumps, there are certain signs to the shitcoin pumpers. For example they start hyping that shitcoin with some irrelevant news such as its having, release of some new software version, an arbitrary fork, an airdrop... it is also visible on the charts with the increase in volume, obviously increase in price and the buy walls placed by pumpers to artificially push the price up.

If you are looking at bitcoin market it is a different story from above. That is more predictable because the market movements are mostly logical and can be analyzed if you know technical and fundamental analysis. You'll also need some experience to know what makes the market move and what is just there to fool weak hands.
By knowing bitcoin moves you could also predict altcoin moves since they always get dumped no matter what direction bitcoin is going as long as it is going in some direction. In other words 20% rise or 20% fall in bitcoin causes the same dump in altcoins.

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May 09, 2021, 09:26:49 AM
 #8


the trend could be predicted but the price will not exactly be predicted. it's a pure gamble when suddenly a coin would just rankup without notice. but it's the same situation when a coin is pumping up despite the chart indicating that it can't sustain the price. you could only say it's manipulated but then it's still profitable to not sell if you haven't done it yet.

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May 09, 2021, 10:05:22 AM
 #9

What causes prices to go up? What causes them to go down?
Basically, market forces of demand and supply; the more the demand against supply the higher the value and the more the supply against demand the lower the value. There are lots of other factors which affects demand and supply, such as news updates (positive or negative), market sentiment etc.

I also agree with you that good and bad news have a lot of influence but in some cases it often depends on luck. Even if the market movement is very good predict may not be profitable for a long time, but all in all you have to make a decision on how much risk you are willing to take. all of the above have tried to give you an idea but in the case of trading with the good and bad news indicators are much more important.



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May 09, 2021, 10:40:45 AM
 #10

From 50/50 (it could swing either way and you can have zero knowledge on which way it'll swing), to %1-100 being able to know before hand, how much can you know?
(.....)
It seems you are having a hard time trading these days.

Yes, it tough to trades when it's choppy. It's difficult to trade with these kinds of price actions, especially sideways, and Bitcon does sideways too.

Trading is a gamble when you enter on a trade without any basis, like only random. Technical analysis is your friend, candle patterns, momentum indicators, moving averages, supports, and resistances, etc. will help you slightly to spot if price go up or down.





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May 09, 2021, 12:23:29 PM
 #11

What causes prices to go up? What causes them to go down? Obviously, no one knows for certain when it would happened, but has there been a consistent "pattern" lately? When prices have gone down, have you known to a reasonable degree than they would bounce back up? How?

Predict or pure gamble? I think it depends on the person who is doing trading. If he is using technical analysis learned from youtube tutorials or from a friend, I think it is more on predicting how the market and price charts will go. But if we say gambling, we do not do analysis or we do not look on price charts when we decide to buy a coin.
Causes of prices? I am not good at this actually but recently I noticed that whales or big time investors makes the price hype like Elon musk. Another is the demand and supply of a coin. Like on our Economics subject, if demands becomes higher than the supply the price rise.

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May 09, 2021, 02:39:26 PM
 #12

Well, predictions here at least have some form of basis, though their movement depending on that basis is actually a hit or miss. Basis' can still be gathered and studied, assumptions can be made that has actual backing and reasoning, but the movement of charts would still end up being 50/50 no matter what. It's predictable, yes, with the right basis and factors, but it can also be said to be a complete gamble since the "right" factors and basis is rather unknown to you, not to mention that the market basis is quite vague at times plus, add that to its high volatility.

Plus, if it was that easy to predict the market, everyone would be rich ngl.

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Oceat
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May 09, 2021, 03:20:55 PM
 #13

From 50/50 (it could swing either way and you can have zero knowledge on which way it'll swing), to %1-100 being able to know before hand, how much can you know?

What causes prices to go up? What causes them to go down? Obviously, no one knows for certain when it would happened, but has there been a consistent "pattern" lately? When prices have gone down, have you known to a reasonable degree than they would bounce back up? How?
What coin are we talking about here?

If you want to know what causes the price to go up, there are plenty of reasons why it goes like that especially this bull season there's a lot of factors you can think of but it doesn't mean it won't go down. So just like what you said, it could be a 50/50 chance it would go up or down because this is due to some reasons and one of the reason is the movement of the traders plus the news it could affect almost everything.

Altcoins and Bitcoin may move on their own depending on what the news brings and the traders movement. It may look like a gamble but there are plenty of ways to predict where the price would headed.

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May 09, 2021, 03:45:00 PM
 #14

What causes prices to go up? What causes them to go down? Obviously, no one knows for certain when it would happened, but has there been a consistent "pattern" lately? When prices have gone down, have you known to a reasonable degree than they would bounce back up? How?
If there is one trader who knows to predict this stuff or the market price movement accurately, it might be that trader is the richest man in the crypto space.  The crypto market price isn't predictable or unpredictable, there's no way to know the future result even though people trying to have strategies on it (FA or FA analysis).  By the way, I'd to tell you that the price will go down if it goes down, there's no infinite Bitcoin always on the high price, and also know that you can't control its movement.

You need more practice in trading and meanwhile knowing that trading is a sort of gambling.





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May 09, 2021, 03:59:08 PM
 #15

Well, predictions here at least have some form of basis, though their movement depending on that basis is actually a hit or miss. Basis' can still be gathered and studied, assumptions can be made that has actual backing and reasoning, but the movement of charts would still end up being 50/50 no matter what. It's predictable, yes, with the right basis and factors, but it can also be said to be a complete gamble since the "right" factors and basis is rather unknown to you, not to mention that the market basis is quite vague at times plus, add that to its high volatility.

Plus, if it was that easy to predict the market, everyone would be rich ngl.
With so many people who lose, I think there are not a few people who consider it a gamble, but if we can see it from a business perspective, then I don't think this is the case. of course everything in trading is an opportunity and we have to make that opportunity to make a profit. but many people are greedy here.

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May 09, 2021, 04:18:15 PM
 #16

What I know for many people who know when it goes up and down is with analysis techniques and several indicators and with how much news happens this can also lead to a reference where prices can go up and down but what I know they look at the chart and analyze it there. not necessarily accurate.
Actually there is a lot that has to be combined, usually it can happen when one of them doesn't enter, so that's where we have to understand yet in this matter, and well this is actually shitcoin going like gambling no one knows even now only news can bring their direction.

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May 09, 2021, 06:19:39 PM
 #17

Trend is your friend. Just follow this instruction and you will never be lost.

At the moment, cryptocurrency is the trend of the world so that making money with it is simple. Just put your money in a good project as well as well manage your fund well and you will definitely make a great income here. This "trend pattern" has a high correct percentage so don't doubt it

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May 09, 2021, 06:52:31 PM
 #18

Trend is your friend. Just follow this instruction and you will never be lost.

At the moment, cryptocurrency is the trend of the world so that making money with it is simple. Just put your money in a good project as well as well manage your fund well and you will definitely make a great income here. This "trend pattern" has a high correct percentage so don't doubt it
I can tell you that you are true. I tried to do some trading (usually I do holding) and my friend did much better with his feel and hyped coins. I was doing analysis and he did much better over the last month.

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May 09, 2021, 07:10:53 PM
 #19

From 50/50 (it could swing either way and you can have zero knowledge on which way it'll swing), to %1-100 being able to know before hand, how much can you know?

What causes prices to go up? What causes them to go down? Obviously, no one knows for certain when it would happened, but has there been a consistent "pattern" lately? When prices have gone down, have you known to a reasonable degree than they would bounce back up? How?
I rely solely on technical analysis, especially in a hectic and volatile market. So, from my four years of trading experience, I can say that with a greater degree of probability it is possible to predict a maximum of 3-5 candlesticks. This is what I do. I'll take a small profit from the movement and sleep well.

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May 09, 2021, 07:47:18 PM
 #20

~
It is simply supply and demand, OP.
Just like what pooya87 said, what particular coin are you pointing at?
Bitcoin is unstable and you should know that.

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