How often does a solo miner solve a block

[lowbander801]

I know its a long shot, but I was curious how often a solo miner solves a block?  Probably not a topic that would freely come up by the person solving it for anonymous purposes.

I was just doing some quick math and the odds are way up there-

For example, assume there are 170,000,000 TH/s out there right now.  If you had 5 newpac usb sticks overclocked to 100GH/s, that would be .5 TH/s.  Take the 170m and divide by the .5 and that is 340,000,000 blocks before you theoretically would ever solve one.   Divide that by 144 per day and we are talking 2.3 million days or ~6500 years.

Having said that, you have the same odds as anyone else, you could solve a block on the first try, or get 10 in a row, or never.

It is said that the large pools such as slushpool represent about 15% of all bitcoins mined per pool.  But how often do you think a solo miner solves a block on their own?  Any good stories or discussions on the topic?

1 BTC per month during (this/next) difficulty?
needs 5.71 PH/s - 0.175219 - 4.80 PH/s









my stolen account lowbander80 was legentary
mining since 2013
1JgddX4AWtLxn9G3hMFzR99CVcZk2U66mQ

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[The Sceptical Chymist]

but a home user with USB sticks in his pc.. or a couple asics in their basement working alone. forget it

I've watched some pretty recent videos on Youtube about USB stick mining, and even if you're mining in a pool with a bunch of Moonlanders, you're still going to earn next to nothing.  The video makers usually say that the USB devices "are great for learning about mining" but the only thing I think they're good for is learning how to lose money.

It's been said here many times: mining bitcoin solo is like playing the lottery, though I think the odds of discovering a block are even less than winning Lotto.  You can try it of course, but you're basically just wasting your time and electricity.  

idk but my plan was to build a USB mining rig with a couple of super old bitcoin block erupters (for luck/look, not performance lmfao) and a handful of OC'd newpacs and point em to ckpool as a "lotto miner" / art piece.

no idea how to set that up, i never really was a lotto player but idk i feel like this would be fun just to tinker around. and it does help decentralize the network lol

They look super cool, but if you think about that setup with the logical part of your brain (and not the gambling one), you'll realize it's not worth it to do.  You'll get sick of getting nothing every day, just like all the other people who've tried it and ended up selling those block eruptors and Moonlanders on eBay.

It would be much more rational to mine an altcoin with a GPU or even a CPU and then sell the proceeds for bitcoin.

[notasimp]

As the OP said, it's all random luck.
Remember, no matter what the size of your farm, only 1 machine in the world finds a block. We can only hope that it is one of ours.

I've been on KanoPool since late 2014 and to-date have found 10 blocks for the pool. The last one (block #608428) was found on 2019‑12‑16 by one of my A841's in a 60THs cluster, one before that (#570025) found on 2019‑04‑03 by a M10 and another (#566019) found on 2019‑03‑07 by a 8-9THs R4. That same R4 also found a block (#543875) on 2018‑10‑01.

Point is that individual miners CAN and DO find blocks. Yes I would have LOVED to have hit those running solo but knowing how the Fates can work I prefer to think it would not have happened...

I skimmed the rest of the thread but didn't see anyone reply asking what I wanted to ask, so I'll go ahead and ask even though it's been six weeks since you posted this.

How does your total income at pools to date compare with what you would've earned had you mined these blocks solo?

[NotFuzzyWarm]

Can't say I've ever bothered to do the math, mainly depends on how many coins the reward was back then. Currently is 6.25BTC+fees, back then might have been 12.5BTC+fees. Do remember that I've been running a total of several hundred THs. Those miners that found blocks were part of that farm.

I CAN say that running solo that long with no income from others in the pool finding blocks would have been - very expensive. I may be patient but not that much.

[philipma1957]

As the OP said, it's all random luck.
Remember, no matter what the size of your farm, only 1 machine in the world finds a block. We can only hope that it is one of ours.

I've been on KanoPool since late 2014 and to-date have found 10 blocks for the pool. The last one (block #608428) was found on 2019‑12‑16 by one of my A841's in a 60THs cluster, one before that (#570025) found on 2019‑04‑03 by a M10 and another (#566019) found on 2019‑03‑07 by a 8-9THs R4. That same R4 also found a block (#543875) on 2018‑10‑01.

Point is that individual miners CAN and DO find blocks. Yes I would have LOVED to have hit those running solo but knowing how the Fates can work I prefer to think it would not have happened...

I skimmed the rest of the thread but didn't see anyone reply asking what I wanted to ask, so I'll go ahead and ask even though it's been six weeks since you posted this.

How does your total income at pools to date compare with what you would've earned had you mined these blocks solo?

I have 1200th.

assuming flat difficulty which is not true over a long time

I make
0.007 per day
0.070 in ten days
0.700 in 100 days
7.000 in 1000 days

so a block in three years would be “normal”

a block in three months would be very lucky.
a block in 30 years would be very unlucky.

All on the assumption of flat difficulty.

which has not lasted more than a year or so. since mining began.

I am fairly certain no 2 years have passed without diff rising .

I cant mine 1200th for more than 100 days with no income from it.

[kano]

...
assuming flat difficulty which is not true over a long time after two weeks
...

fixed that for you ...

[notasimp]

As the OP said, it's all random luck.
Remember, no matter what the size of your farm, only 1 machine in the world finds a block. We can only hope that it is one of ours.

I've been on KanoPool since late 2014 and to-date have found 10 blocks for the pool. The last one (block #608428) was found on 2019‑12‑16 by one of my A841's in a 60THs cluster, one before that (#570025) found on 2019‑04‑03 by a M10 and another (#566019) found on 2019‑03‑07 by a 8-9THs R4. That same R4 also found a block (#543875) on 2018‑10‑01.

Point is that individual miners CAN and DO find blocks. Yes I would have LOVED to have hit those running solo but knowing how the Fates can work I prefer to think it would not have happened...

I skimmed the rest of the thread but didn't see anyone reply asking what I wanted to ask, so I'll go ahead and ask even though it's been six weeks since you posted this.

How does your total income at pools to date compare with what you would've earned had you mined these blocks solo?

I have 1200th.

assuming flat difficulty which is not true over a long time

I make
0.007 per day
0.070 in ten days
0.700 in 100 days
7.000 in 1000 days

so a block in three years would be “normal”

a block in three months would be very lucky.
a block in 30 years would be very unlucky.

All on the assumption of flat difficulty.

which has not lasted more than a year or so. since mining began.

I am fairly certain no 2 years have passed without diff rising .

I cant mine 1200th for more than 100 days with no income from it.

That makes things a bit easier to visualize, thanks. If you don't mind me asking... how much DOES it cost you to mine 1200TH? Roughly.

[Philipma1957cellphone]

As the OP said, it's all random luck.
Remember, no matter what the size of your farm, only 1 machine in the world finds a block. We can only hope that it is one of ours.

I've been on KanoPool since late 2014 and to-date have found 10 blocks for the pool. The last one (block #608428) was found on 2019‑12‑16 by one of my A841's in a 60THs cluster, one before that (#570025) found on 2019‑04‑03 by a M10 and another (#566019) found on 2019‑03‑07 by a 8-9THs R4. That same R4 also found a block (#543875) on 2018‑10‑01.

Point is that individual miners CAN and DO find blocks. Yes I would have LOVED to have hit those running solo but knowing how the Fates can work I prefer to think it would not have happened...

I skimmed the rest of the thread but didn't see anyone reply asking what I wanted to ask, so I'll go ahead and ask even though it's been six weeks since you posted this.

How does your total income at pools to date compare with what you would've earned had you mined these blocks solo?

I have 1200th.

assuming flat difficulty which is not true over a long time

I make
0.007 per day
0.070 in ten days
0.700 in 100 days
7.000 in 1000 days

so a block in three years would be “normal”

a block in three months would be very lucky.
a block in 30 years would be very unlucky.

All on the assumption of flat difficulty.

which has not lasted more than a year or so. since mining began.

I am fairly certain no 2 years have passed without diff rising .

I cant mine 1200th for more than 100 days with no income from it.

That makes things a bit easier to visualize, thanks. If you don't mind me asking... how much DOES it cost you to mine 1200TH? Roughly.

My deal is 1/2 the coins.

So when price and profit is low I get half the coins. Good for me

And when price + profit is high I get half the coins. Good for the warehouse owner.

[notasimp]

- snip -

That makes things a bit easier to visualize, thanks. If you don't mind me asking... how much DOES it cost you to mine 1200TH? Roughly.

My deal is 1/2 the coins.

So when price and profit is low I get half the coins. Good for me

And when price + profit is high I get half the coins. Good for the warehouse owner.

So you own the hardware and the warehouse owner gives you space and power in exchange for half the gross profit?

[philipma1957]

- snip -

That makes things a bit easier to visualize, thanks. If you don't mind me asking... how much DOES it cost you to mine 1200TH? Roughly.

My deal is 1/2 the coins.

So when price and profit is low I get half the coins. Good for me

And when price + profit is high I get half the coins. Good for the warehouse owner.

So you own the hardware and the warehouse owner gives you space and power in exchange for half the gross profit?

Yes.  He has a complex with 7 large buildings. He made a deal for multiple megawatts for five year.

He then lost an icecream company that burned lots of power for the freezers.

This left him with an excess amount of paid for power.

So the deal works for him and for us.