Correlation between circulating supply, total supply , project and price

[elziw]

Hello,

I have been analyzing successful or promising projects recently and I would like to share with you my thoughts and get your opinion.

Let's take for example some successful or promising projects, here I am excluding bitcoin simply because its a coin that outstand all other coins and has its own logic and parameters.

I am taking for example :

Link : Max supply   1B ATH : 43 euro
ADA : Max supply 45B : 2 euro
ETH : Circulating supply : 116.0M ATH:3607 euro (no max supply)
SOLANA  Max supply 488.6M ATH 47 euro

Now when analyzing new projects if we think that the project is good and promising could we estimate the ATH of that project when it matures by assigning it to one of theses intervals, I mean if this project has a max supply of 45B which is huge could we says that we estimate its ATH to be between 2 and 5  like ADA? In the other hand it it has only 1B max supply could we predict its ATH to be around 43 euros like Link? Does this make sense as an analysis? Am I missing some parameters? 
Matic is ~ 1/4 ADA's max supply = 1B but it did hit already 2.14 euros ATH!! is this saying that my analysis is wrong or is it because ADA is still not delivering? 

[1714985819]

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[1714985819]

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[Hydrogen]

I think the main indicator of altcoin value mirrors its value to people. The options and opportunities it provides. The problems it solves. Inflationary vs deflationary assets and currencies. Circulating supply. And similar facets which separate inflation protected assets from ones that are susceptible to hyperinflation and devaluation. These variables are certainly priced in. But emphasis and price projections based on these price points is discouraged. For the same reasons bitcoin being an inflation protected asset is seldom acknowledged. Even in the face of ever increasing fiat printing.

Aside from the fundamental market mechanics. Circumstances revolving around politics and world affairs definitely matter. There is a human condition element working in conjunction with metrics and statistics to determine how much an asset is worth. We can easily solve for the statistical elements. Identifying narratives and talking points which also factor into price valuation, is a little more difficult. And as relevant.

[Tytanowy Janusz]

Now when analyzing new projects if we think that the project is good and promising could we estimate the ATH of that project when it matures by assigning it to one of theses intervals, I mean if this project has a max supply of 45B which is huge could we says that we estimate its ATH to be between 2 and 5  like ADA? In the other hand it it has only 1B max supply could we predict its ATH to be around 43 euros like Link? Does this make sense as an analysis? Am I missing some parameters?  

This is correct as far as this asset will be as popular as the one that you took as parameter and will take part in alt seazon as strong as the one we have seen recently - marketcap of all altcoins (total market capitalization excluding bitcoin) did x20 in last year. Shiba and all meme coins proved that fundamental does not matter at the top of mania. And the top of mania is the moment when we see ATH prices being reached - prices that you refer to.

You are also refering to ADA ... ADA is a phenomenon on a global scale - shouldn't be used as indicator. They are close to devlivering something that they call huge ... for last 4 years. When I was researching ADA in 2017 It was promising project. It is promising project in 2021 ... nothing changed except that 4 years have passet and still no one is using ADA because of now working product. And that's enough to be evaluated at 47 billion $!

[elziw]

I think the main indicator of altcoin value mirrors its value to people. The options and opportunities it provides. The problems it solves. Inflationary vs deflationary assets and currencies. Circulating supply. And similar facets which separate inflation protected assets from ones that are susceptible to hyperinflation and devaluation. These variables are certainly priced in. But emphasis and price projections based on these price points is discouraged. For the same reasons bitcoin being an inflation protected asset is seldom acknowledged. Even in the face of ever increasing fiat printing.

Aside from the fundamental market mechanics. Circumstances revolving around politics and world affairs definitely matter. There is a human condition element working in conjunction with metrics and statistics to determine how much an asset is worth. We can easily solve for the statistical elements. Identifying narratives and talking points which also factor into price valuation, is a little more difficult. And as relevant.

I do agree with you indeed that this calculation reflects only one side of the price prediction but at least it could give me an indication of an expected return. I don't see crypto as a gambling game where I throw my money randomly on some coins and wait for the hype but maybe I am wrong.

[desmodiAN]

Now when analyzing new projects if we think that the project is good and promising could we estimate the ATH of that project when it matures by assigning it to one of theses intervals, I mean if this project has a max supply of 45B which is huge could we says that we estimate its ATH to be between 2 and 5  like ADA?

Why should this analysis work? The next good new projects needs to convice customers/traders. Not only that it is good, but better than whats at the market.
Many good projects with years of dev already out there. So my take is: Most new projects wont make it to the top10 of coins.
It only happens if old projects fail to deliver.

[Tytanowy Janusz]

Why should this analysis work?

Because investors likes to compare projects. Especially if they have similar tech. Its not regular stock where you can compare P/E or price to book value.

Most new projects wont make it to the top10 of coins.

There are 20k projects and only 10 projects are in top 10 so yea. Most wont be there XD And its not about tech YET. Its about hype.

[BrewMaster]

supply should not even be in the top 10 things you look at. price is a representation of value and value is achieved only through utility which is the only thing that matters in a cryptocurrency. you have to see if that project is actually providing any utility or is it just fake to fool the newbies into buying it.

with that said, in altcoin market all bets are off. there is no rule about what coin can or should grow. we see the worst coins go to the top of the list and stay there. coins with huge supplies and massive premines. coins that are centralized, buggy, scam,...
this proves that "analyzing" an altcoin is so much more complicated than just looking at its supply. you have to see who is behind it and how much experience they have in pumping it.

[elziw]

supply should not even be in the top 10 things you look at. price is a representation of value and value is achieved only through utility which is the only thing that matters in a cryptocurrency. you have to see if that project is actually providing any utility or is it just fake to fool the newbies into buying it.

with that said, in altcoin market all bets are off. there is no rule about what coin can or should grow. we see the worst coins go to the top of the list and stay there. coins with huge supplies and massive premines. coins that are centralized, buggy, scam,...
this proves that "analyzing" an altcoin is so much more complicated than just looking at its supply. you have to see who is behind it and how much experience they have in pumping it.

Although what are you saying is true, I believe that with time only altcoins with real utility will stay in the market, scams shit coins will disappear meanwhile they will for sure make some lucky people realise gains but I personally prefer to bet on real value tokens. So this analysis I am talking about comes after doing a real deep fundamental analysis to choose project with real utiity. Once that done if I go and buy theses tokens it would be a mistake, because I need to consider two parameters : entry and exit price. For entry price it's quite easy just look to ATH and make a threshold but for exit price and that's when my analysis could be interesting. If you don't look at supply you could say that ADA could reach 10K but if you apply my analysis you would find out that it's impossible because if on ADA = 10k then the capmarket of ada would be 450 trillions dollars bitcoin's market cap is now 900 millions so then you can have at least an idea on what target you could set by comparing like-sized projects.

[TheUltraElite]

Using the market metrics to determine whether a project delivers or not is a wrong method to evaluate them.

Is there development occurring in the project? Either clandestinely or publicly? If so, then it is good for them and that will determine their long term value. If they are trying compete with a mainstream project that has already been established then they will likely never be able to get a ground-hold.

Majority of the projects that failed in the past made the wrong decisions of following mainstream developed projects.

If they have a vision that is feasible and people are willing to support them then the price will go up. But dont forget that price is only a metric that is determined the supply vs demand gap. Price is not a function of how successful the project is. There is a combination of objective and subjective terms here.

Supply on the other hand determines from a trader's point of view, in the short term, how much pump-easy the project is. That is both good and bad.

[davis196]

I'm not that much into altcoins,but the prices and max supply of Link and ADA look like an interesting pattern.
This might be a correlation or a coincidence.We need to gather other data,in order to make a proper analysis.
I don't think that ethereum should be compared to the rest of the altcoins,mainly because of it's uniqueness and the fact that ETH doesn't have a max supply,so the scarcity factor doesn't have a strong impact over the ETH price.

[ahsanif]

i'm more based on the market cap like the ranking given by coinmarketcap, maybe if you correlate it only compares the time it takes when circulating supply with the all time higher it gets

[DarkIT]

All this factor had a co-relation.Only based on the supply,the people will inverse their money.Without a flow of token in a bulk manner.How it's possible to get a profit from the trading.And the price of coin making a very major role.It also some times decided the price of tokens.Liquidity also a important factor.

[Nunoluck]

I think I can take that into my consideration for investing. I usually don't think too much about that, the most important thing for me to invest in a project is  the trend. If the project is something trending which mean there are already some similar project that success then maybe I will choose that project. I think circulating supply is one of important thing, although I prefer like to know about their roadmap. I want to know how they can accelerates their company growth.

[wahyu wida]

I think I can take that into my consideration for investing. I usually don't think too much about that, the most important thing for me to invest in a project is  the trend. If the project is something trending which mean there are already some similar project that success then maybe I will choose that project. I think circulating supply is one of important thing, although I prefer like to know about their roadmap. I want to know how they can accelerates their company growth.

I think I can take that into my consideration for investing. I usually don't think too much about that, the most important thing for me to invest in a project is  the trend. If the project is something trending which mean there are already some similar project that success then maybe I will choose that project. I think circulating supply is one of important thing, although I prefer like to know about their roadmap. I want to know how they can accelerates their company growth.