Are people really that ignorant?

[poby]

I find it perplexing that so many (especially newbies) don't seem to be concerned about the pending Eth POS.  I believe the following to be facts but if anyone can rationally argue any of these points, I would be very interested to hear it.  It's quite possible I'm the stupid one but so far I haven't heard any reasonable rationale to counter the following logical chain.

1. Eth goes POS
2. Immediately, all the gpus currently mining Eth, switch to mining much smaller coins.
3. The enormous amount of hash power causes an enormous increase in difficulty for these smaller coins, resulting in:
4. Smaller coins mining profitability crashing through the floor, way below the electric cost for most miners.

At the moment, other coins are profitable.  Not as profitable as Eth but nonetheless still can generate more revenue than the electricity costs.  But consider a 100x increase in hash power that will result when erstwhile Eth miners switch over.  100 x hash power = 1/100 revenue per hash  (This is a very rough approximation).  Therefore if a card is currently earning $1 a day in revenue, it will drop to 1 cent a day.  Obviously no profit at all here.

Of course very quickly people will start turning off their rigs when they see they can no longer make money.  After a short period of time (weeks maybe), difficulty will drop and an equilibrium will be reached whereby the few miners with the lowest electric cost and the most efficient cards will be left mining with some degree of profitability.  But the majority of current miners will be out of the game.

This is not my opinion, it is factual.  Unless someone can fault my logic. (Please, please do!)

The Eth POS is not like a bear market.  It's a game changer for gpu mining.  There is no other POW coin that is anywhere near Eth's dominance.  The best you can hope for is that EIP1559 continues to be delayed because when it happens, it will be the end of gpu mining for most people.

Probably the worst time ever to be buying overpriced cards and starting mining.

[1713530428]

1713530428

[greenslope]

it will be the end of gpu mining for most people.

since the first btc asics were released to the public, this was said... they should at least be right once.

[batsonxl]

Yes scenario is like you said is correct. Many miners will stop because there will be no profit. if eth goes pos it will be worse time for miners i hope eth will continue pow as well with pos so there will be equilibrium for hashing power. people who buying cards now making mistake, people who bought in december did correct.we will see what happens.

[Vann]

People who only started mining with ETH, which I would venture are the majority of current GPU miners, don't know how good they currently have it due to being able to mine ETH, the most widely adopted and developed Cryptocurrency which has evolved in to multiple market segments with NFT's, DeFi, etc fueling the enormous demand for ETH, which under the current PoW model greatly benefits miners by padding the block rewards they receive.

I started mining pre-ETH back in 2014 which was after the ASIC takeover of SHA-256. Back then Scrypt and X11 type coins were the vast majority of GPU minable coins. The entire market cap for Altcoins was ~500M instead of the almost 1T it currently is. If you able to make over $1 per card after power that was great. Speculative mining for yield on new shitcoins that were launched daily was the most profitable option. BTC market cap percentage of all Crypto was in the 80-90% range and alts, that were mostly only tradable in BTC, closely followed it's price moves. Once BTC dumped to $300 and the bear market that followed added with Scrypt and X11 ASIC's being released, it became completely unprofitable to GPU mine until ETH launched in 2015 and the GPU mining renaissance that followed supported by ETH's constant development and market adoption.

BBT has done and in-depth analysis of the current GPU POW mining options after ETH 2.0 merge. His conclusion is for all the current GPU minable coins, it would take a 10-20X price appreciation to even come close to the current ETH profitability once the hashrate moves over. Something that is very unlikely, especially if the market were to turn negative from it's current state.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QKW3YMPTV5I

[elda34b]

I agree that buying GPU right now is a bad idea. It's way overpriced from MSRP, from 3x to more than 6x in certain market. I'd rather wait and see how the crypto market goes and probably switch to staking or something similar if I can't make enough profit with mining. That being said, there is a possibility of low-mid cap coins price go up, so the future is not that bleak. At least for now.

[PerfectCircle]

OP so many people feel less concerned about the pending ETH PoW algorithm because ethereum team can't be trusted until they did what they promised, do you know how many years it's been since when ETH team have been promising proof of stake algorithm ??

[poby]

OP so many people feel less concerned about the pending ETH PoW algorithm because ethereum team can't be trusted until they did what they promised, do you know how many years it's been since when ETH team have been promising proof of stake algorithm ??

I started mining back in 2017 and Eth POS was supposedly coming within 6 months, so yeah I understand.  It's like the boy who cried "wolf"  After a while nobody listens anymore.  But my point is that when and if it happens, it will be the end of gpu mining for 99% of people.  Of this there can be no doubt.  The gravy train will reach it's final terminus the day Eth goes POS.  So don't expect the salad days to go on forever.

[rdluffy]

I know it's hard to think with all these facts you said, but I'll give my 2 cents here

I joined crypto market and mining with GPUs in the middle of 2017, bought a couple GPUs, 25 or 27 more or less, just before the prices skyrocketed, I mined, made some money, hold some ETH and BTC and sold almost all hardware.
This time I bought just 8 GPUs middle 2020, just before prices skyrocketed again, both of times I bought when each GPU made something line 0.5USD per day with a good chance to gain more in a few months, and both times I did the right choice

If I didn't bought GPUs to mine, I probably never entered the crypto market, and today I can't think about my life without BTC and cryptos, so it's hard to say to a person to don't join us in mining
I discourage people to pay insane prices, but there's always some way, some good offer to buy hardware and start mining, or even buy the GPU to game, but try to pay this GPU with mining

In 2017 people said ALL THE TIME about ETH going POS, and here we are, in 2021 gaining money with GPUs. ETH POS can delay more time, and maybe this time will be good to mine and achieve ROI
Nobody can predict the exact day of ETH POS, even the devs change their minds a lot of times


Another thing to consider and I hardly see people talking about, you have to consider ETH strong because all of us miners help ETH do secure the network and most of us like the coin, spread good things about, hold a lot and it's a good advertise to all ETH network.
Maybe with hashpower coming to another coin, this coin can have price up 100x, devs can make something good to atract miners, or prabably another new fresh coin can surge and need hashpower.

You see, even with those facts you said, and I agre with you, it's hard to predict the future, even with facts

[Didz]

I find it perplexing that so many (especially newbies) don't seem to be concerned about the pending Eth POS.  I believe the following to be facts but if anyone can rationally argue any of these points, I would be very interested to hear it.  It's quite possible I'm the stupid one but so far I haven't heard any reasonable rationale to counter the following logical chain.

1. Eth goes POS
2. Immediately, all the gpus currently mining Eth, switch to mining much smaller coins.
3. The enormous amount of hash power causes an enormous increase in difficulty for these smaller coins, resulting in:
4. Smaller coins mining profitability crashing through the floor, way below the electric cost for most miners.

At the moment, other coins are profitable.  Not as profitable as Eth but nonetheless still can generate more revenue than the electricity costs.  But consider a 100x increase in hash power that will result when erstwhile Eth miners switch over.  100 x hash power = 1/100 revenue per hash  (This is a very rough approximation).  Therefore if a card is currently earning $1 a day in revenue, it will drop to 1 cent a day.  Obviously no profit at all here.

Of course very quickly people will start turning off their rigs when they see they can no longer make money.  After a short period of time (weeks maybe), difficulty will drop and an equilibrium will be reached whereby the few miners with the lowest electric cost and the most efficient cards will be left mining with some degree of profitability.  But the majority of current miners will be out of the game.

This is not my opinion, it is factual.  Unless someone can fault my logic. (Please, please do!)

The Eth POS is not like a bear market.  It's a game changer for gpu mining.  There is no other POW coin that is anywhere near Eth's dominance.  The best you can hope for is that EIP1559 continues to be delayed because when it happens, it will be the end of gpu mining for most people.

Probably the worst time ever to be buying overpriced cards and starting mining.

Great topic poby!

Actually it concerns me a lot and this is why today I bought the necessary hardwares to run an ETH 2.0 node operator...to slowly prepare for the worst.

Your assumptions can be correct but there's probably a lot of factors you don't consider.
First, you don't mention the price of the altcoin which can rise and offset the increased difficulty like it happened with ETH for the last weeks.

Also there's quite a lot of possible altcoins we can GPU mine (as you can see on whattomine.com) so we can expect quick hash rate migrations from one coin to the other way before the profitability is almost null. You are referring more to ASICs for most of them you cannot switch to mine another coin because they are application-specific. On HiveOS for instance with few clicks you start mining another altcoin.

Nevertheless, I do think the profitability will fall (maybe -30% at EIP1559) and maybe much more at ETH 2.0 while mining other coins than ETH.

I think ETH at the actual price is a good opportunity to buy for staking in the future. By the way on Rocket Pool you will be able soon to stake as little as 0.1 ETH and to run a node instead of 32 ETH, it's 16 ETH + 10% for the collateral.

I have been playing with the rocket pool calculator (I had to read Rocket Pool white paper to understand) and if you do abstraction of the ETH you have to stake to run a node and just look at the hardware costs, it's suuupppeeerrr profitable as much as mining ETH was 2 weeks ago. Of course market conditions are always changing so it's hard to do accurate projections but being a fan of Vitalik Buterin and having read a lot about ETH lately I do believe it's the future once ETH 2.0 will have fixed the blockchain trilemma - security, scalability, and decentralization.

Here's the rocket pool calculator:
https://www.rocketpooltool.com/

The 16 ETH you have to stake is really the barrier to entry here!
But the thing is that these ETH you don't lose them, in contrary with hardwares which lose value over time, you'll be able to recover the ETH you staked in the Phase 2 of ETH 2.0 with most probably a good capital gain and with Rocket Pool you'll be able to recover them after a certain delay.

But like many people are saying, ETH 2.0 might happened at the end of this year or beginning of next year or maybe it will be postpone again and again this is why for now I continue buying GPUs and also prepare to run node operators slowly....

Viva Rocket Pool!

[adaseb]

You might not realise this but most newbies have no clue what POW or POS is. Some even have no idea what difficulty is. They are just doing this to make money and nothing more. As long as their generating a profit day after day, they will keep mining and upgrading their farm when the hardware becomes available. They are not worried about ETH crashing to $500, or ETH difficulty doubling due to new ASICs or ETH going POS.

Mining is not the only sector. Look how many people are sending their pay checks, life savings, taking out loans and buying stock options for GME or AMC or buying meme crypto like Dogecoin? They don't really care about the companies such as GME or Doge or how it works. They just want to make money.

Until there is a massive capitulations, even larger than the crash to $30K, then this will keep happening.

[Wingsbtc]

ETH going PoS doesn't mean they will get rid of PoW algorithm, if this was their plan all along there won't be any need for updating to EIP1559, to keep everyone happy is why buterin decide to reduce gas fee and reduce ETH mining reward with EIP1559 update

[Wotan Wipeout]

@wingsbtc

Thats the point.
I checked the timeline a few months ago and the plan was:

1. Start ETH 2 Staking - finished
2. Since you can not "make" ETH 2 it has to be done in sending ETH 1 to ETH 2.
3. ETH 1 and ETH 2 run beside each other
4. Somewhere in the future ETH 1 is done.

This is (for me) the only way to do this.

I just dont believe they "Stop" ETH 1 or "change" it into ETH 2.

What if i am wrong?

The next update on ETH 2 is Altair. It was sheduled for june. Now July or August.

After Altair finished on ETH the London update has to be finished.

https://www.coindesk.com/after-proof-of-stake-pos-more-upgrades-ethereum-2-0-vitalik-buterin

And after London.... there will be another update, named to merge ETH 1 to ETH 2.

I dont expect it this year. So i keep mining.

 

[Samayuki]

I hope people won't end up selling their GPU just because ETH team promised PoS, the truth is PoS can work side by side with PoW which I believe that's what ETH team have in mind, July isn't far away anymore but PoW algorithm on ETH is here to stay, believe that .

[philipma1957]

Reality is POS = piece of shit

Mr V with a coin based on his word along = POS

Mr V with a coin based on 600th of hash = hard iron

 600th of hash backing the coin is about 6,000,000  nvidia 3080's. which now cost over 1500 if you are lucky

so 1500 x 6,000,000 = 9,000,000,000 in gear backing up eth

which he want to change to Mr V and his word backing up eth.

POS = death for Eth

eth was due to go POS years ago.

Now it very well may be that eth was built to destroy crypto as a pow coin.

but only the mentally ill root for POS

the complete lack of understanding of POS and its worthlessness is amazing.

Here is a photo of  my right butt cheek it backs up fart coin.

buy some of my POS and fart coin will be convert to shitcoin in 2 years.

POS are not crypto the are a diversion from the real value of mineable coins.

And the green people simply do not understand how burning power develops cheaper better green power sources.

[deskless]

beside losing opportunity  to sell GPUs at inflated price, what are the loses for miners?

[Didz]

Reality is POS = piece of shit

Mr V with a coin based on his word along = POS

Mr V with a coin based on 600th of hash = hard iron

 600th of hash backing the coin is about 6,000,000  nvidia 3080's. which now cost over 1500 if you are lucky

so 1500 x 6,000,000 = 9,000,000,000 in gear backing up eth

which he want to change to Mr V and his word backing up eth.

POS = death for Eth

eth was due to go POS years ago.

Now it very well may be that eth was built to destroy crypto as a pow coin.

but only the mentally ill root for POS

the complete lack of understanding of POS and its worthlessness is amazing.

Here is a photo of  my right butt cheek it backs up fart coin.

buy some of my POS and fart coin will be convert to shitcoin in 2 years.

POS are not crypto the are a diversion from the real value of mineable coins.

And the green people simply do not understand how burning power develops cheaper better green power sources.

philipma1957 it's always a pleasure to read your posts!

I don't have a crystal ball but I think POS will happen it simply takes time and it's normal. Did you know that back in 1983, a guy called David Chaum had written a paper called “Blind Signatures for Untraceable Transactions.”, in that paper David Chaum conceived an anonymous cryptographic electronic money, believed to be the first cryptocurrency to ever exist. It's not before January 2009 that Bitcoin was then created.

Great technological advancements take time!

Transition to green energies will take a lot of time so meanwhile we have to applaud and welcome all efforts to reduce greenhouse gas especially with new technologies.

Until then I think serious GPU miners should slowly prepare to look to run a validator node on ETH 2.0. With Rocket Pool for instance we can stake only 16 ETH to run a node and you can also be a stakers and put as little as 0.1 ETH to participate on a node and receive rewards.

Here's the Rocket Pool calculator, let me know if you have any questions. I had to read the Rocket Pool white paper to understand how it works.

https://www.rocketpooltool.com/

P.S. Rocket Pool is the only option for staking on ETH which is open source, decentralized and non-custodial. Pretty amazing, if you do abstraction of the ETH you have to stake to run a node and just look at the hardware costs, it's suuupppeeerrr profitable as much as mining ETH was 2 weeks ago.

The 16 ETH you have to stake is really the barrier to entry here!
But the thing is that these ETH you don't lose them, in contrary with hardwares which lose value over time, you'll be able to recover the ETH you staked in the Phase 2 of ETH 2.0 with most probably a good capital gain and with Rocket Pool you'll be able to recover them after a certain delay.

I should receive my hardwares in the following day to set up my first node so I'll be able to share my experience.

[philipma1957]

Reality is POS = piece of shit

Mr V with a coin based on his word along = POS

Mr V with a coin based on 600th of hash = hard iron

 600th of hash backing the coin is about 6,000,000  nvidia 3080's. which now cost over 1500 if you are lucky

so 1500 x 6,000,000 = 9,000,000,000 in gear backing up eth

which he want to change to Mr V and his word backing up eth.

POS = death for Eth

eth was due to go POS years ago.

Now it very well may be that eth was built to destroy crypto as a pow coin.

but only the mentally ill root for POS

the complete lack of understanding of POS and its worthlessness is amazing.

Here is a photo of  my right butt cheek it backs up fart coin.

buy some of my POS and fart coin will be convert to shitcoin in 2 years.

POS are not crypto the are a diversion from the real value of mineable coins.

And the green people simply do not understand how burning power develops cheaper better green power sources.

philipma1957 it's always a pleasure to read your posts!

I don't have a crystal ball but I think POS will happen it simply takes time and it's normal. Did you know that back in 1983, a guy called David Chaum had written a paper called “Blind Signatures for Untraceable Transactions.”, in that paper David Chaum conceived an anonymous cryptographic electronic money, believed to be the first cryptocurrency to ever exist. It's not before January 2009 that Bitcoin was then created.

Great technological advancements take time!

Transition to green energies will take a lot of time so meanwhile we have to applaud and welcome all efforts to reduce greenhouse gas especially with new technologies.

Until then I think serious GPU miners should slowly prepare to look to run a validator node on ETH 2.0. With Rocket Pool for instance we can stake only 16 ETH to run a node and you can also be a stakers and put as little as 0.1 ETH to participate on a node and receive rewards.

Here's the Rocket Pool calculator, let me know if you have any questions. I had to read the Rocket Pool white paper to understand how it works.

https://www.rocketpooltool.com/

P.S. Rocket Pool is the only option for staking on ETH which is open source, decentralized and non-custodial. Pretty amazing, if you do abstraction of the ETH you have to stake to run a node and just look at the hardware costs, it's suuupppeeerrr profitable as much as mining ETH was 2 weeks ago.

The 16 ETH you have to stake is really the barrier to entry here!
But the thing is that these ETH you don't lose them, in contrary with hardwares which lose value over time, you'll be able to recover the ETH you staked in the Phase 2 of ETH 2.0 with most probably a good capital gain and with Rocket Pool you'll be able to recover them after a certain delay.

I should receive my hardwares in the following day to set up my first node so I'll be able to share my experience.

the 16 eth is what creates to setup funds for the ponzi.

it smells of ponzi so bad I smell it here in New Jersey

Worse than the meadowlands at low tide. 

[Didz]

Reality is POS = piece of shit

Mr V with a coin based on his word along = POS

Mr V with a coin based on 600th of hash = hard iron

 600th of hash backing the coin is about 6,000,000  nvidia 3080's. which now cost over 1500 if you are lucky

so 1500 x 6,000,000 = 9,000,000,000 in gear backing up eth

which he want to change to Mr V and his word backing up eth.

POS = death for Eth

eth was due to go POS years ago.

Now it very well may be that eth was built to destroy crypto as a pow coin.

but only the mentally ill root for POS

the complete lack of understanding of POS and its worthlessness is amazing.

Here is a photo of  my right butt cheek it backs up fart coin.

buy some of my POS and fart coin will be convert to shitcoin in 2 years.

POS are not crypto the are a diversion from the real value of mineable coins.

And the green people simply do not understand how burning power develops cheaper better green power sources.

philipma1957 it's always a pleasure to read your posts!

I don't have a crystal ball but I think POS will happen it simply takes time and it's normal. Did you know that back in 1983, a guy called David Chaum had written a paper called “Blind Signatures for Untraceable Transactions.”, in that paper David Chaum conceived an anonymous cryptographic electronic money, believed to be the first cryptocurrency to ever exist. It's not before January 2009 that Bitcoin was then created.

Great technological advancements take time!

Transition to green energies will take a lot of time so meanwhile we have to applaud and welcome all efforts to reduce greenhouse gas especially with new technologies.

Until then I think serious GPU miners should slowly prepare to look to run a validator node on ETH 2.0. With Rocket Pool for instance we can stake only 16 ETH to run a node and you can also be a stakers and put as little as 0.1 ETH to participate on a node and receive rewards.

Here's the Rocket Pool calculator, let me know if you have any questions. I had to read the Rocket Pool white paper to understand how it works.

https://www.rocketpooltool.com/

P.S. Rocket Pool is the only option for staking on ETH which is open source, decentralized and non-custodial. Pretty amazing, if you do abstraction of the ETH you have to stake to run a node and just look at the hardware costs, it's suuupppeeerrr profitable as much as mining ETH was 2 weeks ago.

The 16 ETH you have to stake is really the barrier to entry here!
But the thing is that these ETH you don't lose them, in contrary with hardwares which lose value over time, you'll be able to recover the ETH you staked in the Phase 2 of ETH 2.0 with most probably a good capital gain and with Rocket Pool you'll be able to recover them after a certain delay.

I should receive my hardwares in the following day to set up my first node so I'll be able to share my experience.

the 16 eth is what creates to setup funds for the ponzi.

it smells of ponzi so bad I smell it here in New Jersey

Worse than the meadowlands at low tide.  

Hahaha you're funny!
There's always a risk when you deal with developers who coded a smart contract on the ETH ecosystem.
Rocket Pool are presently under audit from both Sigma Prime and ConsenSys Diligence which if I am not wrong are 2 of the biggest independent crypto audit players in the field.

RocketPool is amazing, like I wrote the stakers can put as little as 0.1 ETH and when there's 16 ETH from a group of stakers they are grouped with an ETH node operator who staked 16 ETH to run a node (the protocol requires 32 ETH to run a node).

The node operator on RocketPool takes a commission (minimum 5% we can set up that percentage) on the reward that the stakers receive. So running a node with RocketPool is more lucrative then running a node solo.

There's also an insurance (collateral) that the node operators must add to run a node on Rocket Pool (min 10%, max 150% from the 16 ETH) so it guarantees the stakers to not be penalized if the node operator goes rogue or doesn't maintain well his node (downtime periods, etc).

[arielbit]

The Eth POS is not like a bear market.  It's a game changer for gpu mining.  There is no other POW coin that is anywhere near Eth's dominance.  The best you can hope for is that EIP1559 continues to be delayed because when it happens, it will be the end of gpu mining for most people.

only the battle hardened GPU miners will remain 

[electronicash]

OP so many people feel less concerned about the pending ETH PoW algorithm because ethereum team can't be trusted until they did what they promised, do you know how many years it's been since when ETH team have been promising proof of stake algorithm ??

I started mining back in 2017 and Eth POS was supposedly coming within 6 months, so yeah I understand.  It's like the boy who cried "wolf"  After a while nobody listens anymore.  But my point is that when and if it happens, it will be the end of gpu mining for 99% of people.  Of this there can be no doubt.  The gravy train will reach it's final terminus the day Eth goes POS.  So don't expect the salad days to go on forever.

it's already impending for time. they are even delaying it again i think by dec 2022. by 2022 they might again announce a delay because hey we're in transition to greener energy. maybe ETH will also be affected by this transition. if you have mined ETH since 2017 i guess you already have more than 32 ETH for POS node. 

just so your GPUs not goign to waste,  isn't XMR profitable as well for GPU miners?