A Brazen Prediction of the Future

[mju_crypto]

I've always been interested in predictions of the future. I don't mean tepid, noncommittal predictions. I mean bold predictions with more solid dates. I understand the rational for tepid predictions. Its hard to say what will happen for sure. However, I think that people are too afraid of being wrong. I love seeing the depictions of the late 20th and early 21st century from the 1950's and 60's. They make pretty bold predictions and its fun to see what they've gotten right or wrong.

While some aspects of the topic aren't fun, I want to make interesting and bold predictions of how Bitcoin could affect our future. I'll write this as a timeline with each section denoting a period of time. I'll make price, adoptions, economic, and sociopolitical predictions in each section.

Before we begin, I'll want to make this clear. Do your own research! I'm not a financial advisor, so this is not financial advice. I'm not an economist, political scientist, or sociologist either. So I'm more than likely getting a lot of this wrong, but I'm okay with that. This is pure speculation on my part based on what I've learned from my dive into the Bitcoin rabbit hole. I barely did any research specifically for this, I just wanted to have fun writing about a possible future.

Let's jump in!

Q3 2021 - 2023

By the end of 2021, Bitcoin will reach $100,000. This is due to several factors: increased institutional adoption, Taproot activation, and the first Bitcoin ETF approved by the SEC. The first two pump it past $50,000. The Bitcoin ETF, for better or for worse, doubles the value of Bitcoin. One hundred grand is likely to be a psychologically significant. There will probably be a large boost in online retailers willing to accept Bitcoin. Once at $100,000, many institutions and retail investors FOMO in. The price will likely increase to $150,000 before crashing back down to $70,000 or $80,000 due to FUD in the first couple quarters of 2022. I believe the FUD will center around some countries banning retailers from accepting Bitcoin. An alternate or accompanying piece of FUD would be tainted coins. This crash marks the start of the bear market. Throughout 2022 and 2023, the price will keep around $100,000.

During this time, the world will begin going "back to normal" from the global pandemic. As the more locked down areas begin opening up, the supply chain will return to full functionality. Of course, the US president at the time will take credit. Prices will drop some due to the healing supply chain. Economists will proceed to dismiss the fears of inflation as unfounded panic. An economic boom will happen as things open up. The stock market will be glowing! A new roaring 20's!

Governments will use the windfall to further increase spending and borrowing. The Biden administration has already announced a budget of $6T. The US and EU perform limited tests of their CBDCs during this time. The US also prepares for the next presidential election in 2023. I don't believe that Joe Biden will continue being president due to his age and health issues. Kamala Harris will likely be the favored candidate for the Democratic party. I'm not sure who will be the favored candidate for the Republicans, but I think Donald Trump may run again. He will either be in the Republican party or run as a third party candidate a la Bull Moose Party. I think that this is dependent on how the 2022 elections go.

The next big upgrade to the base chain will be [Secure the Bag](https://bitcoinmagazine.com/technical/secure-the-bag-cutting-transactions-in-half-to-resolve-bitcoin-network-congestion). This upgrade essentially lets users split their transactions into two. One transaction is the sending transaction. Its confirmed quickly at a higher fee. The second is the receiving transaction. This transaction has low fees and can be spent from since it is guaranteed by the sending transaction. This can help increase transaction throughput on-chain which subsequently speeds up transactions in any layer above.

 I believe that some sort of computing functionality such as a smart contract equivalent will come to Lightning or as its own layer. The Lightning network is adoption is slowing growing each year. New use cases pop up for the second layer network.

2024

Another halving! A presidential election! 2024 is likely to be a significant year for many. The price is on an upswing, starting a new bull market. It seems as though every bull market brings a new trend like ICOs, DeFi, and NFTs. I'm going to say that the next trend will be DAO's and governance. This will get many people into legal trouble due to DAO's still being a legal gray area. There'll obviously be scam DAO's. Somebody will find a way to fit a pyramid or Ponzi scheme into one. In anticipation of the halving, the price increases from its usually $100K

September 16, 2024. The halving occurs. Each block now only yields 3.125 BTC in block rewards. The price increases by a good amount. Probably to $230,000 per BTC.

Riding on the booming economy, Kamala Harris becomes president of the United States. Feminists rejoice! This incidentally causes Bitcoin's price to shoot up, getting it to $300,000. Many believe that her Congress will continue to the increase of borrowing and spending. CBDC tests are ongoing.

Institutional adoption is beginning to ramp up again in anticipation of a parabolic move as a result of the halving and in anticipation of further inflation. Secure the Bag is finally included into the code as a soft fork, increasing the price to $350,000.

If it hasn't already, Amazon will start accepting Bitcoin, both on chain and via lightning. This will trigger a cascade of online retail acceptance. Big box stores will begin to accept Bitcoin for online purchases only. This bullish action will increase the price to $390,000.

Throughout the year, mining is becoming an extremely popular hobby. ASIC manufacturers will begin to create energy efficient, but relatively weak miners for the average person. You can get around $2000 a year from the miner. These quickly sell out. Old miners are in huge demand. The sudden increase of power consumption will probably cause a power outage in a small to medium sized US city. This will lead to regulations on mining. Some places may require a license to mine. This FUD will drop the price back down to $300,000.

2025 - 2027

The bull is charging through the market! Stocks, Bitcoin, and other assets are increasing in price! Bitcoin gets to $500,000. Multiple Bitcoin ETFs have been approved at this point. Bitcoin makes up small to medium sized amounts of many people's retirement. Bitcoin is slowly becoming a part of everyone's life for better or for worse. Some games and content creation utilize the lightning network. A few driverless vehicles are taking Bitcoin as fare. There are green energy startups that use Bitcoin mining to bootstrap their operations. I predict that 15% of the global population will own some sats or be exposed to Bitcoin in one way or another by the end of 2025. 8% use it in their daily lives.

As Bitcoin ages, the frequency of FUD reduces. Adoption is only growing as time goes on. The last bit of FUD will probably come from tainted coins and quantum computers. I think this time around, FUD from quantum computing will be what brings Bitcoin from a peak of $1.4M to $900,000. The bear market will last from the end of 2025 to 2027. Bitcoin bounces between $1.2M and $1.3M for the duration of the bear market.

Hodling sats is becoming a symbol of status. People associate a large bag with foresight and/or wealth. It becomes trendy to brag about how many sats you have and how long ago you invested in Bitcoin. If you have 1 or more BTC, you're a legend. This will start to backfire however. Bitcoiners begin to be the targets of scams and theft. This will slowly escalate to violence in the coming years.

Meanwhile, the M2 and M3 money continues to increase. The official CPI increases by 3% in 2025, 3% in 2026, and 4% in 2027. From 2020 to 2027, the official CPI has increased by an alarming 26%. Alternate stats show a more grim +55% increase in prices. A $15 an hour minimum wage is passed in the United States with plans to increase it by 3% each year for 10 years. Many businesses, large and small, begin looking to automation to save money.

2028

The roaring 2020's are coming to a close and people are nervous about what happens next. There are rumblings about the eerie similarities between the 1920's and the 2020's. If history is anything to go by, many people believe that a Great Depression is coming next. This fear is not unfounded. The only thing keeping hyperinflation at bay is the governments of the world attempting to stem the velocity of money and somewhat reducing the printing of money. The debt to GDP ratio is through the roof.

Counteracting the negative energy, another halving will be taking place this year! At this point in time, Halvings have become a sort of mini-holiday for many Bitcoiners. After the halving the price slowly increases to $1.5M. Some are beginning to lament the stability of Bitcoin's price. They're used to the crazy price action of assets in the past decade. Stocks and real estate prices continue to moon.

Inflation continues its march across the economy. The CPI is adjusted once again. The official CPI states an increase of 5%. However, under the previous standard, prices have increased 11%. As faith in the US dollar continues to fade, many are turning to Bitcoin, gold, and other assets. Central banks around the world are beginning to publicly add Bitcoin to their coffers. This increases the price of Bitcoin to a whopping $2M.

Earlier this year, the EU has officially released their CBDC. A few months later, the US announces their CBDC. It is slated to be released early 2029. The EU, US, and China all announce UBI programs through their digital currencies to encourage adoption.


This post is getting long so I'll go over the 2030's and 2041 and beyond in either a second post or in the comments as a continuation. Don't be afraid to call my predictions BS and post your own!

[1713943091]

1713943091

[1713943091]

1713943091

[stompix]

Let's jump in!
Q3 2021 - 2023

By the end of 2021, Bitcoin will reach $100,000. This is due to several factors: increased institutional adoption, Taproot activation, and the first Bitcoin ETF approved by the SEC. The first two pump it past $50,000.

Yeah, lets' stop here.
Taproot is going to lock on this period and we all know it will get activated, the whole thing is really priced in and people really overestimate its effect, for sure it's a great improvement but as with all technicals that are indeed useful, it lacks that flash needed for hype, the end poverty, the cure cancer bit that catches the eye and sells to the masses. It's like in the car industry, nobody cares about a 10% increase in fuel efficiency but everyone is thrilled by a back mirror dash camera or cornering lights.

As for the increased institutional adoption, I'm not sure what you mean by adoption. Investing in it, sure, adoption is being used more and more in RL, I'm uncertain about this, usage grows at a snail pace with everyone focusing on holding so we won't see this part. Also institutional is a broad term, so again, this is way too much speculation on the effects.

ETF...man, the whole thing with those ETFs is that we've been waiting so much for them, every time with the hope this one will be approved, so much time has passed that it has not only lost its hype factor but for a lot of things also its utility, you can see that companies are buying and holding coins themselves, funds are doing the same, so the door the ETF was supposed to open for the first time for investors is already smacked against the wall.

I'm totally bearish for this year, I feel like all those things that people expect to happen are already priced in and to finally see a pump at least back to 60k we need something really unexpected to happen, a thing like the Paypal now coming from somebody else,  something that simply has to put the stop on this continuous decline, but it has to be something that nobody had even though about it and if they had they have dismissed it already. I honestly thought the Salvador news might be the one, seems like I overestimated it, so it just is something bigger.

For the rest of your timeline I will not get into details, things that are expected to happen over 4-5 years from now one is too much speculation, look how the virus came and how it changed the whole picture, in 4 years go knows what else can influence the markets, but I'm far more bullish for 2022-2024 than for the rest of this year.

One more thing:

Throughout the year, mining is becoming an extremely popular hobby. ASIC manufacturers will begin to create energy efficient, but relatively weak miners for the average person. You can get around $2000 a year from the miner. These quickly sell out. Old miners are in huge demand. The sudden increase of power consumption will probably cause a power outage in a small to medium sized US city.

That's not the trend, for years miners have become bigger and bigger and more power-hungry, you simply can't create 10 10TH miners at the same price of a 100TH unit, and this will always affect sales, that's why we see them growing more and more if the price does indeed grow to such extent we might see 5KW and 7KW units pretty soon. And if the price goes to 400k, expect the growth in energy to be around 6 times if we include the halving, close to 600TWh, that's New York, Florida and California combined 

[slaman29]

Very long post indeed but I don't agree with an early point of 100k by end of the year. I think it will be close, but it will still need next year, if by then the rally is still ongoing.

Taproot is good but nobody in markets really care, and ETF effect is almost gone already. 100k from 30k now? That means retailers even worse will not want in because of volatility:)

[mju_crypto]

Here's part two!

2029 - 2035

2029 is known as the year of digital currency. Bitcoin has become the defacto currency of the internet. Most developed nations have released a CBDC. Many developing nations are developing their own digital currencies. I expect CBDCs to take on a proof of stake/proof of authority structure. Central banks will give licenses to banks and other organizations to be come participants in the network. The amount of money an organization stakes determines their reward and how often they verify transactions. Many banks will issue their own wallets with special features, including access to Bitcoin through custodial or multi-sig wallets.

Over the past decade, the national debt of the US has increased to nearly 300% of GDP. Many organizations, nations, and individuals are losing faith in the US's ability to repay this massive debt. As a result, a sell off of bonds and other US debt vehicles begins. This sell off spooks the wider economy. Trust in government debt is reduced, so organizations and individuals turn to other assets. The demand for real estate, stocks, and cryptocurrency balloons. This demand in turn raises prices. Bitcoin's price pumps to $3.5M. Since the interest rates are artificially low, this increases demand for loans. Banks are willing to give out more loans. Banks are giving out more risky loans as well, since defaults on the loans result in more equity for the bank. 2008 seems to be playing out all over again.

Meanwhile, the government is starting to have a budget crisis. Over the decade, more governments around the world are opting for bonds in other countries. Now, organizations and individuals are less willing to loan to the government. The US federal government is also getting less in taxes due to increased use of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, privacy coins in particular. There are only two solutions the government can resort to: increase taxes on the wealthy or inflate the currency even further. The government opts for both. The increased taxes on the wealthy and large businesses causes more tax avoidance and tax evasion. More businesses leave the US for other countries.

The Fed increases the money supply since its the buyer of last resort for government debt. It prints more money and loans it to the government. This new money is used to meet the government's bloated budget and keep up with UBI payments through the new US CBDC.

The prices of everything from food to real estate is climbing at an alarming rate. Economists and the government are in denial, stating that everything's under control and prices should return to normal relatively soon. Scandalously, the CPI is adjusted once more to show a lower than observed inflation rate. However the jig is up. Throughout 2030 and 2031, prices increase by many multiples. A financial crisis the likes no one has ever seen has arrived.

What happens if the global reserve currency is subject to hyperinflation? Its hard to say, especially for someone who isn't an economist. I can can say is that nothing good will come of it. I believe that the purchasing power of other currencies begins to drop as well. Countries all over the world begin to remove USD and US debt vehicles from their coffers in exchange for other assets and currencies if they haven't already. The Euro and Chinese Yuan begin to see widespread adoption as reserve currencies. Countries who have recognized Bitcoin as legal tender buy more BTC for their coffers.

Panic consumes the United States. There are shortages of many goods due to panic buying and supply chain disruption. People are seeing the prices of daily essentials go up everyday, leading to hording. This causes prices to be driven up even further. Riots and crime increase in the chaos. Unemployment skyrockets as many business are unable to afford wages and other operation costs. This directly leads to large swaths of the population becoming homeless. These people lose their incomes then lose their homes. They are unable to afford new homes due to rampant inflation. This crisis is larger than any other financial crisis the United States has ever faced.

In 2032, the US restructures its monetary system for the first time since the 1971. Rather than create a whole new currency and separate from the cultural weight the dollar held, the Federal Reserve restructures the dollar through their CBDC. You can exchange old dollars in cash or in bank accounts with dollars on the "decentralized" ledger at a 1000:1 ratio. The Fed may use this as an opportunity to get rid of physical cash. If they go through with this decision, there would likely be backlash. If reversed by either by popular demand to the Federal Reserve or by legislation, the new bills and coins will likely have new designs. Many people will exchange their fiat for cryptocurrencies.

I predict that the financial crisis will result in a mass extinction of alt-coins. Only a few cryptocurrencies with solid fundamentals will survive. Given its popularity and history, Bitcoin will likely be the cryptocurrency of choice. Many simply convert Bitcoin to the other cryptocurrencies to make use of their unique properties, essentially making them side-chains of Bitcoin. This massive increase in adoption will raise the price to over $4M of today's dollar.

Over the following years, the United States falls from global dominance. Many countries no longer use US dollars as a significant part of their reserves. Many opt for the Euro, the Yen, or the Yuan. A few small nations may actually back their currencies with gold, silver, or a basket of commodities. Over the decade more and more central banks add Bitcoin to their reserves. Several nations, including the United States, have even recognized Bitcoin as legal tender.

2036 and beyond

This section will deal with the aftermath of the Second Great Depression. I'll separate it into several parts for easy reading.

People and Culture

The 2030's will be known as a time of strife and change. The massive financial crisis, likely to be called the Second Great Depression, will force many businesses, organizations, and individuals to deal exclusively in Bitcoin. This will likely continue into the future. Due to the decentralized nature of Bitcoin, it will make organizations and individuals hard to tax. This will be especially true if more privacy preserving features are added to Bitcoin or many if people make use of the surviving privacy coins. As people abandon fiat and CBDC's, governments around the world start to lose tax revenue.

The world is separated into two classes: those who use fiat and those who use Bitcoin. The poor will likely be unable to spend their Bitcoin because they have none or they are using it as their only form of savings. These people will have little to no choice but to use CBDCs. However, any spare penny they have will be used to stack sats. People who are able to use Bitcoin for their daily transactions are the new wealthy elite. No matter what class you are a part of, you will likely have Bitcoin or are trying to transition your wealth into it.

The rise of Bitcoin, the returns its early adopters received, the second depression, and the follies of government monetary policy will transform the zeitgeist. Consumerism will be seen as wasteful and foolish. No one but the extremely rich could afford to spend and borrow as recklessly as we did before the depression. Living below your means will become trendy. Minimalism will make a huge comeback. Most people will have only a few devices; the smartphone or its descendant will be king amongst them.

The entertainment industry will morph as a result of the depression. Economic hardship will make people less keen to buy games and movies. As a result, gaming and movie quality increases out of necessity. Movies aim to be rewatchable and memorable. Games are packed with long form, highly interactive content. Subscription services must offer more in order to attract customers. Artists must create pieces that are actually appealing and have lasting value. Even after the depression, people are less willing to depart with their bitcoin unless its for a good reason. So this trend will continue.

Governments

Governments will not like this one bit. Banning Bitcoin has been tried for decades, however it has proven to be an exercise in futility. Even if they could, banning would likely do nothing but harm a still healing economy. What government try to solve the problem depends on whether or not chain analysis is still viable. If it is still viable, government will likely require wallets to be tied to identities. They will also attempt to pressure the developers into abandoning any privacy features to be added to Bitcoin. This will fail because only one rogue developer is needed to create an upgrade that makes chain analysis extremely difficult, if not impossible. Governments may also attempt to force citizens into using bitcoin with multi-sig addresses with a script clause allowing said government to confiscate coins. This will also fail spectacularly.

Governments may attempt to regulate full nodes and mining. This will be an attempt to blacklist addresses linked to tax evasion or other illicit activities. Of course the ban can be lifted for a hefty fee. However, mining equipment became cheaper due to ASIC's catching up to Moore's law in the early 2020's. There will be millions of old miners and new energy efficient, but weak miners all around the world. It is unlikely that governments will be able to attain and maintain more than 50% of the hashrate. Even if this was successful, all it would take is a small percentage of the hashrate to be made up of dissident miners to allow for "illegal" transactions. This would of course lead to a fork. The fork free of regulation and taxes is likely to become the more valuable fork.

Some governments will likely employ more old-school techniques to gain revenue. I predict a large increase in civil asset forfeiture. Tax collectors going home to home may make a return in some jurisdictions. Bitcoin's informational nature allows for it to be hidden quite effectively.

All of this will take place in the late 2030's and early 2040's. From 2045 and onwards, governments around the world will be starved of tax and inflationary revenue. Bitcoin will force governments to become smaller, and more lean. Economically free and sovereign zones will attract exponentially more business than large nations of old. I predict that many states, provinces, territories, and cities will begin to petition their governments to become economically free zones. Greed and power have always motivated governments, so they will capitulate in an attempt to leech off the prosperity of these zones. This will be the undoing of the nation state as we know it.

Crime

As nation states become weaker and weaker, organized crime will have a new resurgence. Organized crime returned in a big way during the depression. In the 1920's, alcohol was the main source of revenue for gangs. After prohibition, drugs were the primary sources of income for organized criminals. This is likely to remain the case through the mid and late 21st century. Drugs produced in more lenient economic zones will be sold to people in more restrictive areas. However, after the second depression, theft and extortion will make up a larger portion of their revenue. These organized gangs will likely employ threats of physical violence, burglary, scams, and hacking to make profit.

Bitcoiners will be the targets of muggings, assault, kidnapping, torture, or even murder. There will likely be a few prominent cases of Bitcoiners getting tortured or held for ransom. If the Bitcoin developers haven't already implemented anti-chain analysis features, it will become top priority. This reality will cause a cultural shift. While in the 2020's it was cool to brag about how much you've stacked, it will become a sign of stupidity or arrogance. Probably both. It will become extremely rude to ask to see someone's wallet. If you show someone how much Bitcoin you have, it is a display of high trust for that person.

The Economy

Most online commerce runs on Bitcoin. Of course, most sites still take CBDCs and fiat along side BTC, but few will take government currencies exclusively. With the second great depression, many businesses increased automation to previously unseen levels. People who lost their jobs to the machines subsist off the gig economy and UBI.

Those who still have jobs will experience a shift in the workplace. They will likely still experience some form of automation, leading to shorter work days and work weeks. When signing on to a new job, you choose which currency you'd like to be paid in. Working remotely is now the norm. Retirement options will be limited as many people simply opt to save Bitcoin in long term cold storage.

With the collapse of the fiat system, we see a return to gold standard price levels. The financial crisis will likely force a reform of the healthcare system in the US, leading to cheaper prices. Economically free zones will be even cheaper to live in. Since Bitcoin is disinflationary and people still lose their sats, Bitcoin's price will slowly increase over time. Prices will deflate just due to that. Combine that with the deflationary force of technological progress, and you will see a drastic decrease in the cost of living all over the world.

[wheelz1200]

I mean you did say brazen so can't knock you there.  That is a very aggressive path ahead in the next 8 years to $2mil with a 3 year bear in there.  There will have to be an insane amount of buy pressure to hold those prices in the near future.  There will be tons of sell off in the 6 figures when it gets there.  That's bold but hey I hope it does follow that trajectory 😀

[Slow death]

Does anyone on this forum still hope to see the SEC prove ETF?

here's what I think will happen in relation to ETF: postponed, postponed, postponed, postponed, rejected

when the $100,000 price forecast this year still thinks too exaggerated, for us to see $100,000 we would have to get the Tesla man to do twitter campaigns on bitcoin once again, I read somewhere that he talked about mining companies must use green energy, are critical that somehow will make the price drop. as I was saying we would need to have more billionaires buying bitcoin and I don't see the price going to $100,000 this year, maybe next year

[Fesatmas]

I appreciate your long post and try to give us some insight. over time predictions of the most important elements began to emerge.

We know that this is not a random prediction, it must be based on theoretical studies, research and analysis which will take a very long time.

regardless of predictions from year to year, we still find it difficult to guess 1 day ahead how the fate of Bitcoin and its price will fall or even

return to provide a stepping stone.

all can not convince 100%. because the state of the market is always changing based on the geography of the big holders trying to confuse
us.

maybe you need to know, that the impact of china policy on cryptocurrency, will definitely change your post as a whole.

[Dabs]

Brazen? What year in your timeline does bitcoin reach $50 million or $100 million per coin? I can only assume it has to be before the turn of the century, but we're all dead at that point.

[Anonylz]

regardless of predictions from year to year, we still find it difficult to guess 1 day ahead how the fate of Bitcoin and its price will fall or even
return to provide a stepping stone...

Couldn't agree more about predictions, we have had quite a lot of them over a decade now and some times the predictions come close to what has been predicted and other times (and in most cases) the prediction goes the total opposite of the market at that time, as you said, it is still very difficult to predict what will happen to price in the next 2 days, there are few months before year end and within this remaining months anything can happen that will change the direction of the market.

[buwaytress]

Hate to break it to you bud, but your future predictions are relatively tame. Nothing's brazen anymore once you've had ex US Presidential campaigners putting a $1M number on Bitcoin.... last year. He's sitting in Spanish jail now (that wasn't his reward of course) and since then not many have ventured into his territory.

A decade only before US dollar falls from global dominance you say?

And what about digital yuan set to make its mark in a couple of years?

Keep em coming. Deserves all my remaining merits for the Thursday entertainment.

[stompix]

Governments may attempt to regulate full nodes and mining. This will be an attempt to blacklist addresses linked to tax evasion or other illicit activities. Of course the ban can be lifted for a hefty fee. However, mining equipment became cheaper due to ASIC's catching up to Moore's law in the early 2020's. There will be millions of old miners and new energy efficient, but weak miners all around the world. It is unlikely that governments will be able to attain and maintain more than 50% of the hashrate. Even if this was successful, all it would take is a small percentage of the hashrate to be made up of dissident miners to allow for "illegal" transactions. This would of course lead to a fork. The fork free of regulation and taxes is likely to become the more valuable fork.

Moore Law has been dead for ages.
I told you in the previous message, you should research how bitcoin mining works.

If there will be a fork unless there is a change in algorithm that won't protect the network from  51% attack, both coins will be mined with the same gear and the government will be able to divert their entre hashing power at the older coin and do that even more efficiently since the fork will also keep a bit of value and a few free miners will switch their hash rate to that, making the true chain less secure. And changing the algorithm that far ahead at that value will be suicide.

And again you keep on dreaming about house mining, that path is blocked, there will be no such thing and it makes no economic sense for it to become reality.

Panic consumes the United States. There are shortages of many goods due to panic buying and supply chain disruption. People are seeing the prices of daily essentials go up everyday, leading to hording. This causes prices to be driven up even further. Riots and crime increase in the chaos. Unemployment skyrockets as many business are unable to afford wages and other operation costs. This directly leads to large swaths of the population becoming homeless. These people lose their incomes then lose their homes. They are unable to afford new homes due to rampant inflation.

Shortage, unemployment, price rise, all those happened in March last year, you remember the price per coin evolution?

The 2030's will be known as a time of strife and change. The massive financial crisis, likely to be called the Second Great Depression, will force many businesses, organizations, and individuals to deal exclusively in Bitcoin. This will likely continue into the future. Due to the decentralized nature of Bitcoin, it will make organizations and individuals hard to tax.

Do you think there was no tax before credit cards and banks and checks?
Taxes were collected even in the middle ages, you can't hide your income, you have a contract with an employer and that contract mentions he is paying you x, then you will need to pay taxes for that x. Will he forge the payments? You can do this even now with fiat but how many are going to risk it?

I mean you did say brazen so can't knock you there.  That is a very aggressive path ahead in the next 8 years to $2mil with a 3 year bear in there.  There will have to be an insane amount of buy pressure to hold those prices in the near future.  There will be tons of sell off in the 6 figures when it gets there. 

Imagine the Winklevoss twins dumping their coins at 6 figures and further on, more than the GDP of entire countries! Where will the money come if everything is in ruin, people can't find food, no jobs, and are homeless? The only way to achieve that would be for 1 million then to have the purchasing power of $100k.
Contrary to what some think I believe Bitcoin will benefit more from a stable and growing economy rather than one in crisis

[BrewMaster]

i don't think US is going to approve any bitcoin ETFs anytime soon. other countries have already approved a bunch of them a long time ago then and they don't really affect bitcoin price.
as for the price by the end of this year i have decreased my prediction by i still don't think $100k is the top, it will be $300k. keep in mind that price went up 6x in only 8 months and the bull market is just getting started and the rises should become bigger and faster.

anything longer than 3-4 years is not possible to predict anymore, we can only say that bitcoin price will be a lot higher than the current price but the situation is not predictable. although you are doing a very interesting thing here. i'll keep an eye on it.
i also believe that after some years the market will be very different from today. for example by 2024 we may no longer see shitcoins (pointing to your comment about comeback of ICO,etc.) in general be a significant thing.

i also have a feeling that you are also not considering market maturity in your speculation. things such as the short term hyped up news or any irrelevant news in general won't affect bitcoin price by that much. so things like FUD about energy, shitcoin hype, bitcoin ETF, US election, regulations in general,... even Amazon accepting bitcoin won't affect bitcoin that much. however the adoption would be increasing faster and without any of the stop signs that slow it down today.

[Dabs]

Bitcoin to $100 million per coin, this century. My solar powered atomic sync Casio G-shock is going to die (or tell the wrong date) sometime after December 31 2099.

[el kaka22]

The reason why people do not make guaranteed or timed predictions is the fact that you can't be always right, there is a logic behind all of this and that is why people do not make those predictions. Think about it, one day Elon tweets something and price totally changes, dude single handedly changed the direction of a whole market, how can you predict that? You can't predict something like that and it is impossible.

This is why there is a good amount of predictions that look at the charts, look at history, look at many other things and make a prediction and end up wrong over a tweet; which is why there is nobody that makes a good prediction if they are very smart about economics, this is not stock market or gold or something like that, this is the wildlife and here anything could happen and usually does happen. Which is why this prediction could be as right as it is wrong.

[sunsilk]

Institutions and upcoming another halving shall be enough to make the fundamentals better for bitcoin.

$100k at the end of the year is still a joke for some but they don't realize that even if it won't happen by the end of this year. We're still going to see some good news kicking in by next year and so on.

Just hold even it's only 1 bitcoin folks!

[magneto]

Completely agree with your bullish long term view.

Not entirely sure about the prediction of BTC hitting $100k by the end of the year, though. There just seems to be a lot less momentum now compared to even months before when the FOMO was through the roof. People are a lot more cautious now in general.

Timing wise, we're reaching that 1-1.5 year mark after the halving event when bull markets usually taper off - so that is no good either.

[Obito]

Very long post indeed but I don't agree with an early point of 100k by end of the year. I think it will be close, but it will still need next year, if by then the rally is still ongoing.

Taproot is good but nobody in markets really care, and ETF effect is almost gone already. 100k from 30k now? That means retailers even worse will not want in because of volatility:)

With the current state of prices, I don't think that it's going to be really happening by the end of the year, we haven't touched 70k yet and we are dreaming of 100k now? That's pretty far fetch but there's still hope since there's still 6 months left this year before the prophecy becomes true and whatever happens, we better hodl on and have a lot of bitcoin accumulated in the case that it happens.

[BlackHatCoiner]

<sarcasm>

2036-2040

Bitcointalk gets rid of the SMF script and replaces it with Epochtalk. Although, it's a beta version, but the forum software is under some serious development!

</sarcasm>


Nice predictions, OP.  
Watching.

[UnDerDoG81]

2026: Do not forget the vaccinated zombies that seek for none vaxxers brain because they themselves never had one  

[cryptosize]

Very bearish prediction IMHO, not really brazen.

Also:

2028

Earlier this year, the EU has officially released their CBDC. A few months later, the US announces their CBDC. It is slated to be released early 2029. The EU, US, and China all announce UBI programs through their digital currencies to encourage adoption.

CBDCs are slated to come a lot sooner (2025 at the latest):

https://www.ledgerinsights.com/ecb-lagarde-digital-euro-by-2025/