Summer dip?!, December price outcome? ---> JOIN and guess the price GO!

[Bttzed03]

Thanks for the mention and the competition.

I don't really know how long the consolidation period will be but I bet on 3 more months. After that, I expect a fast climb to the previous ATH (~$65K) and will go for another 2x by December. I wanted to pick $130K but that's too close to @strawbs' price. My prediction is $135,000.

[1713886023]

1713886023

[1713886023]

1713886023

[1713886023]

1713886023

[UmerIdrees]

-to participate you must HAVE 250 EARNED MERIT and at least 100 ACTIVITY

I only had this question is why the full members can't participate in this contest ? They don't have vision on the price prediction for bitcoin or don't have much knowledge ? All those who earned 250 merits can more precisely predict the bitcoin price  ?

I am sad being left out here 

[o_e_l_e_o]

You need a reason?
Consecutive numbers are
What I always pick.

I cannot read charts.
I don't understand TA.
I just like patterns.

I always choose my
Numbers with a haiku, so
Four Three Two One Naught.

$43,210

[bitebits]

The trend of bitcoin against the petrodollar is up since the genesis block got mined on the 3rd of January 2009. Speculating on any dollar number under the current $33210 on Bitstamp therefore makes little sense. We only have to look Up which unfortunately decreases the odds of a correct guesstimate infinitely.

The current ~50% price reduction from the $64895.22 ATH on Bitstamp does temporarily affect the influx of freshly printed fiat. It as well will take some time to get beyond the selling pressure on the inevitable way up by those wanting their inflationary fiat back or in retrospective regret not selling (more).

Given the short time frame between now and the 7th of December, about five months, a reasonable price is therefore likely between $33210 and $64895. If LFC and myself were the only ones making a prediction, any number I pick within that range would likely win this speculation game. But since there still seems to be a bit of competition within this already narrow range, I'll go with the SOMA lucky number $47777.

[Smartprofit]

My prediction:

box 214, price of 1 BTC = $34,200.

In my opinion, consolidation will continue in 2021, accumulation at a level above the price of $ 30,000.  Many will sell their bitcoins.  This is a fatal mistake.  only HODL!  In 2022, the price of 1 BTC = $ 300,000.

[JimboToronto]

Box 331 - $350,000 ($350k) please.

[SFR10]

I'm mentioning all users with at least 250 earned Merit (data from last week) so if they use a bot for it, they'll receive a notification about this topic:

Thank you for doing that
$84,400 <sup>[box 259]
- Initially, I came up with $84,482.34 but box 260 was already taken by @LFC_Bitcoin, so I went with the closest one.</sup>

Reason/formula:

• I based everything on 2013/2017 BTCitcoin's value ^{[specifically the first day in June and December]}, then calculated the downtrend growth in those periods.
  
  
  • Jun,1,2013 = $89.53
    Dec,1,2013 = $732
    732/89.53 = 8.17 growth
    
    Jun,1,2017 = $2,465.49
    Dec,1,2017 = $13,880
    13,880/2,465.49 = 5.62 growth
    
    Jun,1,2021 = $33,130.33
    Dec,7,2021 = ?
    Growth = ?
    
    • 8.17 ^[2013] - 5.62 ^[2017] = 2.55 ^{[possible growth in 2021 (Jun - Dec)]}
      33,130.33 x 2.55 = $84,482.34 ^[Dec,7,2021]

[Wekkel]

my prediction is $120,001.

Based on factors.

$65k intermediate top
$30k low (factor 0.5x)
$120k (and going up) factor 4x

[psycodad]

EDIT:
$88888 - box 262 if I read that right.

$86888 - box 261, after finally understanding the rules  

The exact number above is of course just made up, I just like to have a lot of 8s (wait, don't read that out loud, it could sound misleading..)
Still I think (read: I desperately hope) the price to end up between 80k and 90k by about that time.

I believe needed retail demand is currently scared a lot by the dirty Bitcoin, Bitcoin destroying the environment, we need PoS coz it's good for the panda bears etc. narrative.
Would that not have happened (the whole kerfuffle that was started by some assburger person whom we don't mention here so not to further boost his unstable ego), my estimate would be in the $120-150k area for that time. So many bullish news currently that seem not to move the price just because of the environmental concerns that have been loudly voiced lately by self-appointed opinion makers and wanna-be leaders.
El Salvador looks like big time good news to me that just hasn't made the headlines it deserves yet. This could be big and a lot of similar shaped countries could follow soon. Once the public perception changes away from dirty crims money, retail will be happy again to enter the market. I expected this to take a lot of time, but China exiting the mining market is great news and might speed things up a lot.

That said, I am totally sure about my prediction, just not about the point in time it will be reached  

Thanks to the Dude for these games, I don't intend / play to win actually, but it's a lot of fun and we need something to do while we wait for the Satoshi to be worth 1 USD cent.

Good luck to everybody with a prediction higher than mine, I sincerely hope you win  

[LoyceV]

I've updated the Prediction overview.
I've truncated a few predictions to remove the cents.

63000$ based on the chart.

$87,450

Stand by to receive data..........

Box 331 - $350,000 ($350k) please.

Please update your posts to fit this requirement:

I want to reach persons who cares to share there thinking reasoning, could be enjoyable for more people to read and maybe learn from... So to participate there must be somekind of effort why the price is chosen...

To participate there MUST be ......

If you edit your post, I'd appreciate a PM so I don't miss it.

Box 270. $102,345

Your prediction fits in box 269.

201. $26,242

Your prediction fits in box 200.

$ 22,580
I think this is Box 194.

Close, it's 193.

231. $47,534.56 - $48,485.24

I will take the box 239. $55,694.32 - $56,808.19

281. $127,943.46 - $130,502.32

Please predict an amount, not a range. And add your thinking reasoning as required by El duderino_. Note that your box was not reserved yet, if it's still available when you edit your post, please send me a PM so I don't miss it.

$300,500k I repeat again so you know it's not a mistake $300,500k

I think you made a mistake, lol: I've ignored the "k" behind your prediction, assuming you don't want to predict $300,500,000. If I'm wrong, please post and I'll put you in "uncharted territories".

290. $152,904.28 - $155,962.36
If you want an exact number use 152,904.28.

I truncate cents, so your entry becomes $152,904. That puts you in the previous box (289):

Code:

289. $149,906.16 - $152,904.27
290. $152,904.28 - $155,962.36

I will take Box 256. $77,985.49

Truncating to $77,985 puts you in box 255, which is taken. Please make another prediction. When you edit your post, please send me a PM so I don't miss it.

Box 239. 56400

Sorry, you can't join. You're not even close to the 250 earned Merit requirement.

~snip~

You have a Newbie warning Flag. Sorry, you can't join.

I only had this question is why the full members can't participate in this contest ?

El duderino_'s game, so his rules. See this topic. In short: the earned Merit requirement is to give established members a better chance, while reducing the chance of alt accounts joining.

I notice several users use the Stock to Flow model for their prediction, which apparently results in many different predictions.

[Charles-Tim]

201. $26,242

Your prediction fits in box 200.

Corrected. Thanks.

[HairyMaclairy]

$143,220

The reason is because we will peak at $186,00 in mid December 2021. At 7 December we are already going parabolic, but have only achieved 77% of the new ATH.  I have been calling for a top $186k for at least two years now.  



Box 286

Thanks Dude for the competition

[Tytanowy Janusz]

Thank you El duderino_ for this competition.
Thank you LoyceV for invitation

6 months from now ... Its super hard but lets try. First of all - is it the end of bull run?

I think that bubble that we've seen should not end up with 3 month consolidation. Thats not how bubble looks like. Every bitcoin bubble, dotcom bubble (tech bubbles), tulip bubble (dumb bubble), silver in 2011 ended with masive final spike - pure mania of street invesotrs and short squeez of early shorters.



I think that bitcoin was never stronger from fundamential point of view:

Bitcoin just started to eat its portion of corporate debt bubble cake

Until 2023 FED does not plan to rise interest rates. I assume that we should have 1.5 years more of "bubble of everything"

BTC was never an "alternative investment asset" during The Real Interest Rate being negative 5%.


https://www.longtermtrends.net/real-interest-rate/

It means that if you have $1M  in your bank account you are paying $4166 MONTHLY in inflation (in devaluation of your savings). Fking 4k! Treasury bonds or term deposits gives nothing (0-0,2%). People are desperate to find good investment. Last time it was like that in 1980! But in 1980 Debt to GDP wasnt at 140%

Until 2023 inflation will go to 20%. Everything will pump. Why BTC should dump? Only because of short term price action and scary looking chart? I guess that we are currently in massive shake out made by whale manipulation that will end sooner or later ... Maybe after testing 20k in next month? Maybe even now.

Now, that we know the direction that I think price will go its time for my price guess. Here I must say that I think that its impossible to estimate this. I just randomdraw how a strong recovery could look like and cut off December 7th (white line). Strong recovery because thats why I expect based on economic situation and bitcoin fundamentials.



Green line is a taproot activation. I think it will help recovery.

From this we have 44500 or 53300 (depends if we are going to test 20k or bottomed right now). If I was writing this post yesterday I would pick 44500 after testin 20k. Today, after strong recovery from 30k to 33k i'm closer to "we've seen bottom" verion. So after long story final bet is $53 300

[Kylapoiss]

Seven seven yo
I hope for the seven yo
But never win these

$57,777


Thanks dude for the competition once again! You sure are awesome!

Kisses&hugs

#nohomo

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Enjoying the uber bullish predictions (which are actually made by some of the most respected OG’s on the forum).
HairyMaclairy especially I have a lot of time for. Knowing him personally, away from the forum, this guy knows what he is talking about.

JimboToronto, you wiry old fox, I will pay for your drinks all weekend if/when we hit your price

[LoyceV]

$88888 - box 262 if I read that right.

Although "pending", this box is (currently) taken:

262. $87,450 jojo69 pending thinking reasoning
262. $88,888 psycodad box is taken

Can you pick a new prediction?

[psycodad]

$88888 - box 262 if I read that right.

Although "pending", this box is (currently) taken:

262. $87,450 jojo69 pending thinking reasoning
262. $88,888 psycodad box is taken

Can you pick a new prediction?

Ah, sorry and thanks for the heads-up.
I read the intro too fast obviously and initially thought multiple predictions within a box are allowed, more caffeine helped with that.
I have edited my post to claim box 261 with $86888 (<- still loads of 8s, so I am fine there, the general idea being $80-90k)

[DeathAngel]

Box 299 with an estimate of $183,000 if possible? Thanks for the opportunity El Duderino_ & also to LoyceV for managing the contest.

Edit - Apologies I forgot a reasoning. Basically the bull run is still alive, I think we will fall short of $288,000 (PlanB prediction). $183,000 seems possible.

[-doubleU-]

My prediction is:

Box 256: $77,985.49 - $79,545.19 -> 78,483.65$
I see in the actual Price only as a short Dip and i trust the Stock to flow Model. I think we see a fast climb to the previous ATH at the end of the year and a another run at the beginning of 2022.

[nelson4lov]

Box - 265.
$94,199

I haven't checked the charts because it's messy at the moment but the last time I checked, the trend was macro bullish in the mid-term. According to popular opinions and personal observations, the bull run isn't over yet and we would see new highs when markets get back on track. That said, The reason I'm going with box 265 is because; prior to bitcoin hitting $30k, 40k, etc all the way to $60k,  $100k has been seen as the number #1 milestone price for this bull run. But even if price would reach highs of $100k, it might as well just stop around $93K as sell orders would be piled up.