Bitcoin pumps/ dumps and altcoin price actions (2013 - 2020)

[tranthidung]

I took a few top and old altcoins for this dataset. If you need more, you can ask!

• Data source: https://coinmarketcap.com
• Price: is low of daily price
• Bitcoin pumps: % changes between 2 consecutive days >= 5%
• Bitcoin dump: % changes between 2 consecutive days <=  -5%

From pooya87's contribution, I think it is good to note his reminder here. Pumps and dumps here are defined with the above thresholds.

you are confusing the terms "rise and fall" with "pump and dump"

FINDINGS

• In 2020, so far, there are 14 pumps and 11 dumps (based on above definitions) from bitcoin
• Bitcoin does perform stronger than altcoins.
• When bitcoin pumps, altcoins increase less than bitcoin. (look at p50)
• When bitcoin dumps, altcoins fell deeper than bitcoin. (look at p50)
• Stable coins have same directions with bitcoin (bitcoin rises, stable coins increases and vice versa)

Overall

Easily to see that the time-series of pclowBTC is almost overlapped and covered by others. It means generally the percent changes of BTC are smaller than of altcoins (in this dataset).

For specific coin

Over specific years (I choose 3 years: 2018, 2019 and 2020)

Raw data for 2020
Pumps

Code:

    variable |         N      mean        sd       p50       p25       p75       min       max
-------------+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    pclowBTC |        14  8.900714  5.012295     7.455      6.34       9.6      5.11     24.79
   pclowDASH |        14  8.879286  9.402313     6.565      3.11      9.87     -1.29     31.02
    pclowETH |        14  8.196429  7.176675      5.13       4.2     11.84      -.63     28.61
    pclowLTC |        14  8.193571  7.878448     6.705      3.81      8.81      1.24     33.12
    pclowXLM |        14      5.93  7.630899       4.8      1.81      7.26     -1.35     29.71
    pclowXMR |        14      8.44  8.202507      6.62      3.94       9.6      -.16      33.3
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Dumps

Code:

    variable |         N      mean        sd       p50       p25       p75       min       max
-------------+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    pclowBTC |        11 -11.15818  9.042039     -8.83    -12.37     -5.39    -36.41     -5.12
   pclowDASH |        11 -14.24091  8.896276    -13.65    -19.06     -5.91    -33.95     -4.48
    pclowETH |        11 -12.79091  9.679633    -10.37    -14.41     -7.03    -39.68     -4.15
    pclowLTC |        11 -13.55909  8.184129    -13.92    -16.52      -8.5    -33.76     -4.21
    pclowXLM |        11 -12.02273  7.210211     -11.6    -14.65     -5.91    -30.62     -5.33
    pclowXMR |        11 -13.01364  8.834594    -11.82    -16.65     -6.36    -35.98     -5.97
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Code:

     +----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
     |      date   pclowBTC   pclowETH   pclowD~H   pclowXMR   pclowXLM   pclowLTC     pc_cat |
     |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  1. | 04jan2020       5.71       5.18       7.44        9.6       1.81       6.29   BTC pump |
  2. | 15jan2020       6.34      11.84      27.36       7.35       6.19      13.04   BTC pump |
  3. | 14mar2020      24.79      28.61      31.02       33.3      29.71      33.12   BTC pump |
  4. | 17mar2020       8.89       4.98       8.13      12.78       7.64       7.12   BTC pump |
  5. | 20mar2020      12.01       6.87       11.7       4.45       3.08       5.58   BTC pump |
  6. | 24mar2020      10.82       9.27       9.67      14.22       7.26       8.05   BTC pump |
  7. | 31mar2020       7.98       5.08       5.69       5.89       5.72       3.81   BTC pump |
  8. | 02apr2020       6.35       4.62       4.17        3.2       3.17       4.81   BTC pump |
  9. | 07apr2020       5.22      14.39       5.46       3.94       9.66       8.81   BTC pump |
 10. | 17apr2020       7.55       12.9       9.87       8.18       7.07       8.81   BTC pump |
 11. | 30apr2020        9.6        4.2      -1.29       -.16      -1.18       1.24   BTC pump |
 12. | 08may2020       6.88       3.35        .79       8.99        .36       3.55   BTC pump |
 13. | 14may2020       5.11       4.09       1.19       2.05      -1.35       1.26   BTC pump |
 14. | 28jul2020       7.36       -.63       3.11       4.37       3.88       9.22   BTC pump |
     |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
 15. | 26feb2020      -6.45     -10.37     -15.62      -8.44     -11.59      -16.4   BTC dump |
 16. | 08mar2020      -8.83     -15.55     -15.32     -13.91     -13.11      -14.5   BTC dump |
 17. | 09mar2020      -5.12      -4.15       -7.8      -6.54       -5.6       -8.6   BTC dump |
 18. | 12mar2020     -36.41     -39.68     -33.95     -35.98     -30.62     -33.76   BTC dump |
 19. | 13mar2020      -15.5     -14.41     -23.33     -18.92      -14.8     -16.52   BTC dump |
 20. | 16mar2020     -11.49     -13.69     -13.65     -16.65      -11.6      -10.5   BTC dump |
 21. | 28mar2020      -5.39      -5.21      -5.91      -6.27      -5.33       -4.6   BTC dump |
 22. | 10apr2020      -5.25      -7.79      -4.48      -6.36      -6.21       -8.5   BTC dump |
 23. | 10may2020     -12.37     -12.61     -12.48     -11.82     -14.65     -13.92   BTC dump |
 24. | 21may2020      -6.11      -7.03      -5.05      -5.97      -5.91      -4.21   BTC dump |
 25. | 03sep2020      -9.82     -10.21     -19.06     -12.29     -12.83     -17.64   BTC dump |
     +----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+

Stable coins

• Stable coins rise with BTC pumps.
• Stable coins drop with BTC dumps.
• Box plot shows this fact clearly but you can also see summary statistics.

Plot

Summary
Pumps

Code:

    variable |         N      mean        sd       p50       p25       p75       min       max
-------------+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    pclowBTC |        14  8.900714  5.012295     7.455      6.34       9.6      5.11     24.79
   pclowUSDT |        14  1.111429  2.787634      .465      -.04      1.13     -2.25     10.11
   pclowTUSD |        14  .6878571  1.596969      .485        .1       1.1     -2.52      4.89
   pclowGUSD |        14  .5564286  3.719135       .44      -.82       2.9     -8.38      7.39
    pclowPAX |        14  1.365714  3.456066      .645      -.01      1.36     -2.56     12.74
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Dumps

Code:

    variable |         N      mean        sd       p50       p25       p75       min       max
-------------+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    pclowBTC |        11 -11.15818  9.042039     -8.83    -12.37     -5.39    -36.41     -5.12
   pclowUSDT |        11 -1.203636  2.118496      -.64      -1.4       .04     -7.09       .13
   pclowTUSD |        11 -.9009091  1.614407      -.23     -1.68      -.06     -4.63       .77
   pclowGUSD |        11 -1.127273  4.566285     -1.04      -2.5       .45    -12.24      7.13
    pclowPAX |        11 -1.301818   2.93102      -.21     -1.84        .2     -9.56       .39
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Raw data

Code:

     +--------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
     |      date   pclowBTC   pclowUSDT   pclowTUSD   pclowGUSD   pclowPAX     pc_cat |
     |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  1. | 30apr2020        9.6         .03         .42        -.82        .23   BTC pump |
  2. | 15jan2020       6.34        -.09        -.01        -.43       -.22   BTC pump |
  3. | 31mar2020       7.98         .35         .22         2.9        .86   BTC pump |
  4. | 14may2020       5.11        -.15        -.32         4.9       -.01   BTC pump |
  5. | 02apr2020       6.35         .67         1.1        -.99       1.42   BTC pump |
  6. | 20mar2020      12.01        1.05         .68       -8.38       1.36   BTC pump |
  7. | 14mar2020      24.79       10.11        4.89        7.39      12.74   BTC pump |
  8. | 24mar2020      10.82        2.31        2.11         .59       2.08   BTC pump |
  9. | 07apr2020       5.22        -.04          .1       -2.92       -.04   BTC pump |
 10. | 28jul2020       7.36          .4         .13         .52         .3   BTC pump |
 11. | 17mar2020       8.89       -2.25       -2.52        3.91      -2.56   BTC pump |
 12. | 08may2020       6.88         .53         .55         .06        .43   BTC pump |
 13. | 17apr2020       7.55        1.51         1.4          .7       1.17   BTC pump |
 14. | 04jan2020       5.71        1.13         .88         .36       1.36   BTC pump |
     |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
 15. | 09mar2020      -5.12        -.67         .08       -1.59       -.26   BTC dump |
 16. | 08mar2020      -8.83         .06        -.23       -1.33         .2   BTC dump |
 17. | 16mar2020     -11.49        -1.4       -1.68       -2.52      -1.84   BTC dump |
 18. | 26feb2020      -6.45        -.01        -.06       -1.04        .18   BTC dump |
 19. | 28mar2020      -5.39         .13         .77        -2.5        .39   BTC dump |
 20. | 21may2020      -6.11        -.18        -.12        7.13        .25   BTC dump |
 21. | 03sep2020      -9.82        -.64        -.16         .45       -.21   BTC dump |
 22. | 10may2020     -12.37        -.84        -.46        -.66        -.5   BTC dump |
 23. | 13mar2020      -15.5       -7.09       -3.12        1.79      -9.56   BTC dump |
 24. | 10apr2020      -5.25         .04         -.3         .11        .05   BTC dump |
 25. | 12mar2020     -36.41       -2.64       -4.63      -12.24      -3.02   BTC dump |
     +--------------------------------------------------------------------------------+

[1714747248]

1714747248

[1714747248]

1714747248

[1714747248]

1714747248

[tranthidung]

Reserved

[tranthidung]

Reserved

[tranthidung]

Reserved

[pooya87]

In 2020, so far, there are 14 pumps and 11 dumps (based on above definitions) from bitcoin[/li][/list]

you are confusing the terms "rise and fall" with "pump and dump"

• Bitcoin does perform stronger than altcoins.

that's because unlike altcoins bitcoin is not pump and dumping!

• When bitcoin pumps, altcoins increase less than bitcoin. (look at p50)
• When bitcoin dumps, altcoins fell deeper than bitcoin. (look at p50)

now look at their price against bitcoin and you will see that no matter if bitcoin rises or falls, altcoins are always dumping. (unless they have dedicated powerful pumping teams or some stand alone pumping hype going on).

• Stable coins have same directions with bitcoin (bitcoin rises, stable coins increases and vice versa)

if a stable coins increases or decreases in value then it no longer is a stable coin!
their volume and amount printed increase during the altcoin pumping seasons because they are used mainly in altcoin market.

[tranthidung]

you are confusing the terms "rise and fall" with "pump and dump"

I am not. I emphasized in OP by clearly giving variable definitions. Anyway, thank you for the link that I gonna read it.

I noted your contribution in OP. Thanks. 

• Bitcoin pumps: % changes between 2 consecutive days >= 5%
• Bitcoin dump: % changes between 2 consecutive days <=  -5%

that's because unlike altcoins bitcoin is not pump and dumping!

I agree but I what I want to say is altcoins are suffered double pressure, from bitcoin price and from altcoin investors' uncertainty.

now look at their price against bitcoin and you will see that no matter if bitcoin rises or falls, altcoins are always dumping. (unless they have dedicated powerful pumping teams or some stand alone pumping hype going on).

I said about it in OP. Bitcoin rises, altcoins rise but rise less. Bitcoin falls, altcoins fall deeper. Statistics in OP are for bitcoin pumps/ dumps with my variable definitions. You can consider it as pumps/ rises or dumps/ falls, just pay attention on the threshold +5% or -5% I used.

if a stable coins increases or decreases in value then it no longer is a stable coin!
their volume and amount printed increase during the altcoin pumping seasons because they are used mainly in altcoin market.

Again, it is what I wanted to find and demonstrate with data. With summary stats, we can have clearer things to discuss (I always tried to bring data do discuss, if I can).

For now, let's ignore shady things behind stable coins (unlimited minting, etc.) and only look at price changes (in %). They are not actually stable if looking at p50, min and max values. Max of increase is at 12.74% and min of decrease is at -12.24%.

This has not yet taken into consideration the real trading price of 'stable coins' on marketplaces, locally. For local trades, things are much more different (wider range of changes).

[tranthidung]

How about altcoin price actions in this amazing run of bitcoin? 

[lifeforcepools]

Thank you, very graphic, there is something to think about.

[tranthidung]

I make this post not to bring more panic feeling to you. The screenshot is taken from https://coin360.com/

People are extremely fearful now. The Fear and Greed Index is free-falling to 15 today.