Reality Check on Crypto

[o_e_l_e_o]

That's an unusable currency that doesn't allow for any type of long term planning because volatility is a terrible quality for a currency to have.  The inability to plan long term is a death knell for any economy.

And yet, long term, bitcoin has only ever gone up while USD has only ever gone down.

Yes, there is a large amount of short term volatility in bitcoin, due to the fact that it is a tiny market with a tiny number of users. A single user with a large enough stack has enough power to move the market enough to trigger a bunch of bots or stop losses or whatever, resulting in significant price shifts. As a market grows, this becomes less possible, and with far greater numbers of buyers and seller clustering up around the current market price, then volatility lessens dramatically.

Using volatility as an argument against why bitcoin cannot scale as a currency is completely missing the point that volatility is inherent to small markets and assets.

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[kryptqnick]

Sometimes, this forum thinks that the rest of the world will flock to Bitcoin in droves because of its qualities.

Some people think that every potential user/investor will care about its decentralized features or its high value.

Well, it is not the case.

The people who go to BitcoinTalk are not the average investor: they are interested enough in crypto to make an account here.

It is not the posters you talk to, but the invisible lurkers who may be reading this very post.

I agree about decentralization (most don't care about it), but I wonder if the next two points really make sense. In the first world, most users are indeed doing well with the current financial system, but are most crypto users in the 1st world? The data varies, but the most comprehensive piece I found is this one, where, by a total number of crypto owners, the top-10 countries are India, the USA, Russia, Nigeria, Vietnam, Ukraine, Kenya, South Africa, Colombia, and Venezuela. Clearly, the majority of countries are far from 1st world, and the majority of users (top-10 accounts for around 85% of crypto owners) as well. As for #3, info like that definitely needs to be supported with sources. I couldn't find data on volatility specifically, but I found a recent poll, and people explained there why they invest in cryptos. Top results are easy trading, excitement, potential short-term growth, which are all associated with volatility IMO.

[LoyceV]

In the first world, most users are indeed doing well with the current financial system

It depends on what you mean by "doing well":
If you mean I have a bank account with a working debit card that I can use to buy groceries, then yes, I'm doing well.
But if you mean a financial system that protects my money from inflation and doesn't cause a financial crisis because it's based on debt, then no, I'm not doing well at all!

The data varies, but the most comprehensive piece I found is this one

It can't be right: I already have my doubt about "300 million crypto users", considering there are only 38 million funded Bitcoin addresses. One could argue what "ownership" means if they keep it on exchanges (or in shitcoins), so it may be plausible to reach 300 million. But it continues: "36% have an annual income over US$100k", which would mean more than 100 million crypto owners earn over $100k. That seems a bit high considering most of them live in poor countries.

[BIT-BENDER]

This is really a strong message! Look at the nocoiner standing there, ...

Umm. Is that sarcasm? That's Vitalik, and he's hardly a "no-coiner".

On the other hand, I disagree with his conclusion based on what most users think. I think it overlooks the effects of adoption.

I don't think the OP knows who Vitalik is or what he has contributed to crypto-currency with ethereum and also his partial contributions to Bitcoin, maybe he is looking like a random workshop lecturer.
Although I think that image may not really portray what we think it is, he may be analysing some frequent questions by people, or he is explaining those key points in his own thoughts, regardless I have so much respect for Vitalik and all his contributions.

[electronicash]

This is really a strong message! Look at the nocoiner standing there, ...

Umm. Is that sarcasm? That's Vitalik, and he's hardly a "no-coiner".

On the other hand, I disagree with his conclusion based on what most users think. I think it overlooks the effects of adoption.

I don't think the OP knows who Vitalik is or what he has contributed to crypto-currency with ethereum and also his partial contributions to Bitcoin, maybe he is looking like a random workshop lecturer.
Although I think that image may not really portray what we think it is, he may be analysing some frequent questions by people, or he is explaining those key points in his own thoughts, regardless I have so much respect for Vitalik and all his contributions.

its his prediction that BTC will never be substantially used but being used now, living proof that governments are considering to use it. but vitalik is right on the first one which ideology of decentralization is not what most of the investors come to crypto. what can we say its the profit that people want. you can never live without money in this world.

speculating price is what its for when it comes to currency and BTC or any other cryptocurrency is currency we speculate.

[o_e_l_e_o]

So I found the presentation where this slide was taken from: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tjxkdniYtkc&t=658s. It was at the Ethereum London meetup in October of 2014. Interestingly, he immediately goes on to say that he is holding bitcoin because he thinks there is a very small change of it hitting $17,000, while the current price is $298. The rest of his presentation goes on to (fairly unsurprisingly) make the case for a decentralized base layer which other people can use to build their own projects and services on top of. The whole point of the presentation is get people interested in, and maybe to invest in, Ethereum.

[Lucius]

It doesn't surprise me at all what the inventor of one altcoin thinks about Bitcoin, because he, like all other inventors, intended to do something that would be better than Bitcoin, and so far everyone has been unsuccessful. Therefore, every statement of the VB should be viewed in that context, because everything else has no logic.

Three years ago, there was a story that he would do something like Satoshi and disappear, thus decentralizing his project - but we all know that these are just stories for small children.

The most popular discussion topic is Buterin’s vision for “Ethereum 2.0,” a future iteration meant to be capable of operating efficiently at a much larger scale—and appeal to a much broader user base—than it can today. But in a conversation with MIT Technology Review on the sidelines of Devcon, Buterin said it’s time for him to start fading into the background as “a necessary part of the growth of the community.”

[Silberman]

Sometimes, this forum thinks that the rest of the world will flock to Bitcoin in droves because of its qualities.

Some people think that every potential user/investor will care about its decentralized features or its high value.

Well, it is not the case.

The people who go to BitcoinTalk are not the average investor: they are interested enough in crypto to make an account here.

It is not the posters you talk to, but the invisible lurkers who may be reading this very post.

They do not appreciate those qualities right now because they do not see the need, but ask people in countries where inflation is out of control and people are using bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies to protect themselves and we will see they appreciate the fact that governments do not own those cryptocurrencies and the fact they cannot create them at will, so give it time, the fiat system will fall, this is not a prediction it is inevitable, no one knows when it will happen but it will and when it does I can assure you people will love the decentralized nature of bitcoin.

[_Miracle]

used Bitcointalk to promote his own premined shitcoin, and left right after. He started strong with "code is law", and abandoned that too when he and his friends lost their coins in a smart contract they didn't understand. They even called the only person who understood the contract "the attacker" and hardforked their centralized coin, thereby abandoning the one USP they had.
Ethereum got big selling tokens for ICO-scams that spammed all over the internet.

Decentralized contracts were (still are) of interest but the hard-fork reminded me that I didn't know enough to be comfortable putting something like a trust or other valuable contracts on an ETH token.

I've spent bitcoin so in reality it has already worked as a peer to peer payment system.

[Ultegra134]

While I get this presentation's point of view, I'm trying to enjoy the benefits of cryptocurrencies. Yes, I'm served just fine by the traditional banking system, I don't have any issues or complaints, however, I have two separate wallets with funds that are not visible to any banking system, it's money I've earned and invested, something that is easily accessible through cryptocurrency.

On top of that, especially now with DeFi and BSC, there are even decentralized exchanges, for those who are all about decentralization, I'm not, but it's a nice feature to have. I'm not a decentralization advocate, but I definitely appreciate its immense possibilities. Furthermore, price volatility is what makes cryptocurrencies challenging and interesting, if you have the experience (and luck), the profit margins can be vast.

On the other hand, I'm 50/50 on the last point, since in the past, I'd use Bitcoin for the purchase of digital goods, however, due to its value, I'd refrain from doing it in the future.

[Anonylz]

Likewise, in regards to being served by the financial institution, they aren't perfect in providing their services but still useful to some extent, I can agree with the first part of the post, most people who invested in btc are less concerned about it's decentralise nature and more about profit making, reason while they dislike price volatility, the moment the price is in uptrend people seem to be happy, it is a clear indication where the majority of interest lies.

[eaLiTy]

Sometimes, this forum thinks that the rest of the world will flock to Bitcoin in droves because of its qualities.

Some people think that every potential user/investor will care about its decentralized features or its high value.

If anyone thinks that every investor in the cryptocurrency market really care about the technical aspect of a project, then it is a wrong concept as majority are here to make a quick profit and they will move on to other ones once they book their profit.

Since you added a poster of Vitalik Buterin, he was always boosting his invention of ETH and he always claimed that it will solve the problems BTCitcoin will never solve from the start and always mocking and now what happens to their scaling project is a comical tragedy as users are spending huge amount in transaction fees because of their inability to scale and still look at their valuation as they are soaring despite their higher transaction valuation.

[finaleshot2016]

Sometimes, this forum thinks that the rest of the world will flock to Bitcoin in droves because of its qualities.

Some people think that every potential user/investor will care about its decentralized features or its high value.

If anyone thinks that every investor in the cryptocurrency market really care about the technical aspect of a project, then it is a wrong concept as majority are here to make a quick profit and they will move on to other ones once they book their profit.

Since you added a poster of Vitalik Buterin, he was always boosting his invention of ETH and he always claimed that it will solve the problems BTCitcoin will never solve from the start and always mocking and now what happens to their scaling project is a comical tragedy as users are spending huge amount in transaction fees because of their inability to scale and still look at their valuation as they are soaring despite their higher transaction valuation.

True, some ETH transactions, particularly NFTs, are already worth hundreds of dollars! Consider that money is already large for certain people, particularly those from third-world nations, therefore it's not a beginner-friendly network, which is why BSC is utilized more than other platforms when it comes to NFTs and other pump and dump schemes. Even though they have already announced the ETH 2.0, it still takes a long time because there are so many cryptocurrency users right now; it should have been done in previous years as they experienced scaling issues in 2017-18; I know it's not easy, but look at TRON and BSC, which are more efficient to newcomers.

[dezoel]

It is quite wrong presentation and I am fine with it. There could be a lot of people who could hate bitcoin and I would be very fine with it because in the end I am the one profiting and they are the one missing out. Let the people who dislike bitcoin and doubt it keep on doing that while we reek in the cash. I have been working full-time in crypto for over 5 years now, and I have never been happier, and I have never been richer.

This month I am probably going to earn the biggest amount of money I have ever made in my life, and it was sort of true last month as well. So all in all, I keep making more and more money, save more and more, and profit more as well so it has been an amazing ride. Compared to what I made 5 years ago, I am making insanely higher amount of money right now, probably 10x more. This is why I let all those who doubt bitcoin be wrong and not care enough to correct them, let them be what they want because they are the ones who are missing out.

[CryptocurencyKing]

Sometimes, this forum thinks that the rest of the world will flock to Bitcoin in droves because of its qualities.

Some people think that every potential user/investor will care about its decentralized features or its high value.

I like to think that too. I'm glad you basically pointed out a few things, 'it's qualities and high value'. One thing I'm not so sure of is the rest of the world flocking to bitcoin, no, not at all. I would say, just enough to make it real and by that, I mean governments of nations inclusive then, the platform would be all set.

People like qualities and what has got qualities have got some real value . Little wonder how gold has been in business and still, not all people in the world are into acquiring it. Same as well applies to bitcoin. Its not about all people but just enough people to keep it going.

[GubiMixa1292]

The crypto adopters who pushed the price too high don't really care about decentralization. The hard truth is that most crypto enthusiasts are just FOMO trying to get rich. I feel like a lot of people still don't understand the potential future value of cryptocurrencies, and you're trying. Trying to talk about in this photo step all i see is denial in your posts  . everyone has different desires and goals it seems that BTC is too volatile and this is still apprehensive of some countries especially people in El Salvador they have had protests against acceptance of BTC as paid currency, Imagine if every month you work and the price of BTC drops 2% paying in BTC for living expenses is very difficult for some people in El Salvador.

[blockman]

Coming from the presentation of Vitalik, I'm surprised to see what he's saying about bitcoin. Did he really make that presentation or someone has made it for him to present? And what about Ethereum, does he tell that Ethereum is much more of a unit of account than bitcoin?
So if this presentation was in the past and he's selling Ethereum to people invest in bitcoin. I hope that he'll start taking back what he has said about bitcoin on this presentation then.

[tbterryboy]

Well he did make some points there that are true. First of all the one he said that most users of Bitcoin dislike the price volatility: it is true that a lot of people you’re going to talk to about Bitcoin are not going to like the volatility part of it, so they are going to avoid it.

I am saying this with experience, because 90% of the people I would talk to about Bitcoin always lose interest when you talk about the volatility part of it, they are not ready to take that risk. And next, the part that most users are not ideological decentralization advocates, that is also true. You don’t really need anyone to tell you about that one, unless things are going to change in the future.

[DrBeer]

I agree about decentralization (most don't care about it), but I wonder if the next two points really make sense. In the first world, most users are indeed doing well with the current financial system, but are most crypto users in the 1st world? The data varies, but the most comprehensive piece I found is this one, where, by a total number of crypto owners, the top-10 countries are India, the USA, Russia, Nigeria, Vietnam, Ukraine, Kenya, South Africa, Colombia, and Venezuela. Clearly, the majority of countries are far from 1st world, and the majority of users (top-10 accounts for around 85% of crypto owners) as well. As for #3, info like that definitely needs to be supported with sources. I couldn't find data on volatility specifically, but I found a recent poll, and people explained there why they invest in cryptos. Top results are easy trading, excitement, potential short-term growth, which are all associated with volatility IMO.

Does this distribution tell you why this is so? Everything is quite simple - this is a list of countries where there is no good financial regulation, where there are "gaps" in the legislative base, where there is corruption, there is no desire to formalize some processes. The USA is probably on this list as one of the most technologically advanced

[Silberman]

Likewise, in regards to being served by the financial institution, they aren't perfect in providing their services but still useful to some extent, I can agree with the first part of the post, most people who invested in btc are less concerned about it's decentralise nature and more about profit making, reason while they dislike price volatility, the moment the price is in uptrend people seem to be happy, it is a clear indication where the majority of interest lies.

We have known this for a very long time, the average investor is here for the profits they can make and nothing more, however this is not bad in itself, people do this all the time, they begin to do something for a reason and then they find many other reasons to keep doing that activity, I am convinced that many of those people that are only looking for profits will come to appreciate the other characteristics of bitcoin and will eventually become to use it in their everyday lives.