[Chart] Old resistance to become new support?

[dragonvslinux]

Looking at the current price structure of Bitcoin, it seems like a good chance the the 0.618 fib retracement level around $53K will be re-tested before continuing the healthy uptrend. Similar to September, price corrected back down to the strong volume support zone (and previous resistance) of $40K from $53K with a 25% correction (to turn it into new support) after an 80% increase.



To me it seems likely that a 20% correction to the low $50Ks will now take place after a 70% increase, also lining up nicely with the 50 Day MA that's rising in a bullish manner. I also don't doubt that price could have already established a local low and continue up from here, but if recent price history is anything to go by, the healthy correction may continue a little longer before finding a new ATH in November.

What are your thoughts, is the bottom already in or does price a little further down to go before new ATHs?

So my initial theory a month ago that Bitcoin would re-test the 0.618 fib retracement level after $65K was re-tested was flawed, given price shortly after moved higher.

Regardless of the time-based inaccuracy, the fractal itself however remains very relevant it seems taken from the $69K new ATH, now that price has re-tested the 0.618:

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[suchmoon]

To me it seems likely that a 20% correction [...] will now take place

I also don't doubt that price could [...] continue up from here

So... no doubt up but likely down?

You seem to have overdone the typical astrology tea leaves TA fence straddling.

[dragonvslinux]

So... no doubt up but likely down?

Not no doubt up no, hence: question mark, reference of "good chance" and "seems likely". However I understand how my own perception of statistical probability can be too complicated to comprehend for some 

My opinion is most likely up in the mid to long-term yes. Unless it's the first time Bitcoin makes a macro double top after 6 months of consolidation, which has never happened before, so I'd give this a low likelihood, though obviously possible. It's also possible that price corrects 80% from here or goes to 0 by the end of the year, but again, I'd also put a very low likelihood of this occurring as well.

You seem to have overdone the typical astrology tea leaves TA fence straddling.

I wouldn't say I'm on the fence what so ever no. This would mean I'm 50-50 on whether price goes up or down, short, mid and long-term, which isn't what I'm suggesting what-so-ever.

I'm theorising that price will go a bit further down in the short-term, followed by new ATH in the long-term.

TL:DR: Short-term bit bearish, mid-long term remains extremely bullish. Make sense to you?
(I understand that different multi-timeframe analysis can be complicated for people, I apologise)

[Gozie51]

I don't doubt repetition of trend and market pattern to happen but to rely on September and speculate for November or December of 2021 may not be followed. This year is having a different move totally different. For example we have had two powerful ATH unlike 2017 and now we are still expecting another over take of ATH.

[suchmoon]

~

Nice attempt with a passive-aggressive dig at my intelligence but the parts I quoted are in direct contradiction and forecast opposite directions at this moment in time ("correction [...] will now take place" and "continue up from here") with one of them being qualified as you having no doubt about it.

It could be simple typo, maybe you meant "from there" and maybe something less definitive than "don't doubt", but I guess we'll never know.

[dragonvslinux]

So... no doubt up but likely down?

Not no doubt up no, hence: question mark, reference of "good chance" and "seems likely". However I understand how my own perception of statistical probability can be too complicated to comprehend for some  

My opinion is most likely up in the mid to long-term yes. Unless it's the first time Bitcoin makes a macro double top after 6 months of consolidation, which has never happened before, so I'd give this a low likelihood, though obviously possible. It's also possible that price corrects 80% from here or goes to 0 by the end of the year, but again, I'd also put a very low likelihood of this occurring as well.

You seem to have overdone the typical astrology tea leaves TA fence straddling.

I wouldn't say I'm on the fence what so ever no. This would mean I'm 50-50 on whether price goes up or down, short, mid and long-term, which isn't what I'm suggesting what-so-ever.

I'm theorising that price will go a bit further down in the short-term, followed by new ATH in the long-term.

TL:DR: Short-term bit bearish, mid-long term remains extremely bullish. Make sense to you?
(I understand that different multi-timeframe analysis can be complicated for people, I apologise)

Nice attempt with a passive-aggressive dig at my intelligence but the parts I quoted are in direct contradiction and forecast opposite directions at this moment in time ("correction [...] will now take place" and "continue up from here") with one of them being qualified as you having no doubt about it.

It could be simple typo, maybe you meant "from there" and maybe something less definitive than "don't doubt", but I guess we'll never know.

I recommend you just read the full sentences properly instead of cherry picking words to try and distort the overall analysis, than I won't have to further insult your so-called intelligence within this discourse.

"To me it seems likely that a 20% correction to the low $50Ks will now take place"

"I also don't doubt that price could... continue up from here"

So to break my analysis down for you into bite size chunks.

1) I believe the most likely direction is now a bit further down towards low $50Ks, before reaching ATH
2) I don't doubt that (1) could be wrong, and we continue upwards, it's still a relatively high probability
=> Translation: I'm certain that (1) could be wrong and the low is already in*
3) I haven't referenced the possibility of the high being in, I believe the probability is too low

*Can I be certain that something could happen? You bet! This is probably the only thing you can be certain about: a possibility being possible.
Similarly I could claim to be certain that something won't happen, though I never claim absolute certainty, only high or low probabilities.
Hopefully this is educational in understanding how probabilities are only as probable as their outcomes, and never certainties.

The relevance is I'm not implying a high probability that price falls to $50Ks, but that it is marginally more likely at this point of price and market structure.
Around 60-70% chance at best. Probably 70-75% if price drops below $57K (middle of nowhere), depending on how it get's there.
The more relevant aspect should be not whether price goes lower, but if it does, then where is it most likely to stop.

Most people just want to hear if price is 100% going up or 100% going down, without any comprehension of how probabilities or different time-frames work  
Many users here fortunately heavily criticise these opinions, including myself. Hence I prefer to remain objective, by considering multiple outcomes.

Last time we had a dip I gave it 70% likelihood that price would fall to $40K after $50K was broken, and that it would hold, after the not so bullish golden cross ✔️
The time before was that $37.5K would become new support after $40K was broken to the upside, with similar high enough probability ✔️
Previously I had similar likelihood that $57.5K would hold in the short-term as strong resistance as the previous distribution zone ❌
Fortunately based on my risk/reward I don't need to be right all the time, only the majority of the time ✔️
This time I'm not claiming such high likelihood that we need to correct to support, but a lower chance❓

This is merely my analysis for risk/reward basis (that in the short-term looks low at the moment) as well as balancing portfolios etc, obviously not trade-able analysis at present on shorter-term time-frames, which should be obvious. Ie if you are currently on the fence at the moment as to whether to take profit or buy the dip, my suggestion is stay on it for now (while at resistance, as per usual) until a better opportunity comes around. Believe it or not, it's as important (if not more important) to know when to enter and exit positions (when trading), as well as when not to. The former can make money, the latter can help to preserve it.

[suchmoon]

~

I would have just replaced "don't doubt" with "think it's very likely" or some such less-than-100%-certain construct if that's what you meant.

[dragonvslinux]

~

I would have just replaced "don't doubt" with "think it's very likely" or some such less-than-100%-certain construct if that's what you meant.

But I don't think "very likely" at all? More "totally possible". Hence, not doubting the low could already be in. Very different.

[el kaka22]

That's exactly how it happens, each and every single time. I know that there are exceptions but exceptions are not the rule. Most of the time when a price has a hard time breaking a level, then it becomes easier to not go under that price after a while. This takes time of course, like we passed $40k+ for a while now, and $40k+ is a big big support now, we had so much difficulty passing that for months, same thing right?

Well, same is happening now to $50k, been a while since we are over $50k, and that is becoming a support. Just wait and see, if we do not drop under $60k for a while, we are going to end up seeing that becoming a support as well, it is always the same story.

[suchmoon]

But I don't think "very likely" at all? More "totally possible". Hence, not doubting the low could already be in. Very different.

Just in case you'd want to make yourself comprehensible to low-intelligence English-speaking muggles:

"don't doubt" or "certain" == 100%
"likely" or "probable" > 50%
"possible" > 0%

[dragonvslinux]

But I don't think "very likely" at all? More "totally possible". Hence, not doubting the low could already be in. Very different.

Just in case you'd want to make yourself comprehensible to low-intelligence English-speaking muggles:

"don't doubt" or "certain" == 100%
"likely" or "probable" > 50%
"possible" > 0%

Fair enough, I will bare it in mind, appreciated. For educational purposes:

"don't doubt" + "could" == <50%

Anything else?

[dragonvslinux]

Currently at a critical point in the chart it seems. The short-term bear flag to lower prices has been invalidated, and price is back above the local trading volume accumulation/distribution zone. Renaming above this would confirm it as accumulation, moving above $64K would most likely bring about a re-test of ATH. Until there is confirmation above $64K, I'm slightly bullish, but only 55-45 at best.



Getting rejected again at current prices would likely re-test the support zone, where price may still re-test the 50 Day MA that's rising fast in bullish form:



Note, despite the bullish recovery since July, the 200 Day MA has yet to confirm full bull market conditions on the Daily time-frame, as it continues to be flat.
I don't think this means that we'll re-visit these prices, but prior to the bull market returning and new ATHs, it wouldn't be surprising to first see this popular MA rising with the rest.

[STT]

I did think the 50k significant enough to occur, I just dont know there is that much selling pressure especially with inflation now confirmed and possibly slipping forward continually making dollar weaker and so helping BTC improve higher.   However Dollar index is up some ironically but I guess we dont know yet.
    In the immediate term, I think price does better above the weekly average and we have maintained 65k  .  If we do lose that area and the moving average then perhaps weaker action occurs, for now I think it can test higher and only if failing would wider targets like 53k or similar be fair to rate as more probable then now during a bullish trend unlikely.

re-test the 50 Day MA that's rising fast in bullish form

Does seem an obvious future test, but that occuring in December sometime is alot different to now.

[dragonvslinux]

I did think the 50k significant enough to occur, I just dont know there is that much selling pressure especially with inflation now confirmed and possibly slipping forward continually making dollar weaker and so helping BTC improve higher.   However Dollar index is up some ironically but I guess we dont know yet.

Personally I considered the likelihood of low $50Ks to be invalidated over a week ago, if price were to break above $64K given the bearish fractal was broken.
Then re-test of ATH was the most likely outcome, which is exactly what we saw.

The short-term bear flag to lower prices has been invalidated... Renaming above this would confirm it as accumulation, moving above $64K would most likely bring about a re-test of ATH.

Now we can see how this same level - $64K - has acted as support for the past few days, as well as the 21 Day MA, despite falling below this level on a 4hr chart. The local accumulation level is $60K-62.5K after a few weeks of trading in this price range. Hence price finding support from the the top of this at $62.5K to confirm it as support, despite falling below $64K.



As long as price doesn't get rejected at the current level (original 2021 ATH price), then another re-test of ATH is the most likely outcome. On the 4hr, price didn't even reach the 200 MA before finding buying pressure which is a bullish sign. The naivety of traders & investors concerned about the double or triple top possibility is additionally a bullish sign to me, as confirms lack of confidence in the market, as opposed to too much greed.

In the immediate term, I think price does better above the weekly average and we have maintained 65k  .  If we do lose that area and the moving average then perhaps weaker action occurs, for now I think it can test higher and only if failing would wider targets like 53k or similar be fair to rate as more probable then now during a bullish trend unlikely.

Now the 50 Day MA has risen from $53K to $57K in recent weeks, for me this means high $50Ks would be the most likely price find would find support if it were to get rejected at $64K-65K and therefore break below $60K. This also lines up nicely with the 0.618 fib retracement from local low to local high. Hence sideways trading being bullish for the price in recent weeks, as opposed to bearish.

Finally, the 200 Day MA is now starting to move upwards again, after stagnating sideways for over 2 months, confirming the longer-term uptrend is still in tact and remains bullish.

[jaberwock]

Looking at the current price structure of Bitcoin, it seems like a good chance the the 0.618 fib retracement level around $53K will be re-tested before continuing the healthy uptrend.

It seems that you have missed to notice a strong support zone around $58k levels which is probably the bottom of ongoing corrections as it is the level which is holding the bitcoin market but I am not sure fibonacci or any other technical things is not helping you to spot this level. I am seeing a double bottom formation around 68.3k levels last week of October which may get power to get room for bulls at least in short term basis.

Bitcoin needs to produce higher highs which means we need to close above at least $61.6k level so that we could expect those heathy bulls again otherwise, we may expect lower lows to happen which may lead to set a bottom up to $54k to $53k levels.

[Wind_FURY]

OP, the kind of buyers that make old resistance become new support are the “HODLer types”, and I believe we haven’t seen a shortage of those types since July. Buy the dip with them if you don’t have Bitcoin, or miss the surge to six digits.

[dragonvslinux]

Looking at the current price structure of Bitcoin, it seems like a good chance the the 0.618 fib retracement level around $53K will be re-tested before continuing the healthy uptrend.

It seems that you have missed to notice a strong support zone around $58k levels which is probably the bottom of ongoing corrections as it is the level which is holding the bitcoin market but I am not sure fibonacci or any other technical things is not helping you to spot this level. I am seeing a double bottom formation around 68.3k levels last week of October which may get power to get room for bulls at least in short term basis.

Not quite, I referenced this 5 days ago:

Now the 50 Day MA has risen from $53K to $57K in recent weeks, for me this means high $50Ks would be the most likely price find would find support if it were to get rejected at $64K-65K and therefore break below $60K. This also lines up nicely with the 0.618 fib retracement from local low to local high.

Price found buyers at the 0.618 fib retracement level, so despite price moving lower, we still haven't made a lower low, at least based on Bitstamp, even if on CB price has done so.

Bitcoin needs to produce higher highs which means we need to close above at least $61.6k level so that we could expect those heathy bulls again otherwise, we may expect lower lows to happen which may lead to set a bottom up to $54k to $53k levels.

Couldn't agree more with this statement. Price needs to close back above the distribution zone that recently rejected the price.

OP, the kind of buyers that make old resistance become new support are the “HODLer types”, and I believe we haven’t seen a shortage of those types since July. Buy the dip with them if you don’t have Bitcoin, or miss the surge to six digits.

True story. Also traders that sell resistance, in order to buy support, even if doing so with a stop loss. Either way I agree, there isn't a shortage or investors or traders in the market right now.
While the 4hr is looking bearish (death cross incoming), and the Daily isn't as healthy as yesterday (when above the 50 Day MA), the longer-term trend remains bullish and is in dip buying territory.

[Ararbermas]

Yup it always happened when market is on uptrend wherein the resistance suddenly turn into strong support after the break out, infact that's the biggest secret of some swing traders i mean they look for swing low and swing high and yes sometimes the past resistance is one of their common target for the next entry point again once market start to fluctuate before making another highs.

[GreatArkansas]

Bids and volume of on supports are too strong, especially if you will use a higher time frame and identify supports and resistance.

Speaking of resistance become new supports, a lot of traders using this as an entry. Once resistance broke, or previous resistance/support, that's the time they are entering on a trade or on a pullback from that support/resistance.

For me now, $50,000 is a very strong support level right now, we must hold that support until end of this month.

[dragonvslinux]

Bids and volume of on supports are too strong, especially if you will use a higher time frame and identify supports and resistance.

Speaking of resistance become new supports, a lot of traders using this as an entry. Once resistance broke, or previous resistance/support, that's the time they are entering on a trade or on a pullback from that support/resistance.

For me now, $50,000 is a very strong support level right now, we must hold that support until end of this month.

It's true there is a good amount of support volume around $45-50K, but zooming out to volume from the past year, the $55-57K level has as much as $47.5-$49.5K (at least on Bitstamp) it's worth noting.

I also think the $50K level itself could act as strong physiological support, for those wanting to double their money in the belief that BTC reaches 6 figures, it give a good risk/reward I believe.



The shorter time-frame like the 4hr obviously doesn't look very good anymore, with price currently at resistance, as well as the local distribution zone around $60K-62K that will need breaking.

Now the $56.5K level has been broken (as well as 50 Day MA), price can certainly go lower, even if not necessarily by much more, as it becomes the path of least resistance in the short-term now.



While it might seem that price is in the middle of nowhere or otherwise at resistance, it none the less is at strong long-term volume support so has the potential to reverse at any moment.

[darkangelosme]

Looking at the current price structure of Bitcoin, it seems like a good chance the the 0.618 fib retracement level around $53K will be re-tested before continuing the healthy uptrend. Similar to September, price corrected back down to the strong volume support zone (and previous resistance) of $40K from $53K with a 25% correction (to turn it into new support) after an 80% increase.



To me it seems likely that a 20% correction to the low $50Ks will now take place after a 70% increase, also lining up nicely with the 50 Day MA that's rising in a bullish manner. I also don't doubt that price could have already established a local low and continue up from here, but if recent price history is anything to go by, the healthy correction may continue a little longer before finding a new ATH in November.

What are your thoughts, is the bottom already in or does price a little further down to go before new ATHs?

No further explanations i think Bitcoin will never be in 40,000 USD or 50, 000 USD again and it will continue till it becomes 100,000 USD that is my opinion so it much better for us now to buy some if we have same mindset.

[dragonvslinux]

So my initial theory a month ago that Bitcoin would re-test the 0.618 fib retracement level after $65K was re-tested was flawed, given price shortly after moved higher.

Regardless of the time-based inaccuracy, the fractal itself however remains very relevant it seems taken from the $69K new ATH, now that price has re-tested the 0.618:



I therefore wouldn't be surprised to see further consolidation at current prices, before further upside and new ATH, now that price is at the equivalent correction level when previously at $40K.

[Joshua Jackson]

I Love this analysis so much. it is very revealing. makes reading charts very easy and opens up alot of perspectives that i was not considering while looking at the chart. this is a great content. thanks a million for this

[STT]

Significant area around here so its been a good call, think I have the low or support likely to be 52k.   Its not impossible we put in the low with the recent pricing, its back above the 12hr average but my guess the test and confirmation of support must come next week with full volume.  Watch 54.5k but I think its just a trading game for the weekend.
  The way I would frame it overall, we are half way between the peak and July lows and which way the market goes is not yet clear but this area is a good point to label a hurdle in resistance/support.

[dragonvslinux]

Significant area around here so its been a good call, think I have the low or support likely to be 52k.   Its not impossible we put in the low with the recent pricing, its back above the 12hr average but my guess the test and confirmation of support must come next week with full volume.  Watch 54.5k but I think its just a trading game for the weekend.
  The way I would frame it overall, we are half way between the peak and July lows and which way the market goes is not yet clear but this area is a good point to label a hurdle in resistance/support.

Now that price has found support at the 0.618 on the shorter-term time-frames, I've gone for a high leveraged (10x) long position with tight stop loss 
It's rarely what I do, but rarely do I see such a good risk/reward opportunity, even if price only makes it back to $56-$57K before going lower again...
I don't doubt price could re-test $50K, or even lower to the $46K level where the 200 Day MA & volume support lies, but in the short-term expecting a dead cat bounce at minimum before futher downside.

[adaseb]

Bitcoin doing what Bitcoin does best. Basically ran the stops to the downside and then went higher and broke multiple resistance areas. I unfortunately exited my long because I assumed the weekend would be all chop and I didn’t like how the funding was positive when we were trending down. Seems like a liquidation domino effect would be triggered to the down side, however I was wrong.

Wanted to long in the $48-50K area instead. There is a fib in that area from the $28K low to the $69K high. Much better RR in that area when you consider to the fact that we might break $69K and head to like $74K. Around 50% profit for very little risk.

[Chato1977]

So my initial theory a month ago that Bitcoin would re-test the 0.618 fib retracement level after $65K was re-tested was flawed, given price shortly after moved higher.

Regardless of the time-based inaccuracy, the fractal itself however remains very relevant it seems taken from the $69K new ATH, now that price has re-tested the 0.618:

but then again today struggling to even reached that price again, it looks like the support to Bitcoin is decreasing time and over.

will we really see a progress this end year specially in the first 2 weeks of December?

or this is really a Bull Trap?