How often do bookmakers make mistakes in setting odds?

[Oasisman]

I'm not a huge fan for the MMA, but I saw some of the fights but not in the female category.
Odds are being set for some reason. There's no way we can identify whether the odds set by the bookies were a mistake or not, because they're as well speculating base on the past data and the current status of each fighter.
I made a short review regarding this and,
It could be that Zhang shows a potential revenge on the 2nd fight. So, the odds will be set not too distant against Namajunas.

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[DarkDays]

Clicking the chart icon on the far right at bestfightodds:

https://www.bestfightodds.com/events/ufc-268-usman-vs-covington-2-2246

Gives us a betting line history for Rose Namajunas vs Weili Zhang 2:



Line history shows Rose opening as a 1.91. With the line dropping down to 1.80. Then rising back to 1.93.

Line movement depends on the size and volume of bets placed. There are more bets being put on Weili Zhang which causes the line to swing in her favor.

Bookmakers start from the 50-50 odds and adjust according to the public bets. This example above shows the effect of the bets on the odds. I'm glad someone posted this as it really helps in clearing up any misunderstandings and people can easily understand how the odds are derived. Nice visual. Mistakes are likely but not that common.

[KTChampions]

Bookmakers start from the 50-50 odds and adjust according to the public bets. This example above shows the effect of the bets on the odds. I'm glad someone posted this as it really helps in clearing up any misunderstandings and people can easily understand how the odds are derived. Nice visual. Mistakes are likely but not that common.

In fact, bookmakers start with completely different odds, not necessarily 50-50. By the way, if I were to choose some kind of graph of the change in odds to visualize the change in the public's mood and the bets made by it, I would choose some other one. In this example, the odds have changed by about 3% in 2 months - it is difficult to call this a significant change. I thought there were examples of a much more dramatic change in odds caused by certain events.

[alegotardo]

I don't know much about boxing, but I say that in football I've seen some mistakes also in clubs that seemed to be favorites with a much lower probability of winning.
I don't understand these calculations that the houses make, but I've already noticed that some games have much more weight in the statistics that, in my point of view, are calculated wrongly.
I've tried to take advantage of it, but the chances of it happening are so rare it's hardly worth it.

[swogerino]

Mistakes do happen from time to time as even bookmakers are normal people and cannot know everything perfectly in detail.They usually rely on some odd providers which mostly are the same for almost all bookmakers with a few variations in their odds.Sometimes mistakes do happen because the staff of a certain bookmaker has the ability to alter these odds and they try to do so and unintentionally may make a mistake

In OP case it is not a mistake,it is that the two contenders have near same probability of winning and that is why odds are almost similar.

[fiulpro]

Well something else that I read on the internet apparently regarding the price correction:

If bookmakers make any mistake, they usually correct it at the point they realize it. Apparently I read it on the internet that they sometimes even correct them with the revised price even after the event have ended.

I do not think they should be allowed to do that though, if that happens wouldn't it be better if they dissolved the bet?

There is always a personal error possible since it's hard to take thousands of bets everyday and not have 1-2 errors.

Generally they have a policy which covers all of it, lemme quote it :

Not so, for an ‘obvious error’ (PALP) made by the bookmaker.  This is a complete in-balance between the service provider and the customer (punter).

All bookmakers will have a term and condition that reads something like this:

Prior to the start of an event, in-play or after the event, where an ‘Obvious Error’ is identified, any bets will stand and be settled at the revised price.

So, basically the bookmaker can make a mistake and correct it any point, even after the event has finished, but the customer (punter) cannot.  This can lead to all sorts of unscrupulous behaviour.

Soruce : https://justiceforpunters.org/obvious-bookmaker-errors-palps/

[YOSHIE]

you can see it's very close even when she caught Zhang in the first fight.  Currently, it's Rose (1.97)  Zhang (1.87)  on Stake.

Even though it has happened, obviously the decision has been made by the bookie, of course I don't see directly the point between Rose and Zhang, but if your question is directed specifically to the question below.

How often do bookmakers make mistakes in setting odds?

For sure the bookie has a strong indication to determine as I see below.

They have every right. As long as they have solid indications that you use your account for example for money laundering, arbitrage or break any of the Terms and Conditions. Many bookmakers complain that their accounts were closed just because they were winning a lot. It may happen. But when they will formally inform you, they will make sure that they will justify their every move. Note that the bookmaker reserves the right to close your account and this is something that you have already agreed.

And the mistakes that bookies often make are:

• Placed a bet but the official results were wrong.
• They cancelled my bonus.

More clearly you can read here: An obvious mistake made by the bookies