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Author Topic: How I Missed Out of a 10 Year Bitcoin Investment Plan  (Read 1397 times)
Dripstoil (OP)
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November 06, 2021, 12:38:57 PM
Last edit: November 07, 2021, 08:08:07 PM by Dripstoil
Merited by amishmanish (5)
 #1

You've heard of people who had early opportunity with the Bitcoin but missed it? Well, I'm probably one of them.

It was early 2011 on a Wednesday morning that someone called me on the phone to inquire if I was in the office, that he'd be heading to my office in few hours to discuss an important business proposal. I wanted to ignore, but decided to allow him come over, since it was a business discussion. So I obliged to the request and asked him to make in the next one hour, that I might be having another meeting in two hours.

47 minutes later, the guy was in my office fully prepared and radiating with confidence. After we exchanged greetings and brief instructions, he presented me with the papers full of charts and models, explaining how Bitcoin was going to rise from  $1 to $100,000.00 in the next 10 years. I didn't know whether to laugh, be angry, dismiss him, or to take him serious. I asked him what he was doing for a living, he said Bitcoin. Nothing else but Bitcoin. That he buy and sell and sometimes, hold for a while before selling. He explained to me how Bitcoin ruse from $0.001 to $1, and how much he made. Showed me some evidence, and how Bitcoin will continue to rise over the next 10years.

I was slightly convinced and somehow developing interest. But the whole idea of investing in an unknown virtual asset on the premise that it will gain 10,000% increase over the 10 years was completely a bad joke for me. I wanted to risk $1,500 but he was looking for $50,000 or nothing. The share formula was 30/70 and the agreement would be that there'll be no selling off, no matter the reason, until 10 years. Even if Bitcoin moved to $100k before the time, or trended backward to zero, that nothing would make us sell until the agreed time. That was what scared me off completely and made me to turn him down.

If I had accepted that offer, the $50,000.00 would have acquired 50,000 units of Bitcoin.

At the current rate, my 70% share would have worth:

BTC50,000 x $62,000
= $3,100,000,000.00.

    3,100,000,000.00 ÷ 100
    = $31,000,000.00

         31,000,000 × 70
         = $2,170,000,000.00.

The 10 year plan ended in February 2020 and Bitcoin was $10k at that time. The prediction was off by wide margin but still good. I never imagined in 2011 that Bitcoin would to that high,and now we're at $62,000 and still going.

I currently have some crypto (BTC, ETH, LTC, etc) but nothing compares to what I'd have got from the Investment plan, or even remotely close. I lost an opportunity to become a Bitcoin billionaire!

That's by the way though, but one thing I learned from the proposal (which is the reason I decided to share it ) is that it's important to always have target and set time for your Crypto Investment. If you continue to Hodl without set time and target, you'll either Hodl forever because there'll be no end to your expectations, or you sell at the wrong time.

Right now, I'm holding till the next 5 years. I'll continue to scrape for a living till then. Hopefully it works in my favor.

I'm new here but not new with Crypto. As time goes on, I'll be sharing some of the ideas and personal experiences I've had over the years as time permits.


What's your current plan?
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November 06, 2021, 01:16:16 PM
 #2

I wanted to risk $1,500 but he was looking for $50,000 or nothing.
At that time, 1,500$ is a big money to buy bitcoin. I can guess that the whole minted bitcoin wasn't worth the 50,000$. If 1btc = 10$ then 50k can buy 5000 btc which was not yet minted maybe.
Maybe he was about to scam you.


If I had accepted that offer, the $50,000.00 would have acquired 50,000 units of Bitcoin.

...

The 10 year plan ended in February 2020 and Bitcoin was $10k at that time. The prediction was off by wide margin but still good. I never imagined in 2011 that Bitcoin would to that high,and now we're at $62,000 and still going.

I currently have some crypto (BTC, ETH, LTC, etc) but nothing compares to what I'd have got from the Investment plan, or even remotely close. I lost an opportunity to become a Bitcoin billionaire!

...

Right now, I'm holding till the next 5 years. I'll continue to scrape for a living till then. Hopefully it works in my favor.

...
If you meet someone who doesn't know that you are a successful investor (doesn't know you in person either) and has little/No knowledge about cryptocurrencies, and you told him your story with bitcoin in early days, do you think he will be convinced to set an investment budget of 50,000$ ?

Do you know how many people had early opportunity with the Bitcoin but missed it? Can you imagine that many of them were already investors and Devs?
No one expected the adoption will be that large.
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November 06, 2021, 01:20:30 PM
 #3

Rather than regret those missed actions in the past, face whatever you will encounter today and have the guts to enter crypto on its current status.

Don't blame yourself that you missed a train before because there's no way we can predict the outcome in the first place. If you will just keep thinking about what you did in the past, you will just forever be struck on that thinking and will have difficulty facing the current trend.

It's not the end. Act now.

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Dripstoil (OP)
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November 06, 2021, 01:26:29 PM
Last edit: November 06, 2021, 01:42:04 PM by Dripstoil
 #4

@Coupable, As at that time, I knew very little or nothing about Bitcoin. Perhaps his intention was to scam me. I can't say for sure but his presentation was quite convincing.

I think the plan was to buy over times, maybe throughout the first 1,2,3 years but he just needed an Investment capital for it.

While the presentation was interesting, the whole thing seemed vague to me, hence the reason i pulled out. 
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November 06, 2021, 01:31:12 PM
 #5

Half of what you mentioned and if you had invested you could have made a lot of current profits. When you wanted to invest, nobody thought Bitcoin would succeed, not even you thought Bitcoin would succeed. No one had much knowledge of Bitcoin 10 years ago. Gradually, the more people use bitcoin, the more people gain knowledge about bitcoin. Bitcoin was not used by many people before but Bitcoin is used in most countries today.My guess is that in countries where cryptocurrency is not used now, cryptocurrency will be used in those countries in the future.
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November 06, 2021, 01:34:06 PM
 #6

the whole thing seemed vague to me
Of course and it was. A stranger came and told you than a magic internet currency would rise by 10,000,000%. This sounds nothing, but vague.

Look, your reaction was COMPLETELY justified and I'd do the same if I were you. The problem of this missed opportunity lies on the lack of knowledge. You didn't know what was bitcoin. If someone had come to me and said this, I'd definitely search what the hell that thing is, just out of curiosity. (And so did I)

So, I'd say you lost this opportunity not due to your denial of the investment plan, but because you didn't read what it is. If you had read how both bitcoin and our monetary system work, you may had bought few billion sats.

Lesson (hopefully) learnt; stack sats.

.
.HUGE.
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November 06, 2021, 01:52:31 PM
 #7

You've heard about people who had early opportunity with the Bitcoin but missed it? Well, I'm one of them.

~snip

Every day new people are learning about Bitcoin and are benefiting by investing in Bitcoin. It's not that you missed out on the opportunity to buy Bitcoin before, in fact, Opportunity depends on your holding time, there is no doubt that 5 years from today some newcomers will think today was the opportunity to buy Bitcoin.
Long story short, forget about the past and make a new plan from here, still, we are in a growing phase.

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November 06, 2021, 02:08:51 PM
 #8

Instead of regretting about what was missed out, I believe that we are still having many more opportunities if we plan up for next 10 years. In next 10 years bitcoin definitely will value more than 10 million dollars (this year's speculation is $100k and in ext 4 years it will be 1 million and in 8 years 10 millions dollars). So, planning up from today onward definitely will help anyone.

Even if you are not able to invest any big money right now you can plan up investing on every month so that you can make some decent profit in next 10 years.

I believe most people might have understood the potential of bitcoin right now but the problem with most of the investors is, they are getting excited when they are seeing 2x or 5x profits and then go profit booking or when bitcoin market is falling down for some 25% to 50% then they get panic and then exiting.

You need to trust on the potential of bitcoin for next 10 years so that you can enjoy similar profits.

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November 06, 2021, 02:15:11 PM
Last edit: November 06, 2021, 08:54:16 PM by Dripstoil
 #9

At that time, 1,500$ is a big money to buy bitcoin. I can guess that the whole minted bitcoin wasn't worth the 50,000$. If 1btc = 10$ then 50k can buy 5000 btc which was not yet minted maybe.
Maybe he was about to scam you.
As at that time, Bitcoin was trading at $1 per BTC and the total mined 2,981,300 BTC. I don't know how many of it were available then. Didn't even know what that meant. Was just listening and reading from the proposal.

Do you know how many people had early opportunity with the Bitcoin but missed it? Can you imagine that many of them were already investors and Devs?
No one expected the adoption will be that large.
Well, I won't say you're 100% right because the guy did believe it will continue to rise and created a model to back his claims. But beside him and probably few others like him, no one else, including me, believed such would ever be possible.
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November 06, 2021, 02:27:27 PM
 #10

Well we are all have are share stories about bitcoin in money and we all have regrets about not believing in it earlier, i for one back in 2011 was just in high school and i was always looking for a way to make money from the internet, and one day there was a report in the TV news about a guy using 4 computers to mine bitcoin and make profit from it, the idea intrigued me and i wanted to know more about it, but i didn't have neither the knowledge or the patience and it seemed way to complicated for me so i let go of the idea and moved on with life until five years later when a friend mentioned that he is earning money from it and that is when i know that i missed my chance to make a fortune if i had kept with it, but now i am trying to make up for that mistake by earning and holding bitcoin however i can.
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November 06, 2021, 02:40:43 PM
 #11

Regret will always be there, but I think it would be better if it was used as an experience.
forget what happened in the past and make it a valuable experience.
otherwise it is never too late to get into crypto and now you can give it a try and make a decision whether to do it or not.
because if you can't escape from the past it will only add to your regret when btc rises to a higher direction.
I think you can try now even though it is now quite high and almost reached its ath. you can try it and wait for the next few years, or maybe you can wait for fud or indeed a correction and wait for btc to go down if indeed it will be there again this year Smiley
make your choice from now on instead of you lamenting the past that can't be changed

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proTECH77
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November 06, 2021, 02:58:07 PM
 #12

When you missed your opportunity, you don't need to regret for the profit you have Miss for 10 years than to improve in your strategies to recover all that you have loss for the pass. Now that the price of bitcoin is about to increase higher, it will be favourable to those investors who are well prepared for this great opportunity that is about to land in the market.
If you missed the first opportunity because of lack of preparation and research failure. This second opportunity is for those that have the knowledge and experience about this season of profits making.

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November 06, 2021, 04:47:27 PM
 #13

I was a bit convinced and somehow I was developing interest. But the whole idea of investing in an unknown virtual asset on premise that it will gain 10,000% increase over the next 10 years was completely a bad joke for me. I wanted to risk $1,500 but he was looking for $50,000 or nothing. The share formula was 30/70 and the agreement would that there'll be no selling off, no matter the reason, until 10 years. Even if Bitcoin moved to $100k before then, and started to trend backwards to zero, that nothing would make us sell until the agreed time. That was what scared me off completely and I turned him down.


Have you thought what are the odds that he would have taken your 50 grands, never contacted you again and the condition about not selling for 10 years was there to discourage you from filing a complaint. Scammers often use legitimate investments as a legend for their scam, so from my point of view you most likely dodged a bullet. Not only you would have lost those money, you could have easily got discouraged from participating in crypto market in the future.

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November 06, 2021, 04:49:48 PM
 #14

@Coupable, As at that time, I knew very little or nothing about Bitcoin. Perhaps his intention was to scam me. I can't say for sure but his presentation was quite convincing.

I think the plan was to buy over times, maybe throughout the first 1,2,3 years but he just needed an Investment capital for it.

While the presentation was interesting, the whole thing seemed vague to me, hence the reason i pulled out. 

A lot of people here had an encounter similar to yours regarding Bitcoin but
as @BlackHatCoiner posted it was easy to be skeptical in the early days because
Bitcoin was revolutionary (still is actually!)

@Dripstoil what ever happened to that other oerson who approached you back then?

R


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bL4nkcode
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November 06, 2021, 05:05:36 PM
 #15

Probably that guy you met by chance is a scammer who knows about bitcoin that time, but I admire his vision about bitcoin on its early days and his courage to invest in 10 years on that time.
But 50k for initial investment from unknown asset told by a stranger will really scare you off actually, but if you keep updated of bitcoin even after 2-3 years I guess you will be moved and take part somewhere in 2013 - 2014 which will give you lots of profit if you keep holding till now.

Aside from the math you made, there are bitcoin forks where you can get profit as well such as BCH and BSV multiplied to another 50k will be another couple of millions.
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November 06, 2021, 05:28:52 PM
 #16

Regret always come late and you are one of many others who told us today. If you have time to buy that day, I bet you won't be able to stop yourself from selling bitcoin for $100 or maybe you are very lucky only if you forget your wallet for years after the purchase. After all, there have been enough incident where bitcoin users have been scammed (including exchange hacks) since then and you don't seem to want to talk about it. I will never regret it in my life because in fact you and I and other people could still buy bitcoin when it was under $10K last year and make a spread profit of $60K per coin.

Of course, many other forum users besides you feel the same way simply because they missed an opportunity for various reasons. But I'm sure if you keep remembering it it will never be good for your mental health. I barely slept for onenight just because I sold my investment asset for $150 per token in the past which is currently at $4.4K. Since I realized it wasn't a mistake, I forgot about it from then on.

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November 06, 2021, 05:40:37 PM
Last edit: November 06, 2021, 08:58:18 PM by Dripstoil
 #17

When you missed your opportunity, you don't need to regret for the profit you have Miss for 10 years than to improve in your strategies..

I don't have any regrets about it. It could have been a scam as many people have pointed out. I was just sharing the encounter, and imagining what would have become if it were to become a reality.

Regret always come late and you are one of many others who told us today. If you have time to buy that day, I bet you won't be able to stop yourself from selling bitcoin for $100 or maybe you are very lucky only if you forget your wallet for years after the purchase.
That's another good point. Who on earth would have held Bitcoin from then till now? Maybe the agreement not to sell till 10yrs would be the hedge.
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November 06, 2021, 08:09:38 PM
Merited by o_e_l_e_o (4), BlackHatCoiner (2)
 #18

There are greater fools than you.

I am a bigger idiot because I had excellent background to understand bitcoin myself. But bitcoin showed me I am an idiot. It made me humble that way.

I came across bitcoin around 2011-2012 in an emerging financial technology forum that is defunct today. Made a note to myself to read, research and understand the topic. However, never got the time and got carried away with job, family, home, sports, etc. Golden opportunity lost to mine with CPU, GPU and FPGA.

I again got some time from professional life in 2016. This time I finally read Satoshi's paper and understood what it is. Decided to mine. Researched the technical options. Found this forum, coinmarketcap, coinwarz, exchanges. Downloaded the softwares for Bitcoin, Ethereum and other alt coins. But again made a wrong decision. It was the time of S7 and R4. Somehow I decided to go more heavily on GPU rigs. Built several GPU rigs. Then again got busy with the job and did not expand the operation. Did not replenish the GPUs when they died. Since it was challenging for me to handle life and the GPU farm I tried to consolidate by selling smaller gpus to buy larger GPUs to reduce complexity another wrong decision. This way for couple of extended period I was caught on the supply chain hick up of the GPU market when I have sold my existing GPUs and could not replenish the existing rigs because none are available or I was not willing to buy at that price. This Happened for sometime during 2016 holidays to summer of 2017. Since I was not doing this with dedication, there were many extended periods when my rigs were empty. During 2018 crypto winter finally I was able to replenish all my rigs. The people who were consistently after all 2nd hand gpu during this period made a lot of money in 2019 and 2020 and if the GPUs are alive they are making even now. Unfortunately about 50% of my GPUs died by 2020. Few were under warranty but most died just after warranty. So i am watching the best time ever to mine with GPUs passing by while 50% of my rigs are empty. I never upgraded much Asics beyond s9 regularly.

Only one thing positive I was doing is never selling any crypto that I mined. There also I got bombed by some smaller exchanges closing. But at least with whatever hobby level capacity I had I kept mining regardless of price or profitability. The other positive is my son got an excellent understanding of crypto, probability, economics, market, profitability, credit, leverage, negotiation and building computers.          

I am a failure in crypto largely because I failed to recognize the opportunity and focused on my day job, stock trading and kept my mining at the hobby level. If I embraced mining fulltime with all my money and credit then people would be interviewing me by now. Probably should have replenished mining capacity when they died also on a regular basis rather than waiting for the right moment and getting caught on work or supply chain problem.
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November 06, 2021, 10:45:05 PM
 #19

What an interesting story! Feel sorry that you haven’t believed in BTC at that time. Only imagine, you had a perfect possibility and missed it. Your friend didn’t want to take 1500$ you offered him, but you liked the idea, so in case you’ve invested even those 1500$ in BTC by yourself, you would have already became a multi-millionaire. Just compare, I get known with BTC at the end of 2016 year when it was 800$ and I didn’t believe in it at all. BTC looked for me like something unreal and fantastic that will definitely scam because (I thought) no one digital code can’t cost 800$. I didn’t believe even when it reached 4000$ and continue growing more. I was always waiting when it fall down and die, but that didn’t happen. How stupid I was those days... I also missed my moment and now I get only tiny crumbs.
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November 06, 2021, 10:54:29 PM
 #20

Rather than regret those missed actions in the past, face whatever you will encounter today and have the guts to enter crypto on its current status.

Don't blame yourself that you missed a train before because there's no way we can predict the outcome in the first place. If you will just keep thinking about what you did in the past, you will just forever be struck on that thinking and will have difficulty facing the current trend.

It's not the end. Act now.

One thing that caught my attentions was, the person offering him was asking for $50k or nothing, and that's big amount of money. So I have the feeling that person was about to scam you. Why $50k, he knew you were willing to risk $1500 but he was asking a lot. So yes, don't regret your action that day, because it maybe was a blessing in disguise.

@OP, do you know by any chance what happened to this person? Is he still in crypto?

And also, you can always look forward and not backward. You can still invest on this market if you truly believe there is a future in this market.
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