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Author Topic: IMF: War Dims Global Economic Outlook as Inflation Accelerates  (Read 143 times)
stompix
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April 21, 2022, 08:35:42 AM
 #21

While gas is more difficult to transport - all the pipes kinda end up in Russia (and not Rome) - oil has a wider list of providers, and with Germany announcing they'll get rid of Russian oil imports this year, they pretty much forced Russia rush the sales, hence lowering the price (we'll see in December if it was the typical FUD we also see in Bitcoin markets or not, but for now it started to work).

Hmm, more like every gas pipeline end in Wien  Wink
Russia has the same problem as Europe, all their gas can go only to Europe, even if they would tries to sell it to China or India, it's simply impossible, and look what China has to say:
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3172028/russian-gas-sales-china-will-not-make-loss-european-markets

Quote
Russia exported 16.5 billion cubic metres (bcm) of gas to China in 2021 via pipelines and in the form of liquefied natural gas. There are plans to significantly increase pipeline capacity to almost 100 bcm and boost LNG sales too.
However, Russia is exporting about 170 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas to the European markets every year and the prices for the two buyers are “dramatically different”, according to Mitrova.
When the line is in operation by 2026, the annual supply of pipeline natural gas from Russia to China will rise to 48 bcm, nearly five times the 2021 figure.

Rusia is also trapped in this.
What some guys that claim Russia can cut gas to freeze Europe to death might find shocking is that Russia still pays transit money to Ukraine to deliver gas to Europe! The perfect clusterfuck, wars and diplomacy were far easier in medieval times!

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April 21, 2022, 09:20:31 AM
 #22

The first thing that is affected by war is inflation, maybe the first impact will be felt by countries that are at war but this will have a global impact because when there is a war, many things such as production, distribution and so on are disrupted, and what the IMF conveys is of course based on accurate data. because at this time almost countries reported inflation.



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Lucius
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April 21, 2022, 10:23:32 AM
 #23

Rusia is also trapped in this.
What some guys that claim Russia can cut gas to freeze Europe to death might find shocking is that Russia still pays transit money to Ukraine to deliver gas to Europe! The perfect clusterfuck, wars and diplomacy were far easier in medieval times!

We really live in a strange world where on the one hand there is a life-and-death struggle, and on the other hand the EU is sending weapons to Ukraine and billions of euros to Russia for gas and oil. We should also not forget that Russia has something else that is traded and that the EU cannot survive, and that is nuclear fuel.

A few days ago, a Russian plane flew over several EU and NATO member states and landed in Hungary with a precious cargo. For those wondering why Hungary continues to maintain good relations with Russia, here is the answer - the nuclear power plant in Paks satisfies at least a third of the country's electricity.

This reminds me of the Serbian aggression on Croatia in 1991, when Serbia had an embargo on oil imports - and the Croatian oil company INA sold oil to the aggressor country, which was later confirmed in his book by one of the then president's closest associates Hrvoje Šarinić.

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April 21, 2022, 10:34:13 AM
 #24

I don't think that the war in Ukraine is the main cause for the global inflation.
The main cause of the inflation is the quantitative easing made by the big central banks during the pandemic.
The "powers that be" in the western world simply use the war in Ukraine as an excuse for the inflation.
There is a way to fight the current inflation-increasing the interest rates,but the Federal Reserve System doesn't want to increase the interest rates,because this will make the US federal debt more expensive.
I know that oil prices are a major factor for the inflation,but the global oil prices were moving in the 110-140 USD range during the war in Iraq(2003-2007) and there wasn't such gigantic inflation everywhere around the world back then.There's something wrong with the global economy.


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April 21, 2022, 11:29:49 AM
 #25

We should also not forget that Russia has something else that is traded and that the EU cannot survive, and that is nuclear fuel.

That's not really such a big problem.
There are only 4 states which depend on those, Bulgaria, Hungary, and the Slovakia Czech Republic duo, with less than 10GW, and furthermore, Westinghouse can produce the fuel, is just that all these countries have contracts with Russia and the replacement of fuel was already planned.
Allow Romania to restart all its coal powerplants and there you go, 12 GW capacity with interconnection just in the middle of the problem.

Nuclear fuel will be easy, oil will be tricky, gas is the problem!

I know that oil prices are a major factor for the inflation,but the global oil prices were moving in the 110-140 USD range during the war in Iraq(2003-2007) and there wasn't such gigantic inflation everywhere around the world back then.There's something wrong with the global economy.

There was less trade being done at that time, look for example the volume in shipping, the war didn't come after a lockdown that fucked the logistic chain forever and still keeps 1/4 of China messed up, and more important that was Irak, it wasn't a clash at the door of the second economy if we count EU as a whole.

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