What if Covid 19 broke the 4 year market cycle?

[o48o]

Just spitballing this idea:

Current basis for btc 4 year cycles is based on the fact that we are assuming movements / time frames with repeat themselves or at least rhyme with the past movements, in stages of exponential highs, correction, accumulation, and continuation. And while those happen, there's no rule that it needs to happen with a similar pace.

I know we are assuming that btc cycle lenght is based on Bitcoin technical FA (halvenings) and that real world events would not affecting the cycle lenght. But Covid 19 just halted nearly everything in this planet for a very long time, so why wouldn't it affect all market cycles with it? Bitcoin wouldn't live in the vacuum when it comes to market conditions.

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[DaveF]

Although covid is a big thing and did change & disrupt a lot of markets, and probably will have an impact in this cycle IMO saying any one thing causes a major market change is not an accurate way of looking at things.

4 years ago people were hearing about BTC hitting ATH in the $20k range
How many people started looking into it then? Going back to the big ATH numbers before that it was still easy to dismiss.
But $50k+ $1T+ market cap those make people notice.
ETFs, those also make people notice.
And so on.

-Dave

[NeuroticFish]

Covid 19 just halted nearly everything in this planet for a very long time, so why wouldn't it affect all market cycles with it

While COVID probably had its effects, I think that institutional investors (Bakkt, MicroStrategy, Tesla, ...) were those with a very big effects, which we cannot even measure yet. They've thrown a snowball down the hill and it's becoming more and more an avalanche with JPMorgan or MasterCard joining in.
I don't know how this market "cycle" will go, I don't know when and how will it end, but it may be indeed different from the others. And iirc this was "predicted" since before COVID came in.

[mk4]

There's a chance. In the past cycles, we didn't have the U.S. federal reserve printing US dollars like total madmen, and we didn't have companies, countries, and cities looking into adding bitcoin to their balance sheets. But yea, I probably don't want to say "this time it's different", but I personally think that if we actually enter a bear market sometime in the next months, I think it wouldn't be as painful like we had in the past.

[otundebis]

The best year for bitcoin has been post-covid-19 and one tend to think perhaps bitcoin is immune to real world issues as bitcoin FA make it superior to fiat and other asset! Having said this, most of the event that trigger a dip or rise in price of bitcoin has been people reactions to events and situation of FUD against bitcoin. I think four year circle will continue for a long period of time until bitcoin becomes unattainable economic wise!

[Evgenklm]

if covid-19 had affected the market, then we would have seen it a long time ago, we live today and see that the pandemic has not ended for a long time, and the cryptocurrency market is confidently on its feet.Therefore, I believe the pandemic does not affect the crypto currency market.

[Bitcoin_Arena]

The time for the disruption was supposed to be early last year, just as the pandemic was starting to take grip. In fact in March, all markets slumped and cryptos weren't spared, but there was a noticeable bounce off the deep.

After continuing to see a bull market shortly after the halving and an all-time-high some months later, just like in the past 4-year cycles. I don't think this one will be any different.

[stomachgrowls]

There's a chance. In the past cycles, we didn't have the U.S. federal reserve printing US dollars like total madmen, and we didn't have companies, countries, and cities looking into adding bitcoin to their balance sheets. But yea, I probably don't want to say "this time it's different", but I personally think that if we actually enter a bear market sometime in the next months, I think it wouldn't be as painful like we had in the past.

Probabilities would be always there thats why we shouldnt really be that confident that it wont really happen about on experiencing the same pain on what we had experienced back into those years but presuming on tha level of adoption and recognition then we can confidently say that crash couldnt really
happen on that fast pace scenario.

Support and recognition level is on different scale which simply implies that it wont really go down easily.In regards with Covid on breaking that 4 year market cycle then i dont really mind much on attaching out these sentiments.

[passwordnow]

A lot of things has happened due to the pandemic and you see that most economies have been reset but the crypto market never stopped and even became wider and better.
If the chance of the covid19 has already broken the market cycle and we've seen it already earlier this year. It's the after all-time high, the sudden crash came and that had made bitcoin $28k. There's a likely that crash was already what you've thought broke the cycle because it happened earlier and made a recovery already.

[GreatArkansas]

For me, Covid 19 is one of the triggers for Bitcoin to start its rally last year.
I remember before that some people started to speculate that once the covid 19 vaccine will be available, Bitcoin will start to decline but look the Bitcoin now, new all-time-high again a few hours ago.

So, my take here, Bitcoin will stay, or covid 19 will stay and Covid 19 - Bitcoin will start no connection at all like how the Bitcoin price will react to this pandemic.

[magnum1010]

Actually, I also think that cycles will be a bit different now and bear market will not be so deep. But I don't think that it is only due to covid 19. Mass adoption of crypto is very wide and there are many people who came to this market, so I think that when the trend will break, bear market will not be so long like it used to be after 2017.

[Wexnident]

Well if we take into account what Covid did, then it definitely brought a different change since well, it's something not seen in the normal 4 year cycle, or rather actually isn't normally seen. It's influence not only reached towards the price crash when the lockdowns started but also till this date where minor influences piled up to become what it is today. No one could say really, but who knows, some people say that Covid did accelerate the growth due to that pause in the normal cycle we had. Still, I don't think we'd reach a bear market that big compared to the past, the community is pretty big compared to what it was before after all.

[rhomelmabini]

Well, it could have been different I guess if we haven't indeed seen the COVID-19 and maybe we could see more levels being broke. But, one thing to note that post COVID-19 has been a great time for those who bought the dips. The question right now is, would the market be different now since there are many players in the market and the 4-year cycle will be broken?

[davis196]

The pandemic had influenced the crypto market back in March 2020,when everyone on the markets(both stock and crypto) was panicking and the BTC price want down pretty fast,but it recovered fast as well.
There's was other influence of COVID over the Bitcoin price ever since.
Perhaps the 2020 US stimulus checks had some impact over the Bitcoin price,but that impact cannot be measured.
All the lockdowns caused by COVID had zero impact over the Bitcoin price and there will be no more lockdowns,due to the high vaccination levels.
The 4 year Bitcoin market cycle(if such cycle really exists,which is debatable) was definitely NOT broken by the pandemic.

[michellee]

The presence of Covid at end of 2019 and the beginning of 2020 is a step moving from traditional payment into a digital payment which we saw many companies ask their members and customer to use a digital transaction to pay for the services. While people use digital fiat transactions, they also see the crypto movements and attract them to learn more about crypto.

People who work from home because of Covid know about crypto from social media and suddenly, crypto becomes booming because of meme coins. That moment continues with NFT trends and makes many people join the crypto world.

The Covid will end soon but the transaction will change from traditional into digital payments as we can see now. It will change our future in the payment systems because people will think that digital payment systems are the solution in the future.

[wxa7115]

Just spitballing this idea:

Current basis for btc 4 year cycles is based on the fact that we are assuming movements / time frames with repeat themselves or at least rhyme with the past movements, in stages of exponential highs, correction, accumulation, and continuation. And while those happen, there's no rule that it needs to happen with a similar pace.

I know we are assuming that btc cycle lenght is based on Bitcoin technical FA (halvenings) and that real world events would not affecting the cycle lenght. But Covid 19 just halted nearly everything in this planet for a very long time, so why wouldn't it affect all market cycles with it? Bitcoin wouldn't live in the vacuum when it comes to market conditions.

It depends, as you say bitcoin is not in a bubble and now it is part of the financial markets, so if the pandemic affects the economy then bitcoin can be affected by it as well, however I see the possible impacts of the pandemic on the price of bitcoin as positive.

Even before the pandemic governments were heavily indebted and after the pandemic this is way worse, the taxes they got went down and the economy slowed down to critical levels, this means that all the signs point towards a long economic crisis, which is the very reason why bitcoin was created, so I think the 4 year market cycle could be broken in a positive way for bitcoin.

[yohananaomi]

The presence of Covid at end of 2019 and the beginning of 2020 is a step moving from traditional payment into a digital payment which we saw many companies ask their members and customer to use a digital transaction to pay for the services. While people use digital fiat transactions, they also see the crypto movements and attract them to learn more about crypto.

People who work from home because of Covid know about crypto from social media and suddenly, crypto becomes booming because of meme coins. That moment continues with NFT trends and makes many people join the crypto world.

The Covid will end soon but the transaction will change from traditional into digital payments as we can see now. It will change our future in the payment systems because people will think that digital payment systems are the solution in the future.

Indeed, no one will be able to dampen the rapid progress of technology, as well as the presence of digital transactions, which added during the pandemic, everyone wants to be able to avoid using fiat because it is allegedly one of the passive carriers of transmission.

so the momentum of crypto is also a conversation because of the ease that can be done with the use of crypto. It's only natural that at this time everyone is trying to at least get to know what crypto is and will then use crypto services as well.

It's true, this technological advancement will be irreplaceable for some time to come that the use of digital transactions makes it very easy for everyone to do anything only with the latest technology devices that can be carried or anything connected to the internet.

[palle11]

but I personally think that if we actually enter a bear market sometime in the next months, I think it wouldn't be as painful like we had in the past.

I believe even a bear market this time won't drop alot till it goes back as has been the case in 2018. Bitcoin has don good move up and the correction didn't last much and it went up. Many factors are responsible for this strong support of bitcoin and adoption contributing to it. Despite China creating fud all around , hodlers are still optimistic for more bull.

[2double0]

There were retail investors back then who drove the value of btc in those past 4 year cycles (I don't know why they kept the number at 4 then), this time institutions are backing bitcoin and other few altcoins in top 10 and it is also helping in promoting the crypto economy to the levels we never saw in the past. However, Covid outbreaks again in some countries and has become a threat again for countries where it settled down gradually in numbers and if that happens, we may again enter a bear market to change the market sentiments. I don't know why we are talking about Covid only while the most significant reason behind btc's rise is the debacle of USD and Fed's monetary policies.

[Ararbermas]

Just spitballing this idea:

Current basis for btc 4 year cycles is based on the fact that we are assuming movements / time frames with repeat themselves or at least rhyme with the past movements, in stages of exponential highs, correction, accumulation, and continuation. And while those happen, there's no rule that it needs to happen with a similar pace.

I know we are assuming that btc cycle lenght is based on Bitcoin technical FA (halvenings) and that real world events would not affecting the cycle lenght. But Covid 19 just halted nearly everything in this planet for a very long time, so why wouldn't it affect all market cycles with it? Bitcoin wouldn't live in the vacuum when it comes to market conditions.

if i remember it correctly, the first year of covid19 crypto market is really struggling as well like there's no exception that time wherein all the businesses are halted literally.. But months passing by crypto is gaining more attention and it's because a lot people can't go outside to work and they preferred to find work online(work from home), and yes that's how crypto market gradually increasing by the help of the social media there's alot of people become new investors and etc. especially when NFTS projects emerged, wherein from the dip most of the top crypto grown fast without knowing... Perhaps if there's no covid19, i think crypto will not become popular today. I mean there still a lot of people have doubts and against in it., now because of covid19 they figured it out that BITCOIN and cryptp market is really existing and not a scam.