Crypto Veterans and Legendaries: Need Advice on my Bitcoin Strategy

[romeareo]

tldr;
I missed the boat in 2017 Bullrun and the subsequent crash taught me lessons that I will never forget and those lessons are deeply seared into my subconscious.

This bull run I accidentally made $650k and I likely invested around $15k here and there.

1. I am 100% sure I never want to be in a position where I have to explain to myself how I was $650k up and then squandered everything.

So, I cashed out with BTC at near ATH few days back.

I follow the simple Grandma/Shoe shine boy as a sell signal and that's what I did.

"Coinbase was also the most popular downloaded app in the United States in both 2017 and May 2021, as per Cointelegraph. Notably, both periods saw a significant cryptocurrency frenzy. The current surge in popularity of Coinbase and Crypto.com on the app correlates with euphoria in the cryptocurrency market as well."

I am not super happy though. If the bull run starts in the next few weeks and then extends over to the next 2 quarters and BTC reaches an ATH of around $200k to $250k per coin, I won't be able to forgive myself.
At the same time if I ride the wave all the way up and all the way down and lose 90% of the value in the bag, I won't be able to deal with that at all.

I just want the bear market to be here as soon as possible so I can buy lot of cheap BTC coins and then forget about everything for the next 3 years. 2025 will be my second and final Bull slaughter.


Right now 100% of the crypto I have is in stable coins. 
My current strategy is to wait for the bear market to arrive.

The next Bitcoin halvening is early 2024. I want to start DCAing into BTC from 2023 October and slowly extend into ETH in 2024.
From the exact date of halvening I will convert my BTC into Altcoins and invest in every new coins that gets listed in Binance that year and other famous exchanges. I will also reserve 10% of the crypto for the fad of the summer i.e Similar to Defi, NFT, ICOs.

This should net me 15x to 20x if I get lucky.  So that's 15 x 650k = $10 Million and that should hopefully set me up for life.


The most rational course of action I can take now is just wait however long it takes for the bear market to arrive i.e gritting my teeth through the Bull run.
Some times I feel.. why should I do this? If I play my cards right.. I might 10x during this bull run and turn $650k into $7 M .. this way I can end the whole thing in the next 4 to 6 months. $7 Million is a lot of money.
But my gut tells me I can only 2x or 3x atmost and while 3xing my NW, I will slip into the bear territory and lose 90% of everything I have.

The other thing is I want to create 50 different wallets and store $13k in them so I won't FOMO in and lose a lot impulsively. It will force me to DCA.


I might just lock up $600k in cold wallet and then play with $50k that way I won't feel left out of the action.

What do you guys think about my strategy? 

[titular]

I think openly discussing your numbers online is unsafe in its own way.

Nonetheless, what you're talking about is timing the market. No one on here can predict the market and how high or low it's going to go in the next decade.

In many early bitcoiners experiences, time-in the market beats timing the market. If bitcoin is reaching 800k USD per coin, it won't matter if you bought in at 60k or 35k. If you believe in what bitcoin will achieve, you should have no problem buying and holding.

Obviously don't invest what you can't afford to lose.

[romeareo]

Is it really timing the market though?

Timing meant buying at the lowest point and selling at the highest point which no one can predict.

But everyone knows what a bear market is and bear market lasts years typically. I am going to enter at ANY point in the bear market and DCA into it.

Likewise everyone knows what a bull market is and I am going to exit at ANY point within the bull market and a bull market lasts many months.

 

[titular]

Is it really timing the market though?

Timing meant buying at the lowest point and selling at the highest point which no one can predict.

But everyone knows what a bear market is and bear market lasts years typically. I am going to enter at ANY point in the bear market and DCA into it.

Likewise everyone knows what a bull market is and I am going to exit at ANY point within the bull market and a bull market lasts many months.

You say typically as if we have been through 40 bear markets already. Regardless of what anyone may claim, you can never be certain when we are at the bottom or top. We have not seen enough bear markets to understand them in their entirety.

Back in July people were swearing the bottom was going to be 20k and then we would see a rise. That clearly was not the case.

If you are asking how long a bear market will last, you are asking people to time the market. Which no one can do.

Exiting will not be necessary if bitcoin succeeds the way many prophesize.

[mk4]

Is it really timing the market though?

Timing meant buying at the lowest point and selling at the highest point which no one can predict.

But everyone knows what a bear market is and bear market lasts years typically. I am going to enter at ANY point in the bear market and DCA into it.

Likewise everyone knows what a bull market is and I am going to exit at ANY point within the bull market and a bull market lasts many months.

Not saying it's a good or bad move, but timing the market literally just means timing the market, and it seems to be what you're trying to do; which is obviously frowned upon here simply because most people think that they know what's going to happen with the markets and just straight-up being wrong in the end. "Timing the market" doesn't specifically mean timing bottoms/tops, it literally means just trying to time in your buys/sells in general.

If you think you're over-invested, then you simply sell a certain amount that you're happy with. But of course, in the end it's your money; so if you want to go with your strategy, feel free to do so!

Quick tip: markets are usually not as predictable as people think

[crwth]

Why not invest in it incrementally? It's hard to time the market with anything, and it could go either way, so I think DCAing, as you have mentioned, starts ASAP, not in 2023 October. If you have the money now, why not just do it already? I think it does make sense if it goes up higher than expected these coming years, and you might not get the right timing if you were to get into it in 2023.

Here's some possibility:

What if we are already at the bear market level? This is true if we reach another ATH in the coming year and grow even more in price value. You will say that you should've bought it when it was still at this level. The same goes with if this is the ATH, then you would be off better at a lower price.

In this case, this is the reason why DCAing is good. At least you already have a position in the market, and you have set yourself up.

[Darker45]

I don't have the complete evidence for this but I assume that the most rewarded and successful people in Bitcoin are the HODLers. Those who think they are wise will pull out their Bitcoin when they think the market has reached its most bullish point and is about to face the bearish cycle. They will come back when the market is already at its most bearish point. When they are in Bitcoin already, they will again wait for the top and then convert, and when correction comes they'll buy again, and so on. But perfect timing can only be seen in hindsight.

I'm not sure how accurate your bases are but I've learned my lessons. I believe there is sufficient evidence that if you only stick to pure HODLing, you will be making the most money. HODL is the key to enjoy the best that Bitcoin can give.

[traderethereum]

Is it really timing the market though?

Timing meant buying at the lowest point and selling at the highest point which no one can predict.

But everyone knows what a bear market is and bear market lasts years typically. I am going to enter at ANY point in the bear market and DCA into it.

Likewise everyone knows what a bull market is and I am going to exit at ANY point within the bull market and a bull market lasts many months.

Timing the market is really important if you want to enter the market because you will know when you can enter the market using your analysis.
Maybe the time to enter the market between you and others will be different because you and they use different analyses.
Searching for the right timing to buy at the lowest price will be needed so you do not have to worry if the price moves down because you can buy at a low price.
But it is hard to enter the market at the right time as our analysis can be wrong, especially if the market moves wild.

[DannyHamilton]

Is it really timing the market though?

Timing meant buying at the lowest point and selling at the highest point which no one can predict.

But everyone knows what a bear market is and bear market lasts years typically. I am going to enter at ANY point in the bear market and DCA into it.

Likewise everyone knows what a bull market is and I am going to exit at ANY point within the bull market and a bull market lasts many months.

The problem is, it's entirely possible that the next serious bear market might not start until Bitcoin hits $250k.  At that point, the bear market could crash all the way down to $90k before it starts to recover.

If that happens, and you wait for the bear market to start before you buy, then you'll be buying somewhere above $90k when you could have bought below $65k now if you didn't wait.

Then, when the bear market starts to happen, how far will you wait to get back in?  Will you get in at $200k? $175k? $150k? Will you have the stomach to ride it from there all the way down to $90k?  If you try to wait to get in closer to $100k, what happens if the bear market bottoms out at $125k? Then you miss out on that run as well.

Trying to guess when you are in a bear market, or when you are in a bull market IS trying to time the market. Trying to wait for a bear market (and hoping that bear will be lower than the current price) IS trying to time the market.

If you sit out of Bitcoin you might, if you're lucky, be able to buy back in a bit cheaper than today.  However, if you are unlucky, there's a very good chance that you'll only be costing yourself the opportunity to grow more.

If the overall trend of bitcoin exchange rate over the long run is upwards, then mathematically, the more time you spend out of bitcoin the more your risk that the growth you miss is larger than the drop you avoid.

[Poker Player]

What do you guys think about my strategy? 

Lol.

A person who has supposedly "accidentaly" made over half a million dollars and not only openly discusses it on a forum but also and asks for advice, like a begginer who asks for advise on how to invest $200.

Are you part of some European royalty?

My advice. If you don't need that money, invest it in Bitcoin and forget about it for at least 4 years. If you are so nervous and have sold early, you probably need that money more than you think, and you shouldn't invest so much.

[pealr12]

Why not keep 50% and invest back 50%, if the market will run again you won't miss out completely, and if it is a bear market you still have 50% to fall back to or invest it during the bear market,
You have made a good sum but if I were in your shoes I will apply caution and take some profit, to me going all-in is not always the best plan, always good to have plan B

[mk4]

Lol.

A person who has supposedly "accidentaly" made over half a million dollars and not only openly discusses it on a forum but also and asks for advice, like a begginer who asks for advise on how to invest $200.

Are you part of some European royalty?

It sure is a huge amount of money, but it's really not that impossible though. Believe it or not a small minority of people can get really lucky and hit the jackpot with low cap altcoins; the Shiba Inu situation being a really good example. $15k -> $650k is uncommon but nowhere near impossible.

[Kakmakr]

I have been buying and selling bitcoin and other Crypto currencies for many years and I think the best strategy for me was this.

1. Buy the dip! (Not small amounts every week... rather save that fiat until the price drop and buy the dip)
2. Sell some coins when the price reach or surpass a new ATH. (Take some profits, this experiment might fail and you end up with no profit)
3. Never sell ALL your Crypto currencies. (One of them might go to the Moon, so you have to wait for it to happen)

This has been a very succesful strategy for me and I will never regret not taking profits and not having any Crypto currencies when it goes to the Moon!

[Anonylz]

What do you guys think about my strategy? 

Lol.

A person who has supposedly "accidentaly" made over half a million dollars and not only openly discusses it on a forum but also and asks for advice, like a begginer who asks for advise on how to invest $200.

Are you part of some European royalty?

My advice. If you don't need that money, invest it in Bitcoin and forget about it for at least 4 years. If you are so nervous and have sold early, you probably need that money more than you think, and you shouldn't invest so much.

A newbie can hit millions in a first time investment that doesn't give them the experience of someone who has been in crypto for years, perhaps this is the @op first investment at the time the market was bullish and he got lucky,
there is a difference between being lucky and having experience overtime, same situation the @op is going through happened to a close friend, he made a good amount back in 2017 but lack of experience made him lose it all, maybe if he had sought advice from experienced folks he would have made a better decision.

[pooya87]

I missed the boat in 2017 Bullrun and the subsequent crash taught me lessons that I will never forget and those lessons are deeply seared into my subconscious.

So, I cashed out with BTC at near ATH few days back.

In other words you haven't learned a thing
Back in 2017, $3000 was "at near ATH". I guess you already know that it was nowhere near the actual ATH but simply 2x of the previous bubble top (~$1000 in 2013).
Now in 2021, $60000 is the same 2x of the previous bubble top (!$20000 in 2017) and yet you panic sold your bitcoin because you thought it is like 2017 bubble top

I am not super happy though. If the bull run starts in the next few weeks and then extends over to the next 2 quarters and BTC reaches an ATH of around $200k to $250k per coin, I won't be able to forgive myself.

Another sign showing you haven't learned a thing!
If what you say happens, it won't happen over night. It will take price quite a while to reach $200k and $500k and nobody is stopping you from correcting your mistake and buying back!

At the same time if I ride the wave all the way up and all the way down and lose 90% of the value in the bag, I won't be able to deal with that at all.

Only shitcoins lose 90% of their value due to their uselessness.
Even if we assume the rise has stopped there is simply no way for bitcoin to repeat any of its historical massive drops since we are not even close to being in a bubble. And if price reaches a bubble it would be at $500k which means the bubble burst that follows would still bring the price down to $100k+ which is 70% higher than the current price!

Right now 100% of the crypto I have is in stable coins. 

Now I'm 100% sure you have no idea what you are doing since instead of actually exiting the market to something safe you have converted your secure and precious bitcoin to a centralized shitcoin that can disappear any time called "stablecoin"!

extend into ETH in 2024.

LOL another shitcoin.

invest in every new coins that gets listed in Binance

Another sign that you have no idea what you are doing.

[davis196]

So you've made 650K USD and you want financial advise from random people over the internet?
This is cringe,bruh...
You've made 650K USD and you want to make 10 times more?I'm like WTF.Are you greedy or something?
You can do whatever you want.Diversify your portfolio with various assets(don't buy altcoins,it's pointless),put your money into index funds,HODL a big portion of your crypto and use the smaller one to trade.There are many opportunities out there.
If I ever made 650K USD in profits,I would just retire without thinking about making more profits,but that's just me.
I live in a country,where life is relatively cheap.650K USD isn't that much,if you live in New York or Los Angeles.

[Poker Player]

It sure is a huge amount of money, but it's really not that impossible though. Believe it or not a small minority of people can get really lucky and hit the jackpot with low cap altcoins; the Shiba Inu situation being a really good example. $15k -> $650k is uncommon but nowhere near impossible.

Yes, I'm not saying it's impossible, I'm just skeptical about these kind of stories I read in the forums.

In any case, if he has hit the jackpot, that means that he was gambling, and not investing, so, he'd better get a lot of information before investing again, and that means not just reading some opinions in a forum. Alsol, he should invest only what he can lose.

If he has more than half a million dollars that he has obtained by gambling and he is not a rich person, I would take at least half of it and save it to buy a house, for example, or to finish paying the mortgage, if he has one, and then with the rest, to invest wisely.

pooya87 has made a good analysis. The OP, assuming what he says is true, reminds me of the guy who comes to the casino, hits the jackpot on the first spin and continues playing until he ends up losing everything.

[romeareo]

@Poker Player

Everything I posted is 100% true.

There is only one bad losing outcome that I find acceptable and that is Bitcoin becoming nearly worthless due to some govt. regulation or some super quantum computer breaking it etc. If I spend the next X amount of years HODLing / trading or timing whatever and then I lose everything because Bitcoin became worthless.. I am more than happy to accept that outcome. I would not have absolutely no regrets whatsoever. I will be at peace.


Apart from this one exact losing scenario, in every other case I want to win no matter what. i.e regardless of how the market behaves.

>> Are you part of some European royalty?

I am not European royalty and I recognize that I am behaving pretty casually with a decent amount of money. I really really need this $$. Really can't afford to screw it up.

>>  if he has hit the jackpot, that means that he was gambling, and not investing

yes, this is kind of true. I wasn't investing. I kind of gambled once. I will never ever gamble again.

My conviction is this: Other than Bitcoin every other coin is a shitcoin. Even BNB which is the backbone of crypto with their innovation. ETH is a close second. Other than these two coins, every other coin IS practically worth 0.


@Davis

>> You've made 650K USD and you want to make 10 times more?I'm like WTF.Are you greedy or something?

I definitely am losing a sense of perspective with regards to crypto money. I definitely don't want to lose whatever I gained. My thinking is if I have around $7 Million, I can diversify and be set for life.
But I suspect even $4 Million should be good enough. Maybe I will exit at $4 M. The problem is that too much FIAT is being printed. I have friends whose income basically more than doubled over the last few years.
At this point, I don't have that much faith in FIAT anymore.


@Pooya87
>> In other words you haven't learned a thing Cheesy
Back in 2017, $3000 was "at near ATH". I guess you already know that it was nowhere near the actual ATH but simply 2x of the previous bubble top (~$1000 in 2013).
Now in 2021, $60000 is the same 2x of the previous bubble top (!$20000 in 2017) and yet you panic sold your bitcoin because you thought it is like 2017 bubble top Cheesy

I panic sold because of two reasons:
1.  Crypto.com is currently the most downloaded free app in the US across all categories. ~ Nov 1st, 2021.
2.  People who previously scoffed at crypto and who were uninterested suddenly wanted to know all about it and reaching out for advice.

This is simply too eerie for me. Regardless of Bitcoin price if the two above situations start happening I will cash out every single time it happens.
But you are right in the sense that the market could end up in a short term bear market and then shoot up to $250k or even $500k .

My situation is this: because I already have $650k I don't really need to win THAT big. I don't need to 10x in the short term to make it. A 75% chance of 4xing is something that I will gladly accept.  

If Bitcoin falls down to $30k I will gladly convert it into 21 BTC (650k/30k = 21 BTC) and wouldn't mind HODLing that forever. I wouldn't even care if BTC starts dipping further behind than $30k.

@Anonylz

>> perhaps this is the @op first investment at the time the market was bullish and he got lucky

This is not my first investment. I just got lucky though.

@pealr12


>> Why not keep 50% and invest back 50%, if the market will run again you won't miss out completely, and if it is a bear market you still have 50% to fall back to or invest it during the bear market,
You have made a good sum but if I were in your shoes I will apply caution and take some profit, to me going all-in is not always the best plan, always good to have plan B Wink

Right now I have 100% of everything in stable coins. I will only invest $50k into crypto now. I am seriously considering buying 1 whole BTC even at the current price of $60k and forever HODLing it. It means a lot for me to have 1 complete Bitcoin. The only reason I am even considering investing $50k into crypto from now on is if I don't, I will start checking charts and FOMO in at the wrong time and lose a significant portion of my current gains.

@DannyHamilton

>> "The problem is, it's entirely possible that the next serious bear market might not start until Bitcoin hits $250k.  At that point, the bear market could crash all the way down to $90k before it starts to recover.

If that happens, and you wait for the bear market to start before you buy, then you'll be buying somewhere above $90k when you could have bought below $65k now if you didn't wait.

Then, when the bear market starts to happen, how far will you wait to get back in?  Will you get in at $200k? $175k? $150k? Will you have the stomach to ride it from there all the way down to $90k?  If you try to wait to get in closer to $100k, what happens if the bear market bottoms out at $125k? Then you miss out on that run as well."

You raise good points and it made me think. To be honest I highly suspect this could be a likely scenario. That's why I am thinking of buying 1 complete BTC today even at it's current high price of $60k. I would definitely prefer buying at $30k i.e go all in with 0 regrets. I have 0 appetite to go down a high volatility ride at this point.


@crwth

>>  so I think DCAing, as you have mentioned, starts ASAP, not in 2023 October

Seriously, seriously considering this. Atleast I want to start DCAing till everyone in my social circle stops talking about crypto and r/cryptocurrency starts doubting crypto. i.e Significant FUD.


@All. will reply more and keep everyone here posted with updates.

My end goal exit is this: Either 21 BTC one way or the other. Or $4 M to $7 M in USD. Both are acceptable goals for me.
I don't want to ever risk losing my $650k. Simply not acceptable for me.

[titular]

Even if we assume the rise has stopped there is simply no way for bitcoin to repeat any of its historical massive drops since we are not even close to being in a bubble. And if price reaches a bubble it would be at $500k which means the bubble burst that follows would still bring the price down to $100k+ which is 70% higher than the current price!

Why do we assume that if we saw a $500k bitcoin it would be considered a bubble?

Couldn't that $500k price be healthy growth when achieved in a realistic timeframe?

[Lucius]

The next Bitcoin halvening is early 2024. I want to start DCAing into BTC from 2023 October and slowly extend into ETH in 2024.
From the exact date of halvening I will convert my BTC into Altcoins and invest in every new coins that gets listed in Binance that year and other famous exchanges. I will also reserve 10% of the crypto for the fad of the summer i.e Similar to Defi, NFT, ICOs.

This should net me 15x to 20x if I get lucky.  So that's 15 x 650k = $10 Million and that should hopefully set me up for life.

What you are describing here has little to do with investing, it is more like gambling in the hope that you will be lucky. You base your strategy on the fact that the past will repeat itself, and that by investing in every altcoin that appears in that period, you will really profit - the reality is completely different in that case. I guess you live in the US and that's why you need millions of dollars to insure yourself for the rest of your life, but if you believe that Bitcoin will have a new big bull run after halving 2024, you can easily turn that $650k into a few million without any risk just by holding.

I might just lock up $600k in cold wallet and then play with $50k that way I won't feel left out of the action.

Your money, your risk, and your decision - but I think that would be the smartest decision for you. Whatever you decide, it is important that you do not gamble everything you have, because you will never be able to forgive yourself.