Target Price Methodology

[bitgolden]

Instead of going for imaginary target levels by your assumption, you should go for technical analysis to find out the probable peak price level and around that you should book profits then you may buy back with the help of same technical analysis.

You sound like practical and this is how we should make use of technical analysis for finding out target price levels. Unfortunately, I was not taught on how to book profits with the help of technical analysis but what I have learnt from books and mentors was, we should primarily focus on entry levels and for target levels we can go as per our own expectations on profits.

It is like if we prefer then we can book profit at 5% or at 20%; it is like highly self-driven based on individual's preferences.

[checkmatesir]

This assumptions may be due to the fact that some users face lots of losses due to impatience and not wait for the profit. It means that you should think about the profit that if you have profit up to 5% or may be 10% then you should sell that coin as the greed behaviour may be sometimes become the reason of your failure. Whenever the price become in  dip then at least wait for the initial price to rise as selling at low price can make you loss of capital.

[ranaprime]

I think business and emotion are two different things but I have to control them myself. Many times when we go beyond the set target in the hope of making more profit, we think that it should not be done at all. I need to have control. Therefore, it is important to follow a suitable target price methodology for buying or selling any asset.

[Sweetbtc]

A target price is AN estimate of the longer term value of a market. Target costs square measure supported earnings forecasts and assumed valuation multiples. ... whereas opinion-based ratings have restricted worth, target costs will facilitate investors judge the potential risk/reward profile of the market.

[palle11]

I need to have control. Therefore, it is important to follow a suitable target price methodology for buying or selling any asset.

It is nice to have control of our marketing strategy and that our price. If you don't have such control and allow emotions to take over our decision, it means we will keep going up and down profit and losses. The problem with trade is trying to make all the wealth at same trade and forgetting that we need to set a realistic target. Such realistic target gets us gradually into the big picture. Riding the market easily and gradually is the best and not to rush.

[jrrsparkles]

Many forum participants, giving advice to beginners about trading, talk about the need to set orders for one`s own target price and wait until the asset reaches it. Intuitively, I agree with this approach as it fits with my own strategy. But I wonder, can someone advise on what exactly the target price assumption should be based on? Of course, I know about fundamental and technical analysis, about the need to read the chart before opening or closing positions. But I'm rather interested in whether it is possible to deduce certain patterns, by what percentage the asset will grow over a certain time, e.g. 3 month, a year etc.? How can I be sure that my price can be set at 20% of the current price, and not at 10% or 35%? Now for me it looks more like guessing, and I often exit the position earlier, since I do not suppose that after 20% there may be another 15% growth, for example. I really would like to improve my target pricing skills.

It may not be easier for short term trading but for long term we can simply set our desired price and wait for it, to achieve it then make realistic targets and with cryptocurrencies you can even make 500% or more for each cycle so deciding factor is up to you and I will say let's wait until the price doubles so you can cash out the capital and let the profits to grow further so you can avoid taxes as well as zero risk.

[iv4n]

Target price isn't static as different factors affect target price. Capital is one of the key factors that decides how much profit target to set. But it's best to keep your profits realistic and achievable and it should be able to cover for losses when the occur. Having a fixed profit margin can be deceptive as trend changes and market volatility alternates

I agree with you, simply too many factors affect the price, so methodologies for getting some possible price targets don't work all the time... I would say it's like guessing, not some wild one, after checking all sorts of indicators you can make your prediction, but there's no 100% successful methodology!
It's why I like to trade in the long run, it's less complicated... you don't care about daily indicators, you just go with bull/bear markets and do the opposite from others! It's a bit waiting sometimes, but when you check yearly charts Bitcoin makes insane swings!

[joeperry]

Here's the thing, there is no such thing as fixed target price (10%, 20%, 50%) whenever you are doing technical analysis or trading it is more of an investment like waiting to have 20% before selling but if you are doing technical analysis no matter what time frame you will always have the profit zone and the stop loss zone every analysis have different price target (depending on how do you view the market) and the target price is not fixed so you read TA then do analysis where could be the top and bottom from where you are planning to enter but also consider the risk and reward ratio if it's not fit for your reward and ratio don't enter the trade and look for other opportunity.

[Hobo66]

Crypto market is highly uncertain you can overcome your losses by setting stop loss which will help you to get profit and reduce failure. It is not possible for the accurate prediction of price but people assesses about the price that if increase and go to mention time then they will sell that coin but they do not know that surely the price will go up or down these are just speculations.

[Sebas.tian]

This assumptions may be due to the fact that some users face lots of losses due to impatience and not wait for the profit. It means that you should think about the profit that if you have profit up to 5% or may be 10% then you should sell that coin as the greed behaviour may be sometimes become the reason of your failure. Whenever the price become in  dip then at least wait for the initial price to rise as selling at low price can make you loss of capital.

I agree with you, many users are experiencing losses from their crypto trading because they lack patient in their trading that is making them not to achieve a good Profit like other traders that apply patient in their trade. Applying patient to your long term investment will help you to recover all your losses you have experienced last year 2021. those that use this strategy to sell their coins, find it difficult to lose Profit at the end of the market because they believe once the Profit rate get to 10% or 15%, they can sell to achieve the Profit from the market.  

[AicecreaME]

Technical analysis is not to exactly predict the price in the future but only to give you idea on what might be the price in the future, because it could go sideways (that's why setting a stop loss and take profit) is very important.

So your question is on what price you'll set to take profit? The answer to that is depends on what price you are satisfied to take profits based on the technical analysis you have on a certain coin price chart movements. Because just like what I've said, technical analysis is not 100% accurate.

Always take profits when you're happy. A profit is still a profit, while your regret is not a profit at all.

[Etranger]

Technical analysis is not to exactly predict the price in the future but only to give you idea on what might be the price in the future, because it could go sideways (that's why setting a stop loss and take profit) is very important.

So your question is on what price you'll set to take profit? The answer to that is depends on what price you are satisfied to take profits based on the technical analysis you have on a certain coin price chart movements. Because just like what I've said, technical analysis is not 100% accurate.

Always take profits when you're happy. A profit is still a profit, while your regret is not a profit at all.

If I understood correctly, in your opinion the target price is more psychological thing, right? That`s why I should decide what would be satisfied procent for my profit and shove off it? Correcting it at the same time on the basis of technical analysis.

[GreatArkansas]

Many forum participants, giving advice to beginners about trading, talk about the need to set orders for one`s own target price and wait until the asset reaches it. Intuitively, I agree with this approach as it fits with my own strategy. But I wonder, can someone advise on what exactly the target price assumption should be based on? Of course, I know about fundamental and technical analysis, about the need to read the chart before opening or closing positions.
(.....)

Most traders have different approaches or ways to trade.
Another thing to consider here, like how to identify your target/entry/stop-loss is using Risk Management.

Risk management will help you to make a good trader, it is like minimizing your loss while maximizing your profits. Here comes the risk:reward ratio where will help you to identify how you are willing to lose for this trade or for this target, in short, you are willing to risk x amount to achieve your target x amount.

[Etranger]

Most traders have different approaches or ways to trade.
Another thing to consider here, like how to identify your target/entry/stop-loss is using Risk Management.

Risk management will help you to make a good trader, it is like minimizing your loss while maximizing your profits. Here comes the risk:reward ratio where will help you to identify how you are willing to lose for this trade or for this target, in short, you are willing to risk x amount to achieve your target x amount.

Do I understand correctly that the selection of this ratio will vary from case to case? And also if I am willing to to risk x amount to achieve your target x amount, should I wait until I get this target amount even if I loose some part of investment when the price goes down at first? Shouldn`t I close the position with a loss in this case and just start over?

[Mpamaegbu]

Intuitively, I agree with this approach as it fits with my own strategy.

It's best to stick to what works for you. Don't conform to the speculation of the crowd to place any form of authenticity on your action. That will be seeking unnecessary validation from the crowd. Most times, the crowd is wrong.

But I wonder, can someone advise on what exactly the target price assumption should be based on?

Trading, at best, is based on speculation. A lot of traders  look at certain levels which are merely psychological to trigger or exit trades. It works most times because if everyone is looking at the same thing at the  same time, naturally they will react same way at the same time. These levels are often the round up numbers most times like $35,000, $40,000, $$45,000, etc. We even saw it yesterday when price got to $39,940+ and reverted. Since it's declining now, it's likely that more traders and investors will wait at the $35,000 region to trigger a buy. All that is psychology and away from TA. However, if any of those levels falls within a support or resistance level it should not be ignored.

[Oshosondy]

But I'm rather interested in whether it is possible to deduce certain patterns, by what percentage the asset will grow over a certain time, e.g. 3 month, a year etc.? How can I be sure that my price can be set at 20% of the current price, and not at 10% or 35%? Now for me it looks more like guessing, and I often exit the position earlier, since I do not suppose that after 20% there may be another 15% growth, for example. I really would like to improve my target pricing skills.

From what I read, it is like you will prefer swing trading, swing trading is not about thinking of a certain percentage profit, it is about just leave your trade for long term and see the profit you have gained. You can at times set your goal to be 20% profit and it can be more or less, but most likely more. One thing about trading is that we should not be greedy, you will need to make your own goals about the percentage gain you want, all is based on sentiment, the gain might be more or less, but I do not use take profit for swing trading, I just leave the trade like that until I gain in a way that I am pleased with and when I know the market direction can not be easy to predict.

[Etranger]

A lot of traders  look at certain levels which are merely psychological to trigger or exit trades. It works most times because if everyone is looking at the same thing at the  same time, naturally they will react same way at the same time. These levels are often the round up numbers most times like $35,000, $40,000, $$45,000, etc. We even saw it yesterday when price got to $39,940+ and reverted. Since it's declining now, it's likely that more traders and investors will wait at the $35,000 region to trigger a buy.

Doesn't this approach make me hostage to the crowd? If most people tend to focus on round prices, and I know that, shouldn't I move against the crowd? You said that

It's best to stick to what works for you. Don't conform to the speculation of the crowd to place any form of authenticity on your action. That will be seeking unnecessary validation from the crowd. Most times, the crowd is wrong.

From what I read, it is like you will prefer swing trading, swing trading is not about thinking of a certain percentage profit, it is about just leave your trade for long term and see the profit you have gained. You can at times set your goal to be 20% profit and it can be more or less, but most likely more. One thing about trading is that we should not be greedy, you will need to make your own goals about the percentage gain you want, all is based on sentiment, the gain might be more or less, but I do not use take profit for swing trading, I just leave the trade like that until I gain in a way that I am pleased with and when I know the market direction can not be easy to predict.

What will you reccomend me to do, when I have a goal, e.g. 20%, I am waiting for it (more or less), but I noticed that the price began to move in a different direction, not as I expected, and the value of the asset is lower than I bought. How do I know that selling with a small loss is better than waiting for a large-scale collapse and not waiting for 20% growth? And how should I understand when this loss is small and it is better to have time to get out of position?

[Oshosondy]

What will you reccomend me to do, when I have a goal, e.g. 20%, I am waiting for it (more or less), but I noticed that the price began to move in a different direction, not as I expected, and the value of the asset is lower than I bought. How do I know that selling with a small loss is better than waiting for a large-scale collapse and not waiting for 20% growth? And how should I understand when this loss is small and it is better to have time to get out of position?

The reason people should be panic is because they use high margin, I can still consider 2x margin for bitcoin to be good but 1x is the best to have a safer trading strategy, also especially for altcoins which are most volatile. Recently I do not trade all because the market did not hit my target which are $32000 dip then I will open a long position, or $42000 increase to open a short position. People have to be very careful of the price they want to open a position.

The market is more bearish than bulllsih like I have said, the $40000 support is now the resistance price, very possible the price of bitcoin may increase again but in a way the increase will not be much and lesser than the dip. If you are losing, likely you may like to turn it into holding especially if you use 1x as you open long position, your money will never be liquidated, the price of bitcoin can go more low but a time is coming the price will increase more than the price you open the position. If you use high leverage, you may want to cut loss, but the market is not that volatile recently, but still depends on the leverage used.

[justdimin]

The market is more bearish than bulllsih like I have said, the $40000 support is now the resistance price, very possible the price of bitcoin may increase again but in a way the increase will not be much and lesser than the dip. If you are losing, likely you may like to turn it into holding especially if you use 1x as you open long position, your money will never be liquidated, the price of bitcoin can go more low but a time is coming the price will increase more than the price you open the position. If you use high leverage, you may want to cut loss, but the market is not that volatile recently, but still depends on the leverage used.

I am pretty sure that people who use leverage do not do it for just 2x that frequently, and even if they do, they are not the ones at risk. People who do 10x at least or even more are the people who make the real risks, they are taking those risks because they could make a lot more in profit as well. Your 100 bucks could turn into 1000 bucks very easily, all depending on the right moment and right movement.

This is why they are taking those risks, sure it is not easy and sure you could lose it all but think about it like gambling, people spend tens of billions of dollars on gambling every year, and leverage is not really that different from it.

[Benefactor]

I think everybody and myself fall into the classification of speculating, but instead than speculating without reason, it's vastly improved to figure with our own reasons. This is great however, it will work like stop misfortune and as a matter of fact it will be a stop misfortune and benefit check for you.