"Is the bubble about to burst?"

[matjas]

The situation is certainly not ideal for us who follow what is happening in crypto. I am sure a lot of new small investors dont have any idea, how fast can things go south especially because way too much money goes to meme shitcoins and NTFs. For me, NTFs could be the new MtGox, there is just now way all that much content will keep the value in the future.

[1714038550]

1714038550

[pooya87]

However, I'm pointing out that these few people, who are holding most of Bitcoin, can definitely play a vital role in the market.

They can but they don't.
Most early adopters aren't participating in the market, they own bitcoin either through mining or having bought it and are either holding it or using it (getting paid or paying others) as a currency. That doesn't affect the market in any ways.

Your observation about the article is correct though. The view of the author is a naive one that I believe mainly comes from looking at useless tokens and altcoins that are created to only be pumped and dumped. If you look at other posts by the author they are always talking about doomsday of financial markets with similar naive interpretations. The author also seems to have a great love for possible central bank issued shitcoin which tells you a lot about their views.

[Ultegra134]

However, I'm pointing out that these few people, who are holding most of Bitcoin, can definitely play a vital role in the market.

They can but they don't.
Most early adopters aren't participating in the market, they own bitcoin either through mining or having bought it and are either holding it or using it (getting paid or paying others) as a currency. That doesn't affect the market in any ways.

Your observation about the article is correct though. The view of the author is a naive one that I believe mainly comes from looking at useless tokens and altcoins that are created to only be pumped and dumped. If you look at other posts by the author they are always talking about doomsday of financial markets with similar naive interpretations. The author also seems to have a great love for possible central bank issued shitcoin which tells you a lot about their views.

Just had a look around to confirm what you said, most of their articles are focused on endless economic bubbles that are all about to burst or talking about the cryptocurrency bubble we've been hearing for quite a few years now. I don't believe that any kind of "Financial reset" is going to happen, regarding cryptos, I get that there can be periods where the market is bearish for quite a few months (or even a few years, back in 2017), and it's actually normal to be honest.

[freedomgo]

While I get that most of Bitcoin is being held by a small percentage of addresses, I'm trying to understand what exactly the point is. Is the article indirectly implying that BTC and crypto in general also being manipulated to a great degree, creating a hype bubble which will eventually burst? You, as someone who looks like he's experienced with such incidents, what do you believe? Are we in a manipulated bubble about to burst? Or did I get it all wrong?

So what? Its always like that and you will never change it. Some people work 10h daily, are smart, brave, others live from social benefits. Some are focused on their hobbies, other or addictions (drugs, alcohol, pornography), others on earning and multiplying capital. One person buy new iPhone as soon as he manage to save 1000$ other use this money to start business or invest in others business. People are different so their wealth must be different.

 Its not about who have how many bitcoins. Bitcoin was not created in a way that everyone have 0.01 BTC and force people not to have more or less. Its impossible and in fact it blocks its main purpose (transfer of value).
Once again. Bitcoin was not made to make everyone wealth equal. It was made (one of its purpose) to make everyone chances equal. To transfer value without restrictions, to obtain asset that is not printed out of thin air by single centralized identity. Asset that its purchasing power did not decrease 95% in last 100 years (only because of printing and no max supply). Asset that cannot be seized by anyone.

Focus on your wealth and how you can multiply it instead of looking at others wallets.

I certainly agree, I never implied that Bitcoin was created in order to evenly distribute wealth. However, I'm pointing out that these few people, who are holding most of Bitcoin, can definitely play a vital role in the market. We all had our fair chances of obtaining Bitcoin, and most of us didn't, there's no one to blame for that. Bitcoin (and cryptocurrencies in general) provide us with capabilities that fiat currency cannot. 

Because of that, bitcoin has received negative criticism from fiat lovers who are now saying that bitcoin is a bubble and anytime it could burst out. I don't think they should blame bitcoin for whatsoever reasons because the people have chose to invest and hold it since there are a lot of potentials in bitcoin that they can't find in fiat. And now, since bitcoin is having a hard time to recover again, they are now starting to spread negativity on bitcoin again and predicting that any time it will bound to end.

However, this is not new for us as bitcoin and crypto has been always attacked by close minded people. We just have to let them say their own opinions and continue minding on our own business.

[TheNineClub]

Thank you for the article. I am yet to read it, but I will still put in my 2 cents. When we are talking about a bubble burst, we need to differentiate between a complete collapse of crypto (when it bursts) or just a restructure/reset. The complete collaps I don't buy. This has passed the point of no return and it will remain for the foreseeable future.

The restructuring/resetting part is more likely, however, crypto has been in that type of transition for the past 10 years, so that reset comes (on some level) with every cycle and some kind of restructuring is going on constantly. So the types of headlines that eye grab by saying something impactful will happen suddenly are just that, clickbait. All of this is a gradual and ongoing transition and a process where this is still too young of a concept to even be considered as a potential bubble burst.

[aoluain]

While I get that most of Bitcoin is being held by a small percentage of addresses, I'm trying to understand what exactly the point is. Is the article indirectly implying that BTC and crypto in general also being manipulated to a great degree, creating a hype bubble which will eventually burst? You, as someone who looks like he's experienced with such incidents, what do you believe? Are we in a manipulated bubble about to burst? Or did I get it all wrong?

So what? Its always like that and you will never change it. Some people work 10h daily, are smart, brave, others live from social benefits. Some are focused on their hobbies, other or addictions (drugs, alcohol, pornography), others on earning and multiplying capital. One person buy new iPhone as soon as he manage to save 1000$ other use this money to start business or invest in others business. People are different so their wealth must be different.

 Its not about who have how many bitcoins. Bitcoin was not created in a way that everyone have 0.01 BTC and force people not to have more or less. Its impossible and in fact it blocks its main purpose (transfer of value).
Once again. Bitcoin was not made to make everyone wealth equal. It was made (one of its purpose) to make everyone chances equal. To transfer value without restrictions, to obtain asset that is not printed out of thin air by single centralized identity. Asset that its purchasing power did not decrease 95% in last 100 years (only because of printing and no max supply). Asset that cannot be seized by anyone.

Focus on your wealth and how you can multiply it instead of looking at others wallets.

I certainly agree, I never implied that Bitcoin was created in order to evenly distribute wealth. However, I'm pointing out that these few people, who are holding most of Bitcoin, can definitely play a vital role in the market. We all had our fair chances of obtaining Bitcoin, and most of us didn't, there's no one to blame for that. Bitcoin (and cryptocurrencies in general) provide us with capabilities that fiat currency cannot. 

Absolutely! what is the alternative?
FIAT, that thing which we are trying to escape
Gold, not practical

I have read the article and there are some interesting points, is it designed to spread FUD?

I would need to read it again to fully get my head around it but one thing stood out purely because
its something I have been thinking about for a while and that is in this line from the article

..... In fact, a new power has risen alongside the existing financial aristocracy: the crypto elite, who’s secretly formed a monopoly behind the scenes.

There is an elite and there is definitely market manipulation designed to relieve
us of your Bitcoin. The manipulation can burst a bubble, whatever bubble that is but it still
remains that in these current times Bitcoin is the only escape from the current financial
system and there are still only going to be < 21,000,000

[pealr12]

Anybody can write what they feel or think will happen but at the end nature will take it's natural course, people say so much about btc bubble since from beginning and till now it hasn't happened and if it will happen nobody can know that for sure, to me it is the same with people directing their frustration on fiat and how the whole financial institutions are going down, but none has happened yet, so I won't worry much about all these writers trying to gain followers and attention.

[so98nn]

This article is an example of how system is disrupted when it is perfect and is about to give you freedom. Bitcoin is that bubble which is so big that the whole universe is sitting inside it and no one would ever care if it exists or it is going to burst because its just making the progression in right direction. I have thought this through many times, year by year bitcoin is anyways going upwards as the emission keeps going on and on. With the 2024 we will have next bitcoin halving cycle, before that we will see massive dump in the bitcoin to overcome the miners rewards, profits, so that they can earn some handsome fortune after the halving is complete and reward is reduced.
Obviously today there are many rivals that are taking birth who will keep blaming the system whenever bitcoin literally falls in price. Thats the idiotic expression of these guys, they are the kind who will say yes I like the bitcoin when its going up and they will hate it when its dumping. Lolz.

[Ultegra134]

While I get that most of Bitcoin is being held by a small percentage of addresses, I'm trying to understand what exactly the point is. Is the article indirectly implying that BTC and crypto in general also being manipulated to a great degree, creating a hype bubble which will eventually burst? You, as someone who looks like he's experienced with such incidents, what do you believe? Are we in a manipulated bubble about to burst? Or did I get it all wrong?

So what? Its always like that and you will never change it. Some people work 10h daily, are smart, brave, others live from social benefits. Some are focused on their hobbies, other or addictions (drugs, alcohol, pornography), others on earning and multiplying capital. One person buy new iPhone as soon as he manage to save 1000$ other use this money to start business or invest in others business. People are different so their wealth must be different.

 Its not about who have how many bitcoins. Bitcoin was not created in a way that everyone have 0.01 BTC and force people not to have more or less. Its impossible and in fact it blocks its main purpose (transfer of value).
Once again. Bitcoin was not made to make everyone wealth equal. It was made (one of its purpose) to make everyone chances equal. To transfer value without restrictions, to obtain asset that is not printed out of thin air by single centralized identity. Asset that its purchasing power did not decrease 95% in last 100 years (only because of printing and no max supply). Asset that cannot be seized by anyone.

Focus on your wealth and how you can multiply it instead of looking at others wallets.

I certainly agree, I never implied that Bitcoin was created in order to evenly distribute wealth. However, I'm pointing out that these few people, who are holding most of Bitcoin, can definitely play a vital role in the market. We all had our fair chances of obtaining Bitcoin, and most of us didn't, there's no one to blame for that. Bitcoin (and cryptocurrencies in general) provide us with capabilities that fiat currency cannot. 

Because of that, bitcoin has received negative criticism from fiat lovers who are now saying that bitcoin is a bubble and anytime it could burst out. I don't think they should blame bitcoin for whatsoever reasons because the people have chose to invest and hold it since there are a lot of potentials in bitcoin that they can't find in fiat. And now, since bitcoin is having a hard time to recover again, they are now starting to spread negativity on bitcoin again and predicting that any time it will bound to end.

However, this is not new for us as bitcoin and crypto has been always attacked by close minded people. We just have to let them say their own opinions and continue minding on our own business.

Hasn't this, however, been going on for ages? I mean, I've entered the Bitcoin scene back in approximately 2013 or 2014, all I've been hearing since then was rumors about the upcoming bubble which is going to burst, every time it crashed. I'm pretty used to it and not slightly concerned to be honest. Let me also point out that the previous February/March, the market was bearish for quite a few months before it fully recovered, the same rumors kept popping up.

[pawanjain]

We have seen the so called "bubble" burst quite a few times in the history of bitcoin and still here we are going for the next ATH very soon.
It's quite normal for bitcoin to get dumped at such short intervals because of it's volatility and an open market.
Since there's nobody to control it people will buy and sell in huge loads of money and there will be nobody to ask them about it.
Right bitcoin has become stable at $54k which is still almost double than the price it was at the beginning of the year.
Even if it falls below $50k I won't be surprised since bitcoin does have these corrections occasionally.

[Tytanowy Janusz]

I certainly agree, I never implied that Bitcoin was created in order to evenly distribute wealth. However, I'm pointing out that these few people, who are holding most of Bitcoin, can definitely play a vital role in the market. We all had our fair chances of obtaining Bitcoin, and most of us didn't, there's no one to blame for that. Bitcoin (and cryptocurrencies in general) provide us with capabilities that fiat currency cannot.  

But whats the problem with this? No matter how much bitcoins is in hands of few richest wallets ... they still cant control your bitcoins, can't seize them, can't take them from you, can't print more than max supply. All they can do is "manipulate"price but you also need to know that its not that easy... Even if you own 100 000 BTCs and you aim to short them at 60k push price down to 20k and buy back .... you never know if your sell older wont hit into FEDs (or other county central bank) unlimited money buy wall because of secretly building reserves in bitcoin... And you end up with fiats that's value continuously go to zero and problem with buying back your stack without pushing price to 100k.

Some people (f.e author of article) seams to not know that life is so much better and so much easier when you are focused on building your own wealth rather than crying about the fact that other people are richer and blame them for everything bad that happens to you.

[masterrex]

IMO, I believe in the saying "history repeats itself, so that's the thing we should be concerned about and we should be ready for that event just in case. but I believe it will not happen until the second quarter of the year 2022 and maybe it can go back below $20K but today the market is slowly catching up but not for Bitcoin for what reason I don't know? but one thing is for sure the so-called bubble will burst again. Anyway thanks for the article I guess some of it was true but mostly is just speculation it's a crypto thing whether we like it or not we should accept it. 

[fiulpro]

The bubble is honestly something that in most cases is made up of doubts, doubts about uncertainty of the crypto market which does mean that people would honestly make assumptions about the market and some of the times it's those *FUD's* which fuels such crashes. I do think that the volatility is something that is an important part of crypto market therefore I do think that even if we talk about the history repeating itself people would still be able to :
Benefit from the day trading
Hold for long term after investing during the low time
There might be a lot of companies pooling it though which I do think can centralize the whole thing. Mt. Gox funds are something which are going to be released sooner or later and it's *right* for the investors as well. Just hold for the long time, have patience and everything else would be great, as long as you don't encash, you don't loose.

[franky1]

hoarders do not play the day to day markets.
having coins in cold store has no effect on the bitcoin price.

majority of coins on exchanges are new coins that move in and out regularly within the last 12 months

its the active investors that want to buy and sell regular that play the markets
and there is a known paradigm they play.

you can actually study the UTXO set and measure the price a utxo is created and set a price to each one of when it was acquired.
you can then measure percentages of these coins of how much % of those coins were acquired at what price level.

and see where some 'resistance' levels are where people wont sell below

..
also
if its cheap to mine in their country, much cheaper than to buy.. they will mine.
if its too expensive to mine. they will buy.

so you can measure this out too.. not really accurately because location info is not available. but you can guess the lowest most cheapest mining cost to work out the deepest bottom price people would dare sell for

at the moment the most efficient asic and the cheapest electric rate puts bitcoins mining bottomline value at about $30k right now. so thats the lowest level anyone on the planet in the active market/mining sector can get bitcoin.
with the market price being $55k the speculative bubble is about $25k (difference between $30k to $55k)
so its not even 2x of 'value'

back when the first ATH of over $60k hit in previous year the bottomline value was ~$21k giving it then a 3x
so this weeks $55k is not a massive bubble.

but if it was to burst. you would see resistance at like $47k where europe, and $40k where american average electric and costs puts them at the paradigm choice to give up mining and just buy as its cheaper


so to put it short
anyone thinking bitcoin can 'burst' and go down to zero. has no clue about the market play. and the value resistance.

at this moment even the most expensive energy price country does not have mining costs at over $75k so everyone on the planet could mine cheaper if the price went north of $70k so there is not much reason to pressure the price up to $100k
yes there might be some social drama media hype that causes a temporary bubble spike. but there is nothing sustainable to suggest bitcoin can go to and stay at $100k any time soon

[Anonylz]

Nothing is about to burst, this is a normal market correction which most of the crypto community people already use to, it is funny how the news sources operate, the moment the market is moving in a positive direction, all the good news and different predictions will fly, and once the market drops, they see the end,

Why will the bubble burst when crypto has advanced tremendously, a country has legalized the use of btc, there is Bitcoin city, some government officials taking their paycheck in btc, some btc old wallets are accumulating more even now and other important things happening, most of this news source just want to attract readers to their page.

[The Cryptovator]

The article was too long, just try to read some parts and realize what he wants to say. Those who don’t like Bitcoin or missed the Bitcoin train will always provide you with the reason why they don't like it. And the reasons and points will look valid to you because they are trying to wash your brain. I admit that Satoshi's goal hasn't been achieved hundreds of percent, but it's on the way to achievement. Most of us do not realize the technical use of Bitcoin, rather than we are just looking to make a profit from the volatility. That's what haters don't like actually and they always try to prove us wrong. It does a matter who is against Bitcoin, the Bitcoin community become mature enough and I don't think we have to care about this type of article.

[Tytanowy Janusz]

Nothing is about to burst, this is a normal market correction

So far .... But when it will develops to 80% dump ... no one know. In 2021 from 2.9T $ MC to 0,6T $ or in 2023 from 20T to 4T ... But sooner or later chart that did 10x in one years needs to stop and It wont be a sideways movement.

Why will the bubble burst when crypto has advanced tremendously, a country has legalized the use of btc, there is Bitcoin city, some government officials taking their paycheck in btc, some btc old wallets are accumulating more even now and other important things happening, most of this news source just want to attract readers to their page.

Marketcap went x10 in one years. Does all you just mentioned pushed crypto fundamentals 10x in last years. I guess not. You also need to know that fundamentals work in very long term. Like 5-10 years. Short term price action (0-2 years) are connected more to traders emotions, uncertainty in the market, amount of money on the market or investment alternatives (interest rates) etc. So its super likely that we will see few years of bear market now with 80% dump and another bull run right after.

[Ararbermas]

People used that words because how bitcoin always collapse after making all time high value , or should we say the whole crypto market..? Because ever since before that's how the market works and infact there are some people saying its like a roller-coaster as well which is true because the price can be manipulate in a very low level because of some whales in the market.. Reason many people and investors until now were afraid to ride on it because of that factors especially how risky it is..

[UmerIdrees]

The situation is certainly not ideal for us who follow what is happening in crypto. I am sure a lot of new small investors dont have any idea, how fast can things go south especially because way too much money goes to meme shitcoins and NTFs. For me, NTFs could be the new MtGox, there is just now way all that much content will keep the value in the future.

If you are old in crypto, you should not be panic of these dumps as such dumps won't last forever and eventually every crypto currency rises again.

Also i think that NFT has a very good use case and the hype of NFT wont die away. NFTs are not only used for digital art but we see many games have built-in NFT characters.

[Coyster]

If you are old in crypto, you should not be panic of these dumps as such dumps won't last forever and eventually every crypto currency rises again.

I don't take this to be totally true, if the crypto in question is Bitcoin, then it could be correct as Bitcoin is a long term project that's sustainable and has an actual use case, thus it could undergo correction periods and plunges, but it would eventually rise back up again, that's cause the demand will continue to rise and grow, with the influx of institutional investors, prominent individuals and the rest, Bitcoin is surely going to be around for the long term.

But having said that, I can't think the same of "every crypto", there are many pump and dump coins, lottery coins, useless/scam coins, etc, many of them are going to pump and then dump and never rise again, some others will just be pumped to scam people, and afterwards they'll dump forever, that's the situation with crypto, I believe only Bitcoin and a few other coins (like ethereum) can be trusted not to just dump outrightly.