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Author Topic: The U.S. is considering a radical rethinking of the digital dollar (CBDCs)  (Read 107 times)
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February 07, 2022, 09:16:19 PM
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Since its establishment as the country's national currency, the dollar has undergone many updates and changes, but nothing compares to the proposal being debated today.

The U.S. is gingerly considering whether to adopt a digital version of its currency, one better suited for today's increasingly cashless world, ushering in what could be one of the dollar's most fundamental transformations.

In that scenario, the U.S. would not only mint the coins and print paper bills but also issue digital cash, or a central bank digital currency (CBDC), that would be stored in apps or "digital wallets" on our smartphones.

We could then use them to pay for things, just like we do with Venmo or Apple Pay, and no physical money would change hands.

It's a vision of a cashless future that other countries are already embracing. China, for example, has unveiled the digital yuan on a trial basis. India this week said it would create a digital rupee.

Now the U.S. is weighing whether it wants to get into the game.

Last month, the Federal Reserve released a much-anticipated paper, laying out the advantages and disadvantages of a digital currency.

The Fed says it's a first step, meant to kick-start an important conversation among policymakers and to gather feedback from average people to some of the country's largest financial institutions.

Here's what to know about the digital dollar.

So, how would it actually work?

Policymakers stress these are early days yet, and there is a lot that needs to be hammered out. All in all, the transactions conducted with digital dollars probably wouldn't seem too different from existing private alternatives that allow us to pay for things by bringing our smartphones next to digital readers.

China, for example, allows digital yuan payments in the cities in which the country is piloting its digital currency, allowing citizens to make payments via an app set up by the government.

Why pursue a digital currency?

Reducing or eliminating fees is one clear benefit.

When you make a contactless payment today, it may seem immediate, but according to Chris Giancarlo, the former chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, a lot happens behind the scenes.

"My mobile device tells his mobile device to inform a whole series of banks, to confirm who I am, how much money is in my bank, that there is enough money to move from my bank to his bank," he says.

And at each step of the way, there are transaction fees. In 2020, they added up to more than $110 billion, which was generally shouldered by businesses.

With a digital dollar, you could in theory eliminate those middlemen. If you wanted to buy a sandwich, for instance, you could transfer money from a digital wallet directly to a cashier.

It wouldn't necessarily entirely eliminate nongovernment players. In China, for example, users who want to use the digital yuan can go to banks to add money to their digital wallets.

But just having digital dollars in circulation could put pressure on credit card companies and payment processors to lower fees to be competitive. That is, if enough people start using the Fed-run version.

In China, adoption of the e-renminbi has been slow given that private providers such as WeChat or Alipay are already pretty popular and entrenched.

Another argument for creating a digital dollar is to open up digital transactions to Americans who don't have bank accounts. According to the Fed, more than 5% of U.S. households are "unbanked."

Providing them with a digital wallet would allow people to participate in our increasingly cashless financial system.

It would also make it easier for the federal government to distribute benefits.. For example, having a digital dollar in place during the pandemic could have allowed the government to transfer relief payments directly into digital wallets.

What are the challenges?

Without question, one of the biggest issues is privacy. Because the Fed would implement and oversee the project, the central bank could accrue a vast amount of data, potentially giving it a lot more visibility into everyone's financial life.

That could be useful to regulators who want to combat money laundering, for example, but it would also raise serious privacy concerns.

That makes it critical to sort out how much information the Fed would have, according to Raghuram Rajan, a professor of finance at The University of Chicago Booth School of Business and a former governor of the Reserve Bank of India.

"There will be legitimate questions about how much the government knows about each individual, and also, how much it can act to restrain activities by individuals," he says.

Cybersecurity is another critical issue, especially given the uptick in hacks and heists at cryptocurrency exchanges.

To implement a digital dollar, the U.S. government would need to modernize the country's financial infrastructure to stave off attacks.

So what's next?

Fed Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues are moving ahead cautiously and methodically.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Boston is also expected to release the results of its research into the technological challenges associated with implementing a CBDC in the U.S.

It would take five to 10 years to introduce a digital currency in the U.S., several experts say, but they argue policymakers can't sit idly by.

There is concern that by moving slowly, the U.S. is letting other countries shape standards for national digital currencies, and the popularity of the dollar could be diminished.

After all, for decades, it has been the world's primary reserve currency, meaning many countries hold their reserves in U.S. dollars.

But Powell has made it clear he's in no hurry. Last year, a reporter asked the central banker whether he was worried the U.S. was falling behind countries like China.

"I think it's more important to do this right than to do it fast," he replied.

https://www.npr.org/2022/02/06/1072406109/digital-dollar-federal-reserve-apple-pay-venmo-cbdc


....


It seems we have a few interesting adjustments being considered for US CBDCs over past announced drafts for the technology.

1.)  They are beginning to discuss CBDC support for unbanked demographics.

2.)  Cutting middle men and inefficiencies out of system the way some cryptocurrencies do is being acknowledged.

3.)  Competition between a central bank issued digital CBDC and traditional payment merchants visa/mastercard as well as 3rd party payment apps is also being acknowledged.

4.)  #2 could imply a decentralized design which could by nature be more efficient than a monolithic centralized system.

There are other points which might be deduced by some of the topics mentioned.

Long story short, it appears CBDCs are undergoing a radical evolution over previous drafts.
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February 08, 2022, 12:49:34 PM
 #2

I agree at least with the conclusions, this is not about being first but about getting it right. The economic spheres of influence and the confidence on a certain currency do not change quickly except in events of war or other catastrophic situations, so the fact that the Yuan is digitised first will not make a significant impact on the large movements and big financial actors confidence or uses.

By the way, cutting the middleman as in not banks?

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February 08, 2022, 12:52:51 PM
 #3

Will China and US not engage in power tussle as they both keep proving their strength in economics and technological advancement, will the rule of power not flapping in the hand of US as China is proving a unending continuous eagerness in all areas of the economy, recently they launch of digital yuan CBDC and has also created opportunity to the massive use of a block chain technology.

The US Federal Reserve from their own end also has come up with it digital dollar CBDC and was run on a test to perform about 1.7 millions transactions per second, this came up after the China launch of it digital Yuan and the two countries are both on a competitive race in showing self approved. China in  the nearest future not going to overpower US in everything and tend to cease the rule of power from US?
Because to me US tend to create a follow up on every advancement achieved successfully by China.



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February 08, 2022, 01:38:41 PM
 #4

All of sudden every country is thinking about their digital currency now. Even with the India same case is happening as they published the Indian rupee in digital form to be established by year 2023 first quarter.

Does anyone see a connection here with crypto currencies and country to country formation of digital local currencies?

Slowly all of them are entering into the parallel universe to keep with thr ever changing requirement of their people. I mean they are literally trying to form these currencies so that they can invest into it and go away from the cryptocurrency (?)

Moreover, being the government formed asset people can easily trust them whether it’s low class people or rich, they will get pulled into this scheme.

Would it be reverse charge on crypto currency???
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February 09, 2022, 03:48:51 PM
 #5

This is basically a method for them to gather money without using taxes, that's it. Do you really believe that Tether gives you anything? Tether "sold" tens of billions of dollars worth of nothing, and people assumed it had a backing and that is it. Imagine how much more valuable it would be and how much more trust there would be if the USA government did the same thing.

If people are willing to trust a company as much as 100 billion dollars, they would certainly do it for the USA government as well. Then they could just keep on doing whatever corrupt thing they do with that money, give it to some gun manufacturer I suppose or bomb maker, and then if people ever want their money back, they could simply print it without a problem.

This is as bad as it gets for the governments, they are failing to get taxes because people are poor enough that they can't even pay their taxes properly anymore.

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February 16, 2022, 10:02:36 AM
 #6

All of sudden every country is thinking about their digital currency now. Even with the India same case is happening as they published the Indian rupee in digital form to be established by year 2023 first quarter.

Does anyone see a connection here with crypto currencies and country to country formation of digital local currencies?

Slowly all of them are entering into the parallel universe to keep with thr ever changing requirement of their people. I mean they are literally trying to form these currencies so that they can invest into it and go away from the cryptocurrency (?)

Moreover, being the government formed asset people can easily trust them whether it’s low class people or rich, they will get pulled into this scheme.

Would it be reverse charge on crypto currency???
A year or two ago, there was information that about 80 percent of all states were considering the possibility of issuing their digitized national currencies of central banks (CBDC) or even taking steps to issue them. Almost all states highly appreciated the blockchain technology used on their basis and had a positive attitude towards this possibility. I just don’t even understand why we don’t see practical results. Recently, the European Union finally decided on a plan to release its digitized euro and promise to launch it as early as 2025. Therefore, it is not surprising that the United States is already planning a similar one. Large states are already far behind China in this regard, where the digitized yuan is almost ready.

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February 16, 2022, 06:55:08 PM
 #7

Long story short, it appears CBDCs are undergoing a radical evolution over previous drafts.

Not sure what you mean by a radical evolution here! From the core, it will remain as a fiat money. They are possibly thinking of some extra way of usage but that's not something which can be termed as radical. This is what the government should have done decades ago, to be honest! But instead they have provided license to a middleman called bank which has now captured the market and its root is so deep, it's now next to impossible to dig out.

Once all major economies of the world will move to CBDC, businesses of payment networks like Visa or Mastercard will face extinction. Same will happen with services like Eastern Union or Moneygram or Wise. Government can then create a centralized network for international payment settlement.

Possibilities of CBDC are endless! But at the core, it's a fiat money, controlled by government.

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February 16, 2022, 07:18:07 PM
 #8

When Facebook wanted to introduce Libra, it was killed by the Congress over privacy concerns. I get it that this time it's different because it's not a private company introducing the currency, but I'm glad to see that privacy is listed as one of the biggest issues. The argument about the fees can be attractive for businesses, but I think the banking industry is very strong in the US, so they'll lobby against it a lot. After all, eliminating the fees means eliminating lots of profit the banks get. Also, if it's a prospect over 5-10 years, a lot can change within that time, and it will become more evident how popular CBDCs become or how much crypto adoption (I mean, of decentralized currencies) moves forward.

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February 17, 2022, 06:02:29 AM
 #9

The centralization of crypto brings in the trust system back in the play which makes no sense to me. If you are building something digital, just do an app like a bank app but by the government and store your dollars there and spend it from that app and nothing more. Doesn't have to be crypto, just digitally there, exactly as how I store my money in my bank account and can see it from the app.

I can use the QR code to withdraw from the ATM anytime I want, that is a mobile phone, QR reading, ATM and money all involved together without a need for cryptocurrency. That is exactly how the digital currencies will be like, nothing even close to in my mind.
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February 17, 2022, 06:35:32 AM
Last edit: February 17, 2022, 06:45:44 AM by n0ne
 #10

CBDC is completely different from the decentralised cryptocurrencies. Different reasons were stated for the need of digital dollar and a digital wallet. Will there be any supply limits on the digital dollar, if there is no limit then this will be same thing as the dollar we use through internet banking. The change can't be made immediately and within the timeline of 5-10 years of time something better will reach the market.

Whatever be the process involved, finally this will be under the control of the centralized body. Here also same thing as the banks will happen. For higher amount transaction we need to fill a lot of forms and make the transaction. So, intermediary still exists with these form of CBDC. Only advantage people get is the government backed, so any issues can be solved.

Will these CBDCs will support cross country transaction, because every country having their own CBDC needs a common platform where integration is being done.

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fiulpro
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February 17, 2022, 02:15:05 PM
 #11

Considering the challenge about privacy can we really consider the current government good with it? The feds are always after people and at the same time, most banks are interconnected causing way more trouble and if the data does not seeps in from there you are always supposed to log in on free government wifi tracking your location and everything. Privacy?? People still use Facebook and Instagram. It's not going to be a great deal, what can end up is it being the end of corruption and having things turning better. But then again the limitations of internet and phones still needs to be considered

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hugeblack
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February 17, 2022, 02:34:22 PM
 #12

Governments need commercial banks, which act like arteries in the body of the economy, pumping money to users, so the digital dollar will get rid of all these middlemen, and if it is managed well, we may not need most of the current banks and banking applications.

It will also help governments a lot as it will be easy to confiscate money, verify it, and other things.

The user will be forced to abide by the government's conditions, otherwise his account will be frozen, which is different from what is happening now, where he can buy and sell in exchange for cash.

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pinggoki
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February 17, 2022, 03:01:21 PM
 #13

I can use the QR code to withdraw from the ATM anytime I want, that is a mobile phone, QR reading, ATM and money all involved together without a need for cryptocurrency. That is exactly how the digital currencies will be like, nothing even close to in my mind.
That might sound like a good deal but I'm telling that it's going to be the same thing as fiat, they're just trying to use the facade that it's like cryptocurrency when it's just a digital dollar that's much more convenient for them because they can pump out billions of it and they didn't have to waste their money on ink and paper for printing. CBDC is not something good because if it functions the same as fiat then you can probably expect it to fall like fiat.



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