Supercycle or Halving cycle still?

[cryptomaniac_xxx]

But I agree with @TravelMug that we are not easy to see another all time high as the gap of the price now is at $25k and it is not easy to pump the price back on the last ATH.

Not so long ago price was stuck in $3k range and people were saying the ATH ($20k at the time) is not easy to reach since it is far away. Price went out of that range and without "pumping" reached $20k and surpassed it to reach $70k ATH. Now the same story is being repeated but at a 10x size.
The thing is just because there is a pause in the rally it doesn't mean it is any harder to reach a new ATH than before.

And the same that we said before, after a new ATH at $20k, bitcoin will not go down below 5 digits, or at least $10k, but look at what happen in 2018 and during the bear market.

So it's a tit-for-tat market, or it is very unpredictable and we just go with the flow.

If we are in a bear market, then obviously the price will go down very hard. But if we are in the opposite side, then we might see 6 digits in the future.

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[SquallLeonhart]

Bitcoin always hit its ATH every after halving...

That statement is not correct, or it is too vague or needs too many qualifications to mean anything useful. End of story.

But Bitcoin always did go to a new ATH as a path to price discovery after each halving cycle. Probably because of the halving itself, and probably because of a few other circumstances, like BRRR-money printing and other inflationary policies by the Federal Reserve/Central Banks.

I do agree that whenever halving happens the price goes up after a while, however this time around that fed printing money situation impacted it a lot. It was the pandemic period and every single nation has a big inflation problem. Inflation means the prices of everything goes up, and the value of fiat goes down, when the value of fiat goes down, the value of bitcoin and other crypto goes up.

This is a simple situation where bitcoin did go up last year, but at the same time the purchasing power of it didn't really changed all that much. Looking at it right now, the start of 2022 was around 40k, and start of 2021 was around 30k, that is about 30% or so increase, with "official" numbers at 7% and probably a lot higher in reality, and A LOT higher in most nations, I can easily say that it is probably like 10% to 15% increase in reality and not 30%, that is what inflation means.

[odolvlobo]

Bitcoin always hit its ATH every after halving...

That statement is not correct, or it is too vague or needs too many qualifications to mean anything useful. End of story.

But Bitcoin always did go to a new ATH as a path to price discovery after each halving cycle. Probably because of the halving itself, and probably because of a few other circumstances, like BRRR-money printing and other inflationary policies by the Federal Reserve/Central Banks.

There is no reason to associate all-time highs with halvings. Bitcoin has repeatedly gone to new highs regardless of the halvings. The idea that the halving causes an all-time high is a self-perpetuating myth based on confirmation bias.

• The times between halvings and all-time highs have typically been very long. Only the 2012 halving was followed soon after by an all-time high.
• There is no correlation between halvings and all-time highs. There were two all-time highs between the 2012 and 2016 halvings, and two all-time highs since the 2020 halving.
• The 2011 all-time high occurred before the 2012 halving.

[magneto]

I think that there will still be a great correction due to the end of the halving cycle.

But at the same time, I think that it is quite futile to try to time the markets by buying in exactly at the market bottom - you are simply not going to be able to do that, and the long term trajectory is clearly that we are in a crypto supercycle that will continue to be bullish for the next 5-10 years.

So don't take on leverage, keep stacking, and you will be fine regardless of where the price goes.

[Wind_FURY]

Bitcoin always hit its ATH every after halving...

That statement is not correct, or it is too vague or needs too many qualifications to mean anything useful. End of story.

But Bitcoin always did go to a new ATH as a path to price discovery after each halving cycle. Probably because of the halving itself, and probably because of a few other circumstances, like BRRR-money printing and other inflationary policies by the Federal Reserve/Central Banks.

There is no reason to associate all-time highs with halvings. Bitcoin has gone repeatedly gone to new highs regardless of the halvings. The idea that the halving causes an all-time high is a self-perpetuating myth based on confirmation bias.

• The times between halvings and all-time have typically been very long. Only the 2012 halving was followed soon after by an all-time high.
• There is no correlation between halvings and all-time highs. There were two all-time highs between the 2012 and 2016 halvings, and two all-time highs since the 2020 halving.
• The 2011 all-time high occurred before the 2012 halving.

I believe that’s true, but doesn’t the halvings reduce currency issuance, ans therefore also reduce selling pressure from the issuers, in Bitcoin, the miners?

I’m not questioning, or debating you, or saying you’re wrong, merely trying to learn.

[odolvlobo]

I believe that’s true, but doesn’t the halvings reduce currency issuance, ans therefore also reduce selling pressure from the issuers, in Bitcoin, the miners?

The change is tiny. 500,000 bitcoins are traded on exchanges each day and the last halving resulted in only 900 fewer bitcoins.

Once bitcoins enter the supply, they remain in the supply. The constant increase causes a downward pressure on the price as the supply curve slides to the right. The halving only reduces that downward pressure on price and it can't explain a 10x increase in price.

[buwaytress]

Yeah I have been thinking more and more that the cycle as we know it could very well be over. A few firsts have already happened... First time the rally lasted longer than a year (by my calculations anyway) if we see now as still a yet to subside rally. First time we saw barely 3x gain of ATH to ATH.

A big move down and a failure this year to continue gains would confirm another cycle I would say.

I can wait =)

[justdimin]

I believe that’s true, but doesn’t the halvings reduce currency issuance, ans therefore also reduce selling pressure from the issuers, in Bitcoin, the miners?

The change is tiny. 500,000 bitcoins are traded on exchanges each day and the last halving resulted in only 900 fewer bitcoins.

Once bitcoins enter the supply, they remain in the supply. The constant increase causes a downward pressure on the price as the supply curve slides to the right. The halving only reduces that downward pressure on price and it can't explain a 10x increase in price.

Unfortunately it is not really that small. The difference between the traded ones and the mined ones is that when you trade there is a buyer and there is a seller, when you buy it is created out of nothing and you just sell it. So while all those thousands of bitcoins traded looks much bigger, this 900 bitcoins were created out of nothing and nearly 40 million dollars worth of bitcoin is sold every single day.

I do not mean that miners sell all they mine, sometimes they store it, but it is still coming out of zero input to the market, sure they spend energy and pollute and all that but that doesn't matter to the market. Which is why we start with negative 40 million dollars each year, and that is a very important aspect of miners creating new bitcoins.

[odolvlobo]

Unfortunately it is not really that small. The difference between the traded ones and the mined ones is that when you trade there is a buyer and there is a seller, when you buy it is created out of nothing and you just sell it.

There is no difference. When a miner sells bitcoins, they sell to a buyer. There is no way for the market to distinguish between a miner selling bitcoins and a holder selling bitcoins. They are the same in every way.

Ultimately, I think the best metric is the inflow of bitcoins to exchanges. You would expect inflows to plummet by up to 50% after a halving. However, if you look at this graph, you will see that the last two halvings had no apparent effect on the inflow of bitcoins to exchanges. Inflows actually rose after halvings.

[GreatArkansas]

I think that there will still be a great correction due to the end of the halving cycle.
+1

I'll believe more in the halving cycle, based on history. We all know how the Bitcoin block halving became significant to Bitcoin since the beginning, it is showing how Bitcoin managed to do some price actions that correlate with when it is upcoming or after bitcoin block halving.

About the supercycle, for you how you can explain it? Does supercycle have some specific numbers or how can you tell a cycle that is a supercycle?

[Wind_FURY]

I believe that’s true, but doesn’t the halvings reduce currency issuance, ans therefore also reduce selling pressure from the issuers, in Bitcoin, the miners?

The change is tiny. 500,000 bitcoins are traded on exchanges each day and the last halving resulted in only 900 fewer bitcoins.

Once bitcoins enter the supply, they remain in the supply. The constant increase causes a downward pressure on the price as the supply curve slides to the right. The halving only reduces that downward pressure on price and it can't explain a 10x increase in price.

But does KNOWING that the halvings every four years “reduce that downwards pressure on the price”, explain that it makes investors more positive about buying Bitcoin after every halving. Because the price, as seen in the chart, gives this impression.

[dezoel]

The change is tiny. 500,000 bitcoins are traded on exchanges each day and the last halving resulted in only 900 fewer bitcoins.

Once bitcoins enter the supply, they remain in the supply. The constant increase causes a downward pressure on the price as the supply curve slides to the right. The halving only reduces that downward pressure on price and it can't explain a 10x increase in price.

But does KNOWING that the halvings every four years “reduce that downwards pressure on the price”, explain that it makes investors more positive about buying Bitcoin after every halving. Because the price, as seen in the chart, gives this impression.

I do not think that it would be that weird to believe something like this. I mean 4 year cycle happened twice right now, and a third one is expected by the people as well. However, just because it has happened before doesn't mean that it will happen again, nothing is guaranteed in the crypto world and that is why it is not really that shocking to see these type of results.

I personally believe that it will not happen, the cycle seems great, halving seems to be a great reason for bitcoin to go up, but just because it happened once doesn't mean that it will happen exactly the same way it will in the future. Just to give an example, if halving was a guaranteed way of making money, everyone would buy bitcoin before the halving and that would make the price go up before halving and not afterwards since everyone would be buying. That alone is the proof that nobody believes this halving story, even if it happened before.

[odolvlobo]

Once bitcoins enter the supply, they remain in the supply. The constant increase causes a downward pressure on the price as the supply curve slides to the right. The halving only reduces that downward pressure on price and it can't explain a 10x increase in price.

But does KNOWING that the halvings every four years “reduce that downwards pressure on the price”, explain that it makes investors more positive about buying Bitcoin after every halving. Because the price, as seen in the chart, gives this impression.

People know the effect of the halving long before the halving actually occurs. If that is the cause then you would see the effect before the halving. Interestingly, Litecoin does show this effect. In both Litecoin halvings, the price rose sharply until just prior to the halving. Then, the bubble popped and the price fell sharply, and it continued to fall after the halving.

I believe that the actual causes of the Bitcoin bubbles are similar, but more general. News about the halvings or other events generates interest and promotes speculation, which which feeds on itself and slowly evolves into a bubble.

Finally, if we attribute the bubbles to what people believe about the supply and not the supply itself, then the bubbles have little to do with money supply and everything to do with demand.

[South Park]

Bitcoin always hit its ATH every after halving which we can expect its price to go up just like in 2017 and it also recurs this year. But after the next year, we also experience the bear market which is also cycling every after the bull market.

The adoption this year had made the new generations wake up learning how to invest and trade to make money in the crypto market. More Bitcoin holders are coming. The question that arises now is whether we will still be experiencing the bull market cycle every halving and then bear after it or will this be a supercycle like they are saying that the prices will continue to go up disregarding the fud spreading the industry?  I hope to see this question timely because we are about to dip going to a confusing market direction.

Personally I think we are in a supercycle, now maybe I am too optimistic however when I see how the economy is performing and the low growth of it despite the huge amount of money that has been created I cannot help to think that there is still a huge potential for bitcoin to grow, after all how much time will investors wait until they finally realize the economy is not going to do as well as their projections indicate? And once they realize this simple truth then bitcoin will be an obvious alternative where they can invest their money.

[Yaunfitda]

I think that there will still be a great correction due to the end of the halving cycle.
+1

I'll believe more in the halving cycle, based on history. We all know how the Bitcoin block halving became significant to Bitcoin since the beginning, it is showing how Bitcoin managed to do some price actions that correlate with when it is upcoming or after bitcoin block halving.

About the supercycle, for you how you can explain it? Does supercycle have some specific numbers or how can you tell a cycle that is a supercycle?

Bitcoin's historical logs is fairly young, we can't say if we are in the super cyle or a new cycle or old cycle so it's hard to say.

The only thing we know is that after a halving, the price seems to reach all time high and after that we goes into a correction which turns into a bearish market. And so far this seems to be what we are seeing right now, from $69k, - a new all time high to barely $40k, so that's huge correction already.

[yhiaali3]

No one has the exact answer to this question, all that can be said is just predictions, a lot of optimistic predictions were said about a great rise in the market and a new peak for Bitcoin but nothing happened so far, 2021 was a good year for the market in general but December did not Well, there was an unexpected dump that caused bitcoin and the market to drop dramatically and shuffle all the cards, we were expected to see a bullish cycle for the market at the beginning of 2022 but now I expect it to be delayed to the second quarter at a minimum.

[SirLancelot]

The adoption this year had made the new generations wake up learning how to invest and trade to make money in the crypto market. More Bitcoin holders are coming.

Yeah, this is the reason speculators here are not expecting another bloodbath but sustaining market conditions which will get us this cycle to be an unique one. But, profit booking will definitely happen but having profit booking after 10x or 20x growth and up to 50% correction may not be a concern. Hence usual halving cycle will persist even we are having differently long duration based super cycle this time.

As of now, market is still into sideways movement; it will slowly get into supercycle but if it keeps correcting from the current price levels then we can say it would be normal halving cycle but without a 10x growth.

[Wind_FURY]

Once bitcoins enter the supply, they remain in the supply. The constant increase causes a downward pressure on the price as the supply curve slides to the right. The halving only reduces that downward pressure on price and it can't explain a 10x increase in price.

But does KNOWING that the halvings every four years “reduce that downwards pressure on the price”, explain that it makes investors more positive about buying Bitcoin after every halving. Because the price, as seen in the chart, gives this impression.

People know the effect of the halving long before the halving actually occurs. If that is the cause then you would see the effect before the halving.

I debated about that during 2020, whether the halving was priced in, or not. I said the same thing as you, but I was proven wrong  by the market. It’s the same as years 2012, and 2016. The price surged after the halving, showing everyone that it was not truly priced in.

Interestingly, Litecoin does show this effect. In both Litecoin halvings, the price rose sharply until just prior to the halving. Then, the bubble popped and the price fell sharply, and it continued to fall after the halving.

It’s probably no one really values Litecoin?

I believe that the actual causes of the Bitcoin bubbles are similar, but more general. News about the halvings or other events generates interest and promotes speculation, which which feeds on itself and slowly evolves into a bubble.

Finally, if we attribute the bubbles to what people believe about the supply and not the supply itself, then the bubbles have little to do with money supply and everything to do with demand.

But the supply itself does reduce after a halving.

[RealMalatesta]

this is the reason speculators here are not expecting another bloodbath but sustaining market conditions which will get us this cycle to be an unique one. But, profit booking will definitely happen but having profit booking after 10x or 20x growth and up to 50% correction may not be a concern. Hence usual halving cycle will persist even we are having differently long duration based super cycle this time.

As of now, market is still into sideways movement; it will slowly get into supercycle but if it keeps correcting from the current price levels then we can say it would be normal halving cycle but without a 10x growth.

I believe that speculators are trying to convince people opposite of what they actually believe. If you could convince everyone to sell and you buy afterwards, that is a good deal, if you make everyone believe it will go up and make them buy then you can sell at the top.

Speculators do not want to be right, they want to be wrong, because if they are "wrong" on their statement then they can go against what they said and make a lot of money. Otherwise we could all buy and say it will go up and if we all buy then it will really go up, that is how the market works and then we would all be making a good amount of money. That is not what they really want, that is a bit difficult to navigate.

[odolvlobo]

People know the effect of the halving long before the halving actually occurs. If that is the cause then you would see the effect before the halving.

I debated about that during 2020, whether the halving was priced in, or not. I said the same thing as you, but I was proven wrong  by the market. It’s the same as years 2012, and 2016. The price surged after the halving, showing everyone that it was not truly priced in.

As I have already documented, the price surged after a halving only in 2012 (and then again a year later). Other surges were not until at least a year after a halving. Also, people ignore that the 2011 price surge was before the 2012 halving. Furthermore, the price had risen significantly before each halving. How is that not evidence that the halving was "priced in"? The surges later do not disprove it.

Interestingly, Litecoin does show this effect. In both Litecoin halvings, the price rose sharply until just prior to the halving. Then, the bubble popped and the price fell sharply, and it continued to fall after the halving.

It’s probably no one really values Litecoin?

That is not true of course, but it shouldn't matter either way. I think that it shows that speculation is much more of a factor in Litecoin because the effect was so strong.

I believe that the actual causes of the Bitcoin bubbles are similar, but more general. News about the halvings or other events generates interest and promotes speculation, which which feeds on itself and slowly evolves into a bubble.
Finally, if we attribute the bubbles to what people believe about the supply and not the supply itself, then the bubbles have little to do with money supply and everything to do with demand.

But the supply itself does reduce after a halving.

Not true. The supply is always increasing toward 21 million before, during, and after a halving. Inflows to exchanges increased after the last two halvings. Supply is not reduced by a halving no matter how you measure it.