Supercycle or Halving cycle still?

[bittraffic]

Bitcoin always hit its ATH every after halving which we can expect its price to go up just like in 2017 and it also recurs this year. But after the next year, we also experience the bear market which is also cycling every after the bull market.

The adoption this year had made the new generations wake up learning how to invest and trade to make money in the crypto market. More Bitcoin holders are coming. The question that arises now is whether we will still be experiencing the bull market cycle every halving and then bear after it or will this be a supercycle like they are saying that the prices will continue to go up disregarding the fud spreading the industry?  I hope to see this question timely because we are about to dip going to a confusing market direction.

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[Yaunfitda]

I for one tends to believed that we might see a super cycle, but after seeing what goes this December? Which historically is a good month, I don't think we will like 2 super cycle or bull runs.

We might see the repeating cycle of every 4 years and it can still holds true this bulls/bears in 2021. So again, everyone should be prepared as we might experienced a bearish cycle already, just saying.

[mk4]

This year was definitely better than the last, but in the end — only time will tell. I don't think this year is going to be the mythical "supercycle" whereas we wouldn't have like 70-90% drawdowns again because there's still just so much money on useless cryptocurrencies, but I wouldn't say it's impossible.

[Mauser]

Not sure if the halving cycle is going to continue like that. The biggest drops came from the first three hangings, but now the majority of Bitcoin's are already mined. The amount of btc miners get is very small now, which means that the price can't drop too low, otherwise mining won't be profitable anymore. All the large mining farms have a certain minium price for electricity, hardware and Internet. So if BTC ever drops too low we wouldn't see any new coins coming to the market. That is why the halving cycle should be not so dominant anymore.

[boyptc]

Bitcoin always hit its ATH every after halving which we can expect its price to go up just like in 2017 and it also recurs this year. But after the next year, we also experience the bear market which is also cycling every after the bull market.

The adoption this year had made the new generations wake up learning how to invest and trade to make money in the crypto market. More Bitcoin holders are coming. The question that arises now is whether we will still be experiencing the bull market cycle every halving and then bear after it or will this be a supercycle like they are saying that the prices will continue to go up disregarding the fud spreading the industry?  I hope to see this question timely because we are about to dip going to a confusing market direction.

Nobody knows that for sure.

We can only see it happen once it happens. The supercycle they say, we all want that to see and make 2022 a continuity of the bull run that has happened since last year.

But it's also worrisome that a bear market would follow this bull run. We really don't know.

[pooya87]

he question that arises now is whether we will still be experiencing the bull market cycle every halving and then bear after it or will this be a supercycle like they are saying that the prices will continue to go up disregarding the fud spreading the industry?

Price continuing to go up has nothing to do with the supercycle. In fact one indication of the end of such cycles is if price continues to go up but at a slower pace.

For example take previous cycle. We had about 13000% rise in that whole cycle. In comparison in this cycle we only had a much smaller 2100% rise. To repeat the same cycle (that includes the big bear market) price needs to first rise up as much (which means reaching $400k+) in a very short time (like 3 months for example) then the bubble blows up and we enter the bear market.
If price stops the big rises here and instead we start seeing a much slower rise and a price like $400k is reached in a year then the "cycle" will have ended successfully.

Keep in mind that FUD and other online nonsense doesn't affect the long term projection. They just create chaos in short term.

[so98nn]

This year was definitely better than the last, but in the end — only time will tell. I don't think this year is going to be the mythical "supercycle" whereas we wouldn't have like 70-90% drawdowns again because there's still just so much money on useless cryptocurrencies, but I wouldn't say it's impossible.

Yes while reading the op I was thinking about the so called altcoin money. More specifically the money which is getting injected into meme coins and NFT also. Moreover recently we are seeing spikes on the meta verse end also so it’s really gonna be hard to say confidently that bitcoin will get more holders. Peeps here want quick money, they do not want to hold for longer periods because they are either into quick business or just don’t have the patience.

I mean it’s worth thinking why invest in bitcoin if they are getting same profits over short period of time. The risk and stuff is another discussion but meanwhile it is actually happening.

Sure, the halving cause some drift, the question is how much ?

[mk4]

Not sure if the halving cycle is going to continue like that. The biggest drops came from the first three hangings, but now the majority of Bitcoin's are already mined. The amount of btc miners get is very small now, which means that the price can't drop too low, otherwise mining won't be profitable anymore. All the large mining farms have a certain minium price for electricity, hardware and Internet. So if BTC ever drops too low we wouldn't see any new coins coming to the market. That is why the halving cycle should be not so dominant anymore.

Obviously most of the dumping doesn't necessarily need to be from miners, they could definitely mostly be from retail buyers who don't know what they're doing and just joined the hype. And once the hype dies down, newbie retail buyers dump their coins because it's crashing à la domino effect.

[SquirrelJulietGarden]

Bitcoin always hit its ATH every after halving which we can expect its price to go up just like in 2017 and it also recurs this year. But after the next year, we also experience the bear market which is also cycling every after the bull market.

Bitcoin already hits multiple new all time highs after its halving in May 2020. It is just its current all time high which is around $69k does not satisfy investors and speculators. If all of us believe that Bitcoin will hit $100k soon, it might not hit it soon. When we all give up such dream, Bitcoin will touch it.

The adoption this year had made the new generations wake up learning how to invest and trade to make money in the crypto market. More Bitcoin holders are coming. The question that arises now is whether we will still be experiencing the bull market cycle every halving and then bear after it or will this be a supercycle like they are saying that the prices will continue to go up disregarding the fud spreading the industry?  I hope to see this question timely because we are about to dip going to a confusing market direction.

Adoption is exponentially increasing and we are witnessing more big tech companies engage more into crypto. Governments gradually have to admit advances of Blockchain technology so that we might have massive adoption, growth and legal tenders globally.

About cycle, I believe we are still in a super cycle that might reach its peak in next 4 years. After that we might have a serious correction on big scale for a superb cycle.

[hyudien]

The question that arises now is whether we will still be experiencing the bull market cycle every halving and then bear after it or will this be a supercycle like they are saying that the prices will continue to go up disregarding the fud spreading the industry?  I hope to see this question timely because we are about to dip going to a confusing market direction.

This could have happened so rapidly without even having to wait every half year. The market that is now in front of our eyes is no longer a market that has been stagnant and has remained silent for longer. Received a bit of bad news, the price immediately corrected, even more sensitive than we thought. Bitcoin must indeed be separated from Fud which is often claimed by state leaders, institutions or even influencers on behalf of the biggest Bitcoin holders. The fact is we can't avoid it. Prices are relatively volatile but also recover more quickly. With a cycle like this, the price of Bitcoin will not fall too deep, because they also need Bitcoin to store value. It can be seen that when the Bitcoin market is correcting, there will be a group of whales ready to make a profit. Instantly a significant increase occurred again. The $45,000+ price tag is the most common price for Bitcoin right now.

[Upgrade00]

The question that arises now is whether we will still be experiencing the bull market cycle every halving and then bear after it or will this be a supercycle like they are saying that the prices will continue to go up disregarding the fud spreading the industry?

When you say 'we will still', are you asking if that will be the case in this current market cycle or if it will continue to occur for years to come? For the latter, I'll say no, the Bitcoin market is changing rapidly over the years, volatility is gradually reducing, meaning there's less price spikes and dips. A market cycle where the price bubbles up and then bursts leading to a bear period would not always be the case, but we could rather have gradual growth, which will disinterest a lot of speculators, but will open the door to more use cases for Bitcoin.

I hope to see this question timely because we are about to dip going to a confusing market direction.

What makes you think the market is about to dip?

[bittraffic]

The question that arises now is whether we will still be experiencing the bull market cycle every halving and then bear after it or will this be a supercycle like they are saying that the prices will continue to go up disregarding the fud spreading the industry?

When you say 'we will still', are you asking if that will be the case in this current market cycle or if it will continue to occur for years to come? For the latter, I'll say no, the Bitcoin market is changing rapidly over the years, volatility is gradually reducing, meaning there's less price spikes and dips. A market cycle where the price bubbles up and then bursts leading to a bear period would not always be the case, but we could rather have gradual growth, which will disinterest a lot of speculators, but will open the door to more use cases for Bitcoin.

I hope to see this question timely because we are about to dip going to a confusing market direction.

What makes you think the market is about to dip?

Well if you are in the long-term chart like in the weekly, you can see the RSI indicates it hasn't yet dropped to its bottom 30. And it can only mean that it will have to go to that point before going up. AS of the moment, the situation was just like in the month of May-July this year where the price move sideways around $30K-$35K.
If it has to bounce up again, it could be in January 2022. We however still could consider it a bubble as it had not dipped to its bottom yet.

The only reason I could site that is hasn't gone too low is because more institutional investors are putting thier money on in crypto due to the FED situation. But if the big investors decide to dump because they know it has to come to the bottom before going up again, we'll be going bear for months when a la domino effect happens.

Will we see a bounce like it did in mid-July?

[pieppiep]

I am sure we will still face the bear and the bull in the next years because that will be part of the cryptocurrency. The problem is how those new generations will be ready for that time as they don't have much experience like the others who already have crypto experience. If they want to learn more details about crypto and know that the bull and the bear will be on the crypto, they will not be afraid instead will try to figure out how they can use the moment for their benefit. The key is to survive in any situation and conditions because the crypto market will always be volatile.

[hatshepsut93]

Supercycle is a narrative created by bulls to instigate FOMO. It's not realistic to think that Bitcoin can go only up for really long periods of time, because practice shows that Bitcoin market tends to always drop when the upward momentum gets lost, and I just don't see how this would change in the near future. You would need a continuous streak of positive news to fuel such cycle, a new large company or a country buying Bitcoin every week - this is not going to happen.

[DeathAngel]

I think we’ll still see the usual significant price rise post halving for another 1 or 2 cycles (assuming this cycle & high at 69k is over).
Once each block rewards miners with less than 1BTC we might start to see a reduction in the effect that the diminishing supply has on bitcoin. I think another 8+ years before this happens. The halving in 2024 will still create a supply shock & bull run in 2025.

[aoluain]

What exactly is a supercycle though?

Is it that the market constantly rises? or is it that there wont be a notable
prolonged Bear market?

Its really hard to call whether we will stay in this halving cycle or whether we
are in a supercycle, maybe if we were hovering around the ₱100,000k now I
would be leaning towards a supercycle ... but we are not near the $100,000
mark yet...

[Kemarit]

What exactly is a supercycle though?

Is it that the market constantly rises? or is it that there wont be a notable
prolonged Bear market?

I'm leaning toward the former in my understanding, a supercycle of bullish run, and somewhat just months of bearish and then the price will continue to go on again.

Its really hard to call whether we will stay in this halving cycle or whether we
are in a supercycle, maybe if we were hovering around the ₱100,000k now I
would be leaning towards a supercycle ... but we are not near the $100,000
mark yet...

The market is still like 10 years old, data is very young and we can't extrapolate anything from it.

We just rely on the last halving and it's subsequent bull run in 2017. Sure it might have been repeating itself every 4 years, But we can't still say and we can't predict how this run will go next year.

[Obito]

If the demand continues to go up and there's a lot of people buying or wanting to buy bitcoin then there's a possibility that we might see a supercycle happening but I don't think that we might see that honestly because the market can't just continue going up as it's bad for itself and for potential investors.

[yazher]

The good thing about it is when the price reached a new ATH and begins to decrease after that, it won't back to the time when the price was before the halving. Right now the price has never been down to under $20,000 which is good since when the market keeps holding on whenever the price is decreasing. Because investors are following the tradition when the price of BTC is experiencing a bearish market, only a matter of days for it to recover and regain its price back. so when they see people invest again in the deep, others will follow, and there you go, successfully recovered the price again.

[Wind_FURY]

OP, a SUPER CYCLE. Open a weekly chart, use Bitstamp, it has the longest historical record of Bitcoin. Choose 200 Simple Moving Average as an indicator. If Bitcoin crashes under that indicator and never returns after a significant amount of time, then the current super cycle is broken.