2022 Diff thread.

[philipma1957]

If it's not that much of a bother,

It is, but can't say no to an old friend who so happens to be a fellow, optimistic miner.

can you quote some prices for the s19s series, used ones?

Here are some randomly picked offers for today

Used

S19 95th $1800 > usa
S19 pro 21$/th > usa
S19 95t $1650 > China

New

S19 90th $1650 > hk
S19pro 100T  &1800 > hk

Oh, and what I mean about prices is not the one people are asking for, if you have some information on the price at which gear is actually bought, not staying 6 months in a warehouse waiting, I need to do a little planning.

Hard to tell at which prices people are buying, judging by the verification process that goes on some of those groups where people report successful deals, there doesn't seem to be much of action even at these prices, also by looking at the last item listed you would have probably come to the same conclusion, some sellers are selling cheaper than Bitmain, so they bought those $1900 deals with a 30% discount which is $1,330 + the coupon value which is roughly 30% of face value so 1330+ 171 = $1501 and they want to make an easy $300 profit.

Mind you, some folks in the U.S would still get that deal knowing that the seller secured an easy $300 profit, you know why? because most of those Chinese resellers will declare the shipment at a ridiculously low price (like $200 per gear) and then trump tax becomes almost nothing, so, 1800+50$ tax + shipping vs $1501 + 475

1,976+ shipping for a direct bitmain purchase.
1,850+ shipping through those resellers.

In fact, one of the suppliers I used to deal with told me they can deliver mining gear to the U.S at almost zero tax, don't ask me how because I don't know, but I am pretty sure they have their ways, this explains why in most cases U.S small miners are better off buying from U.S resellers who deal with those Chinese to re-route the shipment and trick the law.

Well my package legit buy from bitmain with KYC is now held in customs since friday.

package was due yesterday.

they want a number which i can see bitmain gave to them.

since I have a copy of the invoice.

which matches the last six invoices and is fully correct.

still waiting for customs to formally send the request for the info they already have.

so much for obeying rules.

I will contact fedex again in the afternoon and ask for the ability to send the, the info they want which they already have.

truly annoying.

[1713282040]

1713282040

[mikeywith]

Well my package legit buy from bitmain with KYC is now held in customs since friday.
package was due yesterday.
so much for obeying rules.

Better safe than sorry, products getting stuck in customs isn't unpopular worldwide, I had a similar issue before with bitmain back in 2018-2019, they lost my 2*L3s package, DHL said they wouldn't answer any of my questions since the package was "owned" by Bitmain and that Bitmain should contact them, Bitmain, on the other hand, told me to go read the terms which state "once the miner is shipped, ownership is transferred to the buyer and we are not responsible for anything that could happen".

So I had to go through a dozen emails and calls, turns out DHL mistakenly sent the miner to an address somewhere in Europe, got stuck in customs or something like that, and took way too long to get finally, probably the gear lost half of its value by then, so ya, that's a part of the game we play, I hope you get your S19 pro soon.

[philipma1957]

miner is released and should arrive on wednesday.

[NotFuzzyWarm]

miner is released and should arrive on wednesday.

Heh, at least there are better odds of decent components (of all kinds) being used in it. It seems the Chinese have found a great market for um, questionable, grey-market chips & such...
https://www.theregister.com/2022/10/18/russia_china_semiconductro_failure_rates/
Probably a boomin' business for the dumpster divers & counterfeiters that supply said parts to the resellers  

[philipma1957]

miner is released and should arrive on wednesday.

Heh, at least there are better odds of decent components (of all kinds) being used in it. It seems the Chinese have found a great market for grey-market chips & such...
https://www.theregister.com/2022/10/18/russia_china_semiconductro_failure_rates/
Probably a boomin' business for the dumpster divers & counterfeiters that supply said parts to the resellers  

Well not a big fan of bitmain but it is 29 watts a th and with a 30% coupon to use on next unit. I will get a decent bump in hash.

100+100 + 200th

and  one of my clients is getting 426th of which I get 10% to manage it.

so I am adding 200 + 42th = 242th and I am getting a 75th Avon so we soon add 317t to my pile.

total farm will pass 2ph for btc

and some alt gear will be running.

We will be buying more btc gear in another month or two.

Maybe we get to 2ph + .8ph = 2.8ph by Jan 1

[mikeywith]

miner is released and should arrive on wednesday.

That's good news, I think you will still get it earlier than what you initially thought despite the delay in customs because they shipped it out in less than a month contrary to the agreement.

Do you plan to run custom firmware on it or just stock settings? I think the upside of buying Bitmain over other brands is the ability to tune the miner, I see people report 24w/th on the S19 pro with underclock settings, 5w/th saving could make a huge difference in the price tanks at some point.

https://www.theregister.com/2022/10/18/russia_china_semiconductro_failure_rates/
Probably a boomin' business for the dumpster divers & counterfeiters that supply said parts to the resellers  

I would take any news that comes with political sauce with a grain of salt.

[philipma1957]

miner is released and should arrive on wednesday.

That's good news, I think you will still get it earlier than what you initially thought despite the delay in customs because they shipped it out in less than a month contrary to the agreement.

Do you plan to run custom firmware on it or just stock settings? I think the upside of buying Bitmain over other brands is the ability to tune the miner, I see people report 24w/th on the S19 pro with underclock settings, 5w/th saving could make a huge difference in the price tanks at some point.

https://www.theregister.com/2022/10/18/russia_china_semiconductro_failure_rates/
Probably a boomin' business for the dumpster divers & counterfeiters that supply said parts to the resellers  

I would take any news that comes with political sauce with a grain of salt.

We are getting a total of 5 s19's this week and one later with the 30% off coupon.

I will certainly try one on braiins it a 100th and 2950 watts can be 90th and 2250 watts it suits us better.

The main mine room is small and very hard to cool. Our issue always is heat and space not cheap power.
The second room has space and extra power but the main power box is 75 years old and need full replacement.
So in the next 2-3 months adding very efficient gear is a must.

So basically even though we could eventually expand to over 600kwatts it is not happening anytime soon.

[stompix]

https://www.theregister.com/2022/10/18/russia_china_semiconductro_failure_rates/
Probably a boomin' business for the dumpster divers & counterfeiters that supply said parts to the resellers  

I would take any news that comes with political sauce with a grain of salt.

I find it weird for the Russians to say (a ru newspaper is the source) that, normally they would say everything is running well and smooth.
https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/5619160
Although I wonder if those rates are not because of the normal failure in Chinese chips  (don't find this 40% rate plausible at all) but driven by companies who abuse their power as only left suppliers and trick their Russian counterparts since they know they can get away with it.

But anyhow, this won't affect us, miners, at all, don't think that Bitmain will do us a favor and lower prices just because they can sell a few of their faulty chips, we're still talking about a company that charged just a few months a go 5x times the price for a piece of hardware, probably close to a 900% profit rate for every gear.
4 days left, hovering at 4%, so again quite a serious pace up, I wonder if we hit 300exa by the end of November.
254 currently, 4% means 10 more exa, 36 left,  so another 13.5% next tie and we're there!

And thanks for the numbers, now I have all that's need to start from, all I need is to find the time and mood to think about what I need to do, and this is a pain in the ass, I don't feel like doing plans when I know the results won't be pleasing at all and mining at a loss is not something I'm going to do, ever!

[mikeywith]

normally they would say everything is running well and smooth.

That sounds to me more like the western style of news.

And thanks for the numbers, now I have all that's need to start from, all I need is to find the time and mood to think about what I need to do, and this is a pain in the ass, I don't feel like doing plans when I know the results won't be pleasing at all and mining at a loss is not something I'm going to do, ever!

No problem man, anytime, especially in the few coming months since I started real shopping and I check prices almost every day, the first batch I got for this discount season was 1PH worth of Whatsminer M21s, at a price slightly below 8$/th, with shipping + accounting for difficulty spikes and a moderate failure rate, they should ROI in 6 months, which I can't say I am totally happy about given that we are in a bear market and ROI should be like half that period, but here we are months into the bear market and things don't seem to go as bad/good as they did in the previous bear market, so I will slowly increase my hashrate in the next coming months and hopefully the average cost/profit ratio will be good.

And please, don't mine at a loss, it's annoying when people say I mine at a 30% loss because I know BTC will be worth 10 times more in 4 years, come on! where is the logic?

[stompix]

And please, don't mine at a loss, it's annoying when people say I mine at a 30% loss because I know BTC will be worth 10 times more in 4 years, come on! where is the logic?

Not planning on and I can't understand people who advocate for it.

It does make sense for businesses that have paid rent in advance, that have already electricity contracts and which are looking at bigger losses if they stop mining that shutting down, that is understandable, we've been there during the last '09 crisis where we kept the shop opened for a year at a loss because we already paid the rent, and if we extract that from the equation the shop was profitable.
But for hobby miners, like people that are still mining altcoins with their GPUs at a loss and not even counting the depreciation of the card, it's simply beyond my understanding, rather than mining 2$ worth of altcoins spending 3$ just sell the same card and buy $600 upfront!

at a price slightly below 8$/th, with shipping + accounting for difficulty spikes and a moderate failure rate, they should ROI in 6 months,

 

[philipma1957]

My fedex package finally is moving out of Alaska and may show tomorrow.

I picked up 4 s19 pros today local seller.
3 x 110t pro they do 336t at advertised watts
1 x   96t pro model J which is longer and has more chips it does 107t not 96 t and at advertised watts.

so I thought these would do 330 + 96 = 426 but they are doing 336 + 107 = 443 which is nice.

the 100t comes tomorrow so 443+100 = 543t buysolar is tossing in 73 t so over 616t getting added and a 30% coupon to be spent at a later date

I could get 7 s19 95t units locally  if I want them as soon as monday, but I think I will wait just a bit.

[philipma1957]

https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator…

Latest Block:   760007  (9 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   103.6707%  (1992 / 1921.47 expected, 70.53 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   31360548173144.85                            
Current Difficulty:   35610794164371.65                            
Next Difficulty:   between 36933148475874 and 36933342872076
Next Difficulty Change:   between +3.7134% and +3.7139%
Previous Retarget:   October 10, 2022 at 6:50 AM  (+13.5528%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Today at 6:56 PM  (in 0d 3h 51m 30s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Today at 6:56 PM  (in 0d 3h 51m 36s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 12h 6m 11s and 13d 12h 6m 17s
Copy stats to clipboard

..

So 3.6 to 3.8%

jump in 3 -5 hours time

price is near 19k

Guess things are sideways for now price ways.

I wonder if we follow this jump with 4% or more next jump.

[mikeywith]

So 3.6 to 3.8%

It was 3.4%, not bad, it seems like we are slowing down a little, large players will eventually run out of space and gears, not sure when i think pretty close.

[philipma1957]

under a days time so too early to know the trend downwards is real.

We are done adding 5x s19 pros and 1 ⅔ s17 pro to the mine.

just about 600 th which gets us back to 1.9 ph our original all time high. Local guy on Long Island has a shop about 3 miles away from my dementia suffering bro in law.

So my 1 to 2 visits a month to him mean I can do some some btc work with vms cloud.

Its funny warehouse business took off so fucking much that out ware owner is pressed for space.  meaning we may need to get an ant box to fill.

have to see how we unfold the next few months.

I spent hours driving back and forth today pretty freaking tired.

lets go btc rally to the moon.

[stompix]

If is the reverso epoch of the previous one, and again it will start with a ridiculously changed pace and despite everything it will keep it up like this through two weeks, ending with an even bigger than -10% drop and almost erasing all the last gains I'm going to join philip and shout manipulation too!

I can understand that at the start of the month suddenly a few thousand or a few tens of thousands of gear get immediately turned on as it's a new month, deliveries, new electricity prices, no more demand for power on same levels in the US, but if this drop materializes, no, no way in hell you can explain it, I refuse from the start to even try it, unless there is one huge farm that caught fire or some other ban somewhere else, don't even know who is left on the possible ban list to make such a dent.

Latest Block:   760253  (2 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   91.0855%  (222 / 243.73 expected, 21.73 behind)
Next Difficulty Change:   between -8.7854% and -1.9650%

Just one and a half day and now, despite my track record of perfect loss I will say it loud and clear, this will not last!
So, ... expect a drop!

But if you want something else that makes also almost no sense, this just popped in my news feed:
https://bitcoinmagazine.com/business/investors-are-flocking-to-bitcoin-mining
INVESTORS ARE CIRCLING BITCOIN MINERS  < the moment I read it I imagined that vulture from WB cartoons

While some mining teams are suffering the throes of a bear market, a growing cohort of investors see opportunity. Some of these investors are brand new to the mining industry. For example, Maple Finance — a decentralized finance team primarily focused on Ethereum and Solana, according to its website — launched a $300 million fully-collateralized lending pool targeting struggling bitcoin miners who need more capital. Peter Thiel also recently led a $3.7 million seed round for Block Green, a new lending protocol also targeting miners who need to access more capital.
Some of the investors accumulating funds to target the mining industry are substantially more experienced. Binance announced a $500 million fund to support distressed bitcoin mining teams. This monstrous crypto conglomerate currently operates the world’s fourth-largest bitcoin mining pool in addition to the world’s largest exchange platform. Jihan Wu, the bitcoin tycoon who co-founded Bitmain, also announced plans for a $250 million fund to buy distressed mining assets.
~
In total, over $1 billion from these public announcements alone is sitting on the sidelines waiting to lend to or invest in distressed mining operations.

There is simply no end to these VC style investments, they seem totally focused on running this business into the ground or at least 3-4 cents per Th/s above grass level.
 

[philipma1957]

If is the reverso epoch of the previous one, and again it will start with a ridiculously changed pace and despite everything it will keep it up like this through two weeks, ending with an even bigger than -10% drop and almost erasing all the last gains I'm going to join philip and shout manipulation too!

I can understand that at the start of the month suddenly a few thousand or a few tens of thousands of gear get immediately turned on as it's a new month, deliveries, new electricity prices, no more demand for power on same levels in the US, but if this drop materializes, no, no way in hell you can explain it, I refuse from the start to even try it, unless there is one huge farm that caught fire or some other ban somewhere else, don't even know who is left on the possible ban list to make such a dent.

Latest Block:   760253  (2 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   91.0855%  (222 / 243.73 expected, 21.73 behind)
Next Difficulty Change:   between -8.7854% and -1.9650%

Just one and a half day and now, despite my track record of perfect loss I will say it loud and clear, this will not last!
So, ... expect a drop!

But if you want something else that makes also almost no sense, this just popped in my news feed:
https://bitcoinmagazine.com/business/investors-are-flocking-to-bitcoin-mining
INVESTORS ARE CIRCLING BITCOIN MINERS  < the moment I read it I imagined that vulture from WB cartoons

While some mining teams are suffering the throes of a bear market, a growing cohort of investors see opportunity. Some of these investors are brand new to the mining industry. For example, Maple Finance — a decentralized finance team primarily focused on Ethereum and Solana, according to its website — launched a $300 million fully-collateralized lending pool targeting struggling bitcoin miners who need more capital. Peter Thiel also recently led a $3.7 million seed round for Block Green, a new lending protocol also targeting miners who need to access more capital.
Some of the investors accumulating funds to target the mining industry are substantially more experienced. Binance announced a $500 million fund to support distressed bitcoin mining teams. This monstrous crypto conglomerate currently operates the world’s fourth-largest bitcoin mining pool in addition to the world’s largest exchange platform. Jihan Wu, the bitcoin tycoon who co-founded Bitmain, also announced plans for a $250 million fund to buy distressed mining assets.
~
In total, over $1 billion from these public announcements alone is sitting on the sidelines waiting to lend to or invest in distressed mining operations.

There is simply no end to these VC style investments, they seem totally focused on running this business into the ground or at least 3-4 cents per Th/s above grass level.
 

now you see the light 


my s17 pro's do

42 low
52 normal
59 turbo


my s19 pro with brains do 80th to 115th


this is the manipulation of hash which is easy peasy to do.

[mikeywith]

There is simply no end to these VC style investments, they seem totally focused on running this business into the ground or at least 3-4 cents per Th/s above grass level.
 

How so does the landing works exactly? you lend me x amount of money using my mining gears as collateral? and then if difficulty goes up or bitcoin prices go down (or both which is even worse) I get a margin call and pass you all my miners? if it's not my miners that you want to accept as collateral then what else do I have to offer you? I don't seem to get the logic here, perhaps someone can enlighten me.

[NotFuzzyWarm]

I don't seem to get the logic here, perhaps someone can enlighten me.

to me it is very reminiscent of the telecom bubble mania in the `80s. Too many whales with money to burn - sorry, 'invest' - who love to churn their money and who *may* have a smattering of real knowledge regarding the tech they are investing in. aka investing in high-risk ventures and all the while right from the start also having an exit plan in place so they can at least cash out if (when) things take a down turn.

Point 1 is of course ride the hype and suck in scads of smaller investors (investards) so the founders can start getting back *their* money through salary, bonuses only they get, etc...

Point 2 is heavily leverage the supposed worth of said companies assets to invest even more and draw in even more investards.

Point 3 is cultivate potential buyers to sell to or rather too often, move ownership to. Considering that often the original whales actually control said companies, well the opportunity for shuffling around money, taking tax write offs for 'bad investments', etc abound.

[philipma1957]

A lot of times tax laws will dictate investment decisions.

Last year we sank a ton of money back into the business to get tax breaks for 2021.

Now some may have had a profit in business a this year.

so what to do with the profits?  buy gear

startup this year takes a loss.  use the loss against profits from business a

no tax for 2022. in 2023  mining takes off sell gear at a profit.

use profit from business b in a startup business c.

[stompix]

~

now you see the light 

Yeah, I can see it, but it's burning red, it seems hot as hell, it smells like it and I can see some horned ones dancing around it.

How so does the landing works exactly? you lend me x amount of money using my mining gears as collateral? and then if difficulty goes up or bitcoin prices go down (or both which is even worse) I get a margin call and pass you all my miners? if it's not my miners that you want to accept as collateral then what else do I have to offer you? I don't seem to get the logic here, perhaps someone can enlighten me.

On top of what Philip and NotFuzzyWarm said, I don't know about the others but with the Binance loan deal, it seems something like a loanshark pawnshop combination with the worse of the worse, so it's not just about taxes but securing a position in which they almost can't lose but also gain a lot.
Setting aside the 10% interest rate it seems like the sum is just credit for the operation, so you don't get a full stash of banknotes upfront you get a credit line from which you might spend 1$ or 100k each month but you pay on total, they have your gears as collateral, and you must secure this with crypto on top of, I assume they will appreciate gear value at 25% of used market price, plus, and this is the cherry on top, you'll be forced to mine at the own pool, so from here I can guess the next step is a lock on all your earnings to secure that credit line.

From what transpired right now it's more of a bankruptcy procedure than a loan even on paper.