2022 Diff thread.

[philipma1957]

https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator

...

Latest Block:   719674  (4 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   109.5234%  (1979 / 1806.92 expected, 172.08 ahead)
Previous Difficulty:   24272331996979.97                            
Current Difficulty:   24371874614345.62                            
Next Difficulty:   between 26698893272628 and 26699752260173
Next Difficulty Change:   between +9.5480% and +9.5515%
Previous Retarget:   January 8, 2022 at 2:40 AM  (+0.4101%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Today at 9:28 PM  (in 0d 5h 37m 49s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Today at 9:28 PM  (in 0d 5h 38m 25s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 12d 18h 47m 1s and 12d 18h 47m 36s


...

ugh 5 hours or so and damn it is almost 10%

a 10% jump is around 17eh

or  165 s19pro j at 104 = 17160th = 17.160ph
     1650 s19pro j at 104 = 171,600th = 171.60 ph
     16500  s19pro j at 104 = 1,716,000th = 1716.0ph or 1.716 eh


     165000 s19pro j at 104 = 17,160,000th = 17160ph or 17.16 eh


so 165,000 s19s came online. this is 561 megawatts of power

and it is more than 1,815,000,000 at retail price of 11k

if you think wholesale is 8k it would be 1,320,000,000 a lot of fucking cash.

[1713973802]

1713973802

[1713973802]

1713973802

[1713973802]

1713973802

[stompix]

In the long run the 200Exa is a big deal and hopefully good as it means investment in mining.

I fail to see the good part when it comes to my own mining revenue.
It's like having a 100 sq. ft shop in the middle of a small town and seeing how right in front of you a Walmart and a CostCo are getting built, and your side is the one where it's hard to make a turn to enter the parking lot.
One more tiny push and we're below 20 cents/TH, one tweet with some bad news and that's it.

17 Exa, damn! I see no big movement from Mara when it comes to pool hashrate but Foundry is just getting bigger and bigger, too bad we have no info who's mining with them since they claim are focusing on large miners alone. Dying of curiosity!

[alh]

So we are now well past the old epoch and into the new one. While I am always a bit uncertain about precise value from cryptothis, I think the overall picture is pretty clear:

Latest Block:   719739  (21 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   85.7374%  (28 / 32.66 expected, 4.66 behind)
Previous Difficulty:   24272331996979.97                           
Current Difficulty:   26643185256535.46                           
Next Difficulty:   between 22925065731274 and 26524517891055
Next Difficulty Change:   between -13.9552% and -0.4454%
Previous Retarget:   Yesterday at 9:07 PM  (+9.7677%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   February 3, 2022 at 10:39 PM  (in 13d 20h 5m 55s)
Next Retarget (latest):   February 6, 2022 at 5:00 AM  (in 16d 2h 27m 5s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 1h 32m 30s and 16d 7h 53m 39s

As I interpret the numbers, it looks to me like we took about a 9.7% increase in difficulty. This is in line with the way it's been trending for days. As I read the difficulty number, it's also a new All Time High for difficulty. Unfortunately, the price BTC dropped winthin the last several hours since I last looked. It's now at: $39,113. Looks like Mr. Fuzzy and I are both underwater on our last trades.

I am hoping that somebody with more reliable skills on this (e.g. kano) will come along with an improvement or complete refutation of what I have stated. Overall, not a great day for many miners (big or small IMHO).

P.S. I will also add that I always chuckle when I see the difficulty number with FOURTEEN digits to the left of the decimal point, and two digits to the right of the decimal point. The term "significant digits" comes to mind and I don't understand why those two digits to the right could possibly matter. Perhaps somebody could educate me.

[NotFuzzyWarm]

It's now at: $39,113. Looks like Mr. Fuzzy and I are both underwater on our last trades.

meh. Actually I just did another small buy @ 38.25k.
Considering I have no need to sell any in the near future it all works fer me. I have utter faith that we'll at least go back above the 42k mark and no doubt will shoot far higher than that. The eternal question is of course: When?

Worse comes to worse if prices are still down *when* I do sell some I can always use the the loss as a capital gains tax loss.

[mikeywith]

Russia is hammering bitcoin at the exact right/worst time, if the ban proposal is accepted and applied it will bring the difficulty down, if it will be just vapor then it has just caused a price drop and will not affect the hashrate by much.

With that being said, some of those large players will likely start to migrate elsewhere just in case a sudden ban is activated, the migration process should take sometime and might at least just slow down the rise caused by the large U.S players. Interesting times ahead to say the least.

[wndsnb]

Where's the mass hysteria and crash in gear prices!? S19 is still $100/TH ... that's 22.7 months to ROI at 5c power.

Well, I guess even if gear prices don't budge, if the price stays like this for any period of time the hosting market is going to have to open up some, right? Will the hosts be able to find people to pay $100/th and pay >8c? ... that's >2 year ROI.

[philipma1957]

Where's the mass hysteria and crash in gear prices!? S19 is still $100/TH ... that's 22.7 months to ROI at 5c power.

Well, I guess even if gear prices don't budge, if the price stays like this for any period of time the hosting market is going to have to open up some, right? Will the hosts be able to find people to pay $100/th and pay >8c? ... that's >2 year ROI.

It 2018 they cracked on prices points and every did a fire sale of gear.

We are not there yet. But creeping closer and closer to there.

[Saskfarmer]

I've been watching gear futures on some groups and they have definitely started to fade.  Buying HAS to be pulling back hard right now.
BTC dumped through another support and I don't think its anywhere near the bottom to really shake out the weak hands.   I'm on .04c power and thinking DAMN.   

[stompix]

Where's the mass hysteria and crash in gear prices!?

In December 2021, Riot executed additional purchase orders totaling $301 million with Bitmain Technologies Limited (“Bitmain”) for an additional 27,000 of their latest miner model S19XP (140 TH/s), with an anticipated delivery and deployment schedule set for July 2022 through December 2022

Why should they lower the price? They have clients till the end of 2022 and even mid 2023, some that paid in advance at full price,  would you sell your stuff cheaper if your factory is booked at least on 80% capacity for a year and you sell stuff with a 80% profit margin?

Now for the funny part, a few days ago I was discussing with a friend about cloud mining, even bought that ina topic around here and I was checking bitdeer plans.
Unfortunately, I didn't archive that damn page at that time but for the plans, static revenue rate was around:

~30% for the Cheetah F9 Plan  
~15% for the Antminer S17 Plan

Now it's 3.78% for the first and, a loss for the second one.
Any buyers?  

[Saskfarmer]

I’ve seen March futures at 81/TH.  BTC hits the 20K’s we’ll start to see shit happen.

[mikeywith]

Where's the mass hysteria and crash in gear prices!? S19 is still $100/TH ... that's 22.7 months to ROI at 5c power.

Gear prices did loosen up a bit recently, but nothing close to their ROI/profitability in both fiat and BTC, but this is pretty normal, it has always been the case, gear prices go up very fast when the ROI goes down, but the opposite takes a lot longer, I still remember that right after the halving nothing has changed despite the fact that profitability was cut by half immediately, it took about 2 months for prices to adjust accordingly.

Now compared to when prices were at +60k, profitability is below 50% given the difficulty increments, but for gear prices to fall 50% we will need to remain in this region or go to worse places for months, but then you have all those pre-orders and Bitmain does not seem to be in a rush to sell gears at much lower prices, so this time around things can be very different because of the big boys that joined the games, they make all the old Chinese mining whales seem like small fish in a huge ocean.

One scenario I see possibility coming is that some of the larger players go bankrupt if prices don't rebound, all of those big players paid a premium for gears that they have yet to receive, their investors will want some return on the billions of dollars they threw at mining gears, and since we all know that BTC price can stay low for a year or so, some of those players will have a very rough time, also the selling pressure from miners will increase which will make things even worse for everybody, especially those that have yet to receive enough gears to use the infrastructure which did cost them millions and millions.

With that being said, I personally doubt we enter a prolonged bear market, this massive correction wave will be over soon and prices will rebound, with that being said, since BTC price is nearly 50% down and gear prices are not even 15% down, it makes exactly no sense to invest in mining gears now as opposed to buying BTC instead.

 

[philipma1957]

Where's the mass hysteria and crash in gear prices!? S19 is still $100/TH ... that's 22.7 months to ROI at 5c power.

Gear prices did loosen up a bit recently, but nothing close to their ROI/profitability in both fiat and BTC, but this is pretty normal, it has always been the case, gear prices go up very fast when the ROI goes down, but the opposite takes a lot longer, I still remember that right after the halving nothing has changed despite the fact that profitability was cut by half immediately, it took about 2 months for prices to adjust accordingly.

Now compared to when prices were at +60k, profitability is below 50% given the difficulty increments, but for gear prices to fall 50% we will need to remain in this region or go to worse places for months, but then you have all those pre-orders and Bitmain does not seem to be in a rush to sell gears at much lower prices, so this time around things can be very different because of the big boys that joined the games, they make all the old Chinese mining whales seem like small fish in a huge ocean.

One scenario I see possibility coming is that some of the larger players go bankrupt if prices don't rebound, all of those big players paid a premium for gears that they have yet to receive, their investors will want some return on the billions of dollars they threw at mining gears, and since we all know that BTC price can stay low for a year or so, some of those players will have a very rough time, also the selling pressure from miners will increase which will make things even worse for everybody, especially those that have yet to receive enough gears to use the infrastructure which did cost them millions and millions.

With that being said, I personally doubt we enter a prolonged bear market, this massive correction wave will be over soon and prices will rebound, with that being said, since BTC price is nearly 50% down and gear prices are not even 15% down, it makes exactly no sense to invest in mining gears now as opposed to buying BTC instead.

 

Fuck them 900 million for 110,000 s19's let btc  drop  to 15k screw those mojo's bigly.

[mikeywith]

Fuck them 900 million for 110,000 s19's let btc  drop  to 15k screw those mojo's bigly.

I won't be sad about a drop like that as long as it teaches these major players a good lesson, I am on the safe side due to my power rate but I can see how the majotity of small miners will be forced to shutdown.

I do NOT want to see the whole mining industry controled by 4 or 5 large U.S players, the first bad thing that comes out of it would be mining only "clean blocks" by imposing sensorship of all addresses that the world police aka the U.S put some sanctions on.

[alh]

For what it's worth, it appears that BTC price has found some support at the $35K level. Hard to know how long that will last, or if it represents a "bottom". Of course if Mr. Fuzzy buys some more, it will decline further. 

Latest Block:   720128  (a minute ago)
Current Pace:   95.2027%  (417 / 438.01 expected, 21.01 behind)
Previous Difficulty:   24371874614345.62                           
Current Difficulty:   26643185256535.46                           
Next Difficulty:   between 25371790051760 and 26157023179933
Next Difficulty Change:   between -4.7719% and -1.8247%
Previous Retarget:   last Thursday at 9:07 PM  (+9.3194%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   February 4, 2022 at 3:23 AM  (in 11d 5h 16m 39s)
Next Retarget (latest):   February 4, 2022 at 2:02 PM  (in 11d 15h 55m 44s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 6h 16m 47s and 14d 16h 55m 52s

[NotFuzzyWarm]

Of course if Mr. Fuzzy buys some more, it will decline further.  

That does seem to be the pattern... Just glad to help folks be able to buy BTC at an 'affordable' price

[Heathen23]

Fuck them 900 million for 110,000 s19's let btc  drop  to 15k screw those mojo's bigly.

True that!

Assuming we are in for the long haul why should we care even if BTC goes to 10K temporarily? More buying opportunity for Fuzzy and all of us.

[stompix]

That does seem to be the pattern... Just glad to help folks be able to buy BTC at an 'affordable' price

Just don't forget to stop before it gets too affordable  I want to pay for the coffee with Bitcoin but not with one! BTC.

Price bouncing around, still not over 40k but that 32k was really scary, the difficulty seems to decline a bit, we're halfway done with this and we might see 3%, not much but it does ease a bit the pain from the drop.

Latest Block:   720677  (9 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   96.8818%  (966 / 997.09 expected, 31.09 behind)
Next Difficulty Change:   between -3.1069% and -2.2833%

A 9% increase in difficulty and a 25% drop in price was simply way too much, I was going to residential rates around Europe and in some cases you couldn't turn a profit even with an s19j, not even mentioning ROI.
How does 0.34 per kWh sound like? And that's pence, not cents, around 0.46 ¢.

[philipma1957]

That does seem to be the pattern... Just glad to help folks be able to buy BTC at an 'affordable' price

Just don't forget to stop before it gets too affordable  I want to pay for the coffee with Bitcoin but not with one! BTC.

Price bouncing around, still not over 40k but that 32k was really scary, the difficulty seems to decline a bit, we're halfway done with this and we might see 3%, not much but it does ease a bit the pain from the drop.

Latest Block:   720677  (9 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   96.8818%  (966 / 997.09 expected, 31.09 behind)
Next Difficulty Change:   between -3.1069% and -2.2833%

A 9% increase in difficulty and a 25% drop in price was simply way too much, I was going to residential rates around Europe and in some cases you couldn't turn a profit even with an s19j, not even mentioning ROI.
How does 0.34 per kWh sound like? And that's pence, not cents, around 0.46 ¢.

basically just get a stick from sidekick and maybe the apollo point to solo and pray.

[mikeywith]

How does 0.34 per kWh sound like? And that's pence, not cents, around 0.46 ¢.

Anyone with even half that power rate should not be even remotely considering mining, you got huge players with 2.5c , many folks with free power, the unlucky ones are at 10 cents, 400% more fees on top of that is just crazy, it doesn't matter what Bitcoin price will do, mining at such rates is asking for trouble.

I remember you mentioned 15 cents or something where you live, I know my memory is corrupted, but I hope you are paying those 40 something cents.

[stompix]

I remember you mentioned 15 cents or something where you live, I know my memory is corrupted, but I hope you are paying those 40 something cents.

I don't think you really wanted to say that  
Prices are all over the place here, poeple who are under some welfare program and are having less than 100kwh/m consumption are not really feeling the burn, the ones on market price and no-limits night savings are screwed.

Before taxes, I was paying 7 cents, and 15 final, now they are playing with both VAT and green certificates to bring the overall price down, so the end price at my home is now a bit over 16 cents before tax and 21c(euro)/kwh right now with all the other fees.
When it comes to mining, I'm still protected by the fact we're treated like a business, we have a prepaid consumption and we have a boost for meeting some new green investment requirements, depending on how I translate that from unused energy to the lower plan we could have fit into it's probably anywhere between 3-7 cents, again euros. Since my parents haven't yet asked to pay for the difference one could think of it as zero  , but I'm not that kind of son!