Bitcoin first week price speculation

[buwaytress]

Well, things change. And they do, quickly, without rhyme nor reason, don't they? Posted at the start of the thread that was happy to get some bumper bonus, but actually would have been way better for me to wait to invoice right about now (tomorrow would have been the last day for me to do it).

As always, hindsight is the wisdom we pine for. Of course, with my luck the bounce will take us up and beyond by the time my next invoicing arrives.

[Yaunfitda]

Well, things change. And they do, quickly, without rhyme nor reason, don't they? Posted at the start of the thread that was happy to get some bumper bonus, but actually would have been way better for me to wait to invoice right about now (tomorrow would have been the last day for me to do it).

As always, hindsight is the wisdom we pine for. Of course, with my luck the bounce will take us up and beyond by the time my next invoicing arrives.

Oh well, we all have our plans in the beginning of the year, unfortunately, for majority of us, it's kinda late because the market really turn into sour although I have been saying all along that if we didn't get past $50k at the end of 2021, we will be entering the bear market.

And I would say that you and I may have run out of luck, because it seems that we are in a bear market already as this early as the first week of January and the pattern seems to be broken in 2022.

[stompix]

In few hours away, we are entering into another year. I just read this on a news that took me to a tweet about how bitcoin price has never suffer losses in the first week of the year right from 2018 to 2021.

The moment you say that you have never seen somebody getting killed by a falling flower pot is the moment you either run from the sidewalk or you find peace with god 

Just to make sure, how do we count the first week?
First 7 days, that means price from January 1st to 7th, or first complete week starting the first Monday of the month, that is 3rd to 9th? In the first situation, we're almost done and we have an 8% drop, the second one might give us enough time to make it zero.

Again, one of those predictions that think history will repeat itself endlessly.

January is usually not the year we end up with a huge increase, it takes a while before we increase. I am guessing that spring could be the real increase, march will be the month where we slowly see some waking up, not a lot, just a small bit, then by the time April comes around we are going to see the peak, I am expecting a new ATH around those periods, and then during May it will have a small tiny correction, like maybe back to 70k or something and during summer there is a good chance we could have a crash and then try to recover that during September or October. This is usually how it is in crypto world and I do not see a reason why it should change.

Quoting this and setting a reminder!
I'm really curious how many things you'll get right from this avalanche of price movements predictions, especially with those details month on month.
By the way, how was the peak in 2020? Or was that the exception that confirmed the rule? Or 2019? Or 2018?

[ajochems]

In few hours away, we are entering into another year. I just read this on a news that took me to a tweet about how bitcoin price has never suffer losses in the first week of the year right from 2018 to 2021. Also I remembered a friend that sent me a message that want to buy bitcoin at the beginning of the year. Probably people are now having a kind of mentality for the first week of the year to be bullish. Which probably means 2022 first week might be bullish.

First week of the year effect
$BTC returns first week of:
2021 +36%
2020 +13%
2019 +7%
2018 +18%


I later had to check this using 1 day time range Japanese candle stick on an exchange. I found this to be true. I did not calculate in percentage but noticed their has truly been uptrends in the first week of the year right from 2018.

 

Likely there might be another bull market due to this, I am thinking whales, retail investors, people that fomo and other set of people are ready at the start of new year. What do you people think about this early year investment? Hopefully the market might be bullish, right?

Sometimes whales make a market change.To get a good profit for investments.Unfortunately I don't met any whales till now.It was My dream to became a whale one day with huge amount of bitcoin holding. Hope it will be real and then even I will pump the price to next level.

[Falconer]

The moment you say that you have never seen somebody getting killed by a falling flower pot is the moment you either run from the sidewalk or you find peace with god 

Just to make sure, how do we count the first week?
First 7 days, that means price from January 1st to 7th, or first complete week starting the first Monday of the month, that is 3rd to 9th? In the first situation, we're almost done and we have an 8% drop, the second one might give us enough time to make it zero.

Again, one of those predictions that think history will repeat itself endlessly.

The price correction that reached 8% in the first week of 2022 seems to emphasize to us that not all history can happen at the same time, every year is different. People must have been preparing themselves for something more while there are many eyes that are constantly looking at the price charts and hoping they can hit the green button and make a profit. But the fact that the year was different to some of the past history mentioned by OP, although not a total failure but the downturn has made the predictions weaken.

Even though the prediction is not right at the moment but we didn't miss the opportunity to buy some in the market which is currently experiencing a 6% discount in the last 24 hours. Considering the possible market recovery in the second week, buying during the correction is expected to produce decent returns.

[Fundamentals Of]

The start of the year is basically a carry-over of the past year. So buying is still the best option. The price has not yet found its bottom. We are not yet changing direction for now. The final days of 2021 are basically the same with the early days of 2022. But the year has so much promises so it is best to stack now while the price is really low. As of this posting, the price has even went as low as $43,000. Let us all stack sats as much as possible.

Although buying is a good option now, I'm just not doing it for we have yet know where the price will go. I'd be losing a good amount if I buy this time if it goes back to $40,000.

I converted my coins to BUSD already, it could be a bit late but I'm assuming this will just get worse. It's still BTC that I'm going after when the market goes bulls again. But if it's going downwards below $40000 the bear market last 2018 could recur again and not hit that $100K bull mark.

Please forgive me if I consider your actions indicative of a weak hand. I could have understood you if you think this time is not the perfect time to buy, although I still disagree, but converting to a stable coin right now? I don't think that's a wise decision. That's a decision made out of fear, if not panic. But since you are talking about the 2018 scenario, I am almost certain bad things are already running wild in your imagination.

Buying at $43,000 when the ATH is at $69,000 is not bad. Converting at $43,000 when the ATH is $69,000 is definitely bad.

Probably the wildest imaginations I've got which I have also converted a few of my altcoins to BUSD when the price was $52,000. It's a wild ride for me but I really think this is a good decision for now until I can see a better direction of where the market is really going.

Until I don't see the market bottom out. The bull already tried two times to achieve $100K through hyping the memecoins and NFTS, it's close to impossible for now the price has to come down before going up again.

Well it's your strategy. Only time can tell whether you are right or wrong. For me I don't play with the short-term price changes that much, at least not anymore. I'm done with selling when the price seems to have topped and buying when the price seems to have bottomed. I've done it in the past and achieved limited success. If I look back, I would gained much had I only focused on hodling. But the price to pay of course is the wild bumpy ride.

[traderethereum]

I won't be surprised if the btc price dump more. I'm not excited about its speed. But one thing everyone has to accept is that it will never go the same way. Of course there can be some exceptions. However, my personal opinion is that it will not move much now. It could be Bull run in March.

what goes up, comes down and vice versa.
Bitcoin broke $45K support, it's causing an unevenness in the graph. we're heading either 42K or recover some liquidity at more significant levels in next couple of hours. Correction nothing wrong with it, more persistence implies more gain.

Maybe we will head over to the $40k-$42k range level if bitcoin can not hold the price not go down for more.
In this situation, we need to be ready for anything and prepare some money to buy back Bitcoin at a low price.
In the first week of this year, we see that bitcoin is still made a correction. Even the price is going down from the first day of the New Year.
But we do not have to feel bad because we already have this experience before knowing what we need to do.
Calm down, do not panic, and you will see something you can use for yourself.

It seems to be that way though, worst case is below $40,000 within the week, ouch.

But in any case, as you have said, for those who have been seen the worst, there's no need to panic. On the contrary, if you have extra funds, take this as an opportunity to accumulate more BTC in your wallet and look for the long term.

Of course we don't want to see a long bearish market that will last for years, however, it's inevitable, but what we can do is buy a lot of Bitcoin because it is going to be very cheap.

Hopefully, that will not go happens and the price can stand to $42k for this week.
I guess those who already make a profit in USDT can use the money to prepare to place the order buy at $40k-$41k just in case if the price still goes down.
I see now that the price still has the power to hold not to go down, so, within two days, there will be good news that can help the price lift for more.
Just be sure to analyze before you buy and see your opportunity to buy at a low price and not panic.

[DU18]

Even though the prediction is not right at the moment but we didn't miss the opportunity to buy some in the market which is currently experiencing a 6% discount in the last 24 hours. Considering the possible market recovery in the second week, buying during the correction is expected to produce decent returns.

It seems that now is not a good start of the year for bitcoin, in january 2022 the bitcoin price movement is actually getting weaker and even now the price is starting to touch the $42K figure from the $46K price a few days ago, and it looks like this decline will continue, if you seeing some predictions of bitcoin analysis available today, many of them conclude that it is possible that bitcoin prices will be able to touch the $40K-$41K price level, so, I think right now better for us to see the situation first before pressing the buy button.

[onecall123]

Even though the prediction is not right at the moment but we didn't miss the opportunity to buy some in the market which is currently experiencing a 6% discount in the last 24 hours. Considering the possible market recovery in the second week, buying during the correction is expected to produce decent returns.

It seems that now is not a good start of the year for bitcoin, in january 2022 the bitcoin price movement is actually getting weaker and even now the price is starting to touch the $42K figure from the $46K price a few days ago, and it looks like this decline will continue, if you seeing some predictions of bitcoin analysis available today, many of them conclude that it is possible that bitcoin prices will be able to touch the $40K-$41K price level, so, I think right now better for us to see the situation first before pressing the buy button.

While the institutional support has broken down, Sailor has become the savior. Our last weekly closing did not result in losses of 50 Sma. This time the situation appears to be even worse, though the week hasn't ended yet. A closing below 50 sma is certainly not a good sign. That defines BTC's bull market is over, and the currency will merely chop for the rest of the year.

Take a look at the volume too, which is significantly lower now. It may not be a good idea to give buy on confirmation.

[kotajikikox]

so the end of week recorded now with a lowering value of 41,000 dollars?

while more of us a Bully about the incoming week, yet this belief is not enough for us to make it happen as the prices now is heading to Bearish market.

I Wonder what the second week speculation may?

Even though the prediction is not right at the moment but we didn't miss the opportunity to buy some in the market which is currently experiencing a 6% discount in the last 24 hours. Considering the possible market recovery in the second week, buying during the correction is expected to produce decent returns.

It seems that now is not a good start of the year for bitcoin, in january 2022 the bitcoin price movement is actually getting weaker and even now the price is starting to touch the $42K figure from the $46K price a few days ago, and it looks like this decline will continue, if you seeing some predictions of bitcoin analysis available today, many of them conclude that it is possible that bitcoin prices will be able to touch the $40K-$41K price level, so, I think right now better for us to see the situation first before pressing the buy button.

actually just like every year after the Bullish year, market runs down like this so basically we are expecting this but we tend to deny as we wanted to still see a Hyping market while since December 2021 it is already obvious where the market is heading.

[jaberwock]

First week of the year effect
$BTC returns first week of:
2021 +36%
2020 +13%
2019 +7%
2018 +18%

I guess comparing the first week alone from different years is not making any sense to me. Because, all the years in bitcoin market are not same. I mean years which are followed by halving are known for stronger bullish trend and then years after an ATH is known for stronger bearish trend.

From the above data, I am just seeing the dead cat bounce alone; for example, it is showing that we had 18% growth in 2018 January first week whereas bitcoin lost more than 80% in 2018. Hence, these are all just a "new year or festival" effect which should not be considered as a valid interpretation due to its short time frame.

[Charles-Tim]

Just to make sure, how do we count the first week?
First 7 days, that means price from January 1st to 7th, or first complete week starting the first Monday of the month, that is 3rd to 9th? In the first situation, we're almost done and we have an 8% drop, the second one might give us enough time to make it zero.

I do not know which one to use, but this has definitely failed this time around.

If using 1st to 7th January, bitcoin price opened around $46200 on the 1st of January. Today is 7th, the chance is slim or negligible that Bitcoin price will increase above that price when it's price now is around $41500.

If using 3rd to 9th January, bitcoin price increased and opened around $47700. There is nothing impossible but I do not think the price can increase from 7th at $41500 to over $47700.

Even if using 1st to 9th, I am still doubting the price can be up to $46200 on 9th.

So, I am thinking in a ways it might failed this time. But this never a reason people should sell their coins, I can see some organizations are even buying the dip while some investors would as well, even if it dip further, we can buy more, we all know that all-time-high is certain.

[Falconer]

It seems that now is not a good start of the year for bitcoin, in january 2022 the bitcoin price movement is actually getting weaker and even now the price is starting to touch the $42K figure from the $46K price a few days ago, and it looks like this decline will continue, if you seeing some predictions of bitcoin analysis available today, many of them conclude that it is possible that bitcoin prices will be able to touch the $40K-$41K price level, so, I think right now better for us to see the situation first before pressing the buy button.

People were expecting bullish, but what happened was a correction. However this situation is not entirely bad for investors especially if they like to carry out an accumulation strategy during price correction. This may not be good for those who don't like this strategy, but buying during the correction for the longer term will be good when we realize that ATH is a sure thing for the price. Of course this is not a good condition for selling, but it is much better if you consider buying every drop of it.

[Dave1]

It seems that now is not a good start of the year for bitcoin, in january 2022 the bitcoin price movement is actually getting weaker and even now the price is starting to touch the $42K figure from the $46K price a few days ago, and it looks like this decline will continue, if you seeing some predictions of bitcoin analysis available today, many of them conclude that it is possible that bitcoin prices will be able to touch the $40K-$41K price level, so, I think right now better for us to see the situation first before pressing the buy button.

People were expecting bullish, but what happened was a correction. However this situation is not entirely bad for investors especially if they like to carry out an accumulation strategy during price correction. This may not be good for those who don't like this strategy, but buying during the correction for the longer term will be good when we realize that ATH is a sure thing for the price. Of course this is not a good condition for selling, but it is much better if you consider buying every drop of it.

Oh well, everything is really speculation until we see what's going to happen. I mean when we hit new ATH, everyone is shouting for a 6 digit price in December. But that completely change with the Omicron news and investors started to panic again and sell. And now that we are in 2022 already, there is no correction, but indeed we are now in the worst bear market.

[stompix]

~

Even though the prediction is not right at the moment but we didn't miss the opportunity to buy some in the market which is currently experiencing a 6% discount in the last 24 hours. Considering the possible market recovery in the second week, buying during the correction is expected to produce decent returns.

I'm really getting bored of those "opportunities".
For real now, you had years of opportunities, you had continuous days of dumps, who the hell who is in his right mind and thinks bitcoin would continue to grow would have sufficient money on the side to buy this dip to matter to his finances while on the same time risking to stay with all that fiat in $ while missing a bullish wave?

Assume you have 80k in BTC and 20 $ on the side for investing..
Common, if you would have been a true believer and would be bullish on the price you're telling me that since November you wouldn't be out of $ from all these "opportunities"?  

Of course one could argue you're making more money in between these, so, if you're a money-printing machine that keeps getting thousands of dollars a month for investing are you going to be that cheap to wait for months for a 6% drop? This whole buying the dip, cheap coins is soooo yesterday!

However this situation is not entirely bad for investors especially if they like to carry out an accumulation strategy during price correction.

Of course, losing 8% is far better than gaining 8%, because...stuff.
Why don't you say it?
This period is the best for the ones that sold out at 68k driving the price down and can now buy with a 40% discount at the expense of those who accumulated for months!!!
That's the truth, as uncomfortable for any holder as it is, just how it's quite pissing me off sometimes when I think how easy would have been to gain 50% BTC in two months by doing the total opposite of what I was thinking is going to happen.

[bots1]

I think, in the first week or throughout January 2022, Bitcoin price movements will still experience a price correction. if you look at the price movements on the charts in the crypto market, there are indications that Bitcoin will decline in the $42,000 - $40,000 support area. However, even so, the current Bitcoin price correction can be said to be a normal thing to happen, especially when it tends to have positive sentiments.

[gabbie2010]

I think, in the first week or throughout January 2022, Bitcoin price movements will still experience a price correction. if you look at the price movements on the charts in the crypto market, there are indications that Bitcoin will decline in the $42,000 - $40,000 support area. However, even so, the current Bitcoin price correction can be said to be a normal thing to happen, especially when it tends to have positive sentiments.

The price is presently at the support between $40K to $42K, I hope the price is rejected by that support else if the support is broken, the price might likely heads to the next strong support at $30K, though the price correction unveil opportunities of buying dips, the first weeks of 2022 had witnessed a price correction which is a bit different from that of last year, however I believe no matter how far the price dipped, it will obviously bounce back based on past history of the price behavior. ("history repeats itself ")

[Jating]

I think, in the first week or throughout January 2022, Bitcoin price movements will still experience a price correction. if you look at the price movements on the charts in the crypto market, there are indications that Bitcoin will decline in the $42,000 - $40,000 support area. However, even so, the current Bitcoin price correction can be said to be a normal thing to happen, especially when it tends to have positive sentiments.

The price is presently at the support between $40K to $42K, I hope the price is rejected by that support else if the support is broken, the price might likely heads to the next strong support at $30K, though the price correction unveil opportunities of buying dips, the first weeks of 2022 had witnessed a price correction which is a bit different from that of last year, however I believe no matter how far the price dipped, it will obviously bounce back based on past history of the price behavior. ("history repeats itself ")

It's because we are in a different scenario, no more bull runs and fast rally as investors are reluctant to re-invest in the market because of the current issues of hash rate.

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/01/07/investing/bitcoin-mining-kazakhstan-protests-impact-intl-hnk/index.html

Political turmoil in Kazakhstan is hitting the country's vast bitcoin mining industry.
The Central Asian nation plunged into chaos as violent protests sparked by rising fuel prices left dozens killed and hundreds injured. As part of the mayhem, internet and telecommunications cuts have been reported nationwide — and that's having an impact on local cryptocurrency mining operations, which are among the largest in the world.

As much as we don't want any politics to affect crypto, it has put a dent on the price and we really don't know if the support will hold because of this issue or not.

[STT]

September lows or July lows to be most relevant in arresting this drop is what I'm looking for.   There's always a good reason to sell and there are alot of traders who use borrowed money and sell every friday for sure, there are fears of sharper FED policy but its not here yet and they continue to dilute the monetary base.  Its speculation, I think they are easy money for some time yet because the FED has little else as a policy or tool apparently.
    It'll find a bottom around 40k I think and then could rise back to the 50 day average, thats quite a range but Bitcoin can and has done this previously.

[mattujusuruga]

I think that in the past week, the price of bitcoin and altcoins has still experienced a sharp decline in price. even the price of bitcoin has decreased significantly where the price has dropped to the level of $41k and possibly towards $39k. Conditions like this psychologically make investors panic selling after seeing the red market. However, I am optimistic that perhaps bitcoin's return to a bull run will occur around April 2022.